Technologies and tools for risk communication risk assessment, and risk management for Floods

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www.tobias.br.ms

Technologies and tools for

risk communication

risk assessment, and

risk management for Floods

Prof. Dr. Tobias Bleninger

Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), Brazil Material and projects provided by:

Dr. Peter Oberle

Institute of Water and River Basin Management (IWG) and CEDIM Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany

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Departamento de Engenharia Ambiental(DEA) www.tobias.br.ms

Content

• CEDIM

• Flood Modelling for Risk Communication

• Risk Map Concept for Risk Assessment

• Risk Management

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WWW.CEDIM.DE

 Joint interdisciplinary research center:

German Research Centre of Geosciences (GFZ) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

 Founded in 2002

 Staff: ca. 30 scientists in 2012 (10 scientists in 2003)

 Funding:

Core funding of main research projects by KIT and GFZ External funding

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Research Areas in CEDIM 2008-2011

Natural risks and climate change

Regional flood hazard in a changing climate HARIS CC – Hail Risk in a Changing Climate

Web-based information acquisition of disaster information

Vulnerability and Critical Infrastructures

Vulnerability of critical infrastructures (SIMKRIT, KRITIS) Emergency management for large power black-outs Natural Disasters and Transportation

Global Risk Change /

Global Earthquake Monitoring (GEM)

Central Asia Initiative

Earthquake Loss Estimation

Estimation of risk relevant parameters using remote sensing technologies and multi-source imaging

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Floods: Natural or man-made?

Land-use between 1896 and today, Stuttgart-Cannstatt (Neckar) region

1896

today

Flood1990 - Elz junction 3D-visualization of flood-simulation

Flood damage 2002

(MunichRe)

Germany: 9.200 Mio. € Europe: > 20.000 Mio. €

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Functional chain of flood

Rainfall

Discharge Drainage area Climate Meteorology Hydrology LIDAR (light detection and ranging): Laser Scanning for topographic and land-use information

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Functional chain of flood

Rainfall Discharge Flood areas Drainage area Water courses Climate Meteorology Hydrology Hydraulic

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Functional chain of flood

Rainfall Discharge Flood areas Drainage area Water courses Endangered objects Climate Damages Meteorology Hydrology Hydraulic (Social-)economy ecology

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Exaple: flood damage 1993 community Offenau (Neckar)

Schäden an Wohngebäuden [tsd. EUR] 0 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 15 15 - 20 > 20

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www.tobias.br.ms Risk analysis Schadens - wahrscheinlichkeit

S

dp

[€/a]

S

P p





=

0

[€/a]

dp

S

P p





=

0 expected damage

[€/a]

dp

S

P p

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=

0 (hydraulics) (hydrology) damage [10³*€] exceedance -probability P [1/a] water depth h [m] flow HQ [m³/s] Rating curve damage function Statistics

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Information maps – qualitative advice of natural disaster Which areas are endangered ?

Endangered areas

Hazard maps – quantitative advice of natural disaster Which water levels have to be expected?

Water depths HW1993

– Information of probabilities

What is the probability of flooding?

HQ20, HQ 50, HQ100

Risk maps – Damage information / vulnerability Which Damages must be expected?

damage classifications

Maps: Fundamental for flood management

Germany (State of Baden-Württemberg): - laser-Scanner-data (1x1 m)

- 1D & 2D hydraulic models

- regionalisation models for hydrology (HQ_T-values)

- hazard maps for 12.600 river-km - publishing via internet

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CEDIM Risk Explorer

Initial CEDIM project 2002 to 2007

►Risk map for Germany

winter storm, flood, earthquake, man-made risks

►Available as an web-based and interactive via CEDIM Risk Explorer

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Functional chain of flood

 Flood management Hazard Vulnerability Rainfall Discharge Flood areas Flow precaution Technical protection Operational management Drainage area Water courses Endangered objects Climate Damages Meteorology Hydrology Hydraulic (Social-)economy ecology

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simulation-tools

SPERRTOR VERSAGT! SPERRTOR VERSAGT! QNeckar= 1900 m³/s 3D-Visualisation damage and risk analysis hazard mapping simulation of catastrophic events Operational application

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Scenario „Flood barrage closed“

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Collaps of the barrage

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Line of defence in the city

Mannheimer street

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Mannheimer street

power station

Line of defence in the city

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Conclusions

Flood-modeling systems are essential and helpful tools for:

• Producing Hazard and Risk maps

• Flood Management: • Prevention • Land Management • Building Management • Retention areas • Technical protection • Dams • River management • Polder • Operational protection • Warning system • Forecasting system

• Alarm plans Source: Bernd Rohrmann, The Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies, 2000-2

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References

• CEDIM: www.cedim.de

• Bleninger, T. Richter, A., „Erstellung hydronumerischer Modelle des Projektes Mittelrhein-ARGO Mainz-Andernach (Rhein-km 493 bis 614)“ Institut für Hydromechanik, Universität Karlsruhe, Report No. 787, 2001

• Bleninger, T., Fenton, J.D., Zentgraf, R., 2006, “One-dimensional unsteady flow modelling for compound channels: case study of a river junction and wide floodplains of the River Rhine”, River Flow 2006, Sept. 6 - 8, 2006, Lisbon

• Dennis Harlacher, Rebekka Czerny, Clemens Stelzer, Mark Musall, Peter Oberle, Franz Nestmann, “Anwendungsorientierte Strömungssimulation im Wolgaeinzugsgebiet - Rahmenbedingungen, Methoden und Perspektiven”, Wasserwirtschaft, 4/2011

• Peter Oberle, Mark Musall, Andreas Kron, Franz Nestmann, “1-D/2-D-gekoppelte Simulation von Hochwasserabflüssen an der mittleren Elbe”, Wasserwirtschaft, 7-8/2008

• Stephan Theobald, Peter Oberle, Franz Nestmann, “Simulationswerkzeuge für das operationelle Hochwassermanagement”, Wasserwirtschaft, 12/2004

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