Top PDF RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MONETARY STABILITY

RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MONETARY STABILITY

RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS FOR THE MONETARY STABILITY

2008, and which had originally propagated through the interbanking 1 market channel, following the route towards the financial market and the real economy. This shock has led to increased uncertainty and risk aversion of investors, causing a qualitative distinction made by them. Thus, the investors have treated differently the debts of the euro area countries. So, they have reorientated from the countries with high economic growth (Ireland, Spain, Portugal) towards those with slower economic growth, but who had enjoyed long-term macroeconomic stability and institutional maturity (Germany). Thus, investors have quickly changed preferences for risky assets, the demand for low-risk instruments increasing significantly, although yields on these securities are lower. This generated the change of the liquidity level in the two groups of countries. In addition, i nvestors’ behavior with consequences in the direction of lower inflows of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the countries considered risky brought about the adjustment of the current account deficit (given that FDI are an important source for financing the external deficit) (Criste, Milea, Ailincă, 2013).
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Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting.

Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting.

tional target misses. Inflation targeting central banks make use of all useful information available to the forecasting of inflation and then to set their main instrument (the interest rate) at each date so that the forecast of inflation and the observed inflation equal their target levels. Although inflation targeting was criticized as being non-operational since it does not emphasize and make use of directly observed intermediate targets (such as the money stock), the regime do use an intermediate target. This intermediate target is an inferred quantity – the current forecast of infla- tion at the target horizon. Inflation targeting central banks are often at- tempting to influence inflation expectations – through interest rates set- tings – since “self-fulfilling prophecies” represent a phenomenon that must not be neglected; besides, they are often concerned on establishing cred- ibility for their tactics and policies in order to better influence inflation expectations and improve monetary policy effectiveness. Regarding target misses, sometimes they are accidental, but other times they are the result of bad policies. 29
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EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND - BETWEEN ILLUSION AND FUTURE INSTRUMENT FOR EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY

EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND - BETWEEN ILLUSION AND FUTURE INSTRUMENT FOR EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY

Euro area annual inflation was 1.4% in March 2010, up from 0.9% in February, compared with the value recorded a year earlier the rate - 0.6%. The lowest 12-month averages up to March 2010 were registered in Ireland (-2.3%), Portugal (-0.8%) and Estonia (-0.7%), and the highest in Romania (5.0%), Hungary (4.8%) and Poland (3.9%) 477 .As shown above, macroeconomic indicators worsened in the last 2 years, suggesting the profound implication of financial crises in majority of the European States. These data indicates that actual European Union economic and financial mechanisms are still inadequate to face financial crises. As some authors suggested 478 , related to monetary policy of European Central Bank, an imperfect functioning may cause disproportionate inflation, while wrong fiscal policy decisions, such the excessive deficit procedure may induce a threat of sovereign default. It appears that Greece is the weakest, given its high public debt (about 120% of GDP) compounded by a government budget deficit of almost 13% of GDP, a massive external deficit of 11% of GDP, and the loss of credibility from its repeated cheating on budget reports.
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THE PRO AND CONS OF THE NEW TREATY ON STABILITY, COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE IN THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION

THE PRO AND CONS OF THE NEW TREATY ON STABILITY, COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE IN THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION

For Romania, the sensitivity parameters were estimated as: 0.28 for revenues and 0.02 for budgetary expenditure, resulting a total sensitivity parameter (ε) equal to 0.3 (Larch and Turrini, 2009). Estimating the structural budget deficit is made, either based on the Blanchard methodology (Blanchard and al., 1990) – consisting in the direct estimation of cyclically adjusted revenues and expenses by using regression analysis, or using the alternative methodology proposed by Carine Bouthevillain and all in 2001, which shows that estimation of budgetary components’ elasticity is made by reporting directly to the relevant macroeconomic bases (GDP, private consumption, government consumption and so on) rather than output - gap, thus taking into account the changes that occur in the structure of aggregate demand and revenues.
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Nonlinear Equilibrium and Stability Analysis of Axially Loaded Piles Under Bilateral Contact Constraints

Nonlinear Equilibrium and Stability Analysis of Axially Loaded Piles Under Bilateral Contact Constraints

Classical references on structural stability (Brush and Almroth, 1975; Simitses and Hodges, 2006) involve analytical solutions of piles under contact constraints imposed by Winkler-type foundations. These solutions provide the pinned-pile critical load expression as a function of the number of half-wave imperfection mode and the dimensionless foundation parameter. Ai and Han (2009) and Ai and Yue (2009) studied the behavior of piles embedded in a multi-layered soil and subjected to axial load. Researchers have also examined such subjects as load-deflection response, stability analysis, and the buckling and initial post-buckling behavior of bilaterally constrained piles, as found in Fazelzadeh and Kazemi-Lari (2013), Challamel (2011), Chen and Baker (2003), Sironic et al. (1999), Chai (1998), Budkowska (1997a,b), Budkowska and Szymczak (1997), West et al. (1997), and Naidu and Rao (1995). Recently, Tzaros and Mistakidis (2011) presented the critical loads and buckling modes of columns under unilateral contact constraints. Limkatanyu and Spacone (2002, 2006) presented three formulations of frame elements with nonlinear lateral deformable supports. To analyze the problem of a pile partially buried in an elastic medium, Aljanabi et al. (1990) developed a contact finite element that took into account the normal stiff- ness of soil and the soil-structure friction. Badie and Salmon (1996) solved the same problem but by using a quadratic order elastic foundation finite element. Besides the normal stiffness of soil and the soil-structure friction, they considered the interaction between the individual springs, such as those used in the Pasternak-type foundation model.
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The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania

The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania

Habit in consumption coefficient decreases to a value of 66% showing a decrease in the backward component of consumption behaviour. The share of the Ricardian agents in the economy reaches 67%, a value that is consistent with studies for the euro area economy. The fact that this share has increased due to the development of financial markets bank in Romania, for example, the Hungarian economy, Jakab (2008) sets the parameter to 75% of quantification based on a survey of consumers interacting with the banking system. Elasticity of substitution in consumption parameter register the same value close to 2. For the learning parameter it has been assigned a value of 0.2 a priori and the result is 0.16 for the first regime. What can be seen in the second regime is a decrease of this parameter to 0.08. This practice emphasizes that learning adaptive parameter decreased considerably with the transition to inflation targeting regime.
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A macro-econometric diagnosis of the Keynesian propositions of the money demand function in Malawi: An error-correction approach

A macro-econometric diagnosis of the Keynesian propositions of the money demand function in Malawi: An error-correction approach

The institution of sound monetary policies largely depends on a good understanding of the money demand function. While there have been studies to understand the behaviour of the money demand function in general, critical analyses solely devoted to testing Keynesian propositions, particularly in developing countries, are rare. Using data from 1970 to 2005, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) procedure to test for non-stationarity and the Johansen procedure to test for a long-run equilibrium relationship among economic fundamentals. Due to non- stationarity of variables an error-correction mechanism is used to characterise the money demand function in Malawi. Although the income elasticity of money demand bears the expected positive sign, contrary to Keynes’ contentions, the study finds a stable demand function and an inelastic interest rate elasticity of money demand. The level of financial development and exchange rates are also found significant in influencing money demand in Malawi. Vital policy implications can be drawn from the results. First, monetary policy should be undertaken bearing in mind the stability of the money demand function and the less than proportionate response of money demand to interest rate changes. Second, policies to improve the functioning of the financial sector are indispensable. Nonetheless, such policies should be supported by prudent exchange rate management to check currency substitution.
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A numerical approach for equilibrium and stability analysis of slender arches and rings under contact constraints

A numerical approach for equilibrium and stability analysis of slender arches and rings under contact constraints

In the last few years, several papers have been published deal- ing mainly with the behavior of beams and plates resting on a ten- sionless foundation. For example, geotechnical applications where the soil-structure interaction is highlighted can be found in Mezaini (2006), Küçükarslan and Banerjee (2005), Maheshwari et al. (2004) and Silva et al. (2001). Recently, many papers were published con- cerning the nonlinear dynamic response of beams and thin and moderately thick plates resting on a Winkler or Pasternak-type tensionless foundation (Celep et al., 2011; Cosßkun et al., 2011; Cosßkun, 2010; Hsu, 2009; Yu et al., 2006; Güler and Celep, 2005; Celep and Güler, 2004). Numerical approximations involving the buckling and post-buckling behavior of beams and plates under unilateral contact constraints imposed by elastic foundation ap- pear in several papers (Tzaros and Mistakidis, 2011; Sapountzakis and Kampitsis, 2010; Silveira et al., 2008; Muradova and Stavroulakis, 2006; Shen and Li, 2004; Shen and Yu, 2004; Shen and Teng, 2004; Holanda and Gonçalves, 2003; Silveira and Gonçalves, 2001). Wang et al. (2005) provide a state of the art review for beams and plates on elastic foundation, including soil modeling as well as analytical and numerical possibilities for solving this class of contact problem.
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Taylor rule in Brazil

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specif- ically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (see Woodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.
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Isabel Mendes Social risks of forest fires: a methodological proposal for their monetary evaluation

Isabel Mendes Social risks of forest fires: a methodological proposal for their monetary evaluation

The major forest fires are responsible for intensive and extensive destruction, which interlinks with extremely high and varied levels of ecological, economic and social losses of considerable monetary value that are not only incurred during the fire itself but also over a temporal period that extends far beyond the putting out of the fire. Burned wood and timber holds a lower market value. Homes and infrastructures remain damaged or destroyed. Both the wood based and the other non-timber forest based products, such as cork, mushrooms, honey, herbs and plants for medicinal, culinary or industrial purposes, for example, are also subject to either destruction or non-production with the corresponding negative outcomes. The families and individuals who regularly use the forested environments to produce and benefit from recreational services experience a downturn in their wellbeing over the short, medium and long terms all the while the ecosystems have yet to recover. The prevailing biodiversity gets destroyed or damaged, which reflects in the loss of natural environments and, in some cases, the irreversible destruction of the species, especially whenever forested areas of great ecological wealth and under legal protection get burned down. Forest fires cause damage, to a greater or lesser extent irreversible, in the biological functioning of the forestry ecosystems, which negatively influences their natural capacities for self-regeneration and, therefore, for sustainability. The carbon stored in the tree trunks, branches, leaves and roots gets released into the atmosphere. The ecological services naturally produced by the forest ecosystems are thrown into jeopardy. The dangers of soil erosion rise significantly; the quality of natural services regulating the surfaces and subterranean hydrological systems supplied by the forest ecosystems are also at risk in addition to cutting back on the fixing of greenhouse gas emissions and levels of oxygen production.
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Monetary stability and ECLAC: the heterogeneity of developmental structuralist doctrine of Latin America

Monetary stability and ECLAC: the heterogeneity of developmental structuralist doctrine of Latin America

ABsTrACT : The paper evaluates the assumption of a homogeneous theory of monetary stabilization in early Latin American structuralist economics. starting in the 1950s, the growing and continuous inflationary problem in the region was seen as a result of bottlenecks within the productive structure. however, the channels that transmit such imbalances onto prices are framed quite distinctly amongst the aforementioned writers, with implications regarding their policy suggestions. The paper underlines a methodological flexibility, which engendered a fragmented theoretical framework of analysis, and the notion that inflation was part of the process of economic development. The combination of both elements unveiled an analytical deficiency within ECLA ’s theory of monetary stabilization. As a result, there arose a tension between Prebisch’s Anglo-Saxon Keynesian view and the original theory proposed by Noyola and Furtado. The paper traces the nature of such disparities and the extent to which they impaired the constitution of a unique theoretical corpus on matters of stabilization.
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 MONETARY POLICY WHERE TO?

MONETARY POLICY WHERE TO?

A third challenge that seeks to stabilize the monetary policy aims the attempts to take some measures aimed at a better budgetary discipline (The Tax Pact), the coordination of policies to mitigate the macroeconomic imbalances (the six pack) and the creation of a Banking Union at the level of the EU Member States. With the launch of the idea of Banking Union, the European Mechanism for Stability would be able to directly capitalize banks at risk of insolvency, and here we may refer to the case of Spain. However, a Banking Union cannot operate without tax arrangements, which means common resources for intervention and sharing the burden. There are many controversies on whether all banks should fall under the new system of regulation and supervision, and Germany and France diverged on the subject.
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Household borrowing constraints and monetary policy in emerging economies

Household borrowing constraints and monetary policy in emerging economies

Although researchers have documented that financial frictions, in particular household borrowing con- straints (Iacoviello, 2005; Monacelli, 2008), play a key role in business cycles, very little attention has been paid to the heterogeneity of that friction in different countries, particularly in developing countries. In developed economies, households use their houses as collateral for loans, but in emerging economies this is uncommon due to the difficulty in foreclosing against this type of collateral in the event of default, among other institutional and legal reasons. One consequence of this difficulty in collateralizing credit is that the volume of credit that is available to households in emerging countries is much lower than in developed countries. (In 2005, household credit represented 9.2% of GDP in emerging countries in Latin America, 12.1% in emerging countries in Europe, and 27.5% in emerging countries in Asia; however, household credit represented 58% of GDP in mature markets (IMF, 2006)).
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Firm financial constraints and the impact of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates

Firm financial constraints and the impact of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates

Strongin (1995) argues that previous studies attempting to identify the stanee of monetary poliey fail to properly address the Fed's strategy of accommodating reser[r]

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Monetary transitions in Cabo Verde : from the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal

Monetary transitions in Cabo Verde : from the escudo zone to the exchange agreement with Portugal

During the colonial period and within the framework of the monetary system of the Portuguese colonies, Cabo Verde lived in a situation of relative monetary and exchange stability. After independence, in 1975, the country underwent two monetary transitions: the first, immediately after independence and with the abandonment of the exchange rate parity with the Portuguese escudo; and the second, from 1998 onwards, following an exchange cooperation agreement with Portugal. During both transitions, the country could rebuild monetary and exchange stability, as a result of the way in which institutional and external factors of stability were used in each of them. However, the second transition significantly affected the evolution of trade and international investments in Cabo Verde, whose expansion resulted in a strong growth of the economy and exports. This paper analyses not only the conditions of monetary and exchange stability in the two transitions, but also the nature of the changes that took place with the second transition. Those changes were reflected in a trend of structural transformation and consolidation of the market economy in Cabo Verde, paving the way to the good economic performance of the last few decades.
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CONSIDERATIONS ON THE CONTENT AND OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL STABILITY

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE CONTENT AND OBJECTIVES OF FINANCIAL STABILITY

of an economy through their impact onto the operation of the financial system”. The definition of this author encapsulates several different types of instability, ranging from banking crises to the blockage of the capital market. Additionally, Chant suggested that the financial instability would distinguish between other forms of instability, such as the macroeconomic instability. The main difference is that financial instability has its source on the financial markets, while the macroeconomic instability often occurs as a result of some shocks of the aggregated supply or demand. Ferguson (2002) refers to distorting the prices of assets in his definition given to financial instability and underlines the final impact of financial instability in macroeconomy, meaning on the level of aggregated expenses. Ferguson (2002) describes the financial instability as being “a situation characterised by... three basic criteria: the removal of the prices of assets from the fundamental ones, distortion of the market operation and availability of the credit nationally and probably internationally and the deviation of aggregated expenses from the capacity of the economy to produce”. The second set of definitions outlines the concept of financial stability, but also here there are tones, because some authors directly aim at the phenomenon, and others at the characteristics thereof. For example, Foot (2003) defines the financial stability as being the situation where there is: monetary stability; an unemployment rate close to the natural one; a confidence in the operation of the key-institutions and financial markets and when there are no relative movements of the prices of real or financial assets within the economy, which would undermine the aforementioned matters. The author assigns certain trends of the macroeconomic
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The Integration in the Economic and Monetary Union: when?

The Integration in the Economic and Monetary Union: when?

The category of specialists who support the sustainability of the Euro zone also includes Profumo (2010) who states that “the creation of the Euro zone presents itself as an extraordinary achievement which has defied in the last ten years all the skeptics and which exceeded the most optimistic expectations and the main issue in the next ten years is its enlargement”. He embraces the idea according to which, until 2019, all the EU member states will join the Euro zone, relying on its stability, considering that the European Union as a unique economic, financial and political construction, different from any other, which reunites a wide range of states, from developed countries to emerging economies, interconnected within homogenous ensemble of institutions and rules. But, what is interesting is just the fact this diversity creates the premises for a significant growth potential. One of the lessons derived from the crisis revealed that the important fluctuations of the national currencies’ exchange rates in relation to the Euro had the countries outside the Euro zone more exposed to the produced shocks.
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SAMBA Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach

SAMBA Stochastic Analytical Model with a Bayesian Approach

217 Financial Stability and Monetary Policy – The case of Brazil Benjamin M. Cajueiro[r]

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IMBALANCES IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM OF UKRAINE AND THEIR TRANSMISSION TO THE SYSTEMATIC RISKS IN THE MONETARY STABILITY

IMBALANCES IN THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM OF UKRAINE AND THEIR TRANSMISSION TO THE SYSTEMATIC RISKS IN THE MONETARY STABILITY

The article examines the current state and major imbalances in the financial market of Ukraine, which are the source of risk to the national economy and can significantly affect the monetary stability during the post-crisis period and the period of recession. Threats that are associated with peculiarities of the institutional structure of the financial market of Ukraine are analyzed, namely, on the one hand, the importance of banking institutions, and on the other – functional inadequacy of the banking systems in en- suring monetary and financial stability. The analysis shows that the weaknesses of the banking system have led to the accumula- tion of risks and structural misbalances in the Ukrainian economy which pose a danger to stability in the financial sector. Con- clusions and measures are substantiated for the use of tools of monetary policy in order to strengthen monetary and financial stability. Among them are: the necessity of changes in the methodological tools of assessment of the financial stability and ac- cumulation of systemic risk in the economy, measures to manage the inflation risk as the main internal risk for Ukraine, ways of enhancement of interaction between the banking system and the national economy through the interest rate benchmark.
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Structural stability of the high-aluminium zinc alloys modified with Ti addition

Structural stability of the high-aluminium zinc alloys modified with Ti addition

During these examinations samples of the Zn-25wt%Al after supersaturation at 370 o C/48 hours were quenched in water of room temperature, and then directly used in the XRD examinations. It was determined that the alloy Zn-25wt%Al with the addition of Ti undergoes phase changes in a shorter time after quenching than in the case of the same alloy without the addition of Ti [9], [11] – Fig. 1. This can suggest that Ti intensifies initial stage of the phase transformations, i.e. decomposition of the primary α' solid solution. On the other hand, the examined ZnAl25 with Ti addition did not display dimensional changes during natural ageing after supersaturation and quenching [10], [12]. This suggests that Ti addition stabilizes the α phase. As it was mentioned above, the Cu addition, which beneficially influences strength and wear properties of the Zn-Al alloys, forms metastable ε-CuZn 4 phase. The ε-CuZn 4 phase transforms to
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