The Atlantic Basin Initiative
The Strategic Horizon of the Atlantic Basin
and the Role of Energy
Paul Isbell
Calouste Gulbenkian Fellow
Center for Transatlantic Relations Johns Hopkins University
School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa Lisbon
Approximate Atlantic Basin
• Why focus on the Atlantic Basin?
• What is the Atlantic
Basin? A new mental map
• An Atlantic Basin Energy System?
• Implications: Policy, Geopolitics and
Governance
• The Atlantic Basin
Why Focus on the Atlantic Basin?
• Largely unnoticed by the media and Atlantic political leaders, the peoples
of the full Atlantic space — North and South Atlantic together — are engaging and interacting in many ways that are reshaping political and commercial relationships, generating both significant opportunities and
serious challenges, even dangers.
• The well-being of people across this vast Atlantic Hemisphere is increasingly
influenced by pan-Atlantic flows of energy, money, weapons, goods, services, technology, toxins, terror, drugs and disease.
• Increasingly activities, legal or not, are coalescing into Atlantic Basin systems that might provide for the most logical geographies underlying
regional commercial, development, or governance collaboration.
• Relatively little attention has been paid to the Atlantic Basin and how it is
reshaping our world. Attention is focused on Middle East (terrorism and proliferation) and Pacific Basin (rising economic and political powers).
• The “Pivot to Asia” has contributed still further to “the forgotten Atlantic”:
What is the Atlantic Basin?
•
When
we speak of “transatlantic relations,’’ many still think of
the North Atlantic. It is time to adjust our mental maps to
incorporate the entire Atlantic region.
•
Definitions of the Atlantic Basin
– ‘broad’, ‘narrow’ and ‘approximate’ Atlantics
– The political Atlantic vs the geo-economic Atlantics
•
Potential new mental mapping: A redrawing of relevant
geographic “units of analysis”
– From ‘countries’/’continents’/historic ‘regions’ to ‘ocean basins’ + ‘Great Crescent’
– Atlantic Basin, Indian Ocean Basin, Pacific Basin and the “Great
Crescent” (Middle East + ex Soviet Union)
Implications for the Geopolitical Map
•
‘Land
-
based’ categories historically dominant
–
Country, historical region, continents
–
Geopolitical map traditionally framed around the
‘super
-
continent’(Eurasia) and the ‘World Island’
(Eurasia + Africa), leaving The ‘Americas’ as a large
separate island, relatively isolated from the
geopolitical dynamics of Eurasia.
–
History of geopolitical rivalry, ‘international’
political conflict and warfare driven by
–
or
misguidedly obsessed by
–
the struggle to unite,
or to divide the Eurasian ‘heartland’
Approximate Pacific Basin Approximate World Island
Eurasian ‘Super-Continent’
‘Americas Island’
The Supercontinent and the World Island
Implications for the Geopolitical Map
•
An Atlantic Basin frame suggests turning ‘land
-based,
terrestrially-
dominated’ traditional geopolitical map on its
head:
– Start with a new unit of analysis: the ‘ocean basin’ (ie, the ocean
itself with its surrounding ‘rimlands’)
– This reorganization of the geopolitical map generates three ocean
basins (plus the Arctic) and leaves one large landmass: the ‘Great Crescent’ (slightly larger than MacKinder’s ‘Heartland’, slightly
smaller than Dimitri Kitsikis’ ‘Intermediate Zone’)
– Technological change (naval, air power, etc) + ‘remapping’ of a complete, integrated global map: rather than start the map with
the Eurasian ‘heartland’ (overvaluing its strategic significance), the ‘Great Crescent’ is left as the residue filling in the new ‘ocean
-based’ geopolitical paradigm
– Allows Ocean Basins to be analytically compared and the strategic
opportunities and challenges of an ‘Atlantic Basin’ to more clearly
identified; breaks traditional categories (country, region,
Approximate Pacific Basin Approximate Indian Basin
Approximate Atlantic Basin
Approximate “Great Crescent”
AKA “The Eurasian Heartland”
Approximate Pacific Basin
The Ocean Basins + Great Crescent
“Great Crescent” aka
“Eurasian Heartland”
Atlantic Basin
Indian Basin
Atlantic Basin Energy System?
•
Pre-conditions for formation of ABES
–
Dynamic basin energy demand
–
Dynamic basin energy supply
–
Sufficient basin autonomy
Dynamic Atlantic Basin Demand
•
Approximately 40% of world demand
•
Northern Atlantic demand flat to 2050
•
Southern Atlantic demand in line with the rest
of the world
•
Southern Atlantic’s share of global energy
demand set to double to around 20% by 2050.
Atlantic vs World Demand to 2050
0,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1000,000 1200,000 1400,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
E
J/y
r Rest of the World
Southern Atlantic
Northern Atlantic
Northern vs Southern Atlantic
Demand to 2050
0,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
E J/y r LAC Africa Europe North America
Dynamic Atlantic Basin Supply
•
Boom in Atlantic energy supply
–
Oil (over 1/3 of global production, over 40% of global
reserves)
• New players: Brazil, Guyana Basin, Atlantic Africa
• Traditional players with enlarged reserves: Canada, Venezuela, US
–
Gas (over 1/3 of global gas and LNG production; 17%
of conventional reserves,
but nearly two-thirds of
shale gas reserves
–
four of the five largest shale
reserves in the Atlantic Basin)
Atlantic Basin Oil Reserves
Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review 2012, and own elaboration.
0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0 800,0 900,0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
b
n
b
b
l Indian Ocean + Mideast
Atlantic Basin + Mediterranean
Atlantic Basin Oil Production
Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review 2012, and own elaboration.
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 th o u sa n d b a rr e ls a d a y
Atlantic Basin + Mediterreanean
Indian Ocean + Mideast
Atlantic Basin Gas Reserves
Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review 2012, and own elaboration.
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
T ri ll io n C u b ic M e te rs (t cm )
Mideast + Indian Ocean
Ex Soviet Union
Atlantic Basin + Mediterranean
Atlantic Basin Gas Production
Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review 2012, and own elaboration.
0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1000,0 1200,0 1400,0 1600,0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
B il li o n C u b ic M e te rs (b cm )
Atlantic Basin + Mediterranean
Ex Soviet Union
Mideast + Indian Ocean Basin
Atlantic Basin Renewables Consumption
Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review 2012, and own elaboration.
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0 160,0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
M
to
e Atlantic Basin + Mediterranean
Pacific Basin
Indian Ocean + Mideast
Ex Soviet Union
81%
75%
20%
18% 4.8%
Sufficient Basin Autonomy
•
Over a quarter of world oil trade (“pure
Atlantic Basin trade”)
•
Only 18% extra-basin oil dependence
•
30% of global LNG trade
•
Only 6% extra-basin gas dependence
(concentrated in EU dependence on Russia)
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 . Elaborated by the Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Intra-Basin Complementarity
•
Traditional complementarity between North and
South (northern investment in southern supply
for importation)
•
Emerging complementarity in the southern
Atlantic
–
Southern Cone shale gas with South African
gas-to-liquids (GTL)
–
Brazilian biofuels collaborations with West Africa
•
Others: LNG trade, petroleum products markets,
Barriers and Other External Factors
•
Financial instability in the Northern Atlantic
•
Price environment (fossil fuel subsidies, global oil
prices, the price of carbon, the cost curve of
renewables) providing a partial, but still
insufficient driver of low-carbon energy
•
Inadequate policy and regulatory environments
around the basin (energy nationalisms of various
sorts, and widespread lack of infrastructural and
governance support)
•
Lack of diplomatic structure in the Atlantic Basin
Pre-conditions and Barriers
Pre-conditions Met/unmet Strong/medium/weak fulfillment or remaining barrier Dynamic energy demand Met Medium
Dynamic energy supply Met Strong
Sufficient energy autonomy Met Medium-Strong
Intra-basin complementarity Met Strong
Financial and economic stability in the Northern Atlantic
Unmet Weak-Medium
Appropriate pricing environment Unmet Medium-Strong
Stable and rigorous policy and regulatory environments
Unmet Medium-Strong
Diplomatic/governance structure Unmet Medium-Strong
Pre-conditions for the Emergence of an Atlantic Basin Energy System
Reemergence of The Southern Atlantic
•
Shifting of center of gravity within Atlantic Basin
economy
–
and particularly in the energy economy
–
from the north to the south (supply, demand,
dynamism).
•
Brazil: low carbon energy mix, large oil and gas
reserves; AFOLU potential; climate change and
NIMBY threatens hydro, nationalism and oil curse
threaten energy policy
•
South Africa: much low carbon potential, but bound
to coal; huge shale gas potential with strategic
Implications: Policy, Geopolitics and
Governance
•
The Forgotten Atlantic
•
Example of US oil import dependence
•
Energy Security and US Strategic Posture
•
In Defense of the Atlantic Doctrine
The Forgotten Atlantic
• From the Cold War to the BRICS to the “Asian Pivot”
– 50s-60s: US foreign policy focused on “transatlantic relationship” and the Soviet Union
– 70s-80s: Focused remained on Europe but the object shifted from USSR to include the Middle East
– 90s-00s: Focus trained nearly exclusively on the Middle East and Central Asia
– Recent Rise of the BRICs has focused attention on China, and hence
the “Asian Pivot”
• Asian Pivot: focus of attention moving from net exporter (Middle East) to net importer (China), but the Atlantic could
soon become the “net exporter of relevance at the margin”
• Reality is that the geography of US geopolitical interests has shifted -- the shifting energy landscape does not necessarily
Diversification of Oil Supply to the
Atlantic
•
Shifting pattern of US oil import dependence
–
Traditional: Middle East, Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia
–
New rivals to Saudi Arabia and the Arab World (7
of top 10 national suppliers from the Atlantic
Basin)
Geography of Top 10 Oil Sources
•
Atlantic Basin
–
Canada (1)
–
Mexico (2)
–
Nigeria (4)
–
Venezuela (5)
–
Colombia (8)
–
Angola (9)
–
Brazil (10)
•
Broader Middle East
•
Saudi Arabia (3)
•
Iraq (6)
•
Algeria (7)
Atlantic sources will grow in
the future, while other
regions could slide. Ecuador
is 11
th, Congo (Bzza) 14
th,
Policy Implications:
Energy Security and Strategic Posture
•
‘Paradox of diversification’ suggests stability
and security focus on the Atlantic Basin
(southern Atlantic)
•
“Atlantic Doctrine”: any re
-balancing of
priorities and resources out of the Middle East
should be shared between the Pacific and the
Atlantic Basins; need two pivots.
In Defense of an ‘Atlantic Doctrine’
•
China and East Asia (the “demand center” of
the Pacific Basin)
•
The “supply center” of the Atlantic Basin
•
Let the Indian Basin, the Pacific Basin and the
“Great Crescent” work out the “great game”
on their own.
Policy Implications:
Governance and Geopolitics
•
Atlantic Basin energy system could generate demand
for regional energy governance (Atlantic Biofuels Pact?
Atlantic Energy Charter?), even set standards for
deepening global governance
•
Regionalism as a second best to global multilateralism
and a potential building block for global governance, in
energy and beyond (An Atlantic Community?)
•
But current emphasis on Asia-Pacific and China is
pushing the Southern Atlantic toward South-South
alignments and global South consciousness (If we pivot
to Asia, everyone will)
•
Atlantic Basin: most of the world’s democracies, the
“arc of the West” (Reconfiguration
of the Atlantic and
Approximate Atlantic Basin
Why an
Atlantic Basin Initiative
?
• The Atlantic Basin Initiative (ABI) – an initiative directed and cooridinated from the
Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (JHU-SAIS) is articulating new policy
frameworks, new networks of leaders and strategic direction across the full Atlantic space to:
– take advantage of new commercial, investment and development opportunities
– tap the region’s growing energy resources and combat climate change
– tackle daunting Atlantic challenges to human security and development – advance efforts to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, human rights and
transnational governance
• The Atlantic Basin Initiative (ABI) offers an opportunity to erase the historic line dividing the North and South Atlantic and to redefine and refocus a new “Atlantic Community’’ prepared for the new world rising before us.
• The CTR’s ABI also covers the full production chain arc: from idea, to policy or
SAIS
CTR’s
Atlantic Basin Initiative:
Value-Added
•
The Atlantic Basin Initiative is spearheaded by:
–
Mr. José María Aznar
, CTR Distinguished Fellow and
former President of Spain
–
Mr. Dan Hamilton
, CTR Executive Director, former
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, US Dept. State
•
The ABI is also strategically supported by:
–
Mr. Paul Isbell
, CTR Fellow (Calouste Gulbenkian
Foundation Fellow), former
European Secretariat
for the
ASEM Task Force for Closer Economic and Financial
Partnership between Asia and Europe,
former Director of
SAIS CTR’s
Atlantic Basin Initiative:
Value-Added
• The Atlantic Basin Initiative is supported by a variety of
corporations, foundations, multilateral institutions, governments and private donors, and consists of the following elements:
– Eminent Persons Network: former heads of government, ministers, and
CEOs meet to tackle issues common to Atlantic peoples and facilitate greater connections among leaders on the four Atlantic continents.
– Atlantic Basin Policy Research Network (Atlantic Energy Charter, Biofuels,
Renewables and Energy Access, Atlantic Ocean Itself, Human Development and Governance; see Sponsorship Options, below) This network is a;ready generating new knowledge and offering substantive support and orientation to the other elements of the Initiative.
– New Atlanticists Young Leaders Network
– Re-Mapping the Atlantic Program: Atlas of the Atlantic and Atlantic Yearbook
– Any other new line of work or proto-institution or governance structure
that might spin off of the explorations and work of the ABI EPG (see Sponsorship Options, below)
Value-Added
:
Atlantic Basin Initiative
Complete ‘Idea
-
Action Production Chain’
•
The Atlantic Basin Initiative
address the entire ‘production
chain’ –
‘from new innovative ideas and paradigms to
effective action on the ground’
•
Ideas: research, analysis, innovative paradigms and concept
framings, a new geopolitics, focus on the ocean
•
Atlantic Basin Networks and Collaboration
•
Policy Design (public sector), Strategy Design (private Sector)
•
New transnational governance and security frameworks
Value-Added
: ABI
Eminent Persons Group
•
Eminent Persons Group:
–
President José María Aznar, Spain
–
President Ángel Uribe, Colombia
–
President Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria
–
Governor Alkim, Sao Paolo, Brazil
–
Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico, USA
–
Mayor Mauricio Macri, Buenos Aires, Argentina
–
Vice President Raul Diez Canseco, Peru
Value-Added
from
Eminent Persons Group
• Private, mainly non-government group; Presidents, ex-Ministers, private sector actors; a civil society initiative; a policy-investment action catalyst
• Largely demand-driven by societies of the Atlantic Basin, as interpreted by the EPG
• Considers itself a mixed “think-and-do tank”
• Concentrates on its strengths as a value- and personality-driven network of reform-minded individuals capable of harnessing their extensive public and private experience to
catalyze deeper cooperation across the “Atlantic Hemisphere”
• In the private sector, in the public sectors, in private-public partnerships
• Independent Agenda-Setting, Catalytic and Deploying Force
(An Independent Leaders Council of the Atlantic Basin)
Value-Added
: ABI
Eminent Persons Group
• Backed by Johns Hopkins University (JHU), perennially ranked
within the top 20 universities in the world
• Backed by the Paul H. Nitze School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS), one the world’s premier graduate schools in
international affairs, in research, teaching, policy practice
• Backed by the Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR), ranked
by the annual University of Pennsylvania "Global Go-To Think Tank Rankings" as the #1 university-affiliated think tank in
Washington, DC; among the top 10 in the world in 2012, 2011 and 2010.
• Club of Madrid, no university, grad school, think tank to partner with ex Presidents.
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
– Atlantic Basin Initiative: Global sponsorship of largest
component level, the Initiative (ABI) itself, composed of:
• Eminent Persons Group/Network (EPG)
• Atlantic Basin Policy Research Networks (Atlantic Energy Charter, Biofuels, Renewables and Energy Access, Atlantic Ocean Itself, Human Development and Governance)
• Re-Mapping the Atlantic Program
• Any other new line of work or proto-institution or
governance structure that might spin off of the explorations and work of the ABI EPG
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
•
Programs
– ABI Fellowship (particular sponsorship of an annual/biannual
Atlantic Basin Fellow in charge of research, network and program coordination, secretariat or program direction)
– ABI Program (particular global sponsorship of ABI Energy
Program, ABI Atlantic Governance Program, etc)
– Range of ABI Projects (all have been indicated by the conclusions
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
•
Projects
–
ABI Governance project:
Atlantic Energy Charter
Project
(particular sponsorship of ABI component
project)
–
ABI Finance project:
Southern Atlantic Finance
Corporation for Infrastructure (SAFCI)
: SAFCI
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
•
Projects
–
ABI Trade and Development project:
Atlantic Basin
Trade Preference Harmonization Program
. A
pan-Atlantic initiative that harmonizes trade preferences
for low income Atlantic countries.
–
ABI Governance project:
Extractive Industries:
Governance, Policy, Strategy
(Public-Private-Partnership)
. Strategic policy, planning and steering
to facilitate strategic diversification of commodity
export economies; strategic action against the Dutch
Disease and the oil curse. Steering Group,
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
•
Projects
–
ABI Climate-Resilient Development project:
Atlantic
Action Alliance for Renewables Deployment in the
Southern Atlantic and the Reduction of Energy
Poverty
(AAA for REDSAREP)
–
ABI Multi-disciplinary project:
The Atlantic Ocean
Itself as the Relevant Unit of Analysis
(research,
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
•
Projects
–
ABI Strategic Research project:
Publication of
Annual
Report on the State of the Atlantic
in which Eminent
Persons offer concrete recommendations on priority
topics. )CTR, the editor and publisher, JHU-SAIS)
–
ABI Strategic Research project:
Re-mapping the
Atlantic Basin
–
ABI Strategic Communications project:
Atlantic Basin
Media Campaign. Embark on an activist strategy of
public and media outreach
to raise consciousness to
The ABI: Initiative, Programs, Projects
•
Projects
–
ABI Platform project:
ABI Clearing House and
Proto-Secretariat
• Consolidate the emerging network of Eminent Persons and institutions that can share work, studies, etc.
• Create a mechanism enabling a regular process of interaction, perhaps through a Wiki or other means.
• Invite current political leaders and active business leaders to participate. Be proactive about engaging the next generation of leaders.
–
ABI Platform project:
The ABI policy research network
The Future of the ABI:
Conclusions of the EPG
•
Next Steps
– Principals agreed generally on a series of steps to consolidate the Atlantic Basin Initiative and take it forward.
– There was agreement that the ABI should:
• be demand-driven
• consider itself a mixed “think-and-do tank”
• play to its strengths as a value- and personality-driven
network of reform-minded individuals able to harness their extensive public and private experience to drive greater
The Future of the ABI:
Conclusions of the EPG
•
Next Steps
–
The issue of funding is critical
–
The ABI must meet the market test of raising
sufficient funds to conduct the many activities
proposed. Individual Members offered to be helpful
in this regard.
The Future of the ABI:
Conclusions of the EPG
•
Next Steps
– Using this timeframe as orientation, Principals suggested a number of specific steps:
• Consolidate the emerging network of Eminent Persons and institutions that can share work, studies, etc.
• Create a mechanism enabling a regular process of interaction, perhaps through a Wiki or other means.
• Invite current political leaders and active business leaders to participate. Be proactive about engaging the next
The Future of the ABI:
Conclusions of the EPG
•
Next Steps
• Embark on an activist strategy of public and media
outreach to raise awareness and make the Atlantic Basin
Initiative attractive in the global marketplace of ideas.
Many ideas were proposed; more resources will be needed.
• Release an Annual Report on the State of the Atlantic in
which Eminent Persons offer concrete recommendations on priority topics.
• Strengthen High-Level Private Sector Participation.
• The Eminent Persons agreed to meet again in 2013 – in June (22-24) in Luanda, Angola (with ERIGO as host and
The Future of the ABI:
Conclusions of the EPG
•
Timeline
– A notional 3-year timeline ''launch'' was proposed at the 2nd EPG meeting in La Romana (Dominican Republic
– Phase 1 -- 2012-2013:
• Focus on efforts to build an Atlantic consciousness
• Consolidate the Eminent Persons Group and Atlantic network of policy institutes
