Conferência da APVGN. AS MUDANÇAS no SISTEMA de TRANSPORTES e o PAPEL do GÁS NATURAL

(1)

30 de Setembro de 2014 1

“AS MUDANÇAS no SISTEMA de TRANSPORTES

e o PAPEL do GÁS NATURAL”

António Costa Silva

Presidente da Comissão Executiva

Conferência da APVGN

Lisboa, 30 de Setembro de 2014

(2)

2

Conferência da APVGN

1. As Mudanças na Matriz Energética Mundial

2. O Impacto no Sistema de Transportes

3. O Papel do Gás Natural

Sumário

30 de Setembro de 2014

Conferência da APVGN António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(3)

1. As Mudanças na Matriz Energética Mundial

Conferência da APVGN

(4)

2012

POPULATION

7 billion people

GDP

65 trillion US$

CAR FLEET

800 million cars

OIL USE in DEVELOPED WORLD

14 barrels/person/year

OIL USE in DEVELOPING WORLD

3 barrels/person/year

WORLD ENERGY MATRIX

. Oil Production is 5 times greater than

in 1957

. Renewables have established a more secure foundation

. Oil/Coal /Natural Gas provide 80% of supply

ELECTRICITY

1,5 billion people without access

WATER

700 million people with scarce resources

2030

POPULATION

8,5 billion people

GDP

130 trillion US

CAR FLEET

3 billion cars

OIL USE

Billions of people with better incomes go from 3 barrels/person/year up to 3 or 4 times more

WORLD ENERGY MATRIX

. Dominance of Natural Gas? . Consolidation of Renewables . Solution for the transport system:

(electric/biofuels/GTL//fuel-cells)?

ELECTRICITY

. Wide access and needs

WATER

. How to lift restrictions?

WORLD CHALLENGES

(5)

30 de Setembro de 2014 ₅

KEY

FEATURES

of the OIL

and the

GAS

MARKETS

FINANCIALIZATION

OF OIL

•Commodity but also financial asset

•New era of oil pricing dynamics

OIL PRICE VOLATILITY

•Departure of oil prices from economic fundamentals

•Oil price 25% above marginal cost of production

GEOPOLITICAL EFFECTS

•Market instability

•Perception of “supply” disruptions

•The “fear factor”

•Long-term oil price above 70 US$/bbl

OIL-SUPPLY CAPACITY

IS GROWING

•Improved recovery efficiency

•Role of unconventional oil

•Impact of Gas Shale Revolution

•Technology improvements

•Expansion of oil output

DE-CONVENTIONALIZATION OF OIL SUPPLY

•US Gas Shale Revolution

•Impact on Oil Shale and Tight Oil

•Build-up of US, Venezuela and Canadian production capacity

•Brazil and Atlantic Basin Pre- Salt-discoveries

GLOBALIZATION OF

OIL DEMAND

•85% of growth from developing countries

•Combined effects of income and population growth

GLOBALIZATION OF

OIL DEMAND

•85% of growth from developing countries

•Combined effects of income and population growth

UNPARALLEL

INVESTMENT CYCLE

•From 2003 investment growing 1.5 trillion US$ every 3 years

•Investment in 2012 may reach a new record (600 billion US$)

•Strong build-up of production capacity

(6)

6

THE GEOPOLITCS OF OIL

Source: FT, 30th March 2011 30 de Setembro de 2014

(7)

30 de Setembro de 2014 Conferência da APVGN 7 António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva

(8)

8

UNCONVENTIONAL GAS

INSTABILITY in PRODUCING COUNTRIES and THREATS

to SUPPLY

FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

CLIMATE CHANGE and ENVIRONMENTAL REVOLUTION EMERGENCE of PACIFIC BASIN as

TOP ENERGY CONSUMER

INDUSTRY CATASTROPHIC

ACCIDENTS (e.g. OFFSHORE OIL Spills) and PUBLIC IMAGE

ENERGY GAME CHANGERS in XXI CENTURY

(9)

Conferência da APVGN

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ⁹

PRODUCTION SOLUTION:

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING

•Fracture Technology is responsible for

USA success in gas shales

 Use large amount of

water in a short period

of time to develop a gas well

Addition of sand or other

material (proppants) to the

fluid to keep induced fractures

open

 Most wells are horizontal with

one or more horizontal legs

extending to the target sections

 The legs may extend more than

2 Km from the surface location

of the well

(10)

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ¹⁰

(11)

30 de Setembro de 2014 ₁₁

KEY CHALLENGES

of GLOBAL

TRANSPORTATION

SECTOR

AGING TRANSPORT

INFRASTRUCTURE

•Fuel mix still dependent on gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and jet fuel (90%)

•Demand of other fuels (electric, natural gas) increase 7 times

CONGESTION

in BIG CITIES

•Total number of cars in world to increase 2.6 times to 2.5 billion cars

URBANIZATION

•Megacities to grow from 22 to 100 by 2050

•Additional transport fuel demand in China and India

•Demand will grow by 250% till 2050

GROWTH in FUEL

DEMAND

•Increase by 40% to 50% above 2010 levels (2050)

•Driven by trucks, buses, trains, ships, airplanes

PRESSURE to REDUCE

CO

₂

EMISSIONS

•CO2 emissions in 2010 from transport sector (23% of total)

•Car emissions 41% of total transport

•Regional differences

•North America (shale gas) as a driver

•Latin America (biofuels)

•Asia/China (push for electric mobility)

DEMOGRAPHICS

•World population to increase to 9.5 billion in 2050

•More than 2/3 living in cities in 2050

(12)

2. O Impacto no Sistema de Transportes

Conferência da APVGN

(13)

(14)

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ¹⁴

TRANSPORTATION FUELS TO SEE RISING DEMAND

Source: Exxon Mobil, the 2010 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2030

(15)

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ¹⁵

THE GASEIFICATION of

US ECONOMY

• Gas replacing coal-power plants

• GAS in the transport sector (cities/trucks)

SECULAR DOWNTURN of US

FUEL CONSUMPTION

• Peak oil consumption in 2005

• Last 7 years US oil demand dropped by 14%

SHIFT in HABITS?

• Car-pooling schemes more popular in US

• ZIPCAR more than 800,000 users

• No car taxes, no parking fees, no mechanics bill, no car dependence

• New generation with new vision?

• The growing “virtualization” of life and Internet shopping

US LOVE AFFAIR with

CARS SHIFTING?

• Effect of high oil prices and financial crisis

• Number of passengers in Amtrak in 2012 the highest since 1971

• Oil consumption in California in 2012 the lowest since 1998

• Chicago and other cities: growing “PEDESTRIAN” and more bicycle lanes

• LA public transport sector reaching records (9 million passengers per month in 2012)

EMERGING TRENDS in US

TRANSPORT SECTOR

•Even so US DRIVERS reached in 2012 4.8 trillion km (14 000 trips to the sun)

TECHNOLOGY IS

CHANGING THE WAY WE

LIVE, THE WAY WE WORK

AND THE WAY WE PLAY

• The change in way we live, change the use of energy

• Growing urbanization

(16)

Energy Road Map and Solutions:

Many Possible Paths Leading to Same “Destination””

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ¹⁶

(17)

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ¹⁷

Potentials of Future Fuels and Powertrains

Source: Daimler Chrysler -2003

(18)

EMERGING TRENDS in

WORLD TRANSPORT

SYSTEM and

IMPLICATIONS for

FUTURE

•Oil accounts for 95% of Transport Fuels

EXPONENTIAL INCREASE of

WORLD CAR FLEET

• 800 million cars in 2012 vs. 2.5 billion (2030)

• ¾ of oil produced used in roads

CONVENTIONAL INTERNAL

COMBUSTION ENGINE

• Growing “dieselization” of fleet

• The Rankine cycle applied to ICE

• CAFE in USA (4.3 liters/100 km by 2025)

ELECTRICAL VEHICLES

PENETRATION?

• In the US market more than 56 models of hybrid-electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles

• In 2012 sales of electric cars increased 61% (500,000 cars means 3,25% of the market)

ON GOING REVOLUTION

IN SUPPLY PATTERNS

• More gas

• More unconventionals

• Role of LNG

• 16 million cars running on gas (50% in Asia)

• Gas can be very competitive in terms of prices specially in US

ONGOING

TECHNOLOGICAL BATTLE

IN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

• Business as usual (more efficiency and ICE fuel- economy)

vs.

• Potential new disruptive technologies (breakthrough in electric storage/new generation of batteries/role of electric cars/fuel-cells/gas powered vehicles/ /biofuels)

(19)

HYDROGEN (Fuel Cells Vehicles) No CO2 Emissions

HYBRID (Conventional Fuels+ Electric motor) Minim CO2 Emissions

FLEXI-FUEL (Biofuels + Conventional Low CO2 Emiissions

Improved Conventional Vehicles

( Lightweight Materials)

Today Tomorrow

D ^ive

rsi ^fica

tio ⁿ

TE^C H^N^O

LO^G Y ^TR

A^N SF^ER

Conventional

Vehicles

Electric Cars

TRANSPORTS: NEW PARADYGM

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ¹⁹

(20)

20

RISE of THE AUTOMOTIVE PATENT TECH

WARS

(21)

IEA : Global Energy use will increase 50% till 2030

By 2030 oil still important on world’s energy

To smooth the DEMAND growth it is not possible to roll back economic

growth

Find new technologies

Find alternatives to oil that can be:

- Economically competitive

- Convenient

- Reliable

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?

THE FUTURE of WORLD ENERGY MATRIX

António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva ²¹

(22)

3. O Papel do Gás Natural

Conferência da APVGN

(23)

THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS

Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011

Gas should make the world a cleaner, safer place

(24)

Fonte: Global Transport Scenarios 2050 (World Energy Council

(25)

(26)

(27)

(28)

(29)

30 de Setembro de 2014 ₂₉

ROLE of NATURAL

GAS as a KEY

ALTERNATIVE

TRANSPORT FUEL

EFFECT of GAS

REVOLUTION in US

•Increasing penetration in trucks and taxi fleets of big cities

•LNG as a very competitive fuel for boats/shipping

CNG

•Reached significant size

•11.5 million vehicles in 2009

•Mainly Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Iran,

India

_LPG

•Reached significant size

•Market share of 16 million vehicles in 2011

•Mostly in Turkey, South Korea, Poland, Italy, Australia

•3% of global car fleet NATURAL GAS

ADVANTAGES COMPARED to GASOLINE and DIESEL

•Gas is cheaper (cost effect)

•More abundant

•More widely spread supplies

•Emits less CO₂

NATURAL GAS

DISADVANTAGES

•Efficency of NG-Engines

(30)

ENERGIAS ^SITUAÇÃO

ACTUAL ^VANTAGENS DESVANTAGENS FUTURO

PETRÓLEO

• 43% do consumo de energia primária do país

• Dominante no sistema de transportes

• Competitivo mas preços a subirem

• Versatilidade

• Poluente

• Preço a subir

• Dependência de países instáveis

• Declínio da sua dominação

• 11 anos seguidos a perder “Share”

GÁS NATURAL

• Importante para a geração eléctrica e térmica

• Procura estável ou em ascensão

• Reservas abundantes

• Preço competitivo

• 30% mais eficiente que o carvão

• Menos poluente dos combustíveis fósseis

• Idade dourada do gás

• Combustível de transição e destino

CARVÃO

• Importante para a geração eléctrica e térmica

• Reservas grandes nos EUA, China, etc.

• Competitivo

• Muito poluente • Em declínio

NUCLEAR

• Não existe em Portugal

• Arrefecimento na sua utilização depois do desastre de

Fukushima

• Há 440 centrais nucleares no mundo; França 75% da electricidade

• Energia limpa, sem emissões de CO₂

• Competitividade do ponto de vista económico

• Gestão dos resíduos radioactivos

• Preocupação com a segurança

• Integração na rede eléctrica nacional

• Reactores de 4ª Geração mais seguros mas ainda não

comerciais

• ITER/Fusão Nuclear (2050)

MATRIZ ENERGÉTICA: PORTUGAL e MUNDO

(31)

IMAGEM TÉRMICA do

DESPERDÍCIO de ENERGIA

Washington, 2012

Estrada Congestionada

Veículos em filas lentas

Só 15% da energia fornecida

pela gasolina é utilizada

(32)

• Enorme dependência externa do petróleo e seus derivados;

• Poluição elevada e emissões de CO

₂