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Matéria Variáveis Endógenas Variáveis exógenas 3.1. Modelo Keynesiano

Simples (MKS)

PIB real (Y):

Consumo Privado (C) Importações (Q) Impostos (T)

Investimento (I) Taxa de Juro (i) Nível Geral de Preços (P) Instrumentos de PE 3.2. _{+ I, i} P, taxa de câmbio, instrumentos de PE 3.3. Modelo IS - LM

+ taxa de câmbio _{P, instrumentos de PE} 4. Modelo AD-AS + preços

Taxa de câmbio

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Long-term growth trend Actual real GDP (-) cyclical deviation (+) cyclical deviation Cyclical fluctuations Time R ea l G D P 0

Long-term growth trend Long-term growth trend Actual real GDP Actual real GDP (-) cyclical deviation (-) cyclical deviation (+) cyclical deviation (+) cyclical deviation Cyclical fluctuations

(5)

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Consumo e Rendimento Real Disponível das Famílias (crescimento anual em %) Área Euro 1973:II - 2003:IV

Consumo Rendimento Disponível

das Famílias -3.0000 -2.0000 -1.0000 0.0000 1.0000 2.0000 3.0000 4.0000 5.0000 6.0000 7.0000 1973 Q2 1974 Q2 1975 Q2 1976 Q2 1977 Q2 1978 Q2 1979 Q2 1980 Q2 1981 Q2 1982 Q2 1983 Q2 1984 Q2 1985 Q2 1986 Q2 1987 Q2 1988 Q2 1989 Q2 1990 Q2 1991 Q2 1992 Q2 1993 Q2 1994 Q2 1995 Q2 1996 Q2 1997 Q2 1998 Q2 1999 Q2 2000 Q2 2001 Q2 2002 Q2 2003 Q2

(7)

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A´´ Figure 11.6 The multiplier (∆Y/∆G) Output D es ire d de m an d A Y Y 45° DD B A´ E DD´ Y* ∆G ∆Y 7 ? S B *UY → →→ → ^ ^ 7 ^ ? S B *UY ∆Y * ∆ Y * 7 α∆ ∆ (∆Y9∆

(14)

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( + 2 -6 ∆ 2 -6 3 > ∆Y 2 -6 Σ ∆Y =Σ ∆ ∆ ∆Y =∆ ∆Y =∆

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+ [ B *U]∆

< < < <

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0 45° Ep Y Y A Output B C Y´ The 45°diagram 0 45° 45° Y Y Y Y AA Output B B C Y´ The 45°diagram 0 45° Y Y A Output B C Y´ The 45°diagram D es ire d de m an d 0 45° 45° Y Y Y Y AA Output B B C Y´ The 45°diagram Y^^

(16)

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N Table 11.1 Years after change

1 2 3 Euro Area 1.43 1.31 0.41 UK 0.75 0.33 0.01 USA 1.05 0.49 -0.38 Canada 1.24 0.52 -0.17 Japan 1.85 1.58 -0.09

Demand Multipliers: Five Examples

The numbers represent the effect of a change in government expenditure of 1% of real GDP in 2000 and 2001 in all five regions on each economy's output (as percentage deviation from baseline)

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(20)

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General macroeconomic equilibrium

Goods

Market MarketMoney

Foreign Exchange Market Real exchange rates affect aggregate

demand Interest rates_influence

the exchange rate Interest rates affect

aggregate demand Income influences demand for money

General macroeconomic equilibrium

Goods

Market MarketMoney

Foreign Exchange Market Real exchange rates affect aggregate demand Real exchange rates affect aggregate

demand Interest rates_influence

the exchange rate Interest rates

influence the exchange rate Interest rates affect

aggregate demand Interest rates affect aggregate demand Income influences demand for money Income influences demand for money

(21)

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(23)

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(24)

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(25)

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(26)

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(27)

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(28)

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X -6 4:3 # < @

(29)

FL y1' y2' y1 y2 y Ap Ap1Ap2 i2 i1 i A ) (i Ap A Ap= + i2 i1 i IS IS' y1 = α Ap1; y2 = α Ap2; ∆y = y2 - y1= α∆Ap

y1'= α'Ap1; y2' = α' Ap2; ∆y' = y2' - y1' = α'∆Ap

∆Ap = Ap2 - Ap1

α' < α

&

0 -

3 -6

X , 6

3 α & -6 ∆ αM α^Dα

3 & & -6 < 3 &" 4 <

() 6 3 * * * -6 ; * * 3 0 * Y 7α ∆?_@ 7 ^ ? ^ α∆?_@ FN X -6 4:3 # G H< X , < ; -6 0 Y * +& > < ∆∆∆∆ 78 ∆ !# ∆ 78 ∆ 78 /> 78∆? 0 : _{E 78} _{0 6} -6 78∆∆∆∆-₁ D es ire d de m an d Output ′ DD i( ) DD i() DD Y ′ DD ′ Y Y=DD B A ′< i i A´ D es ire d de m an d Output D es ire d de m an d Output ′ DD i( ) DD i() DD Y ′ DD ′ Y Y=DD B B A ′< i i A´ In te re st ra te Output Y Y′ A IS ′ i i _Excess supply of goods C B A´ D Excess demand for goods In te re st ra te Output In te re st ra te Output Y Y′ A IS IS ′ i i _Excess supply of goods C B B A´ D Excess demand for goods !

/

&

0 -

3 -6

^ Y 7

(30)

FO ! " "

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K / 0 → > " +0 0 → ! ! → > ∆∆∆∆- ₇₈ _∆?_!# _∆? ₇₈ _∆? _∆? ₇₈ _(> ₇₈ _∆ ₀ _: _{E 78} _{0 6} -6 78∆∆∆∆ 1 (> 78∆?_{! 8}_∆?_{C 78}_∆+ _(> " # * % , : , (G + * 0 +0 -6 4:3 0 % . C 3 0 : 0 * 0 : 3 0 +0 -6 4:3 0

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(31)

K +_Y d +_C +_Ep (…) +_{Y (2)} (…) -_i+_Ap +_{Ep EPBS} -_{inv. stocks (Iu>0)} +_Produção +_{Y (1)}

q (α) c (α) t (α) a b (dAp/di) +Q -_Ep (…) -_{Y (3)} (…) Exemplos:

1. Quanto menor b (sensibilidade do investimento à tx. de juro), menor o ajustamento do produto necessário ao restabelecimento do eqº no mercado de B&S (já que menor será o aumento de Ap);

2. Quanto maior a tx. de imposto (t), menor o ajustamento do produto necessário ao restabelecimento do eqº no mercado de B&S (já que menor será o aumento de Yd e de Y(2), consequentemente);

3. Quanto maior a sensibilidade das importações ao nível de rendimento (q), menor o ajustamento do produto necessário ao restabelecimento do eqº no mercado de B&S (já que -_{Y (3) será superior em valor absoluto}_);

Maior a inclinação da IS X 0 . ()

&

0 -

3 -6

K () M 3 * * * -6 ; < $ a ` Z * 8 ` YZ ₈ ` $ 0 8 ( + < `@ 8 # `Z 8 $ (/ $ D es ire d de m an d Output ( ) DD G ,i′ B A DD′ ′ Y Y=DD ( ) DD G,i DD Y D es ire d de m an d Output ( ) DD G ,i( ′) DD G ,i′ B A DD′ ′ Y DD′ ′ Y Y=DD ( ) DD G,i DD Y In te re st ra te Output Y Y′ IS´ i A IS B In te re st ra te Output Y YY′′ IS´ IS´ i A IS B B @^# @# Y 7 #$ % # &%

/

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0 -

3 -6

(32)

K

:

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3 -6

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/

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3 -6

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(33)

KF 2 !R"!%9 # #6 ' -6 * & 3 9 ' -6 * 2 !1#M $ 0 -. 78 ( , () # R 01! #3 + * ! #M -6 * & 3 3 Q -6 0 3 ; & 78 ( , () # R 0!-#3 , , () ! #M 0 0 +* 3 G 4 H ; ; -. & < ! # 3 - -. Q ) # . 4 + $4 & < "= R 0 ! #3# 7 # 0 1 7 "= / () % !R#6

R " R01! #& !-#& 3& +JR " R C1 Q " !89Q#!R C1# !89Q#R& C=;& Q=;

:

3

3 -6

KK

Elasticities of real money demand

Short run Long run Short run Long run Belgium 0.06 0.41 -0.50 -3.57 Denmark 0.27 1.67 -0.30 -1.88 Finland 0.64 1.13 -0.77 -1.57 France 0.10 0.36 -0.19 -0.70 Germany 0.35 1.19 -0.53 -1.83 Greece 0.16 1.25 -0.13 -1.00 Ireland 0.07 1.48 -0.45 -9.00 Italy 0.11 1.88 -0.31 -5.17 Netherlands 0.41 0.71 -0.86 -1.51 Norway 0.09 1.74 -0.23 -4.60 Portugal 0.18 0.95 -0.51 -2.68 Sweden 0.49 1.40 Switzerland 0.04 0.36 -0.79 -7.18 UK 0.12 1.70 -0.43 -6.14 Japan 0.05 1.76 -0.44 -6.29 USA 0.06 1.18 -0.12 -2.40 Unweighted avg. 1.20 -3.70 Real income Nominal interest rate

short run = adjustment within one quarter, long run=complete adjustment Elasticities of real money demand

short run = adjustment within one quarter, long run=complete adjustment

/

(34)

KL /7 [-8 ); X 3 # ; Z # Z /7 [-I 33 ; X ; 3 X Z 3 cN# cK# >

:

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; KN . !% 9 # P \ A # -6 -. : < /& 3 0 -. 4 W * & M 0 T + -. E / 6 " 4 0 1 < : < ! -6 & ? -6 -. : 7 % ! B # @. " & : > ! # -. 78 , B, + 7 & % "% " &" # # B * : & >! ( * - 6 3 $ ( 7 ( # > ! &" . 6 % 9 " % 9

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(35)

KO (Rx₎ (∆+_Rx₎ (∆+_Rl₎ _(Rl ) (∆+_DB) Novos Depósitos Sector Monetário

FUGA para circulação

FUGA para reservas Crédito concedido (∆+_CI)

(∆−_Rx

)

Sector Não Monetário

Reservas excedentárias

Reservas legais (+operacionais e/ou segurança)

Liquidação Circulação Monetária (∆+_C) () % @ (G % B

:

3

3 -6

L

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3 -6

B , R%6 4 4 " ' 6 0 1 * 4 B ! ## +0 - 0 :0 $14 !% 9 " R# X -6 : + M !% 9 # " R!1& # Y h k L P M h 1 i hi -kY L P M + − = + =

(36)

L Real money stock Y Y′ Output LM i i ′ i Y,i c ( , ) L ′ Y ,i c ( , ) L ′ i M P Real money supply A B Excess demand for money C C B A N om in al n te re st ra te N om in al n te re st ra te Real money stock Y Y′ Output LM i i ′ i Y,i c ( , ) L ′ Y ,i c ( , ) L ′ i M P Real money supply A B B Excess demand for money C C C C B B A A N om in al n te re st ra te N om in al n te re st ra te %9 @ @%9 9(# B - , R% X -6 : 4:3 M

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(37)

L X , , #$ % X , + #$ % #$ % #$ % #$ % . * . . ( , U

:

3

3 -6

L= X , = ; Y9 8 # -6 Y< M ∆∆∆∆ 1 78 ∆? )78 ( 78∆∆∆∆ 78∆? * & ( 0 -6 # * +& # $ ' : 0 # * # 9Y - Q $ ' "# * # 9

/

:

3

3 -6

(38)

LF #$ % # &% ( -6 M -. 0 :0 $14 4 a $ ` D 78 ` D ∆;D # 9( 8 ( + < ` 9( 8

:

3

3 -6

LK $M $14 3 Z . ( $ 78 / 5 & * +& 9 + # $ ' 0 : 3 +0 78∆?_# _: _$ _' ₇₈_∆? )!R%F# Real money stock Output A M P Y Y′ B A LM´ i i D= Y,i cL( , ) Real money supply LM B D= Y´,i cL( , ) N om in al n te re st ra te N om in al n te re st ra te c _c Real money stock Output A M P Y Y′ B A LM´ i i D= Y,i cL( , ) Real money supply LM B D= Y´,i cL( , ) N om in al n te re st ra te N om in al n te re st ra te c _c Output A M P Y YY′′ B A LM´ LM´ i i D= Y,i cL( , ) Real money supply LM B D= Y´,i cL( , ) D= Y´,i cL( , ) N om in al n te re st ra te N om in al n te re st ra te c _c 9(#

/

:

3

3 -6

(39)

LL

:

3

3 -6

2 -6 7 : 3 : 3 5 () 7 M % S * $ b 0 * " + 3 W 7 1 0 * 0 > 4 0 # 20 M 3 $ +0 3 # Y 0 0 < $ ' ; & Y# 3 4 1 * 3 $ 3 * 3 $ ' # 0 -6 # 2 ? s s _M PY P M Y V = = LN

/

* +&

3 -.

1

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(40)

LO * +& @ + 4 & 3 ; i LM Y (PIB) IS A YA iA ( 9/) /> / 9() /> / 9() (> ( 9/) (>

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(41)

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(42)

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( +

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/

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:

(43)

NF

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:

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(44)

NL /7 [-WM ); 33 3 ; e ; T ! 0 2 ! 0

( +

:

NN /7 [-^M ); 33 Z ; Z 3 cF > @ 0 4

/

( +

-3 f 4

(45)

NO

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& 7 ?&7 # , & %D

9 7 ;→∞ R% Q ' & N Q 'O Ed * " < O /7 [-YM 33 3 , f; X ; 3 ;→∞ g Z 0 ;7 / ( +

(46)

-O

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(47)

O ) $ ' & $ 1 :0 Q I N Q 'OM $ ' 6 & $ 5 3 - + 78 3 & -. $ ' ;→∞ R% Q ' 1$ $ & 7 h(T OOO =# 7 F I O N = % . 'M 6 " +0 & $ $ ' # 0 # > ( + & -6 G HM h(T " O O= / ( + & -6 G HM h(T " O ( + /- [ ) :$ 3 : & G ; * H< O= = # I X+0 $ 0 0 78 + $ 1 4 0 < ( $[ ! & -6 ( (/ $ 0 < -. $ ' -. +0 J& 0 * >! * + (J& -6 +0 J& 1 = 4 -6< * >! h(T 0 3 -6 * # 3 # 3 0 3 -6< $ 0 3 -6 3 $ $ ' # & 3 : ( 0 6 -6 h(Y # $ -.

(48)

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(49)

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(50)

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(51)

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(52)

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* +& & M $ % & 7e^ IZ7 XIZ

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(53)

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(54)

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(55)

O 6 & 0 6 & 0 6 + "0 M 7 U 5 7 \ . +, ! . # /40 6 * * &' 0 + 0 $ % & /& 6 0 -6 0 -6 3 $ % &

4 % &

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(56)

5 7 \ . + /40 &' 0 + $ % & /& - 3 $ 4 # 0 & T # $ $ 3 $ -. 1 # 'M J J J/ ! ) B # < ; != ;# J/ ! B # = ; !< ;#

4 % &

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5 7 \ . + ! J# $ M > ! ? > ! ? > , 6 : D @%$9 % 78 ( 6 -6 T# < & 0 & 0 -6 B ! ( T 2TX & 78 * +& $ " M 6 : # 1 D ( & 0 Q # 0 0 -6 0 -6 \ . + 5 , 7B,

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(57)

) $ % & 4 $ % & + \ ( ) $ % & # 0 $ ' & =

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Índice de Preços do Exterior Índice de Preços Doméstico

=

f

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(58)

F ( & M 6 " +0 - $ 3 0 6 - : # $ % & M T $ % & 7 ( - 0 - 4 ^7 $ % & 3 T

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K $ % & -6 -4 # $ ∆∆∆∆ 9 "∆∆∆∆ F9 F ∆∆∆∆ 9 ∆∆∆∆ .₉._"∆∆∆∆ F9 F _(π(π −−−− ππππ(π _(π .)))) () ! #M 0 * 4 78 0 -6 T 9 4 0 3 -6 " 3 Q $ X () ! () #M 0 & * 4 78 0 -6 T 9 4 0 3 -6 $ 3 Q "

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(59)

L T # 6 $ + $ 1 $ % & < + \ . , " $ % & & 0 + # 0 + 4 f " $ 2 " _` ! F9 ## if 7 78 " # 4 4 # - 0 < + \ . , " $ % & & # 0 4 $ + M F " _' F# i 7

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(60)

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) $

% &

&

(61)

-/7 ^-^6 I Z T $ ; Z $; 4 Z 3 ; X # OL B = : 3 M T M 0 -. ^ 4 0 -. 78 $ % & ^ 3 & -f f _P Pe e P P e ' ' = =

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(62)

/7 ^-[6 T Z 33 0 $; 4 Z 3 ; X # OL B =

% &

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(63)

F $ % & * +&

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(64)

L ^# . & # 3 ! # ' G H & $ C # 3 0 6 3 # # $ > -X"& ! # ' G H 3 -. * # 1 0 4 X + $ # 0 + $ # B > -3 6 : X"& ) $ % & 0 N -. ! # 3 * # 4 # # G3 HM 4 0 0 -6 3 W 4 W $ W 4" 0 $ $ 0 & ; 0 E 4 $ 0 * 3 3 -6 " 3 -6 $ # 4# , + \ , . ' -. 0 T X T 0 & + ! ## ( / ) B ) $ % & # 0 $ ' ) $ % & 0

(65)

O 0 T 0 0 0 # T & T 3 Q 4 -6 X _T 0 T 0 0 0 # 3 T & T 3 Q 4 -6 _T ) $ % & 0 X * G 0 H 0 0 [ X 3 $ ' + $ 3 M . " = ._# ₀ _{T 6} ₀ 0 T & - -6 X _T < ._# ₀ ₆ ₀ 0 & ⇔ 3 T & - -6 T ) $ % & # 0 $ ' , $ 0 0

(66)

X * G 0 H 0 0 [ X $ 0 * Q 0 -6 $ % & # !∆∆∆∆ F#M + , () ! () # T# 0 T 0 # () . , ! ## $ ' $ W $ 0 * Q 0 -6 $ % & # G 0 H 0 0 : 3 $ ' , $ 0 0 -6 $ ' " $ % & 3 M X 4 X ) 0 0 $ . * 4 1 0 4 $ . 4 3 ) $ % & # 0 $ ' , $ 0 0

(67)

% . ( +0 # 5 % " 5 %$ 0 T 6 . ! 0 4W $ ' M 7 3 $ M 8 3₇₈ _- _{+ 78} -0 " 78 -6 & + 0 " 78↓ & = & % . # 0 3 M + * 6 " . T M 4 0 + < " . _{!∆∆∆∆} _F_# ! 6 $ & 4 Q & + 78 6 $ 3 - 4 3 0 : -6 0 & 4 78 " . ( / ) B " J * +& 1 >( & 3 >( 1 Q $ ' # # * # G () 9 () %$ ) $ % & # 0 $ ' &

(68)

F T # 0 4W $ ' " 3 0 4W 3_M * 6 6 3 " G 6 * H 3 * # ≠ 3_# 9 + 3 Z # & . # ) Q + * X 6 & K ) $ % & # 0 $ ' X 6 & / 6 7 # * " 4 & $ ' # M 0 * 4 * ≠ 3 ₎ ₎ , : ) 4# ) & & . + * . # * 0 6 6 6 3 0 4 $ '

(69)

L 3 & 4 6 # & * $ ! 9 & 4 78 -6 0 W 3 + + 3 * +& $ ( & / ! ) B # # ' # 1 >( >( 1 # * # G () 9 () %$ & ! " # # . & : < 9 & 4 3 & 0 78 -6 0 W 3 + + 6 3 * +& $ ( " J 1 >( >( 1 # * # G () 9 () %$ X 6 & N R Q " ;M ' & -. Y# * 4 # "M > ! ? > ! ? > , 6 : 7 T * # . * +& & " " . _{∆ ^ 7 #} . 3 # >(7 Q ' ! Q 7 () . & R /# 9& $ ; >(7 :0 9"3 $ T M @ K # G> ! H 7 > ! ? > , 6 : ) $ % & # 0 $ ' X 6 # & * +& $ ∞ = > ,

(70)

O T -6 . # ; >( 7 () , M 1# -. > ! ? > ! 78 ;0 "3 $ >(7 # : > , 6 : # '# B 9& $ ; >( 7 :0 9"3 $ T # # 6 " 3 * 3 0 # 1$ : -6 & 3 T M @ K # G> ! H 7 > ! ? > , 6 : X 6 # & * +& $ > , 8 = ) $ % & # 0 $ ' X 6 # & * +& $ In te re st ra te In te re st ra te Output >( 7 In te re st ra te In te re st ra te Output >( 7 if Financial integration line Financial integration line In te re st ra te In te re st ra te Output ,

& 3 & ( 3 &

>( 8

>( 8 >( 8

>( D

>( D >( D

(71)

) $ % & 4 $ % & ) $ % & & -) $ % & # 0 $ ' % -R% = + ! . & "; Q ' # \ . +, $ & 3 -6 \ . + j $ X : )! # " k F 78 & 3 -6 & & 4 6 ! . & "; , # \ . +, $ 0 I X \ . + $ + -6 & @

(72)

= : ' 3 + 1 + 1 ! . & "; Q ' # \ . + & . +, & 3 -6 78 F + 7 ! F## F 7 # 0 ( " -6 0 > # $ &" E 0" 0 / + " * 3 $ ' 78 ._" . @ == T+0 4 - 3 $ + j0 -6 - -. ^ # # * +& 1 >(M >! ?>, 6 : 7 > ! 7 A B C 7 A $ B C ? * Y ? * 5$# * # * 8 > , 6 : 7 7 ^ ? ' 3 ₇ _{? '5'}_{8 #} ∆ ^ 7 & 3 M * +& M ∩∩∩∩

* +& $ M 7 3 _>(7 _& ₃ _& _{# ,}

& , 4 ( * & & , ( ∞ = = di dK _j > , 7

(73)

=F ( * & , 4 i LM Y (PIB) IS A YA 3 LIF

(BP=0 sob perfeita mobilidade de capitais)

=K & B ' ( + * & , % -/ 7 i LM’ Y (PIB) IS’ B YB i f _LIF IS LM YD YC iB C D

(74)

=L / * +& ! ∩∩∩∩ R%# $ ' ( > >#Y> ># = ._{- !}_{∆∆∆∆ F# # ∆ ^ 7} X T 3 0 & ) () T 4 % & 3 $ # & >! * 0 3 3 & ! F " F# />! $ 3 0 6 0 ! % % S$X %$## 3 M R%→→→→ R%F 0 -6 >! & 3 + " # * -6 T 4 Q -6 $ $ 6 -6 T 1 →→→→ 1 ( + * & , , 4# !% & 3 $ =N / * +& ! ∩∩ R%#∩∩ $ ' ( > >#Y> ># = .- !∆∆∆∆ F## ∆ ^ 7 X T 3 0 & ) () T 4 % & 3 3 $+0 # 6 ;: * * 0 -6 & () . , "= () . , # & - 3 $ 78 , $ 78∆ A C 78 ∆ M →→→→ F ( 0 + " X# * $ $ 6 -6 T 1 →→→→ 1X & B ' ( + * & , , 4# !% & 3 $+0

(75)

=O

/ * +& ! ∩∩∩∩ R%# $ ' ( > >#Y>

># = ._{- !}_{∆∆∆∆ F# # ∆ ^ 7}

X T 3 0 &

) ()

& %$ & . , &

* " \ . * ^ :$ -6< * " \ . + # ': * & " 3 - 0 * $ % & & T/) M * & $ - 3 -6 & # 6 4 3 * & 6 0 5 $ 0 -. 4 * # 3 ' # ; 4 % & 3 $ ( + * & , , 4# > 3 -6 F

\ . + 6 + J S & ' & R & Z \ 2

& ( + :

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

% B A $ / a . i f LIF (BP=0) In te re st ra te LM IS A

Monetary policy under fixed exchange rates

LM´ Output In te re st ra te LM IS A

Monetary policy under fixed exchange rates

LM´ LM´

(76)

F ∆∆∆∆ % $# 0 -6 E M / >! ! ( + & ' -6 R%→→ R%F→→ / # ∆∆∆∆- _∆?_{# <} ._{- !}_{∆∆∆∆ F# ∆∆∆∆}++++_? ∆ 0 4 + $ ∆? T 2TX T ! ( 78 / T 78 ! < ;& A. + # 6 -6 T ) ∆∆∆∆- _F ,A 6 % %$ S$X % 0 F 0 -6 >! * $ 6 ∆ ^# # * & 0 -6 T D -6 R%F→→→→ R% !∆∆∆∆ & ∆∆∆∆-_1#& _→_→_→_→;

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

F B A . ' \ . + 78 G H + 1 M 6 " +0 4 # % ( & ( 3 & -6 + : 0 W + & + : OOL ON # ZJ > OON OO 4 0 ; I 3 & ( + :

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

(77)

F

i

f In te re st ra te

LM

IS

B

LM´

A

i

f

_´

Note: M will fall _{due to forex (ME)}

sales by central bank. Output > . : B + ! +J& XDD % # ! ) , #

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

F= W 3 Q + : $ $# X )! M $# ' . "= ∆∆∆∆ Z578 XDD< Z5 - !∆∆∆∆ F# 78 ( 6 -6 X 78 />! X 0" M ! ( X 2TX IZ 78∆ X 78 R%→→→→ R%F 5 ) ' "= 5 ) X ! ) , # & % & 3 $ # 6 6 ; * $ > B -. $ ' 6 Q $ ' " # # . A 7 JJJ# & ( + :

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

(78)

FF

i

f _{LIF (BP=0)} In te re st ra te

LM

IS

A

Monetary policy under flexible exchange rates

IS´

C

LM´

B

Exchange rate depreciates increasing the demand for goods. Output

\ . +, 6 + J& A & ( & 5 Z & \ 2

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

FK ∆∆∆∆ % $# 0 -6 E M />! ! ( + & ' -6 R%→→→→ R%F / # ∆∆∆∆- _∆?_{# <} ._{- !}_{∆∆∆∆ F# ∆∆∆∆}++++_? ∆ 0 4 + $ ∆? T 2TX T ! ( 78 / T 78 ! < ;& A. + # 6 -6 T ) ∆∆∆∆- _F -6 3 0 T ⇔ () . , %$# & - 3 $ ∆∆∆∆ ! - ## # 7 Q , + M → → → → F " 14 < # →→;→→ ∆∆∆∆ 1 3 3 ; % Q ! - # () D & ( + :

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

(79)

FL B . B ! B+ # \ . . +, , . + \ 2 l 0 + $ # # ' -. & 44 ; 4;& ( + : % & 3 ( + & # 0 -6 % & 3 $ <

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

FN

i

f In te re st ra te

LM

IS

C

A

i

f

_´

Output

IS´

> . : B + ! +J& D, Z5# ! ) 7 , # & ( + :

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

(80)

FO W 3 Q + : $ $# 3 IZ M $# >! 3 ∆∆∆∆-_% Z5 ( # ∆? IZ ∆ ∆∆∆∆ Z5 D< Z5- !∆∆∆∆ F# >( 1 D 78 ( 6 -6 () . , %$⇔ -6 3 0 T# & - 3 $ ∆∆∆∆ ! - ## # 7 Q , + M → →→ → F&>( 1 → 5 ) ' + ) A ! ) 7 , # & % & 3 # -. + * ) : + * A , ,(

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

K ( + : $ # $ 1 2 # ± Fm 0 X X #± Fm + ( . , "= * " \ . * $ % & B+ () "= * " \ . + # ': * & " 3 - 0 * $ % & & & ( + :

( +

*

& ,

&

3 -6

(81)

K

Demand disturbances under fixed exchange rates

Financial integration line In te re st ra te

LM

IS

A

IS´

Output

C

B

LM´

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

3 K $∆∆∆∆ →→→→ F ∆?_Y ∆? ) ( # ∆? ∆ ∆? ₀ ₄ _$ T ∆?_X T ! ( T 2TX 78 ( T 78 ! = ;& B, + # 6 -6 T ) ∆∆∆∆++++ _F ,A 6 S$X %$ % % 0 F 0 -6 >! * $ 6 ∆? _^# _# _* & 0 -6 T 8 -6 R%→→→→ R%F !∆∆∆∆-_&∆∆∆∆ 1#& →_→_→→; & ( +

/-( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

(82)

K ( . B ! B+ # \ . + & 0 Q 0 -6 & E "= > B ! . A 7 JJJ# ∆∆∆∆ ∆? _(...) _{∆∆∆∆ 1} _∆? ) ( # ∆? ∆∆∆∆- &∆∆∆∆- ∆ ∆∆∆∆-₁ ₃ _f ₄ _J& _& 0 R /& . ` 7 A 3 3 ;

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $

K= 3 Financial integration line In te re st ra te

LM

IS

A

Demand disturbances under flexible exchange rates

B

IS´

Output

C

(i) (ii) & ( +

/-( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

(83)

KF $∆∆∆∆ →→→→ F ∆?_Y _∆? ) ( # ∆? ∆ ∆? ₀ ₄ $ T ∆?_X T ! ( T 2TX 78 ( T 78 ! = ;& B, + # 6 -6 T ) ∆∆∆∆++++ _F -6 3 0 T ⇔ () . , %$# & - 3 $ ∆∆∆∆-_{! -} _## _# _, ₊ _M F→→→→ 14 < # →→→→; ∆∆∆∆−−−−₁ X () ! - # Q D

( +

*

& ,

% &

3 $+0

KK ( A . ' \ . ∆∆∆∆ ∆? (...) ∆∆∆∆ 1 ∆? ) ( # ∆? >(8 ∆? ^ ∆∆∆∆-_! _- _# ∆ ∆∆∆∆-_1M _` ₇ ₊ _{4 0} J& & $ & ,# 3 f 4 " & A C 3 3 ; 78 & Y & W G "3 4" H & ( +

/-( +

*

& ,

% &

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(84)

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(87)

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