Document de travail de la série
Etudes et Documents
Ec 2005.07
Environmental impacts of international trade:
the case of industrial emission of Sulfur Dioxide (SO
2)
in Chinese provinces
Jie HE
CERDI Université d’Auvergne 65 Boulevard de F. Mitterrand 63000 Clermont-Ferrand France Tel: 00.33.4.73.17.74.23 Fax: 00.33.4.73.17.74.28 Email: Jie.HE@u-clermont1.fr (Feb 2005) 34 p.!
"
"
"
"
#
"
"
$ %
"
"
!
$
&
"
' (
&
"
"
)
*
!
+
*
+
*
+
"
,
"
"
-
"
.
.
!
/
-
"
-
-(
"
0
0' 22
-%
/
'
"
-
-%1
3
4
-
%1
" 2 2
4
4!
%1
" 2
4
5
6
5
"
6
! -
1
-!
"
.
-
!
/
"
-
" '
"
"
5
'
6
"
!
"
"
'
"
'
7
! "
#
$%!!&
''%(
#
-
-%1
)
*
+
,
"
,
8
%
!
%!-.
"
,
/01
%'2
%!.'
&32
%!!'
4
"
5 # 4
''&
6'2 $ 7 ''8( "
"
9
"
:
"
4
4
%!!'
"
;&
"
"
<
1
4
$<14(
=
,
5
>
"
>
,
/
$%!!3(
)
*
,
9
?
,
"
$ ''&(
7
,
$?
%!.&+
@
A
%!!'
A
%!!-(
4
)
*
:
"
$%!!-(
)
*
?
:
1
$1
B
%!!3+C
D
%!!.(
:
)
*
,
/
"
>:
,
>5
"
>
E
$
(
$
(
$
(
,
,
! "
,
$#
(
%!!&
''%
,
,
,
/@@
7
7
$%!!.(
$%!!6(
?
/
9
@
$/@@(
9
E
"
8 ?
3
"
# $ %
?
%
#
"
''% "
9
&' "
,
5
/01
#
/ 9
$E
?
%
(
$E
?
(
,
'
"
%1
"
"
,
-
"
"
'
%1
3:;
-1"
"
&"
'
$
(
E
4
0
$%!!.( E
"
:
)
*
,
?
8
4
4
9
,
,
E
,
"
,
+
4
"
$%!!!(
! " # $ $ " $ $ % & '(' )2 ! " # Ω τ $% & "' % "' ( ( ) * % "+ ( , - % ' ( ./0 ./0 ∆)+ * $% -+ % $% % )+ * $%
-<
$%(
?
/
$%!!3(
#
Ω
τ
#
,
* >2"
Ω
/
2 > Ω/
$%!!3(
4
+
,
/
+
,
2 < τ?
,
4
$ ''%( A
$%!!6(
"
$%!!.(
4
"
$%!!!(
,
@
A
$ (
,
,
,
,
+ !ϕ
1
,
/01
,
,
E
,
<
4
F
E
9
<
$FE< (
@
A
$%!!'(
# $$
(
,
# $ $$ (
# $ $4
# $ $ψ
1
E
$&( 4
"
$%!!3(
)
*
5
,
,
,
"
$ ''&(
B
4
"
,
9
<@G' 5
5
$%!!6( 5
7
$ '''(
)"
*
,
9
E
H
4
,
9I'
$8(
$
%!!3+B J9 %!!8(
:
$H (
9
,
G' /
,
/"20301
,
,
)
*
"
,
0 "'0
4
:
1
)
$
(
$
(
$
(
$
(*$C
D
%!!!( E
"'01
4
,
,
E
,
4
,
"
+01
,
$%K(
* , , , , ,$L(
$L(
$(
$>(
$>(
-$L(
$L(
$L(
$L(
* * , , , % % % -&$(
$L(
$(
7 '(' * .!/! .!/! .!/! -) .!/! , , .!/! .!/! , ,
$L(
$L(
$>(
$L(
M
5
,
.!/! .!/!#
7
$%K(
$8K(
9
$3(
$6(
,
$"' (
"+
$" (
6
9
8
?
,
$3(
$6(
$%K(
9
,
,
$8K(
9
$3(
$6(
9
8
$E
?
&
(
5
?
&
,
,
$
(
$3( 0 11 , 11 2 3 , 0 11 $ 4 5 # 6 (7 4 ( (8 9* 4 11 4 5: 0 11 $ 4 5 # , , 0 # , , 0 11 ;(8'( ( # 6 (7 4 ( (8 9* 4 11 (8'(: ( 0 11 ;(8'( ( # , , 0 , , $6( 0 11 , 11 2 3 , # 11 $ 4 5 # 6 (7 4 ( (8 9* 4 11 4 5: # 11 $ 4 5 # , , # , , 0 11 ;(8'( ( # 6 (7 4 ( (8 9* 4 11 (8'(: ( 0 11 ;(8'( ( # , , 0 , ,)"
5
/
"
%!!& ''%
?
"
9
,
3
"
%!!
%!!& ''%
"
?
"
"
,
"
$E
%
(
6 %
-#
?
#
"
$ 1(
4
%!!'
"
#
)
*
/
"
#
#
% %: @ N @ $ '''( #5
/01
9
< < <#
7%&
M
7#
%&
%!!%
&O
$N;B(
"
$%!!8 %!!3( 4
$ ''%( "
$ ''&(
"
$ ''8(
?
,
O
$N;B(
,
E
0
$ '''(
:
$ ''&(
)
*$0
'''(
%&
?
%&
!.2
/01
%& , $0 " E < H %!.! '' ( &N B $ '' ( , M"
/
$"
%!!8 %!!3+4
''%
"
''8(
,
,
:
,
,
O
, 9
,
,
E
:
"
?
"
?
,
"
<
1
4
$<14(
#
"
)
<
P
"
$ <P"(*
O
(
6
%
E
,
M
$"
%!!!( 5
$ '' (
1
,
/
( 6 %
-,
1
/
,
,
$<C (
,
/01
$<@ (
@
A
$%!.!(
%!!
85
7
#
,
#
7
8 %!! " , %!!& %!!& ''% %!.'2
/@@
7
7
$%!!.(
E
4
:
$%!. (
4
7
$%!!%(
4
,
4
7
$%!!%(
= # = > # > * # * ? * # * # # # @ @ # #,
ε
5
,
* # * # # = # = # * # #* # ?* # #* #& >@ # #>@ # = # #= # * # =7
7
$%!!.(
4
:
$%!. (
4
7
$%!!%(
* # * # #7
8 * # * # #4
:
$%!. ( 7
7
,
4
7
$%!!%(
* # * # # & 8Q
%0
4
7
7
7
$%!!.(
)
/@@
4
7
*$7
''&( "
9
8 8
9
% 88
8 88
859
8
/
= = (A < <M
/
9 @
@
$/@@(
,
,
:
,
/@@
7
7
/@@
B
7
F
$%!66(
$%!!6(
,
,
,
/@@
E
$%!!6(
E
,
/@@
,
E
5
"
%
@
,
:
$%!-.(
R
4
/@@
$E
(
#
"
/
#
,
,
5
,
<,
,
<
,
/01
%2
' %%!2 #
%2
%!!
#
' 8&82
,
,
/01
,
,
ϕ
' ' % 5
,
,
ψ
0
' %(
"/<
4
@
A
$%!!'(
N
A
$%!!6(
E
,
"
,
,
,
/01
,
,
,
@
A
,
,
,
5
%2
,
;/01
' '-&2 5
E
"
H
,
"
"
4
%2
' 62
%2
' 6!2
6,
<N"
"
3 , αψ ψSαψ;αS' '&3;' - S' % 3 6E /01 : /01 /01 $ -32( /017
,
$: ''&(
"
%!!'
5
5
$%!!6(
5
7
$ '''(
"
,
' '8
1
)
*
5
"
4
$E
?
8
(
E ?
8
#
"
,
,
,
,
,
5
%2
,
;/01
#
9
6
' '-%2
#
%2
' 2
,
?
8
,
8
*"
A
9
#
0
$%!!.(
5
,
6
9
"
!
#
,
4
$ ''%(
"
#
5
,
#
5
%2
,
/01
#
%
' '-%2
%2
#
' 2
#
,
,
"
5
)
*
"
"
1
"
9
9
"
"
)
*
E
,
1
"
9
4 R 0 " $%!!!( T4 < N 9 " < < .$ ( 6- --4 " : $%!. ( T? R < %. 6-. 4 5 7 A " @ $ ''%( TE ? / < > 4 < A !%$8( .--!'. 4 @ # 7 $%!!3( T4 B E U < < " @ R < 6. ! 3% 4 @ A 7 $%!!%( T 0 @ " < 4 < < A < 3. -- !-7 1 @ F $%!66( T1 " 0 < 0 @ 0 F / < &8 3.3 6% 7 7: $%!!3( < 4 1 0 5 B 5 , < &'8 7 4 $ ''&( T4 " 0 1 0 < @ " < 4 E ? 0 '3;'& < A " 0 7 7 A A 7 $%!!.( TE " @ A 0 1 0 @ R < .- %%3 %8& " 0 R H " / $%!!!( T# " , 1 " <, A #<"0 < , A 0 " #<"0 " #<"0 1 && 3-" @ 4 $ ''8( T N 9 , < < 8.$%( -% .% " @ 4 A RA < $ ''&( T0 V
R < < @ 86$&( &6& &.&
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
N 5 4 B $%!!!( T1 4 " ? 0 E E O F7<A 5 1 -&6! " @4 N 5 4 B $ ''%( T1 4 " ? 0 E E O A < BCCCEU $8( 6!% -'& B 9 A $%!!8( T < ? < < / B R < < @ - %6& %.8 B A < 70 5 : : $%!! ( T< 0 < A E @ , E %!6' %!.. 1 B E < 0 F %3! 5 7 5 0" @ @ 0 5 $%!!-( TE 1 : >0 E 5 < %!63 %!!3 E 1 #<"0 " ? E < $%!!!( F @ B 1 $%!! ( < 1 0 : 4 N 4 1 33 @ ? < A $%!.8 ''%( 4 " ? < A 7 M " 1 @ < " B $%!!3( T 4 F " < " A R < 1 ! !-%%. A 9 AB $%!! ( TA E " A )A 7 * F H O B A 6- % %' % 38 A / " < $%!!-( T / 4 A / < 4 E 5 0 3$%'( %6'! %6 3 @ 0 $%!!8( T< P 0 E N 9 " 4 1 < > R < < @ - %8-%6 @ 0 $%!!3( TF / R" 4 E O 1 R < < @ ! %6 %6. <14$ < 1 4 1A"( $%!.6 %!!- " < H 7 M " 1 : <14$ < 1 4 1A"( $%!!. '' " < H 7 M 1 4 $%!!6( T0 B @ B @ 1 < 1 0 " - N 4 1 7$ 7 1A"( $%!.8 ''8( " H 7 M " 1 : 7$ 7 1A"( $%!.6 %!!- " E < H 7 M " 1 : U 0 " $%!!.( T< N 9 < < 3$ ( %!3 '. 5 : $ '''( T1 " " 1 4 " E 1 " 1 A 5 1 F &&- 5 7 5 0" 5 : 0 5 $%!!6( T1 E 1 " 4 < 4 B 1 A 5 1 F %688 5 7 5 0" 5 R $ '' ( T< # " ? < " & 1 < % " O O F R 5 R@ $ '' ( < 4 " 1 0 " @E 1 -8' 5 7 $ '''( / E F #, O 1 %3' 5 H %!!! T1 < " A < E ? $< ( < < 1 / 4 1 A < < 1 &3% C 4 4 D $%!!!( T< 1 " 1 : " " R < < @ &- %63 %. D B $%!!-( T @ > F / 9 < #<"0 / 9 < #<"0 < 0 1 #<"0
- # " " " " . " . " # -" 4 # %''' 6% 8!8 8! &6& '% %6 6. %-6' '6 # A /01 %'!H %!!' 6% -' %' 63 !' - &3& '' Ω 6% 8 - 3 3& %& ' 88 3 τ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
02
"
$/@@ ?, ! ! '& ( ( - + + + + B + $' '''(' 8&6KKK B + ' -'.KKK$' '''( B + $' '''(' 83KKK B + ' 8.&KKK$' '''( + '%KKK$' ''3( $' '%!(' -!KK ' 6''KKK$' '''( + %-&KKK$' '''( + $' '%8(% %-% KK + ' -&KKK$' '''( + ' '&'$' %%( + ' %%!KKK$' ''-( ' ' %KKK$' '''( $' '' (' '-&KKK ' '8 KKK$' ''8(+ $' ''-(' 8&8KKK ' '&3KK$' '&%( ' ! KKK$' '''( ' ''!$' 3! (
'(' + '(' ' 6!KKK$' '''( %-!! 3 -% %& . 8 !8 : $ ( $' ''6( $' '''( $' ''.( $' 8& ( ! 86 6 .8 % 8- ' &% : $ ( $' %8!( $' &&( $' .& ( $' !!-( 4 $?B ' 38'KKK $' '''( ' 33-KKK $' '''( ' 8%3KKK $' '''( ' %--KK $' '%&( R $ ( ' 6 A -6< %. / % KKK !!2 KK !32 K !'2 4 , /@@ 5 , & : 8 4 5 $ '' ( 1 . .& E , # ( B ? B C S& 8 Q +S% Q F 5 ?B V' 3 , 3 R /@@ @ R % 6 -S' 6 × '& , " / &6 $ ( " %.& -! % '''
0
0 #
,"1
#
# $ %
22,
$0 " H '' ( 22' 0 222 0 222' 7 222 7 222' 8 222 8 222' 9 222 * 2 +'
' 2 2 ' 8 8 ' 02 4' 74 74' 94 94' 84 84' 74 4 ' 74 74 ' 4 4 ' 24 24'9840 GDPPC-(X+M)/GDPxmgdp .05019 1.39815 1709.91 16291.2 HENANHUNAN GUIZHOU JIANGXI QINGHAI GANSU Sichuan+ HUBEI GUANGXIYUNNAN HEBEI ANHUI HEILONGJ INNER MO SHAANXI XINJIANG JILIN SHANXI NINGXIA hainan SHANDONGLIAONING ZHEJIANG JIANGSU FUJIAN BEIJING TIANJIN SHANGAI GUANGDON SO2PC-GDPPCgdppc 1709.91 16291.2 2.42249 29.9789 GUIZHOU GANSU YUNNAN Sichuan+ SHAANXI NINGXIA GUANGXI HENAN QINGHAI HUNAN JIANGXI SHANXI ANHUI INNER MO XINJIANG HEBEI hainan HEILONGJ HUBEI JILIN SHANDONG LIAONING FUJIAN JIANGSU GUANGDONZHEJIANG TIANJIN BEIJING SHANGAI SO2PC-X/GDPxtgdp .026977 .744294 2.42249 29.9789
HENANHUBEIHUNAN GANSU XINJIANG Sichuan+ GUIZHOU JIANGXIYUNNAN QINGHAI INNER MO GUANGXI HEILONGJ HEBEI ANHUI JILIN SHAANXI hainan NINGXIA SHANXI SHANDONG LIAONING BEIJING JIANGSU FUJIAN ZHEJIANG TIANJIN SHANGAI GUANGDON SO2PC-M/GDPmgdp .023213 .653855 2.42249 29.9789 HENAN QINGHAI HUNAN GUIZHOU JIANGXI GUANGXI SHANXI GANSU HEBEI Sichuan+ ANHUI YUNNAN HUBEI HEILONGJ SHAANXI NINGXIA INNER MO JILIN XINJIANG SHANDONG hainan ZHEJIANG LIAONING FUJIAN JIANGSU TIANJIN SHANGAI BEIJING GUANGDON 3:;; = 2 0 >*?@A +B3:;@ 9 8 DE&F --- GEH ---I J EK .J H %1 ; =2 222 ×3:;; @ 2 EG )EGG ---I J# E .J H %1 ; = 08>?B3:;@ 0 *2 + *9 +>>> C =2 22 D= %1 ; =0 >?B3:;@ *2 88+ * 8 +>>> C ='2 2 D=
!
"
#
$ %
% &'
#
(
(
)**+,
00 ↓↓↓↓ , , ↓↓↓↓ , , ∆∆∆∆ , ∆∆∆∆ , ! -".##! / & (// & # / ( 0 ##! -/ 1#2 # ( & # (1#2 # ( & # + & # 3 ↑↑↑↑ +4 3 ↑↑↑↑ +4 (! # # (( #5 ↑↑↑↑ ϕ *E- - + ↑↑↑↑ αψ *& - + / ∆∆∆∆ , ↑↑↑↑ , 6 1 ##! # // ↑↑↑↑ , ↑↑↑↑, ↑↑↑↑ , ↑↑↑↑ , ↓↓↓↓ , , ↓↓↓↓ , , ! ∆∆∆∆, F, ↑↑↑↑, , ! " # ∆∆∆∆ , F, ↓↓↓↓ , , $ =, , @, F, @, F, , F, F @, , *E- + =, , @, , @, , , F, F @, , *& + ↓↓↓↓ , ↓↓↓↓ ,
07 ↑↑↑↑ *"++74 )38 , ↓↓↓↓ *"9-94 ). , ! 9" // & # / & / ( ##! -/ 1#2 # ( & # (1#2 # ( & # + & # 3 ↑↑↑↑ +4 3 ↑↑↑↑ +4 (! # # (( #5 ↑↑↑↑ 2 2 4 *E- - + ↑↑↑↑ 2 2084 *& - + / ↓↓↓↓ 2 2 04 ↑↑↑↑ 2 4 6 1 ##! # // & ↑↑↑↑ 2 27 4 ↑↑↑↑ 2 22 4 6 1 ##! # // ↑↑↑↑ 2 9×2 2 4=2 2 04 *E- + ↑↑↑↑ 2 9×2 2084=2 2 4 *& + ↑↑↑↑ "*+××××*"* +4 *"*9:4 )38 , ↑↑↑↑ "*+××××*"*-;4 *"*<<4 ). , ↓↓↓↓ +"+<+××××*"*+-4 *"*+;4 )38 , ↓↓↓↓ +"+<+××××*"* +4 *"* ;4 ). , ! ↓↓↓↓ "+<-××××*"*<-4 *"+;74 )38 , ↑↑↑↑ "+<-××××*"7 4 *":-;4 ). , ! " # ↓↓↓↓ +"+<+××××*"*9 4 *"*974 )38 , ↓↓↓↓ +"+<+××××*"**74 *"*++4 ). , $ = ( 3 4 (8' 4 (8' 2 3 # E K L E FL # E &L # E )HL # E FHL # L )G E L H E *E- + = ( 3 4 (8' 4 (8' 3 L E E FL # E L # E L # L G&F E L KK E L )&) E # *& + ↓↓↓↓ 2 ×2 2 4=2 2294 *E- + ↓↓↓↓ 2 ×2 2084=2 2 24 *& + ↓↓↓↓ "+<-××××*"**:4 *"*+-4 )38 , ↓↓↓↓ "+<+××××*"*+*4 *"* 4 ). ,
