(Mining & Metals)
Helcio S. Takeda Head of Commodities Research
(Mining & Metals)
55 (11) 3582 5509 hstakeda@pezco.com.br
May 2015
Summary
Global Metals Monthly Outlook:
Prices rebound as US Dollar weakens
The change in the prices of non-ferrous metals was positive in April. The price of lead and zinc negotiated at the LME increased sharply – respectively 17.5% and 13.5%. Nickel climbed 11.2% and primary aluminum, 6.7%. Price of copper rose for the 3rd month in a row (3.2%). Tin kept the bearish trend (-4.2%), 5th consecutive decrease. In the year (January to April), lead is the top performer, followed by zinc and aluminum. The jump in the price of lead and zinc in the last month helped to revert the negative performance observed in the year up to March. Tin replaced nickel as the worst performer of the year.
On the macro side, some indicators have supported a view that the US Federal Reserve might postpone the beginning of the rising interest rate cycle. While the US economy is still in a good shape, two relevant indicators were weaker than expected. The advance estimate of the US GDP, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed a sluggish 0.2% s.a.a.r. in the Q1 2015. Besides, The US Labor Department reported an increase of 223,000 in the non-farm payroll, below market expectations.
In a broad view, monetary policy stance has become more accommodative. It has not changed in the Euro region and in Japan. In China, it has been eased. And in the USA, Federal Reserve has suggested a less hawkish mode, increasing the likelihood of the rising interest rate cycle to start sometime between the end of this year and the beginning of the next.
As a consequence, the US dollar index (DXY) has loosened track recently. We still believe DXY strengthening cycle is not over and it will resume sometime in the near future. Nevertheless, since the DXY and the price of base metals are negatively correlated, the recent weakness of the US dollar is supportive for the increase in the price of non-ferrous metals.
The change in the prices of non-ferrous metals was positive in April. The price of lead and zinc negotiated at the LME increased sharply – respectively 17.5% and 13.5%. Nickel climbed 11.2% and primary aluminum, 6.7%. Price of copper rose for the 3rd month in a row (3.2%). Tin kept the bearish trend (-4.2%), 5th consecutive decrease. In the year (January to April), lead is the top performer, followed by zinc and aluminum. The jump in the price of lead and zinc in the last month helped to revert the negative performance observed in the year up to March. Tin replaced nickel as the worst performer of the year. May 2015 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000 11.000 ja n/ 03 se t/ 03 m ai /04 ja n/ 05 se t/ 05 m ai /06 ja n/ 07 se t/ 07 m ai /08 ja n/ 09 se t/ 09 m ai /10 ja n/ 11 se t/ 11 m ai /12 ja n/ 13 se t/ 13 m ai /14 ja n/ 15
Copper (Cash Settl., USD/ton)
Source: LME 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 ja n/ 03 se t/ 03 m ai /04 ja n/ 05 se t/ 05 m ai /06 ja n/ 07 se t/ 07 m ai /08 ja n/ 09 se t/ 09 m ai /10 ja n/ 11 se t/ 11 m ai /12 ja n/ 13 se t/ 13 m ai /14 ja n/ 15
Aluminium (Cash Settl., USD/ton)
Prices rebound as US Dollar weakens
Chart 1. Price of base metals
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 ja n/ 03 se t/ 03 m ai /04 ja n/ 05 se t/ 05 m ai /06 ja n/ 07 se t/ 07 m ai /08 ja n/ 09 se t/ 09 m ai /10 ja n/ 11 se t/ 11 m ai /12 ja n/ 13 se t/ 13 m ai /14 ja n/ 15
Zinc (Cash Settl., USD/ton)
Source: LME 1.000 11.000 21.000 31.000 41.000 51.000 61.000 ja n/ 03 se t/ 03 m ai /04 ja n/ 05 se t/ 05 m ai /06 ja n/ 07 se t/ 07 m ai /08 ja n/ 09 se t/ 09 m ai /10 ja n/ 11 se t/ 11 m ai /12 ja n/ 13 se t/ 13 m ai /14 ja n/ 15
Nickel (Cash Settl., USD/ton)
Source: LME 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 ja n/ 03 se t/ 03 m ai /04 ja n/ 05 se t/ 05 m ai /06 ja n/ 07 se t/ 07 m ai /08 ja n/ 09 se t/ 09 m ai /10 ja n/ 11 se t/ 11 m ai /12 ja n/ 13 se t/ 13 m ai /14 ja n/ 15
Lead (Cash Settl., USD/ton)
Source: LME 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 ja n/ 03 se t/ 03 m ai /04 ja n/ 05 se t/ 05 m ai /06 ja n/ 07 se t/ 07 m ai /08 ja n/ 09 se t/ 09 m ai /10 ja n/ 11 se t/ 11 m ai /12 ja n/ 13 se t/ 13 m ai /14 ja n/ 15
Tin (Cash Settl., USD/ton)
May 2015
In the opposite direction to the non-ferrous metals, the price of China import iron ore (62% Fe) dropped for the 9th month in a row in April, from $56.94 to $51.15, although recovering from the bottom of $46.70. 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 120,0 140,0 160,0 180,0 200,0 ja n/ 05 ju l/05 ja n/ 06 ju l/06 ja n/ 07 ju l/07 ja n/ 08 ju l/08 ja n/ 09 ju l/09 ja n/ 10 ju l/10 ja n/ 11 ju l/11 ja n/ 12 ju l/12 ja n/ 13 ju l/13 ja n/ 14 ju l/14 ja n/ 15
China import Iron Ore (USD mT)
source: IMF
Chart 2. Price of iron ore
Macro fundamentals
On the macro side, some indicators have supported a view that the US Federal Reserve might postpone the beginning of the rising interest rate cycle.
While the US economy is still in a good shape, two relevant indicators were weaker than expected. The advance estimate of the US GDP, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed a sluggish 0.2% s.a.a.r. in the Q1 2015, far lower than the growth rate observed in the Q4 2014 (2.2%) and the market consensus (1%).
Besides, the US Labor Department reported an increase of 223,000 in the non-farm payroll for the month of April, following a revised 85,000 increase in March. Both came in below market expectations. When we analyze 12-month moving average, it looks payroll peaked in February and has slowed down since then, although stays above 200,000 monthly level.
The other meaningful point is the trend observed in the price indices. Readings of the US consumer price index have slowed to 0% in the YoY comparison, well below the 2% targeted by the FED. Excluding food and energy, CPI has run close or below 2% target since Q4 2012. The disinflationary energy price may contribute to keep a subdued core inflation, as cost of production will not be pressured.
Moreover, the disinflationary/deflationary picture can be seen in many other economies as well, as a consequence of the collapse in the prices of relevant commodities, especially oil.
2015-I (April 2015)
Chart 3. Consumer price index (selected countries)
The Chinese GDP grew 7% YoY in the Q1 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. Beijing has announced some measures to stimulate the economy. PBoC slashed reserve requirement ratio from 19.5% to 18.5% and the benchmark lending interest rate was lowered from 5.35% p.a. to 5.10% p.a., the third cut in 6 months. Furthermore, PBoC has set its own quantitative easing. Banks will be allowed to access lending facilities with the Central Bank, using local government bonds as collateral – a way to help local governments in rolling over debt. In a broad view, monetary policy stance has become more accommodative. It has not changed in the Euro region and in Japan. In China, it has been eased. And in the USA, Federal Reserve has suggested a less hawkish mode, increasing the likelihood of the rising interest rate cycle to start sometime between the end of this year and the beginning of the next.
As a consequence, the US dollar index (DXY) has loosened track recently. We still believe DXY strengthening cycle is not over and it will resume sometime in the near future. Nevertheless, since the DXY and the price of base metals are negatively correlated, the recent weakness of the US dollar is supportive for the increase in the price of non-ferrous metals. -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% ja n/ 09 m ai /09 se t/ 09 ja n/ 10 m ai /10 se t/ 10 ja n/ 11 m ai /11 se t/ 11 ja n/ 12 m ai /12 se t/ 12 ja n/ 13 m ai /13 se t/ 13 ja n/ 14 m ai /14 se t/ 14 ja n/ 15
Consumer Price Index (% chg, YoY)
USA China Japan EU
Chart 4. US dollar index (DXY) & price of non-ferrous metals
-0,5%0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5% ja n/ 10 m ai /10 se t/ 10 ja n/ 11 m ai /11 se t/ 11 ja n/ 12 m ai /12 se t/ 12 ja n/ 13 m ai /13 se t/ 13 ja n/ 14 m ai /14 se t/ 14 ja n/ 15
US Consumer Price Index (% chg, YoY)
All Items Core
0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 U SD/ m T DXY
Price of Copper (Y) versus Dollar Index DXY (X)
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 U SD/ m T DXY
Price of Aluminium (Y) versus Dollar Index DXY (X)
2015-I (April 2015)
Table 1. Price Forecast
Given that, we expect the rebound in the price of non-ferrous metals to be sustained in the short term.
Amongst the metals, we have been more bullish with zinc and aluminum. In the case of zinc, mines’ exhaustion will maintain some smelters short of zinc ore. For aluminum, energy costs in Brazil may keep production narrowing. In the rest of the world, subdued prices may not help the development of important projects.
In the case of copper, market balance looks likely to turn more favorable for a price increase. Nevertheless, we do not expect further meaningful upside in the price. For nickel, we expect recent rally to fade, in spite of current prices hurting profitability of NPI producers in China, suggesting a decrease in the global supply - but demand has not been strong.
In the case of iron ore, we expect price to stay between $50.00 to $55.00 range. Although largest miners to be prone to cut production, market balance will remain oversupplied, pushing prices below recently observed $60.00 level.
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 U SD/ m T DXY
Price of Nickel (Y) versus Dollar Index DXY (X)
0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 U SD/ m T DXY
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