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I
-F U N D A
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4fI'"
Getulio Vargas
EPGE
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia
Seminários de Pesquisa Econômica I (1
aparte)
11
BUSlNESS CYCLES IN BRAZIL:
MODELS, TYPES, EVOLUTION and
DOMINANT TENDENCIES, BY
INDUSTRIAL SECTORS, between
1980 and 1992
11)
ISTV AN KAROL
y
KASZNAR
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BUSINESS CYCLES IN BRAZIL:
MODELS, TYPES, EVOLUTION
and DOMINANT TENDENCIES,
BY INDUSTRIAL SECTORS,
between 1980 and 1992.
by
ISTVAN KAROLY KASZNAR
A
DISSEllTATION
submltted lD partial fulfUlment
of the requlrements for the degree of
Doctor of PhUosophy of BuslDess Administration
Callfornla Coast Unlversity
Aprll1995
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'I.tvan l.aroly Ka.znar ID number 19250
1.1 - Statement of the Problem
1.1.1- The Hypotheses
One of the most important questions for understanding business activities in an economy concems the evolution of economic cyeles.
Business cyeles have frequently been seen as forms of the evolution of economic activities which, if anticipated well in advance, permit businessmen to promote and develop adequate investment policies, employment, the use of factors such as raw materials, the absorption of financial capital, and the promotion of business and strategic activities, all of which assure organizational evolution.
The correct anticipation of the bu,inell cyele i. vital for organizational
survival. This cyele could be affectcd by lovernment decisions, by
exogenous factors of intemational orilin, by questio.ns related to demand for a particular good or service offered, and by other factors.
Because of this, businessmen the world over try to aet a ele ar
~I)derstandina of the a10bal busineu cyele, of their countries .. . the specifl~
business cyeles o( thcir own bu,inclI .ectora, and the' cyeles or
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complementary secton, which ,ub,titute and compete with their businesses, in tenns or whal fonns the,c cyele,; what produces them; whal explains - .- I _ _ _ _ _ __ • _ _ _ _~ _ _
them; and also in terms o( how they are fonned, how they are produced and
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they are explained.In this · lhesis .!.I!is writer's concern has been lhe specific understanding of the way global business cyeles have evolved, that is, with
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-~ct to lhe econC?my in general and the industrial business cyeles in particular, in Brazil. during the period 1980 to 1992.
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~ .So as to obtain a more flUina understanding of business cyeles, the
writer has worked w1th three basic hypotheses. These envisaged the
deepening of the survey that has been developed throughout this thesis. These hypotheses are based on the perception of the effective evolution of the economy over lhe long terro, on the business perception of what has happened during lhe period 1980 to 1992, and on the foundation offered by
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factories and plants, 50 as to avoid making financiai investments directly linked to the evolution of interest rates in the market.
Natural1y, !~e~easuremen~ processes for cyeles. are complex and
there are innumerable problems concerning the use of methodologies. Since 1920 many economists have treated this subject with the necessary due care. Among these economists are mentioned NBER, N.E.Stone, Edwin Gay, John Common5, and Wesley Clair Mitchell. They were the main pioneers of NBER, and they created the basic methodology for analyzing empirical
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business cyeles, so much so that even today their methodology is known the
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world over.In 1946, Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Sums presented a set of definitions
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about w.hat would be.~~usiness cycle~ !his was how they defined i~:
"Busi!!.ess ~~le~ .. are a type of fluctuation which is found in the aggregate
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eCQr:t0mic activit>:: of those nations which oraanize their work especially by means of businesses.
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cyele consists of expansion.s that occur at the same time in many business activities, followed in a si~ilar manner by aenera! recessions, contractions and returns to growth which are condensed in the- -- .
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.~ansion phase that follows: this sequence of changes happens and repeat! !tself, but it il not periodi~. ~n terml of duration business cyeles lalt fr011! between one year an~ ten or twelve ycar~. Thele are not capable of beina divided into perioda of shorter cyelel of limUar characterlsticI wlth approximately the same ampUtude per se."
These descriptlons ought to be analyzed fundamentally with other factors to discover •
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Iltvu Karol)' KauDaf ID number 19250
1.5.1 - The Amplitude Of A Cyde.
Upswing Phase
Recession Phase
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Inflection Point
Above
. / Inflection PointEquili-Equilibrium
Brium
~~f~ection
olnt
Below
Revival
Equili-
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brium
Depression Phase
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Time
Amplitude of a cycle meana lts degree of profundity and its ablllty to revert itself. To be conaldered a cycle, an economic activity should present a significant decline, foUowed by a re.umption of growth. The magnitude of this decline in busineu actlvltle. however isn't very clear according to the above definition. It goes wlthout saylng that buslnessmen like to have the smallest detaUs about the profundlty of the evolutlon of productlon in relation to an average: the largest amplitude in the growth phase and the sma11est amplitude in the recesslve phase .
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51 l.cvaa Karol)' KUIDar ID ft\uDbcr 19250
2.1 - What Sort Of Uterature Has Been Researched1
The literature concerning the study of business cyeles is vast and ample, as it has had at least 350 years to develop and mature.
Ever since economic science saw itself and has considered itself as· being an important survey area for the purposes of making a contribution to human civilization, much has been done in the field of understanding production evolution, especially 'on a general leveI.
With a view to understanding lhe most important literature which deals with this subject, !his writer has developed his survey b~
concentrating on three focal points. By way of the first focal point, he has
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tried to analyze the evolution of surveying that has taken place in developed and developing nations, with particular emphasis on North American and
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Intematlonal Studiel firstly, and Brazilian Uterature secondly. This analysis
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~ - . .is included in sections 2.2 and 2.3 cntltl,d Nortb ÂmerlcalJ AlJd
llJterlJatlolJal Uterature Related to .a,lc Cycle Tbeorle., alJ d
BrazlllalJ Uterature.
A second part haa dealt spccifically with studies carried out with a special
, .,a.. ..
focus on industr)'. Thll lectlon has been called 2.4· Indu.try C)'cles.
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~Just .after comes fifth part 2.5 • ReadlDg Sourc ••. This is a section in which tbis writer has becn concentratlng on opcning up two vital areas of information: the first concerns important pubUcatlonl, and the second concems ver)' relevant historical studies. Most of what has been studied, related to Intemational Uterature, ia summarized as a "short iuided-tour".
ônd finall)', as Lt~ird focal point, section 2.6 is tbe so-called ~orkl!f._
BI bllograpby, whlch explores those books and that llterature on which,
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with the greatest of care and emphasis, tbis writer has based his analyses, bis ver)' doctoral Dissertation.
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"tve Karoly K ...
r
IDl"lmb.r
19250 53now try to do justlce to tho •• aUlhors who have contributed to this field, whhout however ignorina lhose others who in one form or another have considerable weight in the process of developing the thinking lhat exists on this subject.
This writer h_~s objectively analysed the main authors who have contributed to the analysis of business cyeles. - - -
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Many empirical studies were carried out in the 1920s, originating from the NBER. Among them, those analyses done by A.I. St0.ne, Edwin Gay, John Çummons and Wesley Clair Mitchell (1) stand out from the olhers. Certainly~
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this last one, together with Arthur F Bums (2), were the most important
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North American scholars on the evolution of business cycles. Among their
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many, conelusions th~~ tried to show, ~y means of elassical descriptions, the i.nmQrtance of four (~Ç.t.ors which make up bu.inell cycles.:
1 - Telt, ud ReboWJd. also known as Amplitude;
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2 - ~d of R~ce"Jonl ud RecoverJes, also known as Duration; ,
3 - Impact 04 tlJ. EcolJoIIJY, alio called Multiplyina Effects or
ºiffusi~~;~
4 - Dl!placement and UtJIJzatlon, which al.o has been analyze~ becaus.e of its impact, on the creatlon or non-crcaUon o( jobs, and usage o~
non-u_sag~ o~ worki!!.l_ capaclty. _
~hillp Klein (3), also carefully analyzed buslneu cyeles in an effort to
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!!!!derstand the institutional aspects related to fluctuatlon i~ productlon: At this time, Bums and Mitchell tried to make imponant approximations to the
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peaks and troughs in the evolution of the business cycle, alming at
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~~rifying exactly whe~her these cyeles are continuous or discontinuous, and
whether it is sufficient or not to set a definite date for the tumina points in
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m.e ~conomic period!:
The NBER, where many of these economists became famous, ended up becoming one of the places in wh1ch the most information on lhe evolution of Nonh American business cyeles was collected. It has served as a base for
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54 llevu Karol)' K.luar ID numb.r 19250
other studies, such as on the evolution of economic cyeles in Japan after the World War 11.
An alternative elassification of business cyeles was developed by
l<?s_~Q!l_Alois ,Schumpeter (4) (19 -1983), which helped to foster th~
r~th!!tking ,_.~d _!"e.fining of the process of economic chang~~. Through his many creative studies !:!e. suggested the idea that it was possibIe to date b.!-lsiness cyele~. Schumpeter started out from the principIe that points of .
~~fJection are a key concept in dating business cyeles.. which is different from what Bums and Mitchell had previousIy Iaid down about peaks and trouahs.
According to Schumpeter, inflection points occur around the points of equilibrium and they aIso occur in the four phases of the cyel.~ from this viewpoint. The phase that is above the moments of equilibrium is known ~!
lhe Up-.wllJ' and the phase that is beIow equilibrium is known as the
D~p're •• lolJ alJd R~vlval~
Another important study on the forms of analyzina business cyeles and on the datina of thelc cyeles was developed by john R. Mayer (5), President of NBER. and hil colleaaue, Daniel G.Weinbura (6). They developed a taxonomic elassification of businesa cyelea, which divides them into four phases and . ineludes reccllion, rccovery, and aianificantly repressed demand, which in tum gencratcl inflation and ataaflation. In a recession, a period. of deeline in aggreaatc activity could occur which would last at least one year, with highly unelear and diffuse effcctl on thc economy. During the period of recuperation, therc would be a pertod of economic recovery characterized by relatively stable prices, economic arowth and some improvement in productivity.
In the inflation phase, when dcmand il rcprcssed, there would soon be
price increases, and there would aliO bc
ao
cxpansion with the reduction of installed capacity on offer, in function of the reduction in idle capacity, which would cause the increase in prtces, and also a decline in productivity indices because of excessive pressure on production. Finally, stagflation would be a phase which would mix stagnation and low production with high inflation and increasing prices. It is period in which there wouId be a reduction in growth, but inflation would remain relatively high.•
J.tvan larol)' l u ••• r 10 number 19250
Maycr and Wclnbura u.ed a very discriminating analytical method to carry out their analysis and aet their results. It is a statistical elassification method which allows one to visualize, by means of a combination of numerous variables, the effective evolution of the economy, and pennits one to judge its quality.
Just as there are defenders of the notion of business cyeles, there are also those who attack the whole idea by elaiming that these cyeles have very li ttle real significance.
In the literature, Irvina Fisher (7) deelared that he saw no grea~
~eason for believing in business cyele~. !hese are merely a fluctuation on_
!he evolutionary average of business activitie~. ~ cyele, however, ought to_ !.uggest the idea tha~_~_t evolved well beyond its own mere variabilit>:.
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.~ara.~_nt-m! anothcr important economist and one of the [ounders of the school of expectations, measured and defined the business cycle by using a statistical method known as phantom anal-ysis. Sargent coneluded that a great portion of the temporary economic series did not- ,
present a typieal pattern which could be eonsistent with the basie
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-conclusion of the four phases presented by NBER and its definition of_
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eeonomic cycle~. .Sar~ent, however, left it clear that this laek of a patter~.obtained ando calculated by means of phantom analysis of temporary
economic series, ~ould not necessarily imply the absence of a busines~
eycle. Spock (9), araued alona these same lines by stating that there existed strong evidenee which pennitted the aggregate maeroeconomic variables to develop along a temporary eeonomie scale which is different from that which is given by the ealendera presented in the business cyeles.
However, the writer been careful in his analysis, slnce during all this time there have not only been defendera of the notion of cyeles but there also have been those scholars who have attacked or criticized them.
The thesis of Wileoxon, which is a statistical test of two samples, was applied to verify the hypothesis of the existenee or non-existence of usage for the recessionary and expansion periods defended by the National Bureau of Economic Research. This test, which applied to the North American economy, offered in an effective and positive manner convincing statistical
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J.tvu Karoly KUZDU 1D Dumbcr 19250 122
have the areatest number of representatives in the National Congress, and systematically vote against any measure that envisages an effective tidying up of lhe public accounts and the reduction of its disproportionate weight on the national scene, ir is only loaical that this situation will tend to get worse. How can justice be done7 one may ask.
2.2.18.4. Political Business Cycles.
.Another expla~ation that is growing in importance and relevance, as an explanation of business cyeles, basically unicausal but which is growing in consensus amongst polítical and economic analysts, is known as the
P~.li tical Buslness Cyele.
Currently known politlcal business cycle models are based on analysis developed by ~illiam Nordhaus.. He developed his model in -, conventional terms as being a maximization problem: that in which the govemment has , , ;.
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confront plurality in order to maximize and optimize its activities, taking.. .
into conslderation what ouaht to happen to the varied interests in the next
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elections.
A contribution developed by Mo.ley also offers a better way of
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economic model which delivcr.. This type of approximation is more
interesting, since it assumes that the politician has various deslrable aoals for vanous demands and socio-cconomic objectives. He does not assume that a specific policy wiU maximize the number of votes he will reveive. Th~
.bas!s of the poUtical businesa cycle theory is that govemmen~ adapt thei~
policies, especlally orthodox monetary and revenue policies, in such a way
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to give themselves a chance of being re-elected. The cycle therefore has-- -.
!>as~cally the same duration period aa the length of time the poUticians stay in power. Some time before the elections the govemment will do everything
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.~ can to stlmulate the economy. Therefore, before the exit of the
~v_ernment happens, aimina at perpetuating itaelf in office, thê'
govemment will tr)' ·to create measure. which are liberal, aareeable and job-'
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creating; one could call them popuU.t.
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Despite this, the ~egative consequences of these stlmulating measure~
should not be felt any time before the election~. Because of the time gap,
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latvan Karol)' Kuznu lD Dumber 19250
thcsc ncaative effects will only bc felt after the elections, when there will .!'e more time to eliminate the problems which sprang from those measures,
-~hich were excessively liberal and none toa rigi'!. Therefore, there would
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be a reversal of policy, and this leads to stop and go movement~. It is just by depending on the hand of the authorities that one gets it right or gets it wrong in one's policies, generating the diverse cyclical movements in • production, which the writer illustrated above by means of (5) charts:
a) _Fluctuating Growth Rate, converging on ~ - which offers stability.
~_ consistenc~, which is so good that g supplants the rate ~f depreciatio'; and of population growth;
b) !luct\.iatin~ Growth Rate, escaping and diffused from convergence -which creates growing instability, typical of
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' .top and go policies, is notrecommended;
-c) Fluctuating Growth Rate, evolving in a Band, with known maximum
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-and minimum leveis - which ~an be iOoo, when the growth rates in the
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~lected range are positive and auto-sustainable;
d) Stable Growth Path, which one would desire to be possibly slightly
Eositiv~, superior to the rates of depreciation and p<?pulation growth, self-sustainable and strona, ( it could happen in a world of full certainty, followina a "Golden Rule"); and
e) peplosive Growth Path,. in which the arowth and the arowth rate do not reach their llmit - it il 'an idealistic situatioll, with short or medium term durat.ion, at best - which i5 maintained while there i5 an unllmited supply of factors and demando
The greatest conclusion lhat can be drawn from this approacb is that an economic electoral cycle can be diffcrentiated in real terms, affectina both disposable income in the economy and abo the employment rate. In fact, a politician can, for election purposes, make toa many promissea and later have a problem in fulfilUna them. Therefore, he will have to decide up to what point he would be able to fulfil hi. electoral promisses, .ince if he assume. and in not able to fulfil what he promised, he may not be re-clected, since pcople have memorie., and so his aovemment will fall.
In fact, however, there i. an interestini characteristic to polltlcal power: while one 15 in power one exercises a type of monopoly. Therefore, it lnterests the pol1tician to monopoli5tically keep a space which iives him
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Iltvu larol)' IUIDar ID Dumber 19250
one would like to see pro-cyclical or accelerator policies, the other can understand that this ls not correct and so decelerate the economy.
Although there is stiH a lot that can be said with respect to political cyeles, undoubtedly they could make a lot of sense in Brazil.
The. political cyele involves thinking of the dangers involved in accelerating certain measures or decelerating others.
One of the g~eatest pieces of evidence for the existence of political cyeles in the Brazillan economy occured in 1994, the occasion on which Presidelii
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!tamar Franco very carefully studied lhe correct tlml1l6 for implementlng
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-the so-called "Real Plan". He invited lhe sociologist Fernando Henrique
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. ' .-s...~doso to assume responsibility for the adoption of the ninth economic plan
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14 years., .This m~, while Minister of Planning, erepared room for the:. adoption of a silent economic shock, by means of which ali the money that w,!s rotten and ruinous for the economy would be withdrawn, while thé monthly inflatlon rate for the whole country was ir1 the realon of 4596..
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Then, in july, 1994, with the removal of USS 13 billion from circulation and
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-its immediate exchange for a better, non-inflationary currency, which he-
.~alled the -Real". After a lot of political campaigning and publicity, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was launched as the official candidate for the office of President of the Republic, whose image was now indelibly linked to the economic plano
The upshot of lhis maneuverina was that the people who were satisfi~d
with the drastic drop in inflation rates in the months of july, Auaust, ando
September of 1994, convinced themselves that he had been the Inventor of a
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.highly stabUlzing economic plan that would lave the country from the dragons of hyper-inflation and recesslon. T~is cunnina polltical ploy ~ed tc?
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the election of this officiaI govemment candidate on the first baIlot with
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more than double the number of votes of his nearest rivaI, luis Inacio da Silva, known as "lula".
Now that tbis candidate has been successful1y elected in 1994, he will have to show lhat he really does have a medium and long-term plan for the economy, and lhat he is not just another politician with only the ability to
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JltVaD Karoly Kaaznar 10 DUlDber 19250
4.9. Major Ecol1ometric Results and Flndings Related
to
BruWan
Buslness Cycle Analysis
Throughout this dissertation, this writer's major concem has been
the presentation and evaluatio~ of a varied set of definitions and
measurement techniques of busineu cyelel.
In effect, there are n umerous theoretical business cycle models, each one with its own rich and very particular qualltiel, which can be used in accordance with (he need of lome specific point. ~everthele$S, it is not recommendable, much less justifiable, to st~dy thesc bu,ineu cyeles in th~
Brazilian economy during the 1980s and 1990s. Durina thesc two decades, the
Brazilian economy was affected by overwhelmina cri,e, and upheavels'.
Diverse types of e91_~tical measures, in the form of unexpected economi~
plans at various periods of time, hurt the nation. Because of thi" the fonner
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I!lodels cannot be appli~d directly and immediately ~ as one would like to do, o~
~s one could do in industrialized nations whose economie$ are stabl~.
,!he characteriltlcl of the Brazilian ecOftomy invite an analysil that is freer from available ItaUatical information, sinca that, on several occaiionl~
relevant items of information were seen to axist in other model typca, in addition to those which thia writer cited abov8, such as the political cycle modelo which shows clear aians of be-ina utiliz8d in this country; and the agricutural model, since. in eff8Ct, thecI are occasions on which aood cropa substitute bad ones, causina chana" in thia sector, and alio duc: to the multiplier effect, in the beveraaea and fooc;1 atuffs industrie·s, and finally, in the industrial GOP.
!he Brazilian economy, which had an averaac arowth rate of 7,396 in.
the 1970s, saw tbis arowth averaae drop to 3,196 annually in the 19801, ando
fali even further at the beginnina of thl '901, especially from 1990 to 1992,.
~_ a ~e~ative annual arowth rate of IOmlthina in the order of -3,396. ~or this~
reason, each of the sectors and the Iubscctora in the Brazillan economy
!.h~~ed highly differentlated business cyelel' and each one behaved in a
'!.~ry sing~lar mannero_
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latvu Karoly Kaaznar 10 Dumber 19250
Due to these facts, this writer believe5 that 15 more profitable and
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~seful to stud~ by use of the econometric results that he has obtained: th~
e..articipation of each seClor of lhe induslry and each industrial sub-sector in
~he industrie's GOP as a whole; ~~.e most important annual growth rates of each industrial sector and sub-sector in the Brazilian economy compared'
~~t.I:t thatof the whole_ industrr; the, indexes and correlation coefficients ~tween global production and each speciflc sector; ~~e indexes of 1iquidity~ profit, debt, number of employees and of sales of each sector in a specific
-)'ear; and a set of variables, such as sales, assets, and the number of~mployees:
Taken toaether, ali these data permitted this writer to verify the peaks and lrouahs, the hiah points and low points in the evolution process of each'
sector in the Brazilian cconomy. In the specific cale of those variables shown above and, in particular, in the case of the ana1ysis of sales, this writer will set down the data for the thirteen year period which he analysed, from 1980 to 1992.
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This writer's econometric studies comprised or a sludy or each
Y~!3:ble's standard. standard error, standard deviation square. aeometric
mean,_, linear eSlimation, and standard @rror between dependent and
in~ependent variabl ••
F~rthennore, in a ICcond chart, containina an econometric evaluation of each' relevant variable, ~his writer analysed more detaHed information on each or these variables at the levei of the correlation index of the variable to the indus~rial production averaa~; r.ljkllj6" when nece$lary to get an idea of tbe orderlna of the companies; !he maximum value,
occurence; golden mean; minimulll value occurence; distribution of F; test of F;' distribútion of T:
i'l:'
and c1l.tribulion Y. ' "-In funclion of the fact lhal !his writer deall with a total of 89 secto~
~d subsector da!~, he was obliaed to present these data in tables which were
subdivided into Table A and ,Table B. By this means, this writer
emphasised lhat Chart A and Chart B are of the same series and complement each other.
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JltV&D larol)' Kaaznar 10 Dumbcr 19250
Sector JlJ tbe BrazJlJu EcolJomy BetweelJ 1980-1992. To determine
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-~~o!ution of the principal sectors and subsectors, this writer considered
~rowth rates of over 1096 for any &iven year as being excellent, and growth
~_tes equal to or less th~ - 5 96 as being " very dangerous".
--This writer can affirm that by çarrying out this arbitrary analysis of
p"er~entages; practically every chart revealed formidable b<.?oms or indecen~
!ecessions. In the case of total production, ~o years showed really stron~ ~~cessions: 1981, with lts -1296 industrial growth rate, and 1990, with -796.
~ detailing the data that ls contained in that chart, this writer can verifr
that ~h.~re were four really recessionary years, _and two formidable growt~
years. The years which sank to the depths in terms of low growth rates were _ _ o _ _ ~. __ _ ,
!_981, 1983, 1987 and 1990, the wont of which was 1981, followed by 1990.
~ong the high points in terms of the arowth proces~, the data show that !.he best industrial yean were in 1982, 1984 and 1989. From this lt is easy to
conclude that, after years of heavy losses, . as happened in 1981-1982, there
were significant recoveries, that, in tum, demonstrate and prove the
instability in the economic poliey of the períod, and generated the Itap,
and
,ae,
whlch, unequivocally, led inflation rates in the early 19801 toreaeh a levei of 22396 annually. Se. aliO the araphs at the Appcndix
In an ln~ividuallz.d analylis of th~ main lecton, it il shown that the
farming and stockbrccdlna sector suffercd bccausc of the effects of bumper harvest years and bad harvest yean. The years of 1982, 1986, 1988 and 1990 were the bad harvest years, with 1986, just the year of the Cruzado Plan, coming is as the worst year. That year, aaricultural production arowth rate increased by -1696. The best year, 1987, poated a formidable 2596 arowth rate. It is to be noted, evidently, that lt il ealier to rile from the bottom of the well: when the base ls smal!, arowth ratel are more sianlficant.
Industry, as a whole, had ltl worst year in 1981, when it skidded an
impressive 1796. 1987 and 1990 were also down years with a neaative growth
rate of 1096 for each of them. The aood years, as can be expected, were 1982
and 1984, two years whose recovery can be explained by the bad years that preceded each of them respectively.
I.tvu Karoly KuZDar ID Dumbcr 19250
business related economic and financiai information that is found in various business data banks related to the subject and kept in those public agencies which represent both the economy and the industry of the country. :rhe three hypotheses which this writer has presented are
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interactive. Instead of testing just one of them, this writer has included- .. - #.
the diverse prisms which were necessary for him to get a more complete
-~- ...
understanding of the subject of industrial growth and development in the
-
-~ country .
..
----- ~
The three hypotheses are as follows:
- -- • !. ~
1: The Brazilian economy had a heaIthy executive and administrative basis which knew how to adjust itself in a fittlni manner, in economic and financiai tenns, during that criticai
_
.
period from 1980 thru 1992..
.
2: The econ~~ic and financiaI adjustments made by Brazilian industry .
.
.
!n the 1980-1992 period were 50 significant that an opportunity is iiven for ~!.l.precedented growth, self-supported by the Brazilian economy and, in particular, by the private sector of the Brazilian economy.3: The eight instances of macrocconomic shock-therapy which were . . - - -,
.
~lied to Brazilian companies' by successive federal iovemments durina the period 1980 thru .. 1992, instcad of causing
irreparable damage to the Brazilian business system, and in particular to the priva te sector, bag. the effect of creating a nueleus of leading companies
~,!pable of surviving at home and internationally, given their newly acquired economic, financiaI, fiscal, administrative, ~~nageriaI, behaviorai '- - .'
-and systems' structures.
1.1.2. The Nature of
EcOIlOmiCCycles.
This writer has verified the nature of the economic cyeles which occurred during the study period, especially with respect to substantial short- and long-term changes. This writer started from the principie that
·
.Ilevu Karol)' KallDar ID ftumber 19250
The contradictlon., in tum, are limited at a lower levei which is imposed by the lona-term arowlh rale, produced by lhe rale of lechnological
evolution whlch happens in the counlry. Basically, this reminds one of the
notion that each natlon can grow, given the levei of competence it
possesses and the natural sources of efficiency available. This approximation is, however, very mechanical and in many ways hardly realistic.
However, in a synthetic analysis of his work, Hicks had the courage to think about lnstabiUty, by focusing firmly on the destabilizing forces whlch happen In the growth process of an economy. So, the very process of
growth contalns stabilizing and destabilizing forces. Hicks brought the
discussion on cyeles lnto a more dynamic context, whieh in itself deserves great praiIC.
2.2.17.7. Types of Fluctuating Growth Rates
Aiming at synthesizing the diverse types of the growth evolution of alI possiblc GOPs, this writer understands that the mathematical model in the
basie Keyncsian models will be uscful forhis purposes. In this sense this
writer will develop elementar)' calculation. of this type of modelling and will follow b)' lllustrating them in 5 (tive) graph. of growth leveis.
GOP
Growth rate
9
(A)
Fluctuating Growth Rate.
converging to
g.
Iltvu Karoly KuIAar ID Dumber 19250
GOP
Growth rate
GOPGrowth rate
( B )
Fluctu~ting
and Unstable Growth Rate,
escaping and diffused trom convergence.
(C)
--~---Fluctuating Growth
ratl lvoIving
within
Iland, with krown maximum
and
minimum leveis.
lCl>
I.tvu Karol)' K .... ar lD DUm"r 19250 GOP growth rate
9
GOP growth . rate ( O) lim Y - a-t t->+ •
-(E) Stable Growth Path. Time Explosive Growth Path. lim Y ..
+ •
t->
+.
~---~
Time
2.2.17.8. A
GeDericModel of FluctuatioDs.
This writer has consldcred the accelerator effect and the exi'tenee of economic Ouctuations. He haa explored the hypothe.i. that one inve'tment determinant ls the anticlpatcd variation of cffectivc demand by the suppliers, from whieh one can dcduce the evolution of eeonomic activlty from period to period.
Let K, be me capital stock on date t, Y, lhe leveI of production on date t, and in conditiona of fuU employmcnt,
11-
XI.tvu Karol)' l .... ar ID nUlIlhr 19250 108
where X li the "Capital Cocfflcient " on the economy.
The writer has cons1dered thal Y'.I 15 lhe expected producUon levei at t + 1. Then the lnvestment levei at tia:
c ( 1) It - K,. i . K, -
xy , •
I - K,Let . Y~+l be the median levei of effective activity which occured in .
the recent pasto With only two periods available:
•
(2)
Y':1 -
ch
Yt
+à,
Yl
'
- 1
The equation (1) i5 then:
(3) 1t.1 (àl YI
+a,
y,.1) -
l iGiven that the investon are cautious, they will invest part of their resources in new activities, 50 the specific, coefficient 8 will girate between
O and 1. In (3):
(4)
I, -
Rx
(aiy,
+aly, -
1) -
RK., With
al<
alOf lhe Keysenian condition: (5) YI.- Ct
+
1ITaking a consumption-functton dcpcndcnt 01 incomc, one geta
(6)
C, -a
+
b
(Xl YI+
X
JY •.
1) -
aK., With
X 2<
X 1Re-writlng (5):
(7)
y,- a
+
b
(x
IV,+ XI Y'-l)
+8x
(aiy •• a2y •.
1).Bx.
With temporary gaps from onc pcriod, lhe result la:
(I) Y'-I=
a
+
b
(X
lYI·l + Xly •.
z).X
(al
Yt.lal Y,.,) •8x,.
Il.tvUl Karoly lu...,. ID Ilumb.r 19l50
(I') Ke - le-l • h-I, aubstltuted
(8") Y c-1 CC-I - Yt-l -
a - b (x
1Y
t - 1 + X J Yt -z),
and adopt the relation
(9) AY
+
BYe-l+
Cy t-Z+
'O - OLet Y be a stationary solution of this expression. Then:
(lO) AY + BY + CY + O • O From (9) in (lO) one sets:
•
-
-(11) A(Y, - Y) + B (Yt-1 • Y) + C (Yt-Z • Y) • O
•
Lcc
Jt •
y, • Y,
Then (11) can be rewritten(12) Ayc
+
BYC-l
+
Cyc-z • OAnd the general solution which emerges ls: t t
(13) Yt-
xz
+ tiZ1 Z
In this way, chLa writcr haa shown that lhe Keysenian lheory, with lhe introduction of lhe temporary di.crepandes and the accelerator effect, explains at least quantitativcly thl nuctuations in economic activity.
2.2.17.9. Modela Of Cbaoa And
."alDell Cyclel.
Another set of modela thia writer has studlcd carefully and developed concems che models of chaoa.
These modela can havI .pedal significancI in the case of Brazll, where the unprcc11ctability of lhl activities of thl economic agents is very slSnlflcant and 1. alIO generated by its own instability, by the randomness of dedsions, by unwarrented movcments, and co a certain extent, by the
TABLE - 2
GROSS NAnONAL PRODUCT, TOTAL VALUES ANO M PER CAPlTA
M
RESlDENT POPULAnON ANO IUPUCIT DEFLATOR 1i80Ji2
GROSSNAnONALPROOUCT GAOSS OOMESnC PRODUCT IMPUCIT DEFLATOR
(TOTAL VALUE) AESIBCT
. --~ POPUlAnotI~
r
PER CAPITAMVALUE,
VALUES IN CR$ 1000 REAL PAOOUCT REAL PRODUCT INDEXES
INDEXES
....
•
~ VALUES US$ 1000 INDEXESANNUALr
..
CURRENT ,.10 BASE VARlAnON BASE: ANNUAL BASE:
YEARS PfICES PIICES (1I10z100) (%) (1000 INHAa OJRRENT IN 1880 1110::100 VAflAnON 1110=100
-
(%) 1180 193.00 0.19 100.00 9.20 121.29 0.00 0.00 100.00 6.80 100.00 1881 196.00 0.19 '5.10 -4.40 124.07 0.00 0.0.0' '3.50 -6.50 207.00 1182 207.00 0.19 M.20 0.60 126.90, 0.00 0.01 81.80 -1.70 424.00 1183 202.00 0.11 '2 . .0 -3.40 129.77 0.00 0.01 86.80 -5.50 1020.00 1884 210.00 0.19 '7.10 5.30 132.i6 0.00 0.05 19.40 3.00 3189.00 1885 222.00 0.20 105.10 7.90 135.S~ 0.00 0.15 '4.40 5.60 10579.00 1886 268.17 0.22 113.10 7.60 13'.49- 1.94 0.41 19.40 5.30 26044.00 1887 291.90 0.23 117.70 3.60 141.45 2.06 1.27 100.80 1.50 79185.00 1888 324.57 0.23 117 .10 -0.10 144.0 ~.25 8.32 11.70 -2.10 592157.00 UU 447.79 0.24 121.40 3.30 147.40' 3.04 134.15 99.80 1.20 8421630.00 1810 475.39 0.23 111.50 -4.00 150.37 3.16 423.93 94.00 -5.90 224206036.00 1891 401.92 0.23 117 .20 1.10 153.39 2.62 1110.69 94.80 -0.80 1127719683.00 1892 405.77 0.23 116.10 -0.90 156.48 2.59 2876.70 92.30 -2.70 12774166682.00NOTE: POPULAnON EsnMATED FOR.IUl.V 1 ST
SOURCE: IBGE- SURVEY ADMINISTRAllON OEPARTIENT OF NAllONAL ACCOUNTS
._ -ANNUAL VARlATlOH (%) 0.00 2.07 2.05 2.41 3.13 3.32 2.46 3.04 7.48 14.22 26.62 5.03 11.33 w ~ UI
hoqanllnT noiJ&olnummoO a 1&I:)(1sni=l -~1itanI ... ti"'l~ ."""UIAI_._ noil6m1otanSlT noIbIltanoO '(IibI :)iIduq ·1ehtaubnI a90fme 220fl~-- OlT23MOO TOUaOflq T3>tflAM 2301~q asoMs2 220~8 ---o--OlT23MOa TOUaO~q T3>t~AM 2301~q
s.w:. ---o--GROSS OOMESTIC PRODUCT MARKET PRICES Commerce Transport Comnu1ic:Ition
•
. . ,li . . . services T 1'WlSf0llTlllti0n Construction Publlc utllity industrial services ----GROSS DOMESTlC PRODUCT MARKET PRICESBETWEEN 1110 ANO 1"2 o
o
VARlATION RATE OF GDP ANO OF APPROPRIATION Cf
ROSS NATIONAL DlSPOSABLE INCOME BE1WEEN . . .
AND 1112. o o o o o 11)
-..
..
ií ;:;:..
ii I..
I..
O ,..
..
o O o o O OFAMLES ANO Cf PUBUC ADMNSTRATIONS.
o .... ".r.. ~. I . , \
Q
O O
lE1.A TION 8E1WEEN GROSS FONM TION Of ADCEO
TS ".., lltElR FlNANCING IlEnEEN _ /IIMD W2.
o,e 0,4 0,2 O .(l,2 .(l,4 O-C""tf")...,.an- _ _ _ _ _ r.I ""CDCDCDCD!:.:::,!:~::.~CIt CllCltCltCDCDCD"""CDc:nOCDG ---CDCDIZ)CDm __ CD(DCJ)CDCD
---3.1.2·~ r d f .... t
~ ~ c= -n~ c: m Z n c ~ f;~ ~ );I>
1
-
-o :l2' 5 '~:c
c:.m r Z - :li C _ c:: P > c: ::e m G')(I) ~cn~ O~
8RAI'HS-132. 133, 134, 136, YEARLY CIROwnt RATE OF ODP OF THE I\lDUSTRY, AND PER SECTOR
YEARLY GROWTH RATE OF GDF
0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0.00 .(1,05 .(1,10 .(1,15 .(1,20 .(1,25
YEARLY GROWTH RATE OF GDF
0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 I I!,\ ,1" , \\ , J , ' , , , \\ .(1,05 .(1,10 .(1,15 .(1,20 AlaM TAaJ! • eo - T O T A l - F ... inO ... .-u.-cIint
-
v.lII'tab ... - - o - Animei productiM-...,
- Non-.... tellic minerei
,....tuct.
YEARL Y GROWTH RATE OF GDF
0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 I " \ I I I \ I I \ / . I I '. \ , I , " ... - I n d u a t r y .(1,05
-
... utr ... tion .(1,10 .(1,15 .(I,lOYEAN.. Y ~ ""TE OF GOF
0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05
0,00 I "
"i
I '. I ,I, >. ,(I r I \ .. I ? , I \ • 'lo.-0,06 - I n d u l t r y - Metlnury -0,10 -0,15 -0,20 -0,25 .(1,30
0,40 0,26 0,210 0,30 0,11 0,20 0,.0
i=-::.:J
0,10 0,00 I 1ft \,/ I \TI I~ I 1 * , \ I //1 \,1 -~ - - E .. ctric ... oommunic'" _ ; . I 0,01 e,oo t*
I 'i t Il I I~ I ' / / I \ \ I I, \ I...
-0,10 ~,1() -o,H; -0,20 -0,20 <0,30 -0,25YEARL Y OROWTH RATE OF GDF YEAN.. Y ~ ""TE OIF GDf
0,30 0,15 O,1~ 0,20 o,~ 0,10 0,00 I I' \, I , . , ~ ,/ ,\ ' 74 \ ' 0.00 I H' \\1/ I .. '\ I J 'Jo, ' \ 'fi I \111
----...,
-o,~ - - - Induotry - - - - Tr~ material - - - - Rubber -0,10 -0,10 -0,15 -0,20 -0,20 -0,30 -0,25GRAPHS 28,29,30.31 -EVOLUTlON OF LlQUIOITY, INOEBTEONESS ANO PROATABILlTY &O 45 40 31 30 2tI 20 115 10 15 O
NON-METALUC MINERALS PROOUCTS
I
" ' N I ' I IIID:II:CI "-"!!~ml ... INOEBTEONESS ~ '" .., '" 111 111 • UOUIDITY • PAOFITABlUTY • INOEaTEDNE55 40 35 30 2tI 20 15 10,
CEMENT ANO UME
O .~
líii:II:ClI'
... ~"':!l:!l ......
..,'"
'" GlASS PROOUCTS .UQUlDITY • Pl\0FJT AMJTY INOEIITEDNESS 'IANNUAL INDEXES OF VAAIATION IN REAL GDP, IIY CLASS ANO TYPE OF ECONOMIC ACnVlTY 1"011"2 •
TABlE-60
YfAllY GIIOWTH RATE PEJI SECTOR Cf GDP .. lHE BRAllUAN ECONOMY,IIETWUM 1980/1992
SOURCE: eGE-SU."EY ADMINISTRATIOIHtATlONAl. ACCOUNTS OEPARTMENT
CXIIlElATIONS (U): lETWEDt lHE YOSS DONESTIC NOOUCT ANO UQlJOfTY. NOFJTABlJTY. NlUTIDNESS. lHE lUeEa Cf EM'lOYEl.S ANO SAlES.PElIIOO: "IOf1 992.
"
TABU·52
TOTAL SALES PU YEAl, PU SECTOl, AMONG lHE 1100 IIGGEST IIAZIJAN aM'ANIES. POIOQ II10flHl
.. USS 1 ll.UOH
SAlES PU SECTOI
N" SECTOI5 19ao lMl 1M2 I.U 1.84 1115 1~ '''7 lta8 1ta9 1990 1991
1 FAR~. STOOCIREEDING ANO FOUSTA11ON 1.6 1.7 z.z 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 U 1."
..
.
..
".1 ".52 "'NG 2.' 2.7 1.2 3." 3.6 ".0 I.' ".2
..
.
.
6.2 S." 5.5I tEr ALLC ,..EAALS 2.1 l.2 l.S 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.a u u ".a
..
.
..
2.9..
NO'HoET AUJC ,..EJtALS 0.5 '.5 ' .7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 O., I.C 1." 1.0 2.i5 ~AUJC MNElAl MODUCTS 3.7 1.1 4.2 2.8 2.7 2.4 3.5 ".2 S,C 7.6 6.1 12.5
6 aKNTANOLM 1." 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 2.7 2.0 J.1 7 aRAIoICS ANO aRAMe PtIODUCTS 1.5 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.8 O., 1.2 1.ti l.a l.7 1.4 l.4
•
GlASS PROOUCTS 0.6•
•
'.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 1." 1.1 l.',
onos .. 2 '.2 '.1 0.4 O ... '.4 0. .. O ... 0.5 0.. 1.6 1.' 10 METALLtltGY ,2.1' M.ll 11.1 '.0 11.6 11.6 12.' 15.2 1t.l JO.S 11.' 11.1 11 IRONWORI<S S., ".6 S.2 4.5 6.2 1.4 1.5 7.1 '.5 15.5 '.4 10.C 12 NOH-IION tEr AUu.GY U,
.
l.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 I.' ".6 6.5 5.2 4.2n v AJIOOS MET N.. NOOUCTS 4.' 4.C ".5 2.a 3.4 1.1
1.
".3 5.0 8.5 6.3 ".514 ..:ow.cs ".5 5." I." 3.1 3.6 1.4 4.7 5.a 6.5 9.6 5.8 5.5 15 ENGMS fW) EC)JI'tIDT
..
.
..
".~ S.O 2.' 2.7 2.' 3.' 4.7 5.0 7.6 4.7 4.2"
TOOlS NIfl) INS1lM.MMTS '.1 I.!!! 1." 0.8 0...
.
,
•
•
•
1.1 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.3 17 110N PIIOClSSMG m.::~*-'( '::~'i>-*:' ::,*#:~;1@i fl1~m:li(,*i: !W'M'i:, '.5 1.4 1." 1.7 3.2 2.0 1.' 11 ELf~ _TEIMAl ".6 3.S ".7 3.0 2.' I.' S.l 1.1 7.2 16.0 10.2 10.C 19 ELECTJC ... TEJW. 1." 1.2 1." 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.' 1.' U 2.1 2.1 20 tOoE AI'PLW«:ES 1.2 2.) U 2.1 1.1 2.5 3.6 ".5 5.1 12.7 '.1 7.4 II TlANSf'OITA'TIOM _ruw. 10.7 ,.) 12.6 8.9 '.7.
.
,
10.' 12.7 15.0 2l. H.O 13.5 2l SHPBUl.DNG O .• 1.1' 1.3 0.9 0.7 '.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 O .• 0.7 O .• 2l ItAL~O *TEAW. 0.4 1.41 '.6 0.3 0.3.
.
..
'.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 24 IC)TOR VD«US S .• 4.41 6.7 5.0 5.1 4.' 5.1 1.0 7.6 10.' 5.0 7.4 25 'jIMf. M1TS NIfl) lCXJr MaTS 1." 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.0 I.' 6.5 4.5 3.2zs TltACTORS • .-otNES I.J 1.Z 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.' 2.9 1.8 1.5 l7 iP'lAIES NIfl) OltO ~ 0.4 '.5 '.5 O." 0.5 ' .7 '.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.5 21 FUIMTWE , . , WOOD 4.7 3.7 ".1 3.3 3.' 3.' ".7 5.5 6.1 10.0 6.5 7.2 29 ~ P'IIOOOCTS 0.5
•
•
•
0.5 0.3 0.1 '.4 0.5 0.5 o ... 0.8 0.5 0.1 lO WOOO N«) P\. YWOOO 1." UI 1.2 0.8 .0.7•
•
•
1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.0 O., 11 'AfER N«) CMl8OUIO 2.' 2.30 2.' 2.2 2.' 2.1 3.2 4.0 4.6 7.5 5.0 6.232 ~,,,I ,.,~wnc:s 42.0 42 .• 50.2 39.4 .. 1.9 JI.6 )).0 46.3
...
.
,
60.0 52.4 41.0]3 OtEMSTRY NItIJ P'ETlOCHEI1eS'BY 10.6 '.0 11.7 '.1 10.7 10.6 11.4 14.0 16.' 22.' 17.2 '''.3 J4 PLASTC NItIJ P\.ASTC QEIWATW'E.S 1.7 1.3- 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.1 1.1 1.7 1.' l.l 2.0 1.6 JS PETIKUUN 28.0 10.4 J4.6 27.4 2 .... 16.0 11.0 21.l 27.' 10.8 30.0 22.4 J6 PKM*ClllTlCAl fW) VETE-..«f NOOtICTS 0.8 O .• 1.0 0.7 0.8 O .• O., o., 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 J7 tfrGENE NItIJ PUFUNE IIIOOUCTS 0.5 0.4 '.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 O., 1.1 0.9 0.7 38 GAS 0.5 0.5 '.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 39 FOOTWlAll NItIJ LEA THU 2.2 2.1 2.5 I.' 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.6 3.9 3.3 6.2 40 FOOTWEAl 0.6 0.5 '.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 2.0 41 LEATliEJt N«) SlCICS O." 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 42 RUBIIER AAID . . . . f'tIOOUCTS 1.2 1.3 1." 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.2 2.0 1.6 3.2 43 TEXT1l.E ANO C10TltNG 6.' 5.6 7.7 S.O s.z S .• 7.' '.1 '.6 15.3 11.3 '.4 44 SPl'NING ANO WEAVING 4.3 3.4 4.7 3.1 1.2 3.6 4.5 4.' S.l '.0 '.6 3.8 45 WOVEN FABIUC PItOOUCTS 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 O .• 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.4 2.0 46 a.OTttNG PROOUCTS 1.' 1.6 2.3 1." 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 ".7 _~~31_ 2.6
L
·
.
TABlE·5J
TOTAl SAW PU YEAR. PU SECTOR, AJC)HG THE .100 IIGGEST llAZLIAH co.ANES
.. USS 1 Bl.llON
SAlES PU SECTOR
N" SECTORS 1,.0 15al 1HZ 1M3 11.4 lias 1 ' " lIa7 19aa 19a9 1990 1991
47 FOOO Plooucrs 16.6 17.Z " .7 11.0 17.9 17.3 11.3 11.4 Zl.5 30.2 26.2 2a.l 4a NU.s 0.7 0.5 O .• 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 O., 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 49 FROZEH IoI:AT 3.2 3.0 1.1 2.6 2.' 2.9 1.3 3.2 3.7 5.4 4.6 3.9
50 FISH HoUVEST 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
51 DAlRY PlOOUCTS 0.9 O., 1.0 0.9 o.a O., 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.2 l.a 1.9
52 SUGAR ANO AlCan. 4.2 4.1 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 S., 6.7 9.S
53 ca=FEf O.S
.
.
,
'.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 o.a 0.4 O.S 0.6 0.4 0.354 VEGETABLEOILS 1.6 2.7 1.0 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.9 U 1.2 1.7 55 VARIOUS rTIMS 4.3 4.7 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.1 6.1 S., 7.6 10.7 1.0 9.2 56 BEVElAGES ANO TOIACCO 2. 2.5. 2.7 2.0 l.a 1.' 2.5 2.7 2.1 4.6 4.' 4.a 57 BEVERAGES ANO sal c-I(S 1.9 1.~ 1.' 1.3 1.2 1.) 1.1 I.' 2.0 1.5 3.7 l.4
58 TOBACCO ANO Tc.ACCO ~ ' .6 ' .1 ' .1 0.7 0.6 0.6 .. 7 0.1 o.a 1.1 1.1 1.4 59 PUBlISHING ANO .-TMi 1.4 1.1' 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.0 4.6 3.0 2.4
60 NEWSPAPERS t.4I 8.31 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.6 l.a 0.9 0.8 61 PUBUSHEIlS NI{) . . . . TEIlS 1.0 '.a 1.0 o.a 0.9 0.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.a 2.1 1.6
62 [WfA5ES IlDUSTlMES t .• 3.$ 4.3 2.a 2.9 u 1.' 4.6 4.6 7.1 S.S 4.2 63 1(DI6lC»UA TU 2.5 2.S 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2 ' 2.9 1.1 3.3 4.2
M IINSlJlMNTS
.
.
..
".31 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 t.5 t.S '.4 O., 0.6 0.4 6S (»IERSE MTKl.ES t.7 0.7 O., 0.6 0.7 0.1 I.' 1.3 1.4 ' 2.1 1.6 1.3"
CONSTMJCTION fliHO ENGItIEEJIING loO.1 1<l.7 14.S 1.0 7.4 1.7 10.0 n .6 21.3 M.4 3.3 23.267 uWUo\ CXlNSTMIC'l'ION 9.l 9.9 13.4 7.4 6.9 8.1 '.2 12.S It.' 14.1 2.7 22.1
M ~_DUOI' ENGItIEEJIING '.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 O., 1.1 1.4 2.3 0.6 1.1
"
~ 2'.6 1'9. Si 2'6.6 20.4 19.7 21.9 lI.9 27.7 32.5 ns 40.2 32.410 WtO.E.SAU a.OHIMG, FOOO /IIIIIl) OTHEAS 2.1 2. Si 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.9 l.S 1.3 4.2 6.1 4.2 3.7
11 ICONS~ W.TEIW.lIIiISINESS U i ,.~ 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 2.4 1.3 1.1 n _TM. TIAm 4.31 5.0 6.7 4.1 1.' 4.]. 7 .• 6.5 7.3 13.1 9.5 7.1 n _TM. FOCO IUSKSS 4.2 3.31 4.7 3.6 1.0 3.' 50 4.2 6.1 10.1 8.6 4.7 14 ~t«U IEs..LES 4.1' 3.1 4.9 3.1 1.2 4.0 4.9 5.8 6.5 9.7 7.9 6.8 15 onos 1.0 '.9 1.3 0.9 0.9
•
•
•
1.3 1.3 1.4 2.4 1.6 1.3 n ~TIADE 4 .• 3.1' 4.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.7 7.7 7.1 7.7n !lEAl ESTATE AGlEMTS 1.2' 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 '.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 2.2 2.1 U
1. 1l0()(ilMG '.31 '.31 0.3 0.3 0.3 t.l 0.5 0.5 0.4 O., 0.5 0.5
79 IMT1C*/IIIIIl)~ I .• 4.6 7.1 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 n .4 lU 9.4 9.5
10 (J(lUT~T I. 3.2' 1.5 1.1 2.9 2.4 1.0 2.8 1.1 4.9 2.1 1.6
11 0Ma5E sovas Li! 1.1 1.' 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 I.S U 5.0 12 fUR.1C SUVICES U 11.0 14.1 11.0 11.4 12.7 14.7 19.0 27.6 41.0 n .9 3].6 13 MAl. NIIC TELECOMUICATOIS 2.5 2.6 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.3 4,6 7.5 7.4 6.6 14 AADO NIIC TE1.E\IISOII 0.3 • .2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 15 ElECT-.::m SEIMCES 5.0 S. 6.7 5.0 5.5 6.4 7.7 11.6 16.0 23.7 23.0 18,2
16 WATEl, SEWNil fliHO &AS SEIMCES 0.8
.
.
,
1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.4 4.0 3.9 87 ~ fliHO ~T PBSClMEl. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0,7 11 fIlA*I«j /li«) DlVUOI'tEM'T 0.6 0.7 0,9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9~
COIlRE.I.A TIONS (R2):
,-1 ABLE-S7
BETWEEH THE GROSS OQMESTIC Paooucr ANO llQUlDfTY, PlOfI1A8UTY,
IND(BTtJ)NESS, THE NUteER Of EM'lOYW ANO SAlES.PUIOOO: "1011992.
t
"
TABLE- 54
SALES: AVERAGE, DEVIAT1OH-tEAN, ElROI-1IEIIOD '''011991
... I SlCTOlS I AVUAGE I AYUlEV I lIlVSQ I ITDEV I llCMAN I UNEST •. SlFtX
1 fARNNG, SToacaaEfolNG Ale) fOIf.STAllDN 2 NIING
1 I.aAllC...utALS I 1.ul u"l. 7·5 2 1 0.811._..1·941 · o~I· 1.44
4 NON-KTALLI: NNElAlS 1.12
5 ~AllJC ~ PIOOUCTS 1.15
, ICl~ ANOLM 1.6'1 _ _ 0.571 H_].~I 0.101 1.SSl 0.161 1."
7ICllANCSANOCUANC..n.crS ----1--1.50{ o ... } Uil--O.SlI--j-:4TJ __ 0.091 1.13
• IGLASS PIOOUCTS - - - I UIl 0."61 ·1. . . 1 1.711 n - ·0.411 6:1 .. 1 z.'!
• tonos ·--1·--"77] 0.611 16.121 --- 1.'71 - - o . u I --0.1 8 1 1.15
10 AU.UIGY
11
11 NEYAU..-Gv
11 MKXJS NEY Alo ..a:lUCTS
,.. CHMICS
15 1*0000ENGN:SNliCJEQtJI'IoENT 4.37} . _ _ 0.891_ lt.Z9[ - '.321 _ _ 4.lO!. 0.111 J.S6i
K OINE T<lOt...S ANO INsl'IIUNEJifS-· -. - - -.. J.Z"
17 oaMII.TIC* PItOCESSING - - - 1.12
•• IEUCTICH1..mlClMC _lOW. 6.441 2.96( · . ".341 Ul1__ 5.511 _ o..:!!l 2.~-'
-itIELEC1K*TUltAl 1.691 0.541 5.531 0.711 1.571 0.151 .1."1
20 ItOEAIf'l.WO.S ".1"1 2."21:1\ 113.511 J.211 3.9~0·"1 1.53
11 ITlANSI'OITATION _1UW. _ 1.Z.Só{ ___ 1.55C 17u'l u51 12.061 uzl 3.11
Z2 JSHPiLiOIKi -1 n 1.111 0.201 1.7il o.zII 0.7"1 -0.041 3.26
13 tiAili<W>*TElIAl 1 1.371 0.081 1.1311 i.111 0.351 -':-.0.021 3.21
~to. vatClES 1__ ' .151 _ _ '_.321 n _ J5.21} _ -n~ usl .J»:?"I 3.32
lS AlIE ~TS MO IOOY '.TS 2.61
2'5 CTOItS, _OlHES 2.97
27 tpLANis NIlO OTIO V9«US 1 ual ___ 0.331 1.161 I.SO( 0."91 0.041 3.6<l
ze lf1íIiiiIITlIIR MO WOOD
-=r
5.221 1.3"1 )6.441 _. 1.121 4.981 0.3 .. 1 Z.81Z9 twOOOOi rItOOUCTS 1 - - - - '.431 0.121 ·-O.~1J _ .. 0.171 0.381 0.001 3.11
lO fWOOO ANO I'l. vwoOO I ----r.-GSI· - Hó·2b1 . uó! . 0.291 1.ozl 0.001 3.18
APER ANOCA~RD 3.34 1.81 2.51 0.15 3.62
..-snv M«> ~U'1'1CS " .06 13.57 35.36 -0.39 3.16
RV MoIO 1'ETROOtEJIoIS1'RV M.'3 1.79 '.66 -0.13 3.11
TC ANO P'lASTIC IlEJIIVA1'M.S 1.59 0.65 1... 0.08 3."(1
J5 Tlta..E\JtII 2.81
)6 CEUTICAl MoIO VETEIIIiIrMY "'OOOCT~ 2.94
J7 ]Hi'GOE MIO P'EJF1iM I'ICOJCTS UI} o.17L~'[_ 0.211 0.6"1 0.051 2.36
.,. IGAS ----o.i71 . .JlJ9L_=-:'O.S11_ 0.231 0.631 0.051 2.Z"
)9 tFoor«M NC) l.EA~R I 2.291 o.sal 8 .. ~U_. 0.891 2.031 0.011 3.11
40 IfooTWEAlt 0.17( 0.321 2.p I _ 0."51 0.691 . -u.(U)91----2.SC
4(]UAnD MIO SQCS I 0.501 0.1 .. 1 0.381 - . 0.191 0.511 0.041 2.0S
421IU1BONIOMalERPICD.CTS---- 1."01 _0.441 ".781 0.661 1.291 0.101 3.16
.. 1 TEXTl..E ANO Q.cmtMCi - - -
---44 SPHtNG ANO WEAVING
.. 5 WOVEN f AllltIC f'Il()()UCfs 2.11
.. 6 a.01HNG PItOOOCTS 2.81
r -"
~ 4 \,
TABlE-SS
SALES: AVElAGE, OEVIATIOH-KAN, EIIIIOI-PUIOD "101'''' SECTOlS
FOOO PlODUCTS I4LLS
...
49 IFIIOlEH KAT - '.411 0.641 l.ul 0.131 '.401 0.161 2.67
50 InsH HAllVEST , - - 0.231 0.041 0.00{ o.osl 0.231 0.011 2.IS
SI DAIIY PlOOOCTS
52 SUGAI AHOALCXHX._. _____ _
u-IOOFFu- - _________ 1 o.sol ___ ~·'~l 0.001 0.171 0.411 .0.021 u, S41VlGETABlE CU _________ I _ .2.!_~_ ().4 5 j -· 0.001 - 0.511 2.681 - .0021 3.7~
-55 IVARilus lTtMS 6.461 _. ----U;21 n 43.461 ..,91 6.2' I 0471 U4
56 BEVERAGES ANO TOBACCO 2.H
57 BEVElAGES ANO 50fT DlINKS 2.'1
se T08ACCC ANO T08ACCO NODYCTS 2. ' I
59 PUBlISHING ANOPUmNG 2.'5
60 NEWSPAPflS 3. 'I
" IpuBlISHEASAHONI.,TUS L __ l.ul •. ~-r-o.OOf ---0.&21 1.231 _ n 0.131 2.49
62 OIVERSl.S INDUSTIC 2.57
'1 CONGLO«IATES _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.26
64 IINS~s _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 _ ~~ •. 111 0.001 0.151 0.421 0.021 3.11
'5 [)Masl MTlQ.~-- --- 2.61
" OONSTIIlJCTlOIII /IMO ENGlEE-.G 1.41
67 GlNEaAL <X*S'JIIIOC!IIC* 339
68 AOV1SORY ENGNE-.G 1.46
69 TllAm 1.76
70IWHOUSAL.ECL~,FOODMIOGIInOS 3.j()J 0.821 20.001 1.15) 2.691 0041 1.76 71 ICONSTllUCTION _T~ aJSNSS 1.231 0.261 0.001 0421 u'l 0051 3.47 72 IRETAI. TIAOE I uoI.._ 1.9H_ ~-!ol ___ 2.'7) 6.U) o.sol 2.79 13 IRETAUOOO IWSKSS l==s:1lJ _-I~7I_"":!"S41 _ - 2.1'1 4.79) 0.381 2.94 74 IVEttCU ~ .L:..:.:. 5·~L_J·~lL_~~5H __ 2.011 --5:071 0.441_ 2.14
-7S nlCTHEAS l.zs1 _ _ G.?iL __ o.()(){ ___ 0.0} '.22) 0.07) 2.97 76 IFOREKiNT1IAD( . 4.471 1.2U---ª.I41 _ _ _ Ul) 3.52) 0.011 3.78
77 IREAL ESTATE AGlNTS J 1.12) 0.491 0·001 0.601 0.981 0.061 3.48
71 LOOGlHG 2.71
n ADMNISTlATIOH.., ~ 3.24
10
.,
- --- --- - - --- ---12 lfíüIíUC SEIVas _ 17.53r::;:;;:: 8.861 14.221 11.371 14,661 UII 3 12
83 tMl'i.., TtUCo.NJNlCAT1C*S . 4.031 -,.671_!~· "I _ n 2.001 usl 0.451 222
... llAOIO AHO TELEVISbN 0.261 0.081 §ooJ. . 0.101 O 241 0021 3.12
as IfiECTaOTY $EAVCES t.4'L:L::J.~ttJ:._467.I1L _ '.521 7.761 J.0I1 3.01
l i .ATEJ, Sl.AGlANDOO SlRVlClS 1.95
87 WORIKElS ANO AIRPORT FUSONIEl 1.63
l i ~ DEVELOPMEHT 3.60
I t TIOtI«:W6 ~ ~ISTllAT1ON 2.33
- - - 1
,L ~
N.Cham. P/EPGE PE K19b
Autor: Kasznar, I tvan Karoly.
Título: Business cycles in Brazil: models, types, evolution
o Pat.:F3244/98 O~6350 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 50119 FGV -BMHS 000086350 11111111111111111111111111111111 11111 . . . . lua . . . ~ ... ___ _
