Climate change, extremes and impacts on natural disasters in Brazil

o

Chefe, CCST INPE

SP, November 22 2013

Climate change, extremes and impacts on natural

disasters in Brazil

Jose A. Marengo Chefe, CCST INPE

[email protected]

Identified adaptation needs and priorities

Based on climate projections and their potential impacts, South American countries have implicitly or explicitly identified priority areas for adaptation through their National Communications to the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as national strategies, action plans, policies and mechanisms.

All countries share concerns related to agriculture, and nearly all have

prioritized adaptation action related to freshwater resources, coastal resources, biodiversity and forestry. Several countries also cite concerns related to human health and energy provision, while urban systems, transport, housing, fisheries, semi-arid areas, waste management and risk management have been identified to a much lesser extent. Countries have identified a wide variety of action that could be taken to reduce their vulnerability to climate change in key sectors. Projections derived from climate models, under some emission scenarios (ex. SRES, RCPs), based on the emission of greenhouse gases until

2100uncertainties. Projections of temperature, precipitation, Water balance, extremes (rainfall, temperatures) among the most used for IVA studies.

Great natural catastrophe-climate change-things to worry about:

Based on the United Nations definition, natural catastrophes are classified as great if a region’s ability to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, making supraregional or international assistance necessary. As a rule, this is the case when there are thousands of fatalities, hundreds of thousands are left homeless, and/or overall losses are of exceptional

proportions given the economic circumstances of the country concerned.

A natural catastrophe can only come about if a society is not sufficiently prepared for an extreme natural event. Global changes have meant increased vulnerability nearly

everywhere. The growth in numbers and losses is largely due to socioeconomic changes. Climate change is probably playing an increasingly decisive role.

The following aspects can turn events that are entirely natural into devastating catastrophes:

Population growth:

Settlement and industrialisation of highly exposed regions:

Concentration of population and values (e.ge megacities in risk areas) Improved living standards .

Vulnerability of modern societies:

Rising insurance density and global networking:

Climate change: Climate change is leading to a rise in extreme weather events and its effect on natural catastrophe losses will increase.

Concentration of CO₂ and CH₄ in the atmosphere in 2005 was higher that the observed natural climate variability during the last 650,000 years

CO₂

CH₄

9

1970

2011

Urban agglomerations by size class and potential

risk of flooding

10

Urban agglomerations by size class and potential

risk of droughts

Links between climate forcing and changes in climate/weather

variables, physical impacts and associated feedbacks, and resulting ecosystem and socio-economic impacts under climate change

(Source: IPCC SREX, 2010)

Gerenciamento do risco de desastres e adaptacao as mudancas climaticas

podem inlfuenciar o grau no qual eventos extremos podem gerar impactos

e desastres 13

Desenvolvimento socio-economico interage

com variacoes naturais e clima e mudancas

climaticas

Source: Vulnerabilidade Ambiental / Rozely Santos, organizadora. – Brasilia: MMA, 2007.

Principais Desastres Naturais no Brasil 2000-2007

14%

3%

6%

58%

11%

8%

Seca

Epidemia

Temperatura Extrema

Inundação

Deslizamento

Vendavais

Increase of reconstruction costs associated to

natural disasters in Brazil – 2004-2010 a 2010

US$ 65 million

US$ 1.5 billion

Dados: SIGPLAN - Programa 1029 / PPA 2008-2011 (Resposta aos Desastres e Reconstrução).

Risk factors

• more variable rain • ecosystem

degradation • hotter days

• discrimination of women

• poor health and education

conditions

Gender vulnerability and women’s discrimination increase

vulnerability of exposed communities: even non-extreme events can have extreme impacts in loss of lives and livelihood

Managing the risks: hurricanes in Mexico, Central

America and the Caribbean

Economic losses from climate-related disasters have increased, with large spatial and interannual variation, but are higher in industrialized countries, while fatalities are higher in developing countries.

Inundações na cidade de São Paulo em Fevereiro de 2010

Fevereiro de 2011

Verão de 2012

Verão de 2013

Frequency of days with rainfall above 30mm/day, 50mm/day, 100mm/day and 100mm/2days in Água Funda-SP (1933-2009), and for dayswith rainfall above 50mm em Mirante de Santana-SP (1943-2009) (Source: USP, IAG, INMET).

Example: Vulnerability of the Metropolitan region of Sao Paulo

to climate extremes, observed and projected.

Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall (R10)

events in Southeastern South America

R10 – Number of days with rainfall above 10 mm/day

Projections for the end of the 21st _century

indicate widespread increase of intense precipitation events and extreme droughts for some regions.

Projections for the end of the 21st _century indicate widespread increase of intense precipitation events and extreme droughts for some regions.

New future climate scenarios derived from the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 for South America under A1B emission scenario suggest that climate change and its related impacts have regional variability

Increase in frequency of heavy precipitation in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90

Climate variability and change, and future climate scenarios

Increase in consecutive dry days in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90 % Changes in annual rainfall (%) in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-90.

northern areas of the continentrainfall deficiency

southeastern South America rainfall increase

New future climate scenarios derived from the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 for South America under A1B emission scenario suggest that

climate change and its related impacts have regional variability

Projections of extreme rainfall (R20) in the Metropolitan

region of São Paulo

impactos na RMSP

Areas of Risk of Leptospirosis

Areas of Risk of Landslides in 2030

Most vulnerable Areas: Serra da Cantareira, Serra do Mar and São Lourenço da Serra (unstable terrains)

Most vulnerable areas (in red): near rivers and points of flooding (dots in red)

Projected changes in rainfall extremes and urban expansion lead to projected increased in the risk of landslides and flood–related leptospirosis

Mooca Brás

Sé

Lapa

Saúde

Source: Environmental Atlas of São Paulo

Ilhas de calor em São

Paulo:

Pontos quentes da cidade

Enquanto a brisa sopra na periferia, o centro de São Paulo ferve. Um novo mapeamento acusa diferenças de até 10 graus de

temperatura, conforme a área da capital paulista. Este é o fenômeno das ilhas de calor, típico da urbanização desenfreada.

Ilha de calor

Belém

Ilha de calor

Manaus

Resposta dos Raios a Mudanças Climáticas em

escala Urbana: cidade de São Paulo

Raios

Urbanização

Pinto and Pinto, JGR, 2008

Incidência de Raios X Temperatura por Década (1950 - 2000) R2 = 0,762 10 12 14 16 18 20 17,5 18 18,5 19 19,5 Temperatura (C) # R a io s ( /1 0 .0 0 0 ) Aumento de 30% por grau Descargas elétricas na RMSP ‘flashes’/km2_/ano 50 60 70 80 90

Natural disasters from

meteorological origin in Brazil

Floods Land slides

CMI

P5

Densidade Populacional Onde as projeções são mais

sócio-relevantes?Socio Climatic Vulnerability Index SCVI Onde acontecera a mudancas climaticas

com maior intensidadeRegional Climate Change Index RCCI

Geração dos novos cenários de clima futuro em alta resolução para a América do Sul e análises de cenários de mudanças climáticas -Mudanças

climáticas e Socio-Climatic hot spots no Brasil

O estudo que combinou modelagem climática com

indicadores sociais das cidades brasileiras apontou onde estão as populações mais vulneráveis às mudanças

climáticas no País A área mais suscetível - onde as mudanças climáticas no Brasil comparativamente serão mais severas - envolve a região N, CO, SE do

Paísaumento maior de temperatura, assim como mudança nas chuvas, que podem ser tanto nos totais anuais, como nas variações sazonais - secas mais prolongadas, por exemplo.

No entanto, quando são levados em conta os

indicadores sociais, percebe-se que os mais vulneráveis aos problemas futuros estão no N, SE e em algumas das principais capitais

brasileirasimpacto na vida das pessoas será maior.

RMBS e RMC: áreas dinâmicas e com e desafios (impulso do interior, descoberta do pré-sal), com necessidades crescentes de recursos hídricos e energéticos, que serão impactados pelas mudanças

climáticas

Vulnerabilidade das Regiões Metropolitanas da Baixada Santista e Campinas às Mudanças Climáticas

Comparação entre PIB (2009), população (X104_{, 2010), % da vegetação remanescente}

(2010) e eventos calamitosos deflagrados por precipitação entre 1928 e 2009, na RMBS (Nunes, 2011)

A figura aponta que o crescimento é insustentável, pois os municípios com maior PIB são também os que têm menos vegetação e mais

Effects of Drought in NEB

-Reduction in agricultural and livestock production and productivity

-Increase in food prices

-Impacts on food processing and textile industries

-Migration to urban centers, generating housing shortage and social conflicts and problems

-Loss of employment, small farmers more affected

-Increase in public spending in emergency programs

-Social and health problems (public turmoil, looting, political instability,..)

-Lack of effective policies to cope with drought in present climate (drought as a climate

variability issue) What about preparedness for future warm and dry climates and in the region?

Drought 2012 (from local newspapers): NEB shows that agricultural activity afected by about 91%, affecting 230 districts and with economical losses estimated on US 250 millions

1877-79: ~200,000 people die due to famine 1982-83: decrease of 80% in livestock 1979-80: more than 70% reduction in production of

rice, beans, cotton, and prices went up by about 100%

Number of days with Water Deficiency (mm) during the hydrological year October-August

2001-2002

2000-2001 _2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005

2006-2007

Number of days with Water Deficiency (mm) during the hydrological year October-August

2011-2012 2010-2011

Impacts of climate change in the region:

Climate projections have strong implications for the sensitive human and ecological systems found in South America. Of particular concern are the potential impacts on the following key sectors:

Water resources: Increase in the number of individuals experiencing water stress;

change in availability and quality of water; lower hydroelectric power generation; and an increase in water-stressed watersheds.

Agriculture: Greater salinization of land; decreased availability of pasture land;

destruction of farm land; loss in crop yields; reduction in woodlands and an increase in desertification; and greater demand in irrigation.

Coastal zones: Increase in coastal flooding; land erosion; salinization of drinking

water resources; loss of land surface; and threats to small-scale fisheries.

Public health: A rise in the spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria,

dengue fever and schistosomiasis; increase in heat-related health issues such as respiratory diseases, cardiovascular problems and skin cancer; and greater occurrences of water-borne diseases.

Natural disasters: due to increase in frequency/intensity of extremes (weather and

climate time scales) and combined with non climatic tensors