9RO6SHFLDOQSS6HSWHPEHU ,6613ULQWHGLQ%UD]LO
%5$=,/,$1$5&+,9(62)
%,2/2*<$1'7(&+12/2*<
$ 1 , 1 7 ( 5 1 $ 7 , 2 1 $ / - 2 8 5 1 $ /'UXJ,QWHUDFWLRQZLWK5DGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV(IIHFWRQWKH
/DEHOLQJ RI 5HG %ORRG &HOOV ZLWK 7HFKQHWLXPP DQG RQ
WKH%LRDYDLODELOLW\RI5DGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
0DULD/XLVD*RPHV
0DUFLD%1XQHVGH2OLYHLUD
DQG0DULR%HUQDUGR)LOKR
8QLYHUVLGDGH GR (VWDGR GR 5LR GH -DQHLUR ,QVWLWXWR GH %LRORJLD 5REHUWR $OFDQWDUD *RPHV 'HSDUWDPHQWR GH
%LRItVLFD H %LRPHWULD $Y GH VHWHPEUR 5LR GH -DQHLUR 5- %UDVLO,QVWLWXWR 1DFLRQDO GR &kQFHU&RRUGHQDGRULDGH3HVTXLVD3UDoD&UX]9HUPHOKD5LRGH-DQHLUR 5- %UDVLO
$%675$&7
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
.H\ZRUGV'UXJLQWHUDFWLRQEORRGHOHPHQWVUDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVELRDYDLODELOLW\
$XWKRUIRUFRUUHVSRQGHQFH
,1752'8&7,21
,Q QXFOHDU PHGLFLQH UDGLRDFWLYH WUDFHUV FDOOHG UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVDUHHPSOR\HGLQWKHVWXG\RI EORRGIORZPHWDEROLVPPRUSKRORJ\RIDQRUJDQ &DUOVVRQ &KDQGUD DQG WR HYDOXDWH WKH GUXJ IRUPXODWLRQ DQG GUXJ GHOLYHU\ V\VWHPV 3HUNLQVDQG)ULHU8QH[SHFWHGSDWWHUQVRI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ FDQ EH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDGLVHDVH+RZHYHUPDQ\IDFWRUV
LQFOXGLQJ GUXJ WKHUDS\ UDGLDWLRQ WKHUDS\ EHVLGHV
SDWKRORJLFDO SURFHVV FRXOG DIIHFW WKH
ELRGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHUDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO3DVVRV HW DO DQG 3DVVRV HW DO KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKHGLHWDU\FRQGLWLRQVFDQDOVR
LQWHUIHUH ZLWK WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI
UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO6RPHDXWKRUVKDYHGHVF ULEHG WKDWV\QWKHWLFRUQDWXUDOSURGXFWVLQWKHEORRGDV ZHOODVWKHODEHOLQJFRQGLWLRQVFDQKDYHDQHIIHFW RQWKHODEHOLQJRIUHGEORRGFHOOVZLWKWHFKQHWLXP
*RPHV0/HWDO
P P7F 6DPSVRQ +RMHOVH HW DO 6DPSVRQ %UDJD HW DO ,W KDV DOUHDG\ UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV XVHG LQ GLDJQRVWLF LPDJLQJ LQ QXFOHDU PHGLFLQH LV DOVR DOWHUHG E\ GUXJV +ODGLN HW DO +ODGLN HW DO +HVVOHZRRG DQG /HXQJ *RPHV HW DO
7KH GUXJ LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK
UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV ',5 FDQ EH NQRZ RU XQNQRZQ2ZXQZDQQHHWDO
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
'UXJ LQWHUDFWLRQ DQG WKH ODEHOLQJ RI EORRG HOHPHQWV
9DULRXVDXWKRUVKDYHVWXGLHGWKHHIIHFWRIGLIIHUHQW GUXJV QDWXUDO DQG V\QWKHWLF RQ WKH ODEHOLQJ RI EORRG HOHPHQWV ZLWK UDGLRQXFOLGHV DQG KDYH UHSRUWHGLPSRUWDQWILQGLQJV %HUQDUGR)LOKRHWDO 6DPSVRQ %UDJD HW DO 6SLFHU HWDO7KHPHFKDQLVPRIWKHIL[DWLRQRIWKH UDGLRQXFOLGHRQWKHEORRGHOHPHQWVKDYHDOVREHHQ VWXGLHG %HUQDUGR)LOKR 6ULYDVWDYD HW DO &DOODKDQDQG5DELWR%HUQDUGR )LOKR HWDO
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
LRGLQHPHWDLRGREHQ]\O JXDQLGLQH ,
0,%* LQWR WXPRUV ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW QLIHGLSLQH
DQG RWKHU FDOFLXP FKDQQHO DQWDJRQLVW¶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
&\FORVSRULQ KDV EHHQ PHQWLRQHG HDUOLHU LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK SUREOHPV RI ZKLWH FHOO ODEHOLQJ 7KH VDPH GUXJ DOVR DIIHFWV UHG FHOOV VKRZQ WKDW WKHODEHOLQJHIILFLHQF\KDGGHFUHDVHG+HVVOHZRRG DQG /HXQJ /DWHU ZRUN UHYHDOHG WKDW WK H GUXJ HIIHFW ZDV LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH DPRXQW RI VWDQQRXV LRQ LQ WKH NLW DQG WKDW LI WKH NLW ZDV FKDQJHG WR FRQWDLQLQJ KLJKHU OHYHOV RI WLQ WKH SUREOHPGLVDSSHDUHG+ODGLNHWDO
$Q LQWHUHVWLQJ REVHUYDWLRQ PDGH E\ 7DWXP HW DO ZDV WKDW EORRG IURP SDWLHQWV ZKR KDG SUHYLRXVO\ UHFHLYHG LRGLQDWHG FRQWUDVW PHGLD GHPRQVWUDWHG D VXERSWLPDO UHG FHOO ODEHOLQJ HIILFLHQF\0HDQODEHOLQJHIILFLHQF\GHFUHDVHIURP WRVXSSRVHGO\DVDUHVXOWRILQWHUIHUHQFH ZLWKWKHUHGR[SRWHQWLDORIWKHVWDQQRXVLRQ 7KH DXWKRUV UHFRPPHQGHG WKDW VWXGLHV HPSOR\LQJ
'UXJ,QWHUDFWLRQZLWK5DGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
P7F5%& ODEHOLQJ XVLQJ WKLV WHFKQLTXH EH SHUIRUPHG SULRU WR DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI LRGLQDWHG FRQWUDVW PHGLD 0RUHRYHU WKLV HIIHFW VKRXOG EH NHSW LQ PLQG LQ JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO EOHHGLQJ VWXGLHV SHUIRUPHG XVLQJ P7F5%& DV ZHOO DV LQ FDUGLDFLPDJLQJVWXGLHV
2WKHUIDFWRUVWKDWFDQLQIOXHQFHODEHOLQJHIILFLHQF\ LQFOXGHWKHFOLQLFDOFRQGLWLRQRIWKHSDWLHQWDQGWKH XVHRILQWUDYHQRXVFDQQXODVFRQWDLQLQJ7HIORQ,Q WKHLU VHULHV RI SDWLHQWV KHSDULQ DQG FKHPRWKHUDSHXWLF DJHQWV ZHUH IRXQG WR KDYH VLJQLILFDQWDGYHUVHHIIHFWV,WKDVEHHQSRVWXODWHG WKDWKHSDULQPLJKWFRPSHWHZLWKWKHUHGEORRGFHOO IRU WKH ELQGLQJ RI VWDQQRXV LRQ DQG FKHPRWKHUDSHXWLFVDJHQWVPD\FDXVHDOWHUDWLRQVLQ WKHHU\WKURF\WHPHPEUDQH(LVLQJDQG6 FLXN REWDLQHG VDWLVIDFWRU\ LQ YLYR ODEHOLQJ LQ SDWLHQWV UHFHLYLQJ FKHPRWKHUDS\ DQG RYHUFDPH WKH SUREOHPV RI 7HIORQ FDQQXODV E\ XVLQJ D IDVW LQMHFWLRQ RI WKH VWDQQRXV DJHQWV IROORZHG E\ D VDOLQHIOXVK6SLFHUHWDOKDYHGHPRQVWUDWHG WKDWVRPHFKHPRWKHUDSHXWLFGUXJVGRQRWDOWHUWKH ODEHOLQJRIUHGEORRGFHOOVZLWKP7F
9HQWR HW DO KDYH UHSRUWHG YDULRXV GUXJV FDSDEOH WR FRQWULEXWH WR WKH GLUHFW ELQGLQJ RI P7FSHUWHFKQHWDWHWRUHGEORRGFHOOVLQYLYRDV DWHQRORO D EHWD EORFNHU FDUEDPD]HSLQH DQ DQWLFRQYXOVDQWFHOOXORVHILEHUGLVXOILUDPWRWUHDW DOFRKROLVP IOXR[HWLQH K\GURFKORULGH DQ DQWLGHSUHVVDQW ORUD]HSDP DQ DQWLDQ[LHW\ DQG
DQWLGHSUHVVDQW OXEULFDQW H\HV GURSV
PXOWLYLWDPLQV RODQ]DSLQH DQ DQWLSV\FKRWLF UDQLWLGLQHDQ+DQWDJRQLVWDFHWDPLQRSKHQIRU
SDLQ HSLQHSKULQH DXWRLQMHFW
JXDQLIHQVLQPHWKRUIDQ DQ H[SHFWRUDQW
VXSUHVVDQW K\GURFRUWLVRQH FUHDP DQG RUDO
PDJQHVLXPDOXPLQXP K\GUR[LGHV ZLWK
VLPHWKLFRQHDQDQWLJDVDJHQW
7KHXVHRIPHGLFLQDOSODQWVRUQDWX UDOSURGXFWVKDV LQFUHDVHG LQ WKH ODVW GHFDGHV DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG 7KHUH DUH VRPH VWXGLHV DERXW WKH HIIHFW RI WKH PHGLFLQDOSODQWVRQWKHODEHOLQJRIEORRGHOHPHQWV ZLWK P7F 6RPH DXWKRUV KDYH UHSRUWHG WKDW H[WUDFWV RI 7KX\D RFFLGHQWDOLV 2OLYHLUD HW DO 1LFRWLDQD WDEDFXP 9LGDO HW DO 0D\WHQXVLOLFLIROLD 2OLYHLUDHWDOFKD\RWWH 'LUpHWDO *LQNJRELORED 0RUHQRHWDO DQG3DXOOLQLDFXSDQD 2OLYHLUDHWDO DUHFDSDEOHWRPRGLI\WKHELQGLQJRIP7FRQWKH EORRG HOHPHQWV +RZHYHU H[WUDFWV RI 3HXPXV EROGXV 5HLQHJHU HW DO FRXOG DLG WKH ODEHOLQJ RI UHG EORRG FHOOV ZLWK P7F DQG
H[WUDFWVRIFDXOLIORZHU/LPDHWDOGRQRW PRGLI\WKLVODEHOLQJ
'UXJ LQWHUDFWLRQ DQG WKH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
$Q XQH[SHFWHG SDWWHUQV RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQSURYRNHDIOXUU\RILQTXLULHVUHJDUGLQJ WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH DGPLQLVWHUHG DJHQW %XW WKH DOWHUDWLRQVLQELRGLVWULEXWLRQPD\EHUHODWHGWRWKH ',5 +HVVOHZZRRG DQG /HXQJ KDYH UHSRUWHGWKDWYDULRXVGUXJVDUHFDSDEOHWRDOWHUWKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV %ULWWR HW DO XVLQJ DQ DQLPDO PRGHO KDYH
GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW YLQFULVWLQH LQFUHDVHG
VLJQLILFDQWO\ WKH XSWDNH RI WKH P7F '73$ GLHWK\OHQHWULDPLQHSHQWDDFHWLF DFLG LQ WK\PXV RYDU\ XWHUXV VSOHHQ NLGQH\V KHDUW VWRPDFK OXQJVOLYHUDQGERQH9LQFULVWLQHZDVFDSDEOHWR LQFUHDVHWKHEORRGSRRORIWKHUDGLRDFWLYLW\RI*D FLWUDWH+ODGLNHWDO0DWWRVHWDO KDYH YHULILHG WKDW YLQFULVWLQH PRGLI\ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHUDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOP7F SK\WDWHLQ%DOEFPLFH
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
6DQWRV HW DO LQ LQ YLYR VWXGLHV KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWF\FORSKRVSKDPLGHLVFDSDEOHWR
DOWHU WKH HIIHFWLYH KDOIOLIH RI WKH
UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV P7F0'3 DQG P7F SHUWHFKQHWDWH
0DWWRV HW DO KDYH VWXGLHG WKH HIIHFW RI D FKHPRWKHUDSHXWLF GUXJ RQ WKH ELRDYDLODELOLW\ RI P7F0'3 LQ GLIIHUHQW RUJDQV LVRODWHG IURP DQLPDOVWUHDWHGZLWK YLQFULVWLQHDQGKDYHVKRZQD GHFUHDVH RI WKH XSWDNH LQ XWHUXV RYDU\ VSOHHQ WK\PXVO\PSKQRGHV LQJXLQDODQGPHVHQWKHULF NLGQH\OLYHUSDQFUHDVVWRPDFKKHDUWEUDLQDQG ERQH 7KH\ KDYH DOVR VKRZQ WKDW W KH XSWDNH RI P7F3<3S\URSKRVSKDWHGHFUHDVHGLQVSOHHQ WK\PXVO\PSKQRGHV LQJXLQDODQGPHVHQWKHULF NLGQH\ OXQJ OLYHU SDQFUHDV VWRPDFK KHDUW DQG
*RPHV0/HWDO
EUDLQDQGLW LQFUHDVHGLQ ERQHDQGWK\URLGLQWKH WUHDWHGDQLPDOV
0DWWRV HW DO KDYH DOVR UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH XSWDNH RI P7F*+$ JOXFRKHSWRQLF DFLG GHFUHDVHGLQXWHUXVRYDU\VSOHHQWK\PXVO\PSK QRGHVLQJXLQDODQGPHVHQWKHULFNLGQH\DQGKHDUW LVRODWHGIURPDQLPDOVWUHDWHGZLWKYLQFULVWLQH
',6&866,21
,Q WKH SUHVHQFH RI SDWKRSK\VLRORJLF FRQGLWLRQV GXH WR WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKH WLVVXH V WKH QRUPDO ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ DQG HOLPLQDWLRQ SDWWHUQ RI D UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO PD\ EH DOWHUHG 7KLV DOWHUHG ELRORJLFEHKDYLRUGXHWRGLVHDVHVKHOSVDSK\VLFLDQ WR GHILQH D GLDJQRVLV RI D SRVVLEOH GLVHDVH &DUOVVRQ+RZHYHUWKLVDOOWHUHGELRORJLF EHKDYLRUPD\DOVREHGXHWRLQWHUIHUHQFHVFDXVHG E\SKDUPDFRG\QDPLFHIIHFWVRIGUXJV:KHQLWLV XQGHVLUHG LW PD\ EH GXH WR WR[LFLW\ RU GLUHFW
LQWHUDFWLRQ 'XHWRWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKH',5WKHVWXG\RIWKH PRGHOV WR HYDOXDWH WKLV SKHQRPHQRP LV ZRUWKZKLOH$VFDQEHVHHQLQWKH)LJXUHZKHQ WKH',5LVNQRZQLIGHVLUDEOHRUXQGHVLUDEOHWKH QDWXUDO FRQVHTXHQFH LV D FRUUHFW GLDJQRVLV GLDJQRVWLF LQWHUYHQWLRQ RU GUXJ WKHUDS\ PRQLWRULQJ +RZHYHU ZKHQ LV XQNQRZQ LW LV XQGHVLUDEOH DQG WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV DUH W KH
SRVVLELOLW\ RI PLVGLDJQRVLV PLVOHDGLQJ
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
'UXJ,QWHUDFWLRQZLWK5DGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
&RQFHUQLQJWRWKHODEHOLQJRIEORRGHOHPHQWVZLWK P7F WKH H[DFW PHFKDQLVP RI WKH HIIHFW RI QDWXUDODQGV\QWKHWLFVXEVWDQFHVRQWKHODEHOLQJRI UHG EORRG FHOOV LV QRW FRPSOHWHO\ HVWDEOLVKHG +RZHYHU LW PLJKW EH H[SODLQHG L E\ D GLUHFW LQKLELWLRQ FKHODWLQJ DFWLRQ RI WKH UHIHUUHG LRQV LL E\ GDPDJH LQGXFHG LQ WKH SOD VPD PHPEUDQH LLLE\FRPSHWLWLRQRIWKHFLWHGLRQVIRUWKHVDPH ELQGLQJ VLWHV LY E\ SRVVLEOH JHQHUDWLRQ RI UHDFWLYH R[\JHQ VSHFLHV WKDW FRXOG R[LGL]H WKH VWDQQRXVLRQDQGRUYE\GLUHFWR[LGDWLRQRIWKH VWDQQRXVLRQ
,QFRQFOXVLRQWKHNQRZOHGJHDER XWWKH',5LVYHU\ LPSRUWDQW WR VHFXUH DQG VDIH GLDJQRVLV DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI ELRORJLFDO PRGHOV WR VWXG\ WKLV SKHQRPHQRQLVKLJKO\UHOHYDQWDQGGHVLUHG
$&.12:/('*0(176
7KH DXWKRUV WKDQN)$3(5-&13TDQG 8(5-IRU WKHVXSSRUW
5(6802
$ HYLGrQFLD GH TXH GURJDV QDWXUDLV RX VLQWpWLFDV
SRGHP DIHWDU D UDGLRPDUFDomR RX D
ELRGLVSRQLELOLGDGH GH UDGLRIiUPDFRV QRV
SURFHGLPHQWRV GH PHGLFLQD QXFOHDU Mi p EHP FRQKHFLGD(QWUHWDQWRHVVDLQWHUDomRGHGURJDFRP UDGLRIiUPDFRV ,'5 QmR HVWi FRPSOHWDPHQWH FRPSUHHQGLGD9iULRVDXWRUHVWrPGHVFULWRRHIHLWR GH GURJDV QD PDUFDomR GH HOHPHQWRV VDQJXtQHRV FRPWHFQpFLRPP7FHQDELRGLVWULEXLomRGH UDGLRIiUPDFRV 4XDQGR D ,'5 p FRQKHFLGD VH GHVHMDGD RX LQGHVHMDGD D FRQVHTrQFLD QDWXUDO p XP GLDJQyVWLFR FRUUHWR 4XDQGR D ,'5 p GHVFRQKHFLGDHODpLQGHVHMDGDHDVFRQVHTrQFLDV VmRDSRVVLELOLGDGHGHGLDJQyVWLFRLPSUHFLVRHRXD UHSHWLomR GR H[DPH FRP XP DXPHQWR GH GRVH GH UDGLDomRSDUDRSDFLHQWH$VSRVVtYHLVH[SOLFDo}HV SDUDRDSDUHFLPHQWRGD,'5VmRDPRGLILFDomR GR UDGLRIiUPDFR E DOWHUDomR GD HILFLrQFLD GH PDUFDomR GR UDGLRIiUPDFR F PRGLILFDomR GR DOYRGPRGLILFDomRGRQmRDOYRHRXHDOWHUDomR GD OLJDomR GR UDGLRIiUPDFR DRV HOHPHQWRV VDQJXtQHRV 2 HIHLWR GH GURJDV QD PDUFDomR GH HOHPHQWRV VDQJXtQHRV FRP P7F SRGHULD VHU H[SOLFDGR SRU L XPD GLUHWD LQLELomR DomR TXHODQWH GRV tRQV HVWDQRVR H SHUWHFQHWDWR LL GDQRV QD PHPEUDQD HULWURFLWiULD LLL FRPSHWLomR
GRVUHIHULGRVtRQVSHORVPHVPRVVtWLRVGHOLJDomR LY SRVVtYHO JHUDomR GH HVSpFLHV UHDWLYDV GH R[LJrQLRHRXGLUHWDR[LGDomRGRtRQHVWDQRVR(P FRQFOXVmR R GHVHQYROYLPHQWR GH PRGHORV ELROyJLFRV SDUD R HVWXGR GD ,'5 p DOWDPHQWH UHOHYDQWH
5()(5(1&(6
%HUQDUGR)LOKR0&DQLQp06/RSHV5/)DQG %RDVTXHYLVTXH ( 0 (IIHFW RI WHPSHUDWXUH RQ WKH ³LQ YLWUR´ ODEHOLQJ RI UHG EORRG FHOOV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP$UT%LRO7HFQRO %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 *XWILOHQ % DQG 0DFLHO 2 6
(IIHFW RI GLIIHUHQW DQWLFRDJXODQWV RQ WKH ODEHOOLQJRIUHGEORRGFHOOVDQGSODVPDSURWHLQVZLWK 7FP1XFO0HG&RPP
%HUQDUGR)LOKR00RXUD,16DQG%RDVTXHYLVTXH ( 0 7HFKQHWLXPP ODEHOHG UHG EORRG FHOOVLQYLWUR´$UT%LRO7HFQRO %UDJD $ & 6 2OLYHLUD 0 % 1 )HOLFLDQR * '
5HLQLJHU , : 2OLYHLUD - ) 6LOYD & 5 DQG %HUQDUGR)LOKR07KHHIIHFWRIGUXJVRQWKH ODEHOLQJ RI EORRG HOHPHQWV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP &XUU3KDUP'HVLJQ
%ULWWR ' 0 0 *RPHV 0 / 5RGULJXHV 3 & 3DXOD ( ) *XWILOHQ % DQG %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI WKH FKHPRWKHUDSHXWLF GUXJV RQ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RIP7F'73$ LQ %DOEF PLFH -
([S&OLQ&DQFHU5HV
&DOODKDQ5-DQG5DELWR&$5DGLRODEHOLQJ RI HU\WKURF\WHV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP UROH RI EDQG SURWHLQ LQ WKH WUDQVSRUW RI SHUWHFKQHWDWH DFURVV WKH FHOOPHPEUDQH-1XFO0HG &DUOVVRQ6$JODQFHDWWKHKLVWRU\RIQXFOHDU PHGLFLQH$FWD2QFRO &KDQGUD 5 1XFOHDU 0HGLFLQH 3K\VLFV WKH %DVLFVWKHGLWLRQ1HZ<RUN:LOOLDPV :LONLQV &KHQ:/3HUQJ0<+ZHL'=DQG<X0' 7KHUDSHXWLF GUXJ PRQLWRULQJ FDQ DYRLG LDWURJHQLF DOWHUDWLRQV FDXVHG E\ P7FPHWK\OHQH
GLSKRVSKRQDWH 0'3JHQWDPLFLQ LQWHUDFWLRQ -1XFO%LRO0HG 6XSSO
'LUp*/LPD(0DWWRV'2OLYHLUD0%3HUHLUD 0 - 0RUHQR 6 )UHLWDV 5 *RPHV 0 / DQG %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI FKD\RWWH 6HFKLXP HGXOH H[WUDFW RQ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI WHFKQHWLXPP DQG RQ WKH PRUSKRPHWU\ RI UHG EORRG FHOOV - /DEHO &RPSGV 5DGLRSKDUV 66
(DUO\ 3 - DQG 6RGHH ' % 3ULQFLSOHV DQG 3UDFWLFHRI1XFOHDU0HGLFLQH7RURQWR0RVE\ <HDU %RRN,QF
*RPHV0/HWDO
(LVLQJ(*DQG6FLXN-)DLOXUHWRODEHOUHG EORRG FHOOV DGHTXDWHO\ LQ GDLO\ SUDFWLFH XVLQJ DQ LQ YLYR PHWKRG PHWKRGRORJLFDO DQG FOLQLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV(XU-1XFO0HG *RPHV0/%UDJD$&0DWWRV'0)UHLWDV5
6 3DXOD ( ) %H]HUUD 5 - $ & DQG %HUQDUGR )LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI WKH PLWRP\FLQ& RQ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO P7HFKQHWLXPSK\WLF DFLG LQ PLFH D PRGHO WR HYDOXDWHWKHWR[LFHIIHFWRIDFKHPLFDOGUXJ-$SSO 7R[LFRO
*RPHV 0 / %UDJD $ & 6 0DWWRV ' 0 0 )UHLWDV 5 6 %RDVTXHYLVTXH ( 0 DQG %HUQDUGR )LOKR 0 0LWRP\FLQ& HIIHFW RQ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO WHFKQHWLXPPPHWK\OHQHGLSKRVSKRQLF DFLG LQ EDOEFPLFH1XFO0HG&RPPXQ *RPHV 0 / 0DWWRV ' 0 0 )UHLWDV 5 6
%H]HUUD-5$&DQG%HUQDUGR)LOKR0 6WXG\ RI WKH WR[LFRORJLFDO HIIHFW RI PLWRP\FLQ & LQ PLFH DOWHUDWLRQ RQ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV XVHG IRU UHQDO HYDOXDWLRQV +XP([S7R[LFRO
+DUEHUW - & (FNHOPDQ : & DQG 1HXPDQQ 5 ' 1XFOHDU 0HGLFLQH 'LDJQRVLV DQG WKHUDS\ 7KLHPH0HGLFDO3XEOLVKHUV1HZ<RUN
+HVVOHZRRG6DQG/HXQJ('UXJLQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWK UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV (XU - 1XFO 0HG
+ODGLN ,,, : % 1LJJ . . ( DQG 5KRGHV % $ 'UXJLQGXFHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH ELRORJLF GLVWULEXWLRQ RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV 6HPLQ 1XFO 0HG
+ODGLN,,,:%6DKD*%DQG6WXG\.7 (VVHQWLDOVRI1XFOHDU0HGLFLQH6FLHQFH:LOOLDPDQG :LONLQV/RQGRQ
+RMHOVH&.ULVWHQVHQ.DQG6DPSVRQ&% ,Q 6DPSVRQ &% HG 7H[WERRN RI 5DGLRSKDUPDF\ 7KHRU\DQG3UDFWLFH/RQGRQ
+XQJ * / -DPHV $ 3 DQG +DPPHV 5 - 5DGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV UHODWHG SLWIDOOV DQG DUWLIDFWV 6HPLQ1XFO0HG /HH+%:H[OHU-36FKDUI6&DQG%ODXIR[0 ' 3KDUPDFRORJLF DOWHUDWLRQV LQ 7FP ELQGLQJE\UHGEORRGFHOOVFRQFLVHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ- 1XFO0HG /LPD($&'LUp*0DWWRV'00)UHLWDV5 *RPHV0/2OLYHLUD0%)DULD09&-DOHV 5 / DQG %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI DQ H[WUDFWRIFDXOLIORZHUOHDIRQWKHODEHOLQJRIEORRG HOHPHQWVZLWKWHFKQHWLXPPDQGRQWKH VXUYLYDORI (VFKHULFKLD FROL $% VXEPLWWHG WR WKH WUHDWPHQW ZLWK VWDQQRXV FKORULGH )RRG &KHP 7R[LFRO
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
0DWWRV ' 0 0 *RPHV 0 / )UHLWDV 5 6 5RGULJXHV3&3DXOD()DQG%HUQDUGR)LOKR0 $ PRGHO WR HYDOXDWH WKH ELRORJLFDO HIIHFW RI QDWXUDO SURGXFWV YLQFULVWLQH DFWLRQ RQ WKH ELRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV LQ %DOEF IHPDOHPLFH-$SSO7R[LFRO
0RUHQR 6 5 ) )HOLFLDQR * ' )UHLWDV 5 6 0DWWRV ' 0 *RPHV 0 / )DUDK 0 % /DXUHQWLQR)LOKR * 5RFKD ( . DQG %HUQDUGR )LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI*LQNJRELORED RQWKHLQ YLWUR ODEHOLQJRIUHGEORRGFHOOVDQGSODVPDSURWHLQV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP - /DEHO &RPSG DQG 5DGLRSK66
2OLYHLUD-)%UDJD$&6ÈYLOD$6)RQVHFD /0%*XWILOHQ%DQG%HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI 7K\XD RFFLGHQWDOLV RQ WKH ODEHOLQJ RI UHG EORRG FHOOV DQG SODVPD SURWHLQV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXP P<DOH-RI%LRO0HG
2OLYHLUD - ) %UDJD $ & 6 2OLYHLUD 0 % 1 ÈYLOD $ 6 &DOGHLUDGH$UD~MR $ 1DVFLPHQWR & 9 %H]HUUD 5 -DQG %HUQDUGR)LOKR0 (IIHFWRI0D\WHQXVLOLFLIROLD HVSLQKHLUDVDQWDH[WUDFW RQ WKH ODEHOLQJ RI UHG EORRG FHOOV DQG SODVPD SURWHLQV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP - (WKQRSKDUPDFRO 2OLYHLUD-)$YLOD$6%UDJD$&62OLYHLUD 0 % 1 %RDVTXHYLVTXH ( 0 -DOHV 5 / &DUGRVR91DQG%HUQDUGR)LOKR0(IIHFW RIH[WUDFWRIPHGLFLQDOSODQWVRQWKHODEHOLQJRIEORRG HOHPHQWV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP DQG RQ WKH PRUSKRORJ\ RI UHG EORRG FHOOV , ± D VWXG\ ZLWK 3DXOOLQLDFXSDQD)LWRWHUDSLD
2ZXQZDQQH $ 3DWHO 0 DQG 6DGHN 6 3UHSDUDWLRQ RI UDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV 7KH KDQGERRN RIUDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV/RQGRQ&KDSPDQ +DOO 2ZXQZDQQH $ 6KLKDE(OGHHQ $ <DFRXE 7 DQG
=LDGD*7KHXVHRIUDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVDV DQ HIIHFWLYH WR[LFRORJLF WHFKQLTXH IRU VWXG\LQJ QHSKURWR[LFLW\ RI GUXJV F\FORVSRULQH$ +XP ([S 7R[LFRO
'UXJ,QWHUDFWLRQZLWK5DGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
3DVVRV 0 & ) 5DPRV & ) %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 0DWWRV'0DQG0RXUD(* 7KHHIIHFWRI SURWHLQRUHQHUJ\UHVWULFWLRQRQWKHELRGLVWULEXWLRQRI 1DP7F2
LQ:LVWDUUDWV1XFO0HG&RPP
3DVVRV 0 & ) 5DPRV & ) 'XWUD 6 & 3 %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 DQG 0RXUD (* %LRGLVWULEXWLRQ RI 1DP7F2 FKDQJHV LQ DGXOW UDWV ZKRVHPRWKHUVZHUHPDOQRXULVKHGGXULQJODFWDWLRQ- 1XFO0HG 3HUNLQV$DQG)ULHU01XFOHDU0HGLFLQHLQ 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO5HVHDUFK7D\ORU )UDQFLV/RQGRQ 5HLQHJHU,:2OLYHLUD-)&DOGHLUDGH$UD~MR $
DQG %HUQDUGR)LOKR 0 (IIHFW RI 3HXPXV EROGXVRQWKHODEHOLQJRIUHGEORRGFHOOVDQGSODVPD SURWHLQVZLWKWHFKQHWLXPP$SS5DGLDW,VRW
6DKD * % )XQGDPHQWDOV RI 1XFOHDU 3KDUPDF\1HZ<RUN6SULQJHU9HUODJ
6DPSVRQ & % $GYHUVH UHDFWLRQV DQG GUXJ LQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKUDGLRSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV'UXJ6DIHW\
6DPSVRQ & % &RPSOLFDWLRQV DQG GLIILFXOWLHV LQ UDGLRODEHOOLQJ EORRG FHOOV $ UHYLHZ 1XFO 0HG &RPP
6DQWRV-63DXOD ()&RUUHD7*)UHLWDV/& )RQVHFD/0*XWILOHQ%DQG%HUQDUGR)LOKR0 (IIHFW RI F\FORSKRVSKDPLGH RQ WKH ELQGLQJ RI P7F2 DQG P7F0'3 WR EORRG FHOOV DQG
SODVPD SURWHLQV %UD] - 0HG %LRO 5HV
6SLFHU - $ +ODGLN : % DQG 0XOEHUU\ : ( 7KH HIIHFWV RI VHOHFWHG DQWLQHRSODVWLF DJHQWV RQ WKH ODEHOLQJ RI HU\WKURF\WHV ZLWK WHFKQHWLXPP XVLQJWKH8OWUD7DJ5%&NLW-1XFO0HG7HFKQRO
6ULYDVWDYD6&6WUDXE5)DQG5LFKDUGV3 0HFKDQLVWLF DVSHFWV RI WKH WHFKQHWLXPPWLQ5%& ODEHOLQJ UHDFWLRQV - /DEHO &RPS 5DGLRSK
7DWXP-/%XUNH76+LUVFK-,0LOOHU:: DQG)UDWNLQ0-3LWIDOOWRPRGLILHGLQYLYR PHWKRG RI WHFKQHWLXPP UHG EORRG FHOO ODEHOLQJ ,RGLQDWHG FRQWUDVW PHGLD &OLQ 1XFO 0HG
9HQWR - $ 6ZLQJ / 6 DQG 6SHQFHU 5 3 3HUVLVWHQW ELQGLQJ RI 7FP SHUWHFKQHWDWH WR HU\WKURF\WHV LQ D SDWLHQW UHFHLYLQJ PXOWLSOH SKDUPDFHXWLFDOV&OLQ1XFO0HG 9LGDO09*XWILOHQ%%DUERVDGD)RQVHFD/0 DQG%HUQDUGR)LOKR0,QIOXHQFHRIWREDFFR RQWKHODEHOLQJRIUHGEORRGFHOOVDQGSODVPDSURWHLQV ZLWKWHFKQHWLXPP-([S&OLQ&DQFHU5HV 5HFHLYHG -XO\ 5HYLVHG-XO\ $FFHSWHG-XO\