81,9(56,'$'((67$'8$/3$8/,67$81(63
&Æ0386'(-$%27,&$%$/
$1È/,6('(3(',*5((((67,0$7,9$6'(
3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(
,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0%29,1267$%$38
3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV
0pGLFD9HWHULQiULD
81,9(56,'$'((67$'8$/3$8/,67$81(63
&Æ0386'(-$%27,&$%$/
$1È/,6('(3(',*5((((67,0$7,9$6'(
3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(
,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0%29,1267$%$38
3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV
2ULHQWDGRU3URI'U'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDUL
&RRULHQWDGRU'UD'DQLHODGR$PDUDO*URVVL
'U5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL6DYHJQDJR
'LVVHUWDomR DSUHVHQWDGD j )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLDV $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV ± 81(63 &kPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDO FRPR SDUWH GDV H[LJrQFLDV SDUD REWHQomR GR WtWXOR GH 0HVWUH HP*HQpWLFDH0HOKRUDPHQWR$QLPDO
%HUQDUGHV3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL
%D $QiOLVHGHSHGLJUHHHHVWLPDWLYDVGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLPSRUWkQFLDHFRQ{PLFDHPERYLQRV7DEDSXm 3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV±±-DERWLFDEDO
YLSLOFP
'LVVHUWDomRPHVWUDGR8QLYHUVLGDGH(VWDGXDO3DXOLVWD )DFXOGDGHGH&LrQFLDV$JUiULDVH9HWHULQiULDV
2ULHQWDGRU'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDUL
&RRULHQWDGRUHV'DQLHODGR$PDUDO*URVVL5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL 6DYHJQDJR
%DQFDH[DPLQDGRUD5LFDUGRGD)RQVHFD&LQWLD5LJKHWWL 0DUFRQGHV
%LEOLRJUDILD
%RYLQRVGHFRUWH(VWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDO+HUGDELOLGDGH, 7tWXOR,,-DERWLFDEDO)DFXOGDGHGH&LrQFLDV$JUiULDVH9HWHULQiULDV
&'8
)LFKD FDWDORJUiILFD HODERUDGD SHOD 6HomR 7pFQLFD GH $TXLVLomR H 7UDWDPHQWR GD ,QIRUPDomR ± 6HUYLoR 7pFQLFR GH %LEOLRWHFD H 'RFXPHQWDomR 81(63 &kPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDO
'$'26&855,&8/$5(6'2$8725
35,6&,/$$55,*8&&,%(51$5'(6±QDVFLGDHPGHMXOKRGHQD FLGDGH GH 6mR -RmR GD %RD 9LVWD 6mR 3DXOR ILOKD GH *LOEHUWR GH $]HYHGR %HUQDUGHVH/XFLDQDGH&DUYDOKR$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV,QLFLRXRFXUVRGH0HGLFLQD 9HWHULQiULD QD )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLD $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV 81(63 &DPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDOHPPDUoRGH)RLEROVLVWD)$3(63GHLQLFLDomRFLHQWtILFDHP HREWHYHRWtWXORGH0pGLFD9HWHULQiULDHP(PDJRVWRGHLQJUHVVRXQR FXUVRGHPHVWUDGRSHOR3URJUDPDGH3yV*UDGXDomRHP*HQpWLFDH0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO QD )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLD $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV 81(63 &DPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDOVRERULHQWDomRGR3URI'U'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDULHFRRULHQWDomRGD'U 'DQLHODGR$PDUDO*URVVLHGR'U5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL6DYHJQDJR)RLEROVLVWD&13T GHPHVWUDGRSHORSHUtRGRGHDJRVWRGHDMXOKRGHHEROVLVWD)$3(63GH PHVWUDGRSHORSHUtRGRGHDJRVWRGHDMXOKRGH
7HQGRDPRUHVD~GHGDYLGDQmRUHFODPR (XDPRDYLGDTXHOHYROHYRDYLGDTXHDPR 7LmR&DUUHLUR
$*5$'(&,0(1726
3ULPHLUDPHQWH JRVWDULD GH DJUDGHFHU D 'HXV SRU PH DFRPSDQKDU HP WRGRV RVPRPHQWRVHPHGDUIRUoDVSDUDVHPSUHVHJXLUHPIUHQWH
$RV PHXV SDLV /XFLDQD H *LOEHUWR SRU VHPSUH PH DSRLDUHP QDV PLQKDV GHFLV}HVPHGDUHPDRSRUWXQLGDGHGHREWHUHVWHWtWXORHPHHQVLQDUHPDHQ[HUJDU RODGRERPGHWRGRVRVGHVDILRVTXHDYLGDQRVWUD]$RVPHXVLUPmRVSRUID]HUHP SDUWH GH PHX FUHVFLPHQWR H DPDGXUHFLPHQWR HVWDQGR VHPSUH GLVSRVWRV D DMXGDU $RVPHXVTXHULGRVDYyV0iUFLDH$QWHQRUSRUWRGDDGHGLFDomRHPPLQKDFULDomRH RDSRLRDRORQJRGRVPHXVHVWXGRV¬PLQKDTXHULGDDYy0DUO\SRUWRGRVRVVHXV PLPRVHVHUPHXH[HPSORGHYLGDHGHGLFDomR$RPHXDY{7DEDMDUDTXHMiQmR HVWiPDLVDTXL2EULJDGDSRUWRGDVDVOLo}HVHLQVSLUDomRTXHRVHQKRUPHGHX¬ PLQKD SULPD &DUROLQD PLQKD VHJXQGD LUPm TXH DSHVDU GH ORQJH VHPSUH PH DFRPSDQKDHPHDMXGD(QILPDWRGDDPLQKDIDPtOLDTXHFRODERURXFDGDXPDVXD PDQHLUDSDUDKRMHHXVHUTXHPVRX
$R PHX DPRU (OLpGHU SRU VHU PHX DPLJR H FRPSDQKHLUR SRU WHU PXLWD SDFLrQFLDHPHDSRLDUHPWRGDVDVKRUDVSRUPHLQVSLUDUHGDUIRUoDVSDUDVHPSUH FRQWLQXDUHSULQFLSDOPHQWHSRUWRGRVRVPRPHQWRVIHOL]HVTXHYRFrPHSURSRUFLRQD
*RVWDULDGHDJUDGHFHUDWRGRVPHXVDPLJRVGH6mR-RmRGD%RD9LVWD$QD /LD$QD/XL]D%UXQD&DFDLQKR'X*DEL*XL-RUJH.DNi1HWR0i0DUFLOLR6\ 7DOLWKD9r9LFWRUTXHPHVXSRUWDUDPSRUWDQWRWHPSRHPHDMXGDUDPDIRUPDUD SHVVRDTXHKRMHVRXFRPFHUWH]DVmRDVSHVVRDVTXHFRQVLGHURGDPLQKDIDPtOLDH VmRDVTXHHXHVFROKLSDUDVHPSUHWHUDRPHXODGR
HVWXGRV WRGDV DV IHVWDV H SULQFLSDOPHQWH SRU ID]HUHP SDUWH GR PHX FUHVFLPHQWR SHVVRDO ¬V DWXDLV PRUDGRUDV TXH QmR FRQYLYL PDV TXH PXLWR HVWLPR *XDUL 'X 3DOPLULQKD *DUUDILQKD =XEDH 0HL SRU PHFRQVLGHUDUHPGDIDPtOLD DQWHV PHVPR GHPHFRQKHFHUHPHSRUPHUHFHEHUHPVHPSUHGHEUDoRVHVRUULVRVDEHUWRV $RV PHXV DPLJRV GH HTXLSH 7DWL -DTXH ,VPDHO 7KLDJR *XLOKHUPH 1DVFLPHQWR6DOYDGRU*LRYDQD6DEULQD'LHJR1LFROH*XLOKHUPH9HQWXULQL1DWDOLD H %LD SRU WHUHP PH UHFHELGR GH EUDoRV DEHUWRV H SRU WRGD DMXGD TXH PH GHUDP 6HPYRFrVHVWHWUDEDOKRQmRVHULDRPHVPR
$RVIXQFLRQiULRVGR'HSDUWDPHQWRGH([DWDV$GULDQD=H]p6KLUOH\1RULYDO H DRV IXQFLRQiULRV GD SyVJUDGXDomR SHOD FRODERUDomR H SRU SURSRUFLRQDU R DPELHQWHGHWUDEDOKRRPHOKRUSRVVtYHO
$$1&3DRSURIHVVRU5D\VLOGR%DUERVD/{ERHWRGDDHTXLSHSRUFHGHUHP GDGRVSDUDTXHIRVVHSRVVtYHODUHDOL]DomRGHVWHWUDEDOKR
$RV PHPEURV GD EDQFD GH TXDOLILFDomR 'U 0DUFRV (OL %X]DQVNDV H 'UD 9DOGHF\$SDUHFLGD5RFKDGD&UX]SHORWHPSRGLVSHQGLGRFRQVLGHUDo}HVUHDOL]DGDV SDUDPHOKRULDGRSUHVHQWHWUDEDOKRHSULQFLSDOPHQWHSHODDPL]DGH
$RV PHPEURV GD EDQFD GH GHIHVD GD GLVVHUWDomR 3URI 'U 5LFDUGR GD )RQVHFDH'UD&LQWLD5LJKHWWL0DUFRQGHVSHODSDFLrQFLDFRODERUDomRHVXJHVW}HV $RV PHXV FRRULHQWDGRUHV H DPLJRV 'UD 'DQLHOD GR $PDUDO *URVVL H 'U 5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL6DYHJQDJRSRUWRGRRDSRLRSDFLrQFLDRULHQWDomRHVXJHVWmR $WRGRVRVSURIHVVRUHVTXHWLYHGHVGHRLQtFLRGHPLQKDHGXFDomRDWpPLQKD IRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDOSRUWHUHPGHGLFDGRWHPSRSDUDPLQKDIRUPDomR$R3URI'U -RVp-XUDQGLU)DJOLDULSRUWHUPHDFHLWDGRFRPRHVWDJLiULDHHVWXGDQWHGHLQLFLDomR PHDSUHVHQWDQGRDiUHDDFDGrPLFDHQVLQDQGRRULHQWDQGRHPHLQFHQWLYDQGR (PHVSHFLDODR3URI'U'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDULSRUPHUHFHEHUFRPRDOXQDH RULHQWDGD WHQGR PXLWD SDFLrQFLD H GHGLFDomR SRU WRGRV RV HQVLQDPHQWRV H FRQVHOKRVHSRUWRGDDFRODERUDomRSDUDDPLQKDIRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDOHSHVVRDO ¬ )&$981(63 -DERWLFDEDO SRU SURSRUFLRQDU H[FHOHQWH DPELHQWH SDUD IRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDO¬&13TSHODEROVDGHHVWXGRVFRQFHGLGDSRUDQRSDUDHVWH HVWXGR3URFHVVR¬)$3(63SRUFRQFHGHUXPDEROVDGHHVWXGRV SRUDQRSDUDDUHDOL]DomRGRSUHVHQWHWUDEDOKR3URFHVVR
L
680È5,2
3iJLQD
5(6802 ,9
$%675$&79,
&$3Ë78/2&216,'(5$d®(6*(5$,6
,1752'8d2
(6758785$'$',66(57$d2
5(9,62'(/,7(5$785$
(6758785$'$3238/$d2
,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH
7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV
&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD
&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(,17(5(66((&21Ð0,&23$5$5$d$7$%$38
3HVRDRGHVPDPH
,GDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR
,QWHUYDORGHSDUWRV
3URGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD
5()(5Ç1&,$6
&$3Ë78/2±(6758785$3238/$&,21$/'$5$d$7$%$38
87,/,=$1'2$1È/,6('(3(',*5((
5(6802
,1752'8d2
0$7(5,$/(0e72'26
'(6&5,d2'2&21-8172'('$'26
,17(*5,'$'('(3(',*5((
LL
1Ò0(52()(7,92'($1&(675$,6
5$=2(175(21Ò0(52()(7,92'()81'$'25(6(21Ò0(52()(7,92'(
$1&(675$,6
3$5Æ0(75263238/$&,21$,65(/$&,21$'26&20&2(),&,(17('(
(1'2*$0,$
&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLR
&RHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD
7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR
(IHLWRVGDHQGRJDPLDQRGHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFR
5(68/7$'26(',6&8662
,17(*5,'$'('(3(',*5((
1Ò0(52()(7,92'()81'$'25(6
1Ò0(52()(7,92'($1&(675$,6(5$=2(175(21Ò0(52()(7,92'(
)81'$'25(6(21Ò0(52()(7,92'($1&(675$,6
3$5Æ0(75263238/$&,21$,65(/$&,21$'26&20&2(),&,(17('((1'2*$0,$
&21&/862
5()(5Ç1&,$6
&$3Ë78/2±(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&26(7(1'Ç1&,$6 *(1e7,&$63$5$&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0
%29,1267$%$38
5(6802
,1752'8d2
0$7(5,$/(0e72'26
'(6&5,d2'26'$'26
25*$1,=$d2(&21752/('(48$/,'$'('265(*,67526)(127Ë3,&26
(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&26
7(67('(5$=2'(9(5266,0,/+$1d$
(),&,Ç1&,$5(/$7,9$'(6(/(d2
LLL
5(68/7$'26(',6&8662
'(6&5,d2'26'$'26
(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&26
(),&,Ç1&,$5(/$7,9$'(6(/(d2
7(1'Ç1&,$6*(1e7,&$6
&21&/86®(6
5()(5Ç1&,$6
&$3Ë78/2,03/,&$d®(6*(5$,6
$3Ç1',&(6
$3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&(
$3Ç1',&(
LY
$1È/,6('(3(',*5((((67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$ &$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0%29,1267$%$38
Y
HQWUH,30,3$WHQGrQFLDJHQpWLFDIRLVLJQLILFDWLYDSHIDYRUiYHO SDUDRHIHLWRJHQpWLFRPDWHUQRGH3VLJQLILFDWLYDSHIDYRUiYHOSDUD,3H VLJQLILFDWLYD S H GHVIDYRUiYHO SDUD ,33 ,30 H 3$& $V HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH H FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HYLGHQFLDUDP D LPSRUWkQFLD QD LQFOXVmR GH 3 ,33 H 3$& QD VHOHomR HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR VHQGR DV GXDV~OWLPDVIDYRUiYHLVDRGHVHPSHQKRGHLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV2EVHUYRXVHSHODV WHQGrQFLDVJHQpWLFDVJDQKRVJHQpWLFRVSHTXHQRVHGHVIDYRUiYHLVSDUD,33,30H 3$&PHGLDQWHjUHFHQWHLPSOHPHQWDomRGHSURJUDPDGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFRGD UDoD
3DODYUDVFKDYH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHSURGXWLYDV HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDOKHUGDELOLGDGHSHVRDRGHVPDPH
YL
3(',*5(($1$/<6,6$1'*(1(7,&3$5$0(7(56(67,0$7(6)25 (&2120,&,03257$1775$,76,17$%$38&$77/(
$%675$&7±7DEDSXmLVDUXVWLFEHHIFDWWOHEUHHGWKDWLVKLJKO\DGDSWHGWR WURSLFDO HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV 'XH 7DEDSXm UHFHQW RULJLQ WKHUH DUH RQO\ D IHZ VWXGLHVDERXWSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHDQGJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUV7KXVWKLVVWXG\KDGWZR PDLQREMHFWLYHV7KHILUVWZDVWRHYDOXDWHWKHSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHDQGUHODWLRQVKLSRI LQEUHHGLQJFRHIILFLHQWDQGWKHSKHQRW\SHRIZHDQLQJZHLJKWDGMXVWHGDWGD\VRI DJH:DJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJ$)&DYHUDJHRIFDOYLQJLQWHUYDO$&,ILUVWFDOYLQJ LQWHUYDO&,VHFRQGFDOYLQJLQWHUYDO&,DQGDFFXPXODWHGSURGXFWLYLW\$&37KH VHFRQGZDVWRHVWLPDWHJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVJHQHWLFWUHQGVDQGUHODWLYHHIILFLHQF\RI VHOHFWLRQ IRU : $)& $&, &, DQG $&3 LQ 7DEDSXm EHHI FDWWOH :H XVHG SHGLJUHHLQIRUPDWLRQRIDQLPDOVDQGSKHQRW\SLFLQIRUPDWLRQRI7DEDSXm FRZV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH %UD]LOLDQ 7DEDSXm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mFDWWOH
&$3Ë78/2&216,'(5$d®(6*(5$,6
,1752'8d2
2WDPDQKRGRUHEDQKRERYLQRPXQGLDOIRLHVWLPDGRHPPDLVGHELOK}HV GH DQLPDLV HP )$2 2 %UDVLO IRL R VHJXQGR SDtV TXH WHYH PDLRU H[SDQVmRGRUHEDQKRFRPDXPHQWRGHDQLPDLVHQWUHD(VVH FUHVFLPHQWRGDERYLQRFXOWXUDEUDVLOHLUDGHYHVHDRDXPHQWRGHNJQRFRQVXPR GDFDUQHERYLQDSRUSHVVRDQHVVHPHVPRSHUtRGR$18$/3(&VRPDGRD GHPDQGDSDUDH[SRUWDomR
'HQWUHDVIRQWHVGHSURWHtQDDFDUQHERYLQDpGHJUDQGHDFHLWDomRHQWUHRV EUDVLOHLURV FRUUHVSRQGHQGR D GR DEDVWHFLPHQWR GH FDUQHV GR SDtV )$2 3DUDDEDVWHFHURFRQVXPRGHFDUQHQDFLRQDOHLQWHUQDFLRQDOR%UDVLOSURGX] JUDQGHTXDQWLGDGHGHVWHDOLPHQWRHRFXSDQRV~OWLPRVDQRVDVSULPHLUDVSRVLo}HV HQWUHRVSDtVHVH[SRUWDGRUHVGHFDUQHERYLQD$18$/3(&8PDYH]TXHR PHUFDGR GR DJURQHJyFLR HQYROYH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH GR 3,% QDFLRQDO &(3($pQHFHVViULRH[SDQGLUDSURGXomRHDWHQGHUDVGHPDQGDVQDFLRQDLV HLQWHUQDFLRQDLV3DUDDXPHQWDUDSURGXWLYLGDGHHPHOKRUDUDTXDOLGDGHGRSURGXWR H[LJLGR SHOR FRQVXPLGRU p QHFHVViULR SURPRYHU PHOKRULDV HP DWLYLGDGHV Mi H[HUFLGDVFRPRDXPHQWRGDTXDOLGDGHQDDOLPHQWDomRDQLPDOPXGDQoDGHPDQHMR HDSOLFDomRGHVLVWHPDGHFRQILQDPHQWRHDLQWURGXomRGHQRYDVWHFQRORJLDVSDUDD SURGXomR FRPR D DSOLFDomR GH SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR DQLPDO 0,//(1HWDO
$ SURGXomR ERYLQD QDFLRQDO p HP VXD PDLRU SDUWH UHDOL]DGD GH IRUPD H[WHQVLYD H HP VRORV GH EDL[D RX PpGLD IHUWLOLGDGH )(55$= )(/Ë&,2 'HVVD PDQHLUD WRUQDVH QHFHVViULR FULDU DQLPDLV TXH VH DGDSWHP EHP DR VROR WHPSHUDWXUDHFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLV'HYLGRVXDUXVWLFLGDGHRVDQLPDLVGHRULJHP ]HEXtQDIRUDPRVTXHPHOKRUVHDGDSWDUDPjVFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLVHGHSURGXomR EUDVLOHLUDVHUHSUHVHQWDPGRUHEDQKRQDFLRQDO)5(,7$6HWDO
IRL UHFRQKHFLGD DSHQDV HP $%&7 (VWD UDoD IRL D SULPHLUD GRV QHR]HEXtQRV IRUPDGD D SDUWLU GH SODQHMDPHQWR ]RRWpFQLFR $%&7 3RUpP VXDIRUPDomRpPXLWRUHFHQWHHWRGRRUHEDQKRIRLFRQVWLWXtGRSHORDFDVDODPHQWRGH DSHQDV XP PDFKR (VWD RULJHP GD UDoD 7DEDSXm SRGH IDYRUHFHU D UHGXomR GD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDHVXDVFRQVHTXrQFLDV
$OJXQVSDUkPHWURVSRSXODFLRQDLVFDOFXODGRVDSDUWLUGHUHJLVWURVGHSHGLJUHH SRGHP GHVFUHYHU D YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD DSyV SRXFDV JHUDo}HV SHUPLWLQGR R HVWXGR GD HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO SRU ORQJR SHUtRGR GH WHPSR %2,&+$5' 0$,*1(/9(55,(52SHGLJUHHWDPEpPSHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDUDHQGRJDPLDGD SRSXODomR DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV D TXDO HP HOHYDGRV JUDXV SRGH SURPRYHU UHGXomRQDIHUWLOLGDGHHYLDELOLGDGHGRVDQLPDLVDOpPGDUHGXomRQRGHVHPSHQKR GH DOJXPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV 'HVVD PDQHLUD YHULILFDU D HVWUXWXUD GD SRSXODomR H D HQGRJDPLD VmR SDVVRV LPSRUWDQWHV SDUD LPSOHPHQWDU XP SURJUDPD GH VHOHomR JHQpWLFDGRVDQLPDLVRXPHOKRUDURSODQHMDPHQWRGDTXHOHVMiH[LVWHQWHV
$ UDoD 7DEDSXm SRVVXL SUHFRFLGDGH HP JDQKR GH SHVR DWLQJLQGR SHVRV HOHYDGRVjLGDGHDRDEDWH(VWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDpGHLQWHUHVVHDRSURGXWRUXPDYH] TXH R %UDVLO DLQGD p XP SDtV TXH SRVVXL PpGLD GH LGDGH GH DEDWH GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWHGHDQRVRTXHHYLGHQFLDTXHDPpGLDGHHQJRUGDSRUDQRQHVWHVDQLPDLVQR SDtVDLQGDpPXLWREDL[D5(6(1'($OpPGLVVRDLGDGHjPDWXULGDGHGDV YDFDVpPXLWRDOWDHDSURGXomRGHEH]HUURVSRUYDFDSRUDQRQRSDtVpPXLWREDL[D 0,//(1HWDO$18$/3(&
$VIrPHDVGDUDoD7DEDSXmDWLQJHPGRVDPHVHVGHLGDGHGH IHUWLOLGDGHHGRVDPHVHVPDLVGH)5(,7$6(VWHGHVHPSHQKR GHVWDFD D UDoDHQWUHRXWURV ]HEXtQRV SRLVD HILFLrQFLD QD UHSURGXomRGDVIrPHDV WHPJUDQGHLPSDFWRHFRQ{PLFRQDSURGXomRGHFDUQH$%<HWDOXPDYH] TXH HVWDV DR DWLQJLUHP D LGDGH j PDWXULGDGH SUHFRFHPHQWH VRPDGR DR UiSLGR UHWRUQRDRFLFORHVWUDODXPHQWDPRQ~PHURGHEH]HUURVSURGX]LGRVDRORQJRGHVXD YLGDFRPFRQVHTXHQWHDXPHQWRGRUHWRUQRHFRQ{PLFRSDUDRSURGXWRU
JHQpWLFRV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LQWHUHVVH GR SURJUDPD GH VHOHomR HVWDEHOHFLGR 0$/+$'2 HW DO H PRQLWRUDU DV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV DYDOLDGDV SRU DQR GH QDVFLPHQWR SDUD DFRPSDQKDU RV UHVXOWDGRV REWLGRV SHOR SURJUDPDGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFRHUHDOL]DUSRVVtYHLVPXGDQoDVGHFULWpULRVGH VHOHomRFDVRQHFHVViULR
(VWH WUDEDOKR WHYH FRPR REMHWLYRV HVWXGDU D HVWUXWXUD GD SRSXODomR H R HIHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH R SHVR DR GHVPDPH FRUULJLGR SDUD GLDV GH LGDGH LGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHSURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGDHHVWLPDU SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV H HILFLrQFLD UHODWLYD GH VHOHomR SDUD HVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSURGXWLYDVHUHSURGXWLYDVGHUHOHYkQFLDHFRQ{PLFDHPERYLQRV GHFRUWHGDUDoD7DEDSXmDILPGHDYDOLDUDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVPDLVLQGLFDGDVSDUDD VHOHomRJHQpWLFDGRVDQLPDLVHTXDLVPHGLGDVGHYHPVHUWRPDGDVFDVRKDMDJUDQGH LQIOXrQFLDGDHQGRJDPLDQDSRSXODomR
(6758785$'$',66(57$d2
1HVWHFDStWXORIRUDPDERUGDGRVDVSHFWRVWHyULFRVVREUHRVSDUkPHWURVTXH GHVFUHYHP D HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO WDLV FRPR LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH WDPDQKR HIHWLYR SRSXODFLRQDO Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV H GH DQFHVWUDLV FRHILFLHQWH GH SDUHQWHVFR H GH HQGRJDPLD $LQGD QHVWH FDStWXOR IRL DSUHVHQWDGD UHYLVmR GH OLWHUDWXUDVREUHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLPSRUWkQFLDHFRQ{PLFDSDUDDUDoD7DEDSXmWDLV FRPRSHVRDRGHVPDPHDMXVWDGRSDUDGLDVGHLGDGH3LGDGHDRSULPHLUR SDUWR,33LQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV,3HSURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD3$&1R&DStWXOR FRQVWDP DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH SDUkPHWURV SRSXODFLRQDLV H UHODomR GH FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHV GH HQGRJDPLD FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD FLWDGDV DFLPD1R&DStWXORIRUDPDSUHVHQWDGDVDVHVWLPDWLYDVGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVH WHQGrQFLDVJHQpWLFDVSDUD3,33,3H3$&1R&DStWXORIRUDPDSUHVHQWDGDV DVLPSOLFDo}HVJHUDLVHDDSOLFDomRSUiWLFDGHVWHWUDEDOKR
5(9,62'(/,7(5$785$
(VWUXWXUDGDSRSXODomR
$ DYDOLDomR GD HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO IRUQHFH VXSRUWH SDUD GHVHQYROYHU IHUUDPHQWDV H HVWUDWpJLDV SDUD D DSOLFDomR GR PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR EHP FRPR GHILQLU RV SURFHGLPHQWRV SDUD DWLQJLU RV REMHWLYRV GH VHOHomR GR SURJUDPD LPSOHPHQWDGR 0$/+$'2 HW DO (VWD DYDOLDomR GD HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO IRUQHFH LQIRUPDo}HV FRPR LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV WDPDQKR HIHWLYRGDSRSXODomRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLVH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDGRVLQGLYtGXRV
,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH
$ LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH SHUPLWH LGHQWLILFDU R TXDQWR GR SHGLJUHH HP FDGD JHUDomRHVWiFRPSOHWRHSRGHVHUFDOFXODGDSRUPHLRGDTXDQWLGDGHGHLQIRUPDomR TXHpGHVFRQKHFLGDRXVHMDRTXDQWRGHUHJLVWURGRVSDLVHVWiDXVHQWH2Q~PHUR GHJHUDo}HVWDPEpPFRQWULEXLSDUDDLQWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHHHSRGHVHUFDOFXODGR GHWUrVIRUPDVQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVFRPSOHWDV)LJXUD$REWLGDSHORQ~PHURGH JHUDo}HV HP TXH DPERV RV SDLV VmR FRQKHFLGRV Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV Pi[LPDV )LJXUD % REWLGD SHOR Q~PHUR GR WRWDO GH JHUDo}HV SRVVtYHLV VHQGR RV SDLV FRQKHFLGRVRXQmRHQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVHTXLYDOHQWHV)LJXUD&RTXDOpGDGR SHOD VRPD GH WRGRV RV DQFHVWUDLV GRV TXDLV VH WHP UHJLVWUR H FDOFXODGR SHOR
VRPDWyULRGH1 2
HPTXHpRQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVTXHRLQGLYtGXRpVHSDUDGR GHFDGDDQFHVWUDOFRQKHFLGR0$,*1(/%2,&+$5'9(55,(5
&DLUHV HW DO DYDOLDUDP XP FRQMXQWR GH SHGLJUHH GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD 7DEDSXmHREVHUYDUDPTXHGRVDQLPDLVWLYHUDPSDLVHPmHVGHVFRQKHFLGRV HQmRWLYHUDPLQIRUPDomRGRVDYyVQRSHGLJUHH$UHGXomRQDLQIRUPDomR GH SHGLJUHH HP JHUDo}HV PDLV DQWLJDV WDPEpP IRL REVHUYDGD SRU 3DQHWWR HW DO HPERYLQRVGDUDoD*X]HUiHSRU0DOKDGRHWDOHPERYLQRVGDUDoD 1HORUH6FUDJJVHWDOHVWXGDUDPXPDSRSXODomRGHDQLPDLV:DJ\XH REWLYHUDPPpGLDGRQ~PHURGHJHUDomRFRPSOHWDEDL[DVHQGRLJXDOD$IDOWD GH LQIRUPDomRQR SHGLJUHH SRGH VXEHVWLPDU R FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD FDOFXODGR SDUDRVDQLPDLVPDLVYHOKRVDVVLPFRPRDPpGLDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDSDUD WRGD SRSXODomR $ LQIOXrQFLD GD HVWUXWXUD GH SHGLJUHH QD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFDIRL UHODWDGD SRU 'DQFKLQ%XUJH HW DO HVWXGDQGR GLYHUVDV UDoDV GH ERYLQRV GH OHLWH FRP GLIHUHQWHV TXDQWLGDGHV GH LQIRUPDomR GH SHGLJUHH (P ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUHVXJHULXVHSRVVtYHOVXEHVWLPDomRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDGHYLGRIDOWD GHLQIRUPDomRQRSHGLJUHH6$17$1$-5HWDO
7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR
2 WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR p GDGR SHOR Q~PHUR GH LQGLYtGXRV TXH H[SOLFDULD D WD[D GH HQGRJDPLD REWLGD VH HVWHVIRVVHPDFDVDODGRV DOHDWRULDPHQWH :5,*+72XVRLQWHQVLYRGHDOJXQVLQGLYtGXRVSRGHSURPRYHUDXPHQWRGD WD[DGHHQGRJDPLDHUHGXomRGRWDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR0È548(=HWDO
(VWXGRV UHDOL]DGRV SRU 6FKHQNHO /D*LRLD H 5LEROGL FRP UHJLVWURV GH SHGLJUHHGHDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUHHDQLPDLVGDUDoD7DEDSXm UHYHODUDPWDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomRGHHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHLGHQWLILFDQGR PDLRU UHGXomR GD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD SDUD D UDoD 1HORUH 3RUpP HVWDV HVWLPDWLYDVIRUDPPXLWRPHQRUHVHPUHODomRDRREWLGRFRPUHJLVWURVGHSHGLJUHHGH DQLPDLV5HG$QJXVHVWXGDGRVSRU0iUTXH]HWDOTXHREWLYHUDP WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GH DQLPDLV $ 2UJDQL]DomR GH $JULFXOWXUD H $OLPHQWRV )$2 FRQVLGHUDQtYHOFUtWLFRSDUDSRSXODo}HVFRPWDPDQKRHIHWLYRDEDL[RGHLQGLYtGXRV SRUJHUDomR)$2
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV
2VUHSURGXWRUHVFRPSDLHPmHGHVFRQKHFLGRVVmRFRQVLGHUDGRVIXQGDGRUHV H R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV UHSUHVHQWD R Q~PHUR HVSHUDGR GHVVHV UHSURGXWRUHV IXQGDGRUHV RV TXDLV VH FRQWULEXtVVHP LJXDOPHQWH FRP PDWHULDO JHQpWLFR SURPRYHULD D PHVPD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD /$&< 2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV SRVVXL YDULDomR GH DFRUGR FRP D SRSXODomRHVWXGDGDFRPRUHODWDGRSRU&DLUHVHWDOGHSDUDDQLPDLVGD UDoD7DEDSXmHSRU0DOKDGRHWDOGHDQLPDLVSDUDDUDoD1HORUH
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV
2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV UHSUHVHQWD R Q~PHUR PtQLPR GH DQFHVWUDLV IXQGDGRUHV RX QmR TXH H[SOLFDP WRGD D GLYHUVLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD %2,&+$5' 0$,*1(/ 9(55,(5 2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHVHDQFHVWUDLVEDL[RVLQGLFDPPHQRUGLYHUVLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDSRSXODomRH FRQVHTXHQWHPHQWH PDLRU HQGRJDPLD H SHTXHQR WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD $VVLP FRPR R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV WDPEpP SRVVXL YDULDomR FRQIRUPH R SHGLJUHH HVWXGDGR SRGHQGR VHU REVHUYDGRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLVLJXDODSDUDXPUHEDQKRIHFKDGRGDUDoD 1HORUHGDOLQKDJHP/HPJUXEHU2/,9(,5$HWDOHQTXDQWRTXHXPHVWXGRGH XPDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHUHODWRXTXHGDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFD SRGHULDVHUH[SOLFDGDSRUDQFHVWUDLV0$/+$'2HWDO
&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD
2 FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD GHYH VHU FRQVLGHUDGR QD LPSODQWDomR GH XP SURJUDPD GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR SRU PHLR GH FRQWUROH GH DFDVDODPHQWR HP DQLPDLVDSDUHQWDGRVXPDYH]TXHDOWRVtQGLFHVGHHQGRJDPLDSRGHPSUHMXGLFDUR GHVHPSHQKRSDUDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLPSRUWkQFLDHFRQ{PLFD4XHLUR]$OEXTXHUTXH H /DQ]RQL UHODWDUDP HIHLWR QHJDWLYR GD HQGRJDPLD QR SHVR DR GHVPDPH DVVLP FRPR 6DQWDQD -U HW DO TXH WDPEpP YHULILFDUDP UHGXomR QD SUREDELOLGDGHGHSUHQKH]DRVPHVHVFRPHOHYDGRtQGLFHGHHQGRJDPLDQDUDoD 1HORUH0F3DUODQGHWDOREVHUYDUDPDXPHQWRGDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRHP DQLPDLVGDUDoD+RODQGHVDFRPRDXPHQWRGDHQGRJDPLD(VWXGRVUHDOL]DGRVSRU 3DQHWWR HW DO WDPEpP REVHUYDUDP LQIOXrQFLD GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD VREUH LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR H LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV SDUD ERYLQRV GD UDoD *X]HUi DVVLP FRPR 5RNRXHL HW DO TXH YHULILFDUDP VLJQLILFkQFLD QR HIHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH DV PHVPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HP YDFDV GD UDoD +RODQGHVD HYLGHQFLDQGR TXH D HQGRJDPLD SRGH DIHWDU WDQWR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SURGXWLYDV FRPR UHSURGXWLYDV
&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLQWHUHVVHHFRQ{PLFRSDUDUDoD7DEDSXm
3HVRDRGHVPDPH
2SHVRDRGHVPDPHTXHpPHGLGRHPLGDGHVTXHYDULDPGHDGLDV GH DFRUGR FRP R SURJUDPD GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR SRVVXL GHVWDTXH HP VLVWHPDVGHSURGXomRGHFULDTXHWrPREH]HUURFRPRSULQFLSDOSURGXWR6RPDGRD HVWHLQWHUHVVHWHPVHTXHRSHVRDRGHVPDPHSRVVXLFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDSRVLWLYD GHPRGHUDGDDDOWDPDJQLWXGHFRPSHVRVDLGDGHVIXWXUDV)(55$=),/+2HWDO R TXH SRGH VHU XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD GH LPSRUWkQFLD SDUD VHOHomR FRP ILQDOLGDGH GH REWHU DQLPDLV FRP HOHYDGR SHVR FRUSRUDO j LGDGH GH DEDWH )HUUD] )LOKRHWDOREWLYHUDPPpGLDGHSHVRDRGHVPDPHGHNJHPDQLPDLV GDUDoD7DEDSXmPXLWRSUy[LPDDREWLGDSRU5LEHLURHWDOGHNJQD PHVPDUDoD
SHVRDRGHVPDPHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXm7UDEDOKRVUHDOL]DGRVFRPERYLQRV GDUDoD1HORUHREWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHYDULDQGRGHDSDUD SHVRDRGHVPDPH628=$HWDO%2/,*21%$/',$/%848(548( 6$17$11$HWDO'HPDQHLUDJHUDODKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDSHVRDRGHVPDPH DSUHVHQWDVH GH PRGHUDGD PDJQLWXGH H FRQVHTXHQWHPHQWH DV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV SDUD HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD REVHUYDGDV HP SURFHVVR GH VHOHomR VmR IDYRUiYHLVFRPWD[DGHPXGDQoDDQXDOTXHYDULDUDPGHNJDQRDNJDQR SDUD GLIHUHQWHV UDoDV HVWXGDGDV $5$Ò-2 HW DO /$85($12 HW DO 628=$HWDO=8,1HWDO6(1$HWDO6286$HWDOR TXH HYLGHQFLD TXH D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SRVVXL YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD VXILFLHQWH SDUD UHVSRQGHUDRSURFHVVRGHVHOHomR
'HYLGR j GLILFXOGDGH HP UHDOL]DU D SHVDJHP GH DQLPDLV QR PHVPR GLD UHDOL]DPVH SHVDJHQV HP GLIHUHQWHV GDWDV H DV PHGLGDV VmR FRUULJLGDV SDUD GHWHUPLQDGDLGDGH3DUDUHDOL]DUHVWDFRUUHomRSRGHVHXWLOL]DUPRGHORVQmROLQHDUHV *21d$/9(6 HW DO RX OLQHDUHV VHQGR RV GH UHJUHVVmR RV PDLV XWLOL]DGRV *5266,HWDO
$OpP GR DMXVWH GD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD D HVFROKD GR PRGHOR SDUD HVWLPDomR GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV D VHU DSOLFDGR p GH LPSRUWkQFLD SDUD REWHU HVWLPDWLYDV FRQILiYHLV TXH VmR HVVHQFLDLV QD FRQGXomR GD VHOHomR HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFR$%(5$HWDO2VPRGHORVXWLOL]DGRVQDDQiOLVHGRV GDGRV EDVHLDPVH QD LQFOXVmR GH HIHLWRV IL[RV TXH GHYHP SRVVXLU VLJQLILFkQFLD VREUH DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HVWXGDGDV H HIHLWRV DOHDWyULRV TXH HP JHUDO LQFOXHP DSHQDV R HIHLWR JHQpWLFR DGLWLYR GLUHWR GR DQLPDO H QmR XWLOL]DP R HIHLWR JHQpWLFR PDWHUQR H GH DPELHQWH SHUPDQHQWH FRPR HIHLWR DOHDWyULR ID]HQGR FRP TXH DV HVWLPDWLYDVREWLGDVSRVVDPVHUVXSHUHVWLPDGDV0$/+$'2HWDOXPDYH] TXH HVWHV FRPSRQHQWHV SRGHP LQIOXHQFLDU QD H[SUHVVmR IHQRWtSLFD GR DQLPDO 6HJXQGR5LEHLURHWDOXPPRGHORDGHTXDGRSDUDHVWLPDUSDUkPHWURVSDUD SHVR DR GHVPDPH GHYH FRQWHU R HIHLWR JHQpWLFR PDWHUQR DOpP GR HIHLWR JHQpWLFR DGLWLYR GLUHWR QRV HIHLWRV DOHDWyULRV GHYLGR D DOWD YDULkQFLD GHVWH FRPSRQHQWH YHULILFDGDSDUDERYLQRV7DEDSXm
HVWHV GRLV FRPSRQHQWHV $OEXTXHUTXH H 0H\HU VXJHULUDP HVWDEHOHFHU D FRYDULkQFLDHQWUHRHIHLWRJHQpWLFRGLUHWRHPDWHUQRFRPR]HUR(QWUHWDQWRVHJXQGR $EHUD HW DO VH XP SURJUDPD GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR HVSHUD DWLQJLU SURJUHVVRQRWiYHOHVWHGHYHVHEDVHDUHPPRGHORVQRVTXDLVDYDOLDUDPDSRVVtYHO LQFOXVmRGHVWDFRYDULkQFLDQDDQiOLVHGHYLGRDREWHQomRGHPHOKRUHVWLPDWLYDVGH SDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVTXDQGRHVWDFRYDULkQFLDHVWDYDLQFOXVDQDVDQiOLVHV6HJXQGR HVWHV DXWRUHV SDUD D LQFOXVmR GH WDO WHUPR p QHFHVViULR TXDQWLGDGH VXILFLHQWH GH UHJLVWURVGHGHVHPSHQKRHGHSHGLJUHH
8PDYH]HVWDEHOHFLGRRPRGHORDVHUXWLOL]DGROHYDQGRVHHPFRQVLGHUDomR WRGRVRVHIHLWRVTXHGHYHPVHULQFOXtGRVGHDFRUGRFRPRVUHJLVWURVFRQVHJXHVH UHDOL]DU D DSOLFDomR GH XP SURFHVVR GH VHOHomR 1R HQWDQWR DR HVWDEHOHFHU XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDFRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomRpSUHFLVRFRPSUHHQGHUDUHODomRGHVWDFRP DV GHPDLV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD D ILP GH HYLWDU PRGLILFDo}HV LQHVSHUDGDV QR UHEDQKR TXH SRVVDP DFDUUHWDU SUHMXt]RV $ FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD HQWUHGLIHUHQWHVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDUHVWDVDVVRFLDo}HV
3HUHLUD HW DO HVWXGDQGR DVVRFLDo}HV HQWUH SHVR DR GHVPDPH FRP LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR H LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV SDUD ERYLQRV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm UHODWDUDPFRUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDVLJXDLVDHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH*XLGROLQHW DO HVWLPDUDP FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD HQWUH SHVR DR GHVPDPH H LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR LJXDO D HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD *X]HUi %ROLJRQ HW DO UHODWDUDP HVWLPDWLYD GH FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD HQWUH SHVR DR GHVPDPH H LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR SDUD ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH LJXDO D VHQGR HVWH YDORU SRXFR UHSUHVHQWDWLYR R TXDO QmR SHUPLWH FRQFOXV}HV VREUH D DVVRFLDomR GHVWDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV
,GDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR
UHSURGXWLYD $ VHOHomR SDUD UHGX]LU D LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR UHGX] R LQWHUYDOR GH JHUDo}HVHIDYRUHFHRSURFHVVRGHVHOHomR3(/,&,21,HWDO
0pGLDVGHLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRHPHVWXGRVSDUDERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH IRUDPSUy[LPDVDRVPHVHVGHLGDGH%2/,*21HWDO/$85($12HWDO %2/,*21$/%848(548(&$(7$12HWDO3DUDERYLQRVGD UDoD 7DEDSXm 3HUHLUD HW DO YHULILFDUDP PpGLD SUy[LPD GH PHVHV GH LGDGH
(VWXGRV UHDOL]DGRV FRP ERYLQRV GH GLYHUVDV UDoDV HP SDtVHV FRPR %UDVLO 0p[LFR H ,Um REWLYHUDP HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH GH SDUD LGDGH DR SULPHLURSDUWRHPERYLQRVGDUDoD&DQFKLPDHPERYLQRVPXOWLUUDFLDO%RV
LQGLFXVSDUD D PHVPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD 0$*$f$ 6(*85$ %$/,(,52 HW DO
%8=$16.$6 HW DO 6$17$1$ -5 HW DO $528*+ $6/$0,1(-$')$5+$1*)$5(QWUHWDQWRJUDQGHSDUWHGRVWUDEDOKRVFRP ERYLQRVGHFRUWH]HEXtQRVDSUHVHQWDKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRGH PDJQLWXGHEDL[DDPRGHUDGDFRPRGHHREVHUYDGRVHPERYLQRVGD UDoD1HORUH*5266,HWDO%2/,*21$/%848(548(%2/,*21 %$/',$/%848(548(HGHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXm3(5(,5$ HWDO
(PERUD D LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR DSUHVHQWH EDL[DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH DV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV REVHUYDGDV HP DQLPDLV GD UDoD 1HORUH H PXOWLUUDFLDO%RV LQGLFXV PRVWUDPVH IDYRUiYHLV SULQFLSDOPHQWH HP SHUtRGRV PDLV
UHFHQWHV QR HQWDQWR R FRHILFLHQWH GH UHJUHVVmR PRVWURXVH SHTXHQR *5266, HW DO $528*+ $6/$0,1(-$' )$5+$1*)$5 /$85($12 HW DO (VWHV UHODWRV DSRQWDP TXH HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD GHYH VHU OHYDGD HP FRQVLGHUDomR FRPR FULWpULR GH VHOHomR HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR GHYLGRVXDLPSRUWkQFLDQDFDGHLDSURGXWLYDPHVPRTXHRSURJUHVVRJHQpWLFRVHMD OHQWR6(*85$&255($HWDO
DRUHDOL]DUDH[SRVLomRGDVIrPHDVDRVPDFKRVQRSHUtRGRGHUHSURGXomR$VVLP DV HVWLPDWLYDV GRV SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV DQDOLVDGRV SRGHP GHSHQGHU HP JUDQGH SDUWHGDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGDGDVFLUFXQVWkQFLDVDPELHQWDLVGHVWDSRSXODomRHGR PRGHORGHHVWLPDomRHPHWRGRORJLDXWLOL]DGRV0$*$f$6(*85$
'LDVHWDODQDOLVDUDPWUrVPRGHORVSDUDDQiOLVHGHLGDGHDRSULPHLUR SDUWR FRP GLIHUHQWHV LQFOXV}HV GH HIHLWRV IL[RV H REWLYHUDP PDLRU FRHILFLHQWH GH GHWHUPLQDomR5 QRPRGHORTXHLQFOXLXQRJUXSRGHFRQWHPSRUkQHRVRDQR HVWDomRHID]HQGDGRQDVFLPHQWRGRDQLPDOJUXSRVGHPDQHMRDRQDVFLPHQWRDR GHVPDPH H DR VREUHDQR WLSR GH FREHUWXUD R DQR H D HVWDomR GR SDUWR $OpP GR JUXSR GH FRQWHPSRUkQHRV RV HIHLWRV IL[RV LQFOXtUDP LGDGH GD PmH GR DQLPDO DR SDUWRFRPRHIHLWROLQHDUHTXDGUiWLFRHDPERVVHPRVWUDUDPVLJQLILFDWLYRVS HP GRLV PRGHORV DQDOLVDGRV *URVVL HW DO QmR HQFRQWUDUDP LQIOXrQFLD VLJQLILFDWLYDSDRDQDOLVDUHPRHIHLWRGDLGDGHGDPmHDRSDUWRVREUHDLGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR $SHVDU GDV GLILFXOGDGHV HQFRQWUDGDV SDUD D HVWLPDomR GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV SDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHSURGXWLYDV HVWDV VmR DV TXH PDLV SURPRYHPLPSDFWRHFRQ{PLFRHPXPVLVWHPDSURGXWLYR%580$77,HWDO
$DVVRFLDomRJHQpWLFDHQWUHLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRHGHPDLVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV VmR HVWXGDGDV YLVDQGR LGHQWLILFDU SRVVtYHLVPRGLILFDo}HVDR ORQJR GR SURFHVVR GH VHOHomR TXH LQFOXD LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR FRPR FULWpULR GH VHOHomR %ROLJRQ $OEXTXHUTXHH&DHWDQRHWDOUHODWDUDPFRUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDVEDL[DV HQWUH LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR H SHVR D PDWXULGDGH GD YDFD HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH7DPEpPKiUHODWRVGHDVVRFLDo}HVJHQpWLFDVHQWUHLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR HLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHPGLYHUVDVUDoDVYDULDQGRFRQIRUPHDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGD FRPHVWLPDWLYDVGHD*87,e55(=HWDO9(5*$5$ (/=2&(5Ï108f2=$528*+$6/$0,1(-$')$5+$1*)$5
,QWHUYDORGHSDUWRV
SDUDERYLQRVGHFRUWHGHHGLDVQDVUDoDV$VWXULDQDGHORV 9DOOHV+HUHIRUGH&KDUROrVUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH*87,e55(=HWDO25(1*(HW DO
&RPRDVGHPDLVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVUHSURGXWLYDVRLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVDSUHVHQWD HVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHGHPRGHUDGDVDEDL[DVPDJQLWXGHVFRPRYHULILFDGDV SRU *XWLpUUH] HW DO GH SDUD LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD $VWXULDQD GH ORV 9DOOHV H SRU 3HUHLUD HW DO GH SDUD SULPHLUR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm $ WHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD REVHUYDGD HP ERYLQRV GH FRUWH SRU 9HUJDUD (O]R H &HUyQ0XxR] SDUD HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SHUPDQHFHX SUDWLFDPHQWH LQDOWHUDGD DR ORQJR GRV DQRV VHQGR D FDXVDDWULEXtGDDXPIDWRUDPELHQWDOTXHOLPLWRXDPDLRUH[SUHVVmRGDFDUDFWHUtVWLFD (P ERYLQRV GH OHLWHHVWXGRV WDPEpP REVHUYDUDP DXVrQFLD GHWHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD SDUD SULPHLUR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV H VHJXQGR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HP YDFDV KRODQGHVDV$528*+$6/$0,1(-$')$5+$1*)$53DQHWRHWDO REVHUYRXWHQGrQFLDJHQpWLFDGHVIDYRUiYHOSDUDLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHPYDFDV*X]HUi QRSHUtRGRHVWXGDGR
2PRGHORXWLOL]DGRQDVDQiOLVHVSDUDHVWLPDomRGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUD LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV p PXLWR VHPHOKDQWH DR PRGHOR XWLOL]DGR SDUD D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR FRPR R GHVFULWR SRU *XWLpUUH] HW DO 5DQJHO HW DO DRDQDOLVDUHPDVLJQLILFkQFLDGRVHIHLWRVIL[RVLQFOXtGRVHPVHXPRGHORSDUD YDFDV *X]HUi REVHUYDUDP TXH D pSRFD H DQR GH SDULomR H VH[R GD FULD QmR LQIOXHQFLDUDP VLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH S! D YDULDomR IHQRWtSLFD GR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HQTXDQWR TXH D RUGHP GH SDULomR DSUHVHQWRX HIHLWR TXDGUiWLFR VREUH HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD
5HDOL]DUDPVH HVWXGRV SDUD LGHQWLILFDU SRVVtYHLV DVVRFLDo}HV JHQpWLFDV GH LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV FRP RXWUDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD FRPR IDFLOLGDGHGHSDUWRHSHVRDGHVPDPHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD$VWXULDQDGHORV9DOOHV LGHQWLILFDQGR EDL[DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV DV TXDLV IRUDP LJXDLV D H UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH *87,e55(= 0HUFDGDQWH /{ER H 2OLYHLUD WDPEpPREVHUYDUDPFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDPXLWRSHTXHQDGHSDUDSHVR DRVGLDVGHLGDGHHSULPHLURLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH
3URGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD
$YDFDGHYHLQLFLDURFLFORUHSURGXWLYRSUHFRFHPHQWHHPDQWHUDSHULRGLFLGDGH HP SDULU EH]HUURV H FRP VXD KDELOLGDGH PDWHUQD GHVPDPiORV FRP PDLRU SHVR 3DUD LVWR IRUDP SURSRVWRV tQGLFHV TXH SXGHVVHP UHODFLRQDU WDLV TXDOLGDGHV GH PDQHLUDDGHTXDGDHTXHSXGHVVHPLGHQWLILFDUDSURGXWLYLGDGHGDIrPHD6HJXQGR 5DKQHIHOG:HLVVH:DUGHVWDSURGXWLYLGDGHGHYHULDVHUDYDOLDGDOHYDQGRVH HP FRQVLGHUDomR DV GLIHUHQoDV QR SHVR GD IrPHD HILFLrQFLD UHSURGXWLYD H FUHVFLPHQWRGREH]HUUR
2SURJUDPDGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFRPDQWLGRSHOD$VVRFLDomR1DFLRQDOGH &ULDGRUHV H 3HVTXLVDGRUHV $1&3 SURS{V R tQGLFH GHQRPLQDGR 3URGXWLYLGDGH $FXPXODGD 3$& R TXDO p FDSD] GH IRUQHFHU R SHVR HP TXLORJUDPDV GH EH]HUUR GHVPDPDGR SRU IrPHD SRU DQR VHQGR UHODFLRQDGR GLUHWDPHQWH FRP D LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV 6&+:(1*%(5 %(=(55$ /Ð%2 H SHVRDRGHVPDPH$3$&pXPtQGLFHTXHH[LJHGDGRVGHWDOKDGRVVREUHDPDWUL]H VXD SURJrQLH (QWUHWDQWR HVWD p XPD PHGLGD FRPSOHWD GD SURGXWLYLGDGH GH XPD IrPHD FRQVLGHUDQGR VXD SUHFRFLGDGH VH[XDO IHUWLOLGDGH ORQJHYLGDGH H KDELOLGDGH PDWHUQD VHQGR DVVLP LQWHUHVVDQWH VXD DSOLFDomR QDV SURSULHGDGHV GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH526$
$ 3$& p REWLGD GD VHJXLQWH IRUPD 3$& 3G [ QS [ & ,93Q ± & /Ð%2 HW DO HP TXH 3G p SHVR PpGLR GRV EH]HUURV DR GHVPDPH SDGURQL]DGRSDUDGLDVGHLGDGHQSpQ~PHURWRWDOGHEH]HUURVSURGX]LGRV& pFRQVWDQWHLJXDODGLDVTXHSHUPLWHH[SUHVVDUDIHUWLOLGDGHHPEDVHDQXDO,93Q p LGDGH GD YDFD DR XOWLPR SDUWR & p FRQVWDQWH LJXDO D GLDV &RQVLGHUDQGR TXHDPHWDGR30*511HORUH%UDVLOSDUDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRpGHPHVHV RX VHMD ,93Q LJXDO D GLDV WHPVH TXH R FiOFXOR GH 3$& SDUD XPD YDFD SULPtSDUDTXHDWLQJLXHVWDPHWDUHVXOWDHP3$& 3G[QS[± 3G [[ 3G3RUWDQWRFRQVLGHUDQGRDPHWDHVWDEHOHFLGDSDUDLGDGHDR SULPHLURSDUWRDSULPHLUD3$&pUHSUHVHQWDGDSHORSHVRDRGHVPDPHGRSULPHLUR EH]HUURQDVFLGRGDYDFD
5HVXOWDGRV REWLGRV SRU 5RVD H 6FKZHQJEHU %H]HUUD H /{ER LQGLFDUDPYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDDGLWLYDVXILFLHQWHSDUDTXHD3$&IRVVHLQFOXtGDHP XPSURJUDPDGHVHOHomR*URVVLHWDOXWLOL]DQGRDQiOLVHELFDUDFWHUtVWLFDFRP LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR GLIHUHQWHV SHVRV FRUSRUDLV H GLIHUHQWHV FLUFXQIHUrQFLDV HVFURWDLVREWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUD3$&TXHYDULDUDPGHD HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH (VWH PHVPR HVWXGR UHYHORX WHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD IDYRUiYHOSDUDHVWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDQRSHUtRGRHVWXGDGR5HVXOWDGRVHPHOKDQWHSDUD 3$&WDPEpPIRLUHODWDGRSRU5RVDRTXHLQGLFDTXHHVWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDSRGH DSUHVHQWDUUHVSRVWDVLJQLILFDWLYDHIDYRUiYHODRVHULQFOXtGDFRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomR (VWXGRV UHDOL]DGRV FRP D 3$& VmR HVFDVVRV REVHUYDQGR SRXFDV FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV GHVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHSURGXWLYDV *URVVL HW DO REVHUYDUDP FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD DOWD H QHJDWLYD LJXDO D HQWUH LGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRH3$&HPERYLQRV1HORUHRTXHLQGLFRXTXHVHOHomRSDUD ,33SRGHIDYRUHFHURDXPHQWRQD3$&QHVWDUDoD
5()(5Ç1&,$6
$%&7 $VVRFLDomR %UDVLOHLUD GRV &ULDGRUHV GH 7DEDSXm ± $%&7 +LVWyULD GD UDoD
7DEDSXm 'LVSRQtYHO HP
KWWSZZZWDEDSXDRUJEULQGH[SKS"SDJLQD QDYDEFWBKLVWRULD! $FHVVR HP GH IHYHUHLURGH
$%(5$ + $%(*$= 6 0(.$6+$ < *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHU HVWLPDWHV RI SUH ZHDQLQJZHLJKWRI+RUUR=HEXDQGWKHLUFURVVHVZLWK+ROVWHLQ)ULHVLDQDQG-HUVH\ FDWWOH EUHHGV LQ (WKLRSLD,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDO RI /LYHVWRFN 3URGXFWLRQ 9LFWRULD ,VODQGYQS
$%<%$$$66/6(+(67('%(9$1*(12(IIHFWVRIFKDQJHVLQH[WHUQDO SURGXFWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV RQ HFRQRPLF YDOXHV RI WUDLWV LQ &RQWLQHQWDO DQG %ULWLVK EHHI FDWWOHEUHHGV/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGYS
$/%848(548(/*0(<(5.(VWLPDWHVRIGLUHFWDQGPDWHUQDOJHQHWLFHIIHFWV IRU ZHLJKWV IURP ELUWK WR GD\V RI DJH LQ 1HORUH FDWWOH-RXUQDO RI $QLPDO %UHHGLQJDQG*HQHWLFV0DOGHQYS
$18$/3(&DQXiULRGDSHFXiULDEUDVLOHLUD6mR3DXOR,QIRUPD(FRQRPLFV )13S
$5$Ò-252525$72351:(%(57(9(5/,1*'0/23(6-6 '251(//(6 0 $ *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG SKHQRW\SLF DQG JHQHWLF WUHQGV IRU ZHLJKWDWZHDQLQJDQGYLVXDOVFRUHVGXULQJWKLVSKDVHHVWLPDWHGIRU$QJXV1HOORUH FURVVEUHG\RXQJEXOOV5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS ±
$528*+ + ) $6/$0,1(-$' $ $ )$5+$1*)$5 + (VWLPDWLRQ RI JHQHWLF SDUDPHWHUVDQGWUHQGVIRUDJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJDQGFDOYLQJLQWHUYDOLQ,UDQLDQ+ROVWHLQ FRZV-RXUQDO RI 5HVHDUFK LQ $JULFXOWXUDO 6FLHQFH %KRSDO Y Q S
$=(9Ç'2'0050$57,16),/+25/Ð%2 5 1 % /Ð%2 5 % 0285$ $ $ $ 1 3,0(17$ ),/+2 ( & 0$/+$'2 & + 0 3URGXWLYLGDGH DFXPXODGD3$&GDVPDWUL]HVHPUHEDQKRV1HORUHGR1RUWHH1RUGHVWHGR%UDVLO 5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS
%$/,(,52 ( 6 3(5(,5$ - & & 9(51(48( 5 6 %$/,(,52 - & & 9$/(17(-(VWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHHFRUUHODo}HVIHQRWtSLFDVJHQpWLFDVHGH DPELHQWHHQWUHDOJXPDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVUHSURGXWLYDVHSURGXomRGHOHLWHQDUDoD*LU $UTXLYR%UDVLOHLURGH0HGLFLQD9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYQ S±
%2,&+$5''0$,*1(//9(55,(5(7KHYDOXHRIXVLQJSUREDELOLWLHVRIJHQH RULJLQWRPHDVXUHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\LQDSRSXODWLRQ*HQHWLFV6HOHFWLRQ(YROXWLRQ /RQGUHVYQS
%2/,*21 $ $ $/%848(548( / * 0(5&$'$17( 0 ( = /Ð%2 5 % 6WXG\RIUHODWLRQVDPRQJDJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJDYHUDJHZHLJKWJDLQVDQGZHLJKWVIURP ZHDQLQJWRPDWXULW\LQ1HOORUHFDWWOH5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDY QS±
%2/,*21 $ $ $/%848(548( / * *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG UHODWLRQVKLSV RI KHLIHUSUHJQDQF\DQGDJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJZLWKZHLJKWJDLQ\HDUOLQJDQGPDWXUHZHLJKW LQ1HORUHFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGYS±
%2/,*21 $ $ %$/', ) $/%848(548( / * *HQHWLF FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ KHLIHU VXEVHTXHQW UHEUHHGLQJ DQG DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ DQG JURZWK WUDLWV LQ 1HOORUH FDWWOHE\%D\HVLDQLQIHUHQFH*HQHWLFVDQG0ROHFXODU5HVHDUFK5LEHLUmR3UHWRY QS±
%580$77, 5 & )(55$= - % 6 (/(5 - 3 )250,*211, , % 'HVHQYROYLPHQWRGHtQGLFHGHVHOHomRHPJDGRFRUWHVRERHQIRTXHGHXPPRGHOR ELRHFRQ{PLFR$UFKLYRVGH=RRWHFQLD&yUGREDYQS±
&$(7$126/6$9(*1$*253%2/,*21$$5$0266%&+8'7 & 6 /Ð%2 5 % 081$5, ' 3 (VWLPDWH RI JHQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV IRU FDUFDVV JURZWKDQGUHSURGXFWLYHWUDLWVLQ1HOORUHFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGY QS±
&$,5(6 ' 1 0$/+$'2 & + 0 628=$ / $ 7(,;(,5$ 1(72 0 5 &$51(,52 3 / 6 0$57,16 ),/+2 5 7DEDSXm EUHHG LQ QRUWKHDVWHUQ %UD]LO JHQHWLF SURJUHVV DQG SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 3LUDFLFDEDYQS±
&(3($ &HQWUR GH HVWXGRV DYDQoDGRV HP HFRQRPLD DSOLFDGD ± &(3($ (6$/4863 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSFHSHDHVDOTXVSEUSLE! $FHVVR HP GHMXQKRGH
'$1&+,1%85*8(&/(52<*%52&+$5'00285($8;69(55,(5 ((YROXWLRQRIWKHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\RIHLJKW)UHQFKGDLU\FDWWOHEUHHGVDVVHVVHGE\ SHGLJUHH DQDO\VLV-RXUQDO RI $QLPDO %UHHGLQJ DQG *HQHWLFV0DOGHQ Y S ±
',$6/7)$52/($/%848(548(/*(VWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUD LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR GH QRYLOKDV GD UDoD 1HORUH 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS
'8$57(0/35%$6726-)3$YDOLDomRGHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVUHSURGXWLYDVGH XPUHEDQKRGDUDoD*X]HUi&XOWXUDDJURQ{PLFD,OKDVROWHLUDYQS
'811(5 6 &+(&$ 0 / *87,e55(= 3 0$57Ë1 3 &$fÏ1 -*HQHWLF DQDO\VLV DQG PDQDJHPHQW LQ VPDOO SRSXODWLRQV WKH $VWXUFRQ SRQ\ DV DQ H[DPSOH*HQHWLFV6HOHFWLRQ(YROXWLRQ/RQGUHVYS±
)$2)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQ6HFRQGDU\JXLGHOLQHVIRUGHYHORSPHQWRI QDWLRQDO IDUP DQLPDO JHQHWLF UHVRXUFHV PDQDJHPHQW SODQV PDQDJHPHQW RI VPDOO
SRSXODWLRQV DW ULVN )$2 5RPH ,WDO\ 'LVSRQtYHO HP
KWWSZZZIDRRUJDJDJDLQIRSURJUDPPHVSWOHDGWRROER[,QGXVWVPOSRSQSGI! $FHVVRHPGHMXQKRGH
)$2 )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ± )$267$7 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSIDRVWDWIDRRUJKRPHLQGH[KWPO9,68$/,=(B%<B'20$,1! $FHVVRHPGHIHYHUHLURGH
)$2 )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ± )$267$7 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSIDRVWDWIDRRUJIDRVWDWJDWHZD\JRWRGRZQORDG44$(! $FHVVRHPGHDEULOGH
)(55$=),/+23%5$026$$6,/9$/2&628=$-&$/(1&$5 0 0 $OWHUQDWLYH DQLPDO PRGHOV WR HVWLPDWH KHULWDELOLWLHV DQG JHQHWLF FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQGLUHFWDQGPDWHUQDOHIIHFWVRI3UHDQG3RVW:HDQLQJZHLJKWVRI7DEDSXm FDWWOH$UFKLYRV/DWLQRDPHULFDQRVGH3URGXFFLRQ$QLPDO0DUDFDLERYQ S
)(55$= - % 6 )(/Ë&,2 3 ( 3URGXFWLRQ V\VWHPV ± $Q H[DPSOH IURP %UD]LO 0HDW6FLHQFH/RXJKERURXJKYS
)5(,7$6$5/2,%(/60&$1'5$'(0*9$/-%50RGHODJHPGR FUHVFLPHQWR SRSXODFLRQDO GR UHEDQKR ERYLQR EUDVLOHLUR 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYS6XSOHPHQWRHVSHFLDO
)5(,7$6 *7DEDSXm FRQKHoDR ³]HEX EUDVLOHLUR´ FRPPXVFXODWXUDPDQVLGmRH
KDELOLGDGH PDWHUQD %HHI3RLQW 'LVSRQtYHO HP
KWWSZZZEHHISRLQWFRPEUFDGHLDSURGXWLYDUDFDVHJHQHWLFDWDEDSXDFRQKHFDR ]HEXEUDVLOHLURFRPPXVFXODWXUDPDQVLGDRHKDELOLGDGHPDWHUQDSURMHWRUDFDV! $FHVVRHPGHMXOKRGH
*21d$/9(670',$60$'$=(9('2-81,25-52'5,*8(=0$3 7,03$1, 9 ' 2/,9(,5$ $ , * &XUYDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR GH IrPHDV GD UDoD 1HORUHHVHXVFUX]DPHQWRV&LrQFLDH$JURWHFQRORJLD/DYUDVYQS
*5266,'$)5,==$62*3$=&&3%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25% 2/,9(,5$ - $ 081$5, ' 3 *HQHWLF DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ DFFXPXODWHG SURGXFWLYLW\DQGUHSURGXFWLYHDQGJURZWKWUDLWVLQ1HORUHFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH 2[IRUGYS
*5266,'$9(1785,1,*&3$=&&3%(=(55$/$)/2%25% 2/,9(,5$ -$ 081$5, ' 3*HQHWLF DVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQDJH DWILUVW FDOYLQJ DQGKHLIHUERG\ZHLJKWDQGVFURWDOFLUFXPIHUHQFHLQ1HORUHFDWWOH-RXUQDORI$QLPDO %UHHGLQJDQG*HQHWLFV-RNLRLQHQYS
*8,'2/,1'*)*583,21,19&+8'7&685%,1$7,,/Ð%25% %(=(55$/$)3$=&&3081$5,'3*HQHWLFDVVRFLDWLRQIRUJURZWK UHSURGXFWLYH DQG FDUFDVV WUDLWV LQ *X]HUi EHHI FDWWOH ,Q 3URFHHGLQJV RI WK :RU OG &RQJUHVV RQ *HQHWLFV $SSOLHG WR /LYHVWRFN SURGXFWLRQ /HLSL]LJ *HUPDQ\ 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSZZZNRQJUHVVEDQGGHZFJDOSDVVHWVSGISGI! $FHVVDGRHPGHMDQHLURGH
*87,e55(= 3 $/9$5(= , )(51È1'(= , 52<2 / 'Ë(= -*2<$&+( ) *HQHWLF UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ FDOYLQJ GDWH FDOYLQJ LQWHUYDO DJH DW ILUVWFDOYLQJDQGW\SHWUDLWVLQEHHIFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN3URGXFWLRQ6FLHQFH2[IRUGY S
*87,e55(= 3 *2<$&+( ) )(51È1'(= , $/9$5(= , 52<2 / -*HQHWLFUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJFDOYLQJHDVHFDOYLQJLQWHUYDOELUWKZHLJKWDQGZHDQLQJ ZHLJKWLQWKH$VWXULDQDGHORV9DOOHVEHHIFDWWOHEUHHG-RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH
&KDPSDLJQYS
/$&<5&$QDO\VLVRIIRXQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQLQSHGLJUHHVIRXQGHUHTXLYDOHQWDQG IRXQGHUJHQRPHHTXLYDOHQWV=RR%LRORJ\0DOGHQYQS
/$85($12000%2/,*21$$&267$5%)251,66(9(52-/ 3 $/%848(548( / * (VWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH H WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV SDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR H UHSURGXWLYDV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH $UTXLYR%UDVLOHLURGH0HGLFLQD9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYQ S±
/Ð%2 5 % %(=(55$ / $ ) 2/,9(,5$ + 1 *$51(52 $ 9 6&+:(1*%(5(%0$5&21'(6&5$YDOLDomRJHQpWLFDGHDQLPDLVMRYHQV WRXURVHPDWUL]HV5LEHLUmR3UHWR8QLYHUVLGDGHGH6mR3DXOR*(0$&
0$*$f$ - * 6(*85$ - & +HULWDELOLW\ DQGIDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJJURZWK WUDLWV DQG DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ RI ]HEX EHHI KHLIHUV LQ VRXWKHDVWHUQ 0H[LFR7URSLFDO $QLPDO +HDOWKDQG3URGXFWLRQ(GLQEXUJKYS
0$,*1(/ / %2,&+$5' ' 9(55,(5 ( *HQHWLF YDULDELOLW\ RI )UHQFK GDLU\ EUHHGV HVWLPDWHG IURP SHGLJUHH LQIRUPDWLRQ,QWHUEXOO %XOOHWLQ 8SSVDOD Q S
0$/+$'2&+0&$51(,523/60$57,16),/+25$=(9('2'0 0 5 )$&Ï 2 0$&+$'2 & + & 3,&&,1,1 $7HQGrQFLD H SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRVSDUDRSHVRDRVGLDVGHLGDGHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHPRFKRQR HVWDGRGD%DKLD5HYLVWD&LHQWtILFDGH3URGXomR$QLPDO7HUHVLQDYQS
0$/+$'2& + 0 &$51(,52 3 / 6 3(5(,5$' * 0$57,16 ),/+2 5 3URJUHVVRJHQpWLFRHHVWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDOGRUHEDQKR1HORUHQR(VWDGRGD%DKLD 3HVTXLVD$JURSHFXiULD%UDVLOHLUD%UDVtOLDYQS
0$/+$'2&+0&$51(,523/60$/+$'2$&00$57,16),/+2 5 %2==, 5 /$'/( 5 - *HQHWLF LPSURYHPHQW DQG SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH RI WKH 1HORUHEUHHGLQ1RUWKHUQ%UD]LO3HVTXLVD$JURSHFXiULD%UDVLOHLUD%UDVtOLDY QS
0È548(=*&63(,'(/6((11650*$55,&.'-*HQHWLFGLYHUVLW\ DQGSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHRI$PHULFDQ5HG$QJXVFDWWOH-RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH &KDPSDLJQYS±
0(5&$'$17( 0 ( = /Ð%2 5 % 2/,9(,5$ + 1 (VWLPDWLYDV GH &R9DULkQFLDVHQWUHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHUHSURGXomRHGHFUHVFLPHQWRHPIrPHDVGH XPUHEDQKR1HORUH5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS
0,//(1 ' ' 3$&+(&2 5 ' / 0(<(5 3 0 52'5,*8(6 3 + 0 $55,*21, 0 % &XUUHQW RXWORRN DQG IXWXUH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI EHHI SURGXFWLRQ LQ %UD]LO$QLPDO)URQWLHUV&KDPSDLJQYQ
2/,9(,5$366$17$1$-Ò1,250/3('526$9%2/,9(,5$(&0 (/(5-3)(55$=-%6(VWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDOGHUHEDQKRIHFKDGRGDUDoD 1HORUHGDOLQKDJHP/HPJUXEHU3HVTXLVD$JURSHFXiULD%UDVLOHLUD%UDVtOLDY QS±
25(1*( - 6 . ,/$76,$ ( ' .26*(< , 6 .$+, $ . *HQHWLF DQG SKHQRW\SLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG DQQXDO WUHQGV IRU JURZWK DQG IHUWLOLW\ WUDLWV RI &KDURODLV DQG+HUHIRUGEHHIFDWWOHEUHHGVLQ.HQ\D7URSLFDO$QLPDO+HDOWKDQG3URGXFWLRQ (GLQEXUJKYS
3$1(72 - & & )(55$= - % 6 %$/,(,52 - & & %,77$5 - ) ) )(55(,5$ 0 % ' /(,7( 0 % 0(5,*+( * . ) 0(,5(//(6 ) 9 %RV LQGLFXVRU%RVWDXUXVPLWRFKRQGULDO'1$FRPSDULVRQRISURGXFWLYHDQGUHSURGXFWLYH EUHHGLQJ YDOXHV LQ D *X]HUDW GDLU\ KHUG*HQHWLFV DQG 0ROHFXODU 5HVHDUFK 5LEHLUmR3UHWRYQS±
3$1(772 - & & *87,e55(= - 3 )(55$= - % 6 &81+$ ' * *2/'(1%/DVVHVVPHQWRILQEUHHGLQJGHSUHVVLRQLQD*X]HUDWGDLU\KHUGHIIHFWV RI LQGLYLGXDO LQFUHDVH LQ LQEUHHGLQJ FRHIILFLHQWV RQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG UHSURGXFWLRQ -RXUQDORI'DLU\6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQYS±
3(/,&,21,/&081,=&$6'48(,52=6$$YDOLDomRGRGHVHPSHQKR DR SULPHLUR SDUWR GH IrPHDV 1HORUH H ) 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 3LUDFLFDEDYQS
3(5(,5$-&&5,%(,526+$6,/9$0$%(5*0$11-$*&267$ 0 ' $QiOLVH JHQpWLFD GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SRQGHUDLV H UHSURGXWLYDV GH IrPHDV ERYLQDV7DEDSXm$UTXLYR %UDVLOHLUR GH 0HGLFLQD 9HWHULQiULDH =RRWHFQLD %HOR +RUL]RQWHYS6XSOHPHQWRHVSHFLDO
48(,52= 6 $ $/%848(548( / * /$1=21, 1 $ (IHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD *LU QR %UDVLO5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS±
5$1*(/$+1*8('(63/&$/%848(548(53)129$,6/3 /,0$-Ò1,25'0,QWHUYDORHQWUHSDUWRVHSHUtRGRGHVHUYLoRGHYDFDV*X]HUi 5HYLVWD9HUGH0RVVRUyYQS
5(6(1'(-93URGXomRGHFDUQH7HPSRGHDEDWHGHERYLQRVFDLSDUDPHQRVGH GRLV DQRV PDLV OXFUR H PHOKRU TXDOLGDGH 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSZZZDSWDVSJRYEUQRWLFLDVSKS"LG ! $FHVVR HP GH PDUoR GH
5,%(,52 6 + $ 3(5(,5$ - & & 9(51(48( 5 6 6,/9$ 0 $ %(5*0$11 - $ * 0$548(6 ) 6 (VWXGR JHQpWLFRTXDQWLWDWLYR GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR QD UDoD 7DEDSXm$UTXLYR %UDVLOHLUR GH 0HGLFLQD 9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYQS
52.28(, 0 7256+,=, 5 9 6+$+5%$%$. 0 0 6$5*2/=$(, 0 65(16(1 $ & 0RQLWRULQJ LQEUHHGLQJ WUHQGV DQG LQEUHHGLQJ GHSUHVVLRQ IRU HFRQRPLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW WUDLWV RI +ROVWHLQ FDWWOH LQ ,UDQ-RXUQDO RI 'DLU\ 6FLHQFH &KDPSDLJQYQS±
526$ $ 1 9DULDELOLGDGH IHQRWtSLFD H JHQpWLFD GR SHVR DGXOWR H GD SURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGDGHPDWUL]HVHPUHEDQKRVGHVHOHomRGDUDoD1HORUH QR %UDVLO I 'LVVHUWDomR 'RXWRUDGR HP &LrQFLDV )DFXOGDGH GH 0HGLFLQDGH5LEHLUmR3UHWR8QLYHUVLGDGHGH6mR3DXOR5LEHLUmR3UHWR
6$17$1$ -5 0 / 2/,9(,5$ 3 6 3('526$ 9 % (/(5 - 3 *52(1(9(/' ( )(55$= - % 6 (IIHFW RI LQEUHHGLQJ RQ JURZWK DQG UHSURGXFWLYHWUDLWVRI1HOORUHFDWWOHLQ%UD]LO/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGYS
6$17¶$11$ $ & 3$5$1+26 '$ &267$ 0 - 5 %$/', ) 58('$ 3 0 $/%848(548(/**HQHWLFDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQÀLJKWVSHHGDQGJURZWKWUDLWV LQ 1HOORUH FDWWOH -RXUQDO RI $QLPDO 6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQ Y S ±
6&+:(1*%(5(%%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25%3URGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD FRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomRHPIrPHDVGDUDoD1HORUH&LrQFLD5XUDO6DQWD0DULDY QS
6&+(1.(/)6/$*,2,$'55,%2/',-1tYHLVGHHQGRJDPLDHGHSUHVVmR HQGRJkPLFDQRJDQKRGHSHVRGHUDoDV]HEXtQDVQREUDVLO,Q$QDLVGR,96LPSyVLR 1DFLRQDO GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO 9LoRVD $QDLV HOHWU{QLFRV GR ,9 6LPSyVLR 1DFLRQDO GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO 9LoRVD 8)9 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSVEPDRQOLQHRUJEUDQDLVLYWUDEDOKRV!$FHVVRHPPDU
6(*85$&255($ - & &+,1&2//, 5 & 0$*$f$021)257( - * 1Òf(='20Ë1*8(= 5 *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUVIRUELUWK ZHLJKW ZHDQLQJ ZHLJKW DQG DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ LQ %URZQ 6ZLVV FDWWOH LQ 0H[LFR7URSLFDO $QLPDO +HDOWK DQG 3URGXFWLRQ(GLQEXUJKYS
6(1$-660$726$60$5&21'(6&5%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25 % 3DUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV WHQGrQFLDV H UHVSRVWD j VHOHomR GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SURGXWLYDV GD UDoD 1HORUH QD $PD]{QLD /HJDO$WDV GH 6D~GH$PELHQWDO 6mR 3DXORYQS
6286$0)$0$57,16),/+256286$-Ò1,256&)216&(&$:-/ 6286$ * * 7 6286$0)$0$57,16),/+256286$-Ò1,256&)216&(&$:-/8= & 6 0 %$5526 -81,25 & 3 $5$8-2 $ & $5$Ò-2-,0(VWLPDWLRQRISKHQRW\SLFDQGJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVDQGJHQHWLFWUHQG RI ZHLJKWV LQ WKH ZHDQLQJ SKDVH 3 ZHLJKW DW RQH \HDU 3 WKH \HDUOLQJ 3 LQ 1HOORUH FDWWOH LQ WKH 1RUWKHUQ UHJLRQ DQG 8QGHU5HJLRQ 0LGGOH1RUWK RI %UD]LO-RXUQDORI$JULFXOWXUDO6FLHQFH7RURQWRYQS±
628=$ 0 & $ )(55$= ),/+2 3 % 6,/9$ / 2 & 628=$ - & 0$/+$'2 & + 0 (IHLWRV JHQpWLFRV H DPELHQWDLV VREUH SHVRV j GHVPDPD GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH PRFKD QD UHJLmR SHFXiULD 2HVWH 6mR 3DXOR ± 3DUDQi $UFKLYHVRI9HWHULQDU\6FLHQFH&XULWLEDYQS
628=$-&6,/9$/2&*21'2$)5(,7$6-$0$/+$'2&+0 ),/+2 3 % ) 6(5(12 - 5 % :($%(5 5 / 3DUkPHWURV H WHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD GH SHVR GH ERYLQRV FULDGRV i SDVWR QR %UDVLO$UFKLYRV GH =RRWHFQLD &yUGREDYQS±
9(5*$5$ 2 ' (/=2 0 $ &(5Ï108f2= 0 ) *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG JHQHWLF WUHQGV IRU DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ DQG FDOYLQJ LQWHUYDO LQ DQ $QJXV%ODQFR 2UHMLQHJUR=HEX PXOWLEUHHG FDWWOH SRSXODWLRQ LQ &RORPELD /LYHVWRFN 6FLHQFH 2[IRUGYS±
:5,*+76&RHIILFLHQWVRILQEUHHGLQJDQGUHODWLRQVKLS7KH $PHULFDQ1DWXUDOLVW &KLFDJRYQS±
:5,*+76(YROXWLRQLQ0HQGHOLDQSRSXODWLRQV*HQHWLFV%HWKHVGDYQS ±
=8,15*%8=$16.$60(&$(7$126/9(1785,1,*&*8,'2/,1 '*)*5266,'$&+8'7&63$=&&3/Ð%25%081$5,' 3 *HQHWLF DQDO\VLV RQ JURZWK DQG FDUFDVV WUDLWV LQ 1HORUH FDWWOH0HDW 6FLHQFH
&$3Ë78/2 ± (6758785$ 3238/$&,21$/ '$ 5$d$ 7$%$38 87,/,=$1'2$1È/,6('(3(',*5((
5(6802±'XUDQWHRGHVHQYROYLPHQWRGDUDoDGHERYLQRVGHFRUWH7DEDSXm KRXYH LQWHQVD XWLOL]DomR GH DSHQDV XP UHSURGXWRU SDUD D IRUPDomR GRV UHEDQKRV $VVLPpSUHFLVRPRQLWRUDURJUDXGHHQGRJDPLDQDSRSXODomRFXMDVFRQVHTXrQFLDV VmR D SHUGD HP YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD H TXHGD GR GHVHPSHQKR ]RRWpFQLFR (VWH WUDEDOKR WHYH FRPR REMHWLYR DYDOLDU D HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO H D UHODomR OLQHDU GH FODVVHVGHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDFRPDVPpGLDVGRVYDORUHVIHQRWtSLFRVGHSHVR DRGHVPDPHDMXVWDGRSDUDGLDVGHLGDGH3LGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR,33 LQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV,3HSURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD3$&)RUDPXWLOL]DGRVUHJLVWURV IHQRWtSLFRV GH YDFDV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm SHUWHQFHQWHV DR 3URJUDPD GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR *HQpWLFR GD 5DoD 7DEDSXm 30*57 PDQWLGR SHOD $VVRFLDomR 1DFLRQDO GH &ULDGRUHV H 3HVTXLVDGRUHV $1&3 2 DUTXLYR GH SHGLJUHH FRQWLQKD DQLPDLV $ PpGLD GH LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH REVHUYDGD QDV ~OWLPDV JHUDo}HVIRLLJXDOD2Q~PHURGHJHUDo}HVFRPSOHWDPi[LPDHHTXLYDOHQWH IRLLJXDODHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH2Q~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVIRLLJXDOD H R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV IRL LJXDO D VHQGR D UD]mR HQWUH DPERV LJXDO D R TXH LQGLFD DXVrQFLD GH HIHLWR GH JDUJDOR JHQpWLFR SDUD HVWD SRSXODomR2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDPpGLRIRLGHHREVHUYRXVHDXPHQWR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR SDUHQWHVFR PpGLR H SRUFHQWDJHP GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV (QWUH RV DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV YHULILFRXVH UHGXomR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR H REVHUYRXVH SHTXHQR WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR SDUD D ~OWLPD JHUDomR $ UHJUHVVmR VREUH FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDIRLQmRVLJQLILFDWLYDS!SDUD3,33,3H3$&2 DXPHQWR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR H R SHTXHQR WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR SDUD D ~OWLPD JHUDomR LQGLFRX TXH GHYHVH HYLWDU R DFDVDODPHQWR HQWUH DQLPDLV DSDUHQWDGRV H R XVR LQWHQVLYR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV $V DQiOLVHV GH UHJUHVVmR OLQHDU HQWUH PpGLD GH YDORUHV IHQRWtSLFRV H FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLDLQGLFDUDPTXHDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVQmRVRIUHUDPGHSUHVVmRHQGRJkPLFD
3DODYUDVFKDYH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH HQGRJDPLD LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH Q~PHUR HIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVWDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR
,1752'8d2
$ UDoD GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH 7DEDSXm SRVVXL D UXVWLFLGDGH GRV ]HEXtQRV H p RULJLQDULDPHQWH PRFKD R TXH HYLWD OHV}HV HQWUH RV DQLPDLV H SHVVRDV HP DPELHQWHV GH PDQHMR 6$17,$*2 1R SHUtRGR HQWUH H KRXYH DXPHQWR GH UHJLVWURV GHILQLWLYRV GH DQLPDLV GHVVD UDoD $%&= 2 7DEDSXmIRLRILFLDOL]DGRFRPRXPDUDoDQRSDtVHPHIRLIRUPDGDSRUPHLRGR FUX]DPHQWR HQWUH IrPHDV GD UDoD 1HORUH FRP UHSURGXWRU PHVWLoR GH PRFKR QDFLRQDO*LUH*X]HUi$QLPDLVQDVFLGRVDQWHVGHVWDGDWDHUDPFRQVLGHUDGRVFRPR QRYR WLSR GH JDGR LQGLDQR (PERUD D UDoD WHQKD VLGR D SULPHLUD GRV QHR]HEXtQRV IRUPDGD SRU SODQHMDPHQWR ]RRWpFQLFR $%&7 WRGR R UHEDQKR DWXDO GHVFHQGHX GH DSHQDV XP PDFKR FDUDFWHUL]DQGR D XQLIRUPLGDGH REVHUYDGD QRV UHEDQKRV3RUWDQWRRIDWRGHDSHQDVXPUHSURGXWRUWHUVLGRDEDVHGDIRUPDomRGD UDoDSRGHUHVXOWDUHPGLPLQXLomRGDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDSRSXODomR
2XWURIDWRUTXHSRGHGLPLQXLUDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDHFRQVHTXHQWHPHQWH DXPHQWDU R JUDX GH HQGRJDPLD GD SRSXODomR p R XVR GH ELRWHFQRORJLDV GH UHSURGXomR FRPR LQVHPLQDomR DUWLILFLDO QDWXUDO H HP WHPSR IL[R WUDQVIHUrQFLD GH HPEULmRHIHUWLOL]DomRLQYLWURTXHVmRXWLOL]DGDVQRVLVWHPDGHSURGXomREUDVLOHLUR
$OJXPDV GHVWDV ELRWHFQRORJLDV SHUPLWHP R DXPHQWR QR Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV SURGX]LGRVQRUHEDQKRFRPLVVRSRVVLELOLWDPDUHGXomRQRLQWHUYDORGHJHUDo}HVH R DXPHQWR GD LQWHQVLGDGH GH VHOHomR DPSOLDQGR DVVLP R JDQKR JHQpWLFR GR UHEDQKR 1R HQWDQWRR DXPHQWR QD LQWHQVLGDGHGH VHOHomR UHVWULQJH R Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV D VHUHP XWLOL]DGRV FRPR UHSURGXWRUHV IDWRU TXH GHYH VHU ULJRURVDPHQWH FRQWURODGR GHYLGR DR SRVVtYHO DXPHQWR QD HQGRJDPLD H FRQVHTXHQWH UHGXomR QD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFD3(5(,5$
GLILFXOGDGH GH SDUWR SDUD YDFDV +RODQGHVDV GHYLGR DRV HIHLWRV GD HQGRJDPLD $VVLP R DXPHQWR GD HQGRJDPLD H FRQVHTXHQWH HIHLWR QHJDWLYR HP GHVHPSHQKRV IHQRWtSLFRVGHYHPVHUDFRPSDQKDGRVHPSURJUDPDVGHVHOHomR
2REMHWLYRGHVWHHVWXGRIRLDYDOLDUDHVWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDOGHXPDSRSXODomR GHERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXmXWLOL]DQGRLQIRUPDo}HVGHSHGLJUHHDILPGHYHULILFDUDV FRQVHTXrQFLDV GD XWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV QD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR DOpP GD HQGRJDPLD H VHXV HIHLWRV QR GHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFRGRVDQLPDLV
0$7(5,$/(0e72'26
'HVFULomRGRFRQMXQWRGHGDGRV
1HVWH HVWXGR IRUDP XWLOL]DGRV RV UHJLVWURV IHQRWtSLFRV GH YDFDV QDVFLGDV HQWUH D H R SHGLJUHH GH DQLPDLV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm QDVFLGRVHQWUHDSHUWHQFHQWHVDSURSULHGDGHVGRHVWDGRGH6mR3DXOR %DKLD0LQDV*HUDLV0DWR*URVVRGR6XO0DWR*URVVR*RLiV7RFDQWLQVH3DUDQi 2 FRQMXQWR GHGDGRV IRL REWLGRV MXQWR DR 3URJUDPD GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR *HQpWLFR GD 5DoD 7DEDSXm 30*57 PDQWLGR SHOD $VVRFLDomR 1DFLRQDO GH &ULDGRUHV H 3HVTXLVDGRUHV $1&3 'R WRWDO GH UHJLVWURV GDGRV QmR SRVVXtUDP LQIRUPDomRJHQHDOyJLFDGHSDLHPmHDQLPDLVQmRSRVVXtUDPLQIRUPDomRVREUH RSDLHQmRSRVVXtUDPLQIRUPDomRVREUHDPmH
2VSDUkPHWURVSRSXODFLRQDLVIRUDPHVWLPDGRVXWLOL]DQGRRSURJUDPD(1'2* *87,e55(=*2<$&+((VWHSURJUDPDH[LJHDQXPHUDomRVHTXHQFLDO GR SHGLJUHH D TXDO IRL UHDOL]DGD SRU PHLR GR SURJUDPD &)& 6$5*2/=$(, ,:$,6$.,&2//($8
,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH
$LQWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHHSHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDURTXDQWRGRSHGLJUHHHPFDGD JHUDomR HVWi FRPSOHWR 2 Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV IRL FDOFXODGR GH WUrV PDQHLUDV Q~PHURGHJHUDo}HVFRPSOHWDVREWLGRSHORQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVHPTXHDPERVRV SDLV VmR FRQKHFLGRV Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV Pi[LPDV REWLGR SHOR Q~PHUR WRWDO GH JHUDo}HV SRVVtYHLV VHQGR RV SDLV FRQKHFLGRV RX QmR H Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV
HTXLYDOHQWHV FDOFXODGR SHOR VRPDWyULR GHͳ ʹ
HP TXH p R Q~PHUR GH
JHUDo}HV TXH R LQGLYtGXR p VHSDUDGR GH FDGD DQFHVWUDO GR TXDO VH WHP UHJLVWUR FRQKHFLGR0$,*1(/%2,&+$5'9(55,(5
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV
5HSURGXWRUHV TXH SRVVXHP SDL H PmH GHVFRQKHFLGR VmR FRQVLGHUDGRV IXQGDGRUHV 2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV p GHWHUPLQDGR SHOR Q~PHUR HVSHUDGR GH UHSURGXWRUHV FRP SDL H PmH GHVFRQKHFLGRV IXQGDGRUHV TXH FRQWULEXLQGR LJXDOPHQWH FRP PDWHULDO JHQpWLFR SDUD IRUPDU D SRSXODomR UHSUHVHQWDPWRGDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGD/$&<(VWH
SDUkPHWURpFDOFXODGRSRU ൌ ͳ
∑ ଶ ୀଵ
HPTXHpDSUREDELOLGDGHGHRULJHP
GRJHQHGR±௦DQFHVWUDO
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV
2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV p GHWHUPLQDGR SHOR Q~PHUR PtQLPR GH DQFHVWUDLV IXQGDGRUHV RX QmR TXH H[SOLFDP D GLYHUVLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD %2,&+$5' 0$,*1(/ 9(55,(5 (VWH SDUkPHWUR p FDOFXODGR
SRU ൌ ͳ ∑ ଶ ୀଵ
DFRQWULEXLomRPDUJLQDODFRQWULEXLomRJHQpWLFDDGLFLRQDOIHLWDSRUXPDQFHVWUDOTXH QmRIRLH[SOLFDGDSRURXWURDQFHVWUDOHVFROKLGRSDUDRFiOFXORDQWHULRUPHQWH
5D]mRHQWUHRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVHRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGH
DQFHVWUDLV
$ UD]mR HQWUH R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV H R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH
DQFHVWUDLV
SHUPLWH LGHQWLILFDU VH D XWLOL]DomR GH UHSURGXWRUHV SURPRYH
SRVVtYHOHIHLWRGHJDUJDORJHQpWLFR2YDORULJXDORXSUy[LPRDLQGLFDTXHRHIHLWR GH JDUJDOR JHQpWLFR QmR FDUDFWHUL]D D SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD HQTXDQWR TXH YDORUHV PXLWR EDL[RV GH Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV FRPSDUDGR DR Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHVLQGLFDHIHLWRGHJDUJDORJHQpWLFRSDUDDSRSXODomR
3DUkPHWURV SRSXODFLRQDLV UHODFLRQDGRV FRP FRHILFLHQWH GH
HQGRJDPLD
&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLR
2 FRHILFLHQWH GH SDUHQWHVFR PpGLR :5,*+7 p GHILQLGR FRPR D SUREDELOLGDGH GH TXHXPDOHORHVFROKLGRDR DFDVR HQWUH WRGD D SRSXODomR VHMDGH GHWHUPLQDGRDQLPDO1XPHULFDPHQWHRSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRFRUUHVSRQGHDGXDVYH]HV DSUREDELOLGDGHGHGRLVDOHORVDOHDWyULRVXPGRDQLPDOHRXWURGHWRGDSRSXODomR VHUHPLGrQWLFRVSRUGHVFHQGrQFLDHSRGHVHULQWHUSUHWDGRFRPRDUHSUHVHQWDomRGH XP GDGR DQLPDO HP WRGR R SHGLJUHH LQGHSHQGHQWHPHQWH GR FRQKHFLPHQWR GH VHX SUySULRSHGLJUHH'811(5HWDO(VWHSDUkPHWURpFDOFXODGRFRPRDPpGLD GRV FRHILFLHQWHV GD OLQKD FRUUHVSRQGHQWH DR LQGLYtGXR QR QXPHUDGRU GD PDWUL] GH SDUHQWHVFR$ XWLOL]DQGR PpWRGR PRGLILFDGR GHPRQVWUDGR SRU *XWLpUUH] &DxRQ H 5LFR $ PDWUL] GH SDUHQWHVFR GHVWH HVWXGR LQFOXLX DQLPDLV VHQGR PDFKRVHIrPHDV
&RHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD
DOJRULWPRGHVHQYROYLGRSRU0HXZLVVHQH/XR2DXPHQWRGHHQGRJDPLDSRU
JHUDomR IRL FDOFXODGR SRU οൌ ௧െ௧ିଵ
ͳ െ௧ିଵ HP TXH ௧ H ௧ିଵ p D
HQGRJDPLDPpGLDQD±௦H±௦ିଵJHUDomR:5,*+7
7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR
2 WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR R TXDO UHSUHVHQWD R Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV TXHFRQWULEXLQGRLJXDOPHQWHSDUDDSUy[LPDJHUDomRSURPRYHULDRPHVPRDXPHQWR GH HQGRJDPLD REVHUYDGR QD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD :5,*+7 IRL FDOFXODGR
SRUൌ ͳ ʹο
(IHLWRVGDHQGRJDPLDQRGHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFR
3DUD FDGD FRQMXQWR GH GDGRV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH 3 ,33 3$& H ,3 IRUDP REVHUYDGDV DV PpGLDV H YDORUHV PtQLPRV H Pi[LPRV GRV FRHILFLHQWHV GH HQGRJDPLDFDOFXODGRV$UHODomROLQHDUGHFODVVHVGHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDFRP D PpGLD GRV YDORUHV IHQRWtSLFRV SDUD DV PHVPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV IRL YHULILFDGD SRU PHLR GD DQiOLVH GH UHJUHVVmR OLQHDU XWLOL]DQGR R SURJUDPD 6$6 6$6 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH &DU\ 1& 86$ HP TXH D YDULiYHO LQGHSHQGHQWH IRUDP DV FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDHDYDULiYHOGHSHQGHQWHIRLDPpGLDIHQRWtSLFDSDUDFDGD FODVVH$KLSyWHVHGHTXHRFRHILFLHQWHGHUHJUHVVmRIRVVHLJXDOD]HURIRLWHVWDGD XWLOL]DQGRDHVWDWtVWLFDW
DPHWDGR30*57SDUDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRpGHPHVHV$DQiOLVHGHVFULWLYD SDUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHQFRQWUDVHQD7DEHOD
7DEHOD1~PHURGHDQLPDLV1PpGLDGHYDORUHVIHQRWtSLFRVGHVYLRSDGUmR'3 SDUDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVWXGDGDVHPERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXm
&DUDFWHUtVWLFD 1 0pGLD '3
3NJ
,33PHVHV
,30GLDV
,3GLDV
,3GLDV
3$&NJGHEH]HUURYDFDDQR
3 SHVR DR GHVPDPH DMXVWDGR SDUD GLDV GH LGDGH ,33 LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR ,30 LQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVPpGLR,3 SULPHLURLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV,3 VHJXQGRLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV
3$& SURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD
5(68/7$'26(',6&8662
,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH
$ )LJXUD FRQWpP D TXDQWLGDGH GH LQIRUPDomR GH SHGLJUHH SRU JHUDomR VHQGRDSULPHLUDJHUDomRUHSUHVHQWDGDSHORVDQLPDLVPDLVYHOKRVHD~OWLPDSHORV DQLPDLVPDLVMRYHQV2EVHUYRXVHYDULDomRGH[DGHLQIRUPDomRHQWUHD SULPHLUDH~OWLPDJHUDomRHPpGLDGHGHTXDQWLGDGHGHLQIRUPDomRSDUDDV VHLV~OWLPDVJHUDo}HVUHSUHVHQWDGDVSRUDQLPDLVTXHQDVFHUDPHQWUHD *HUDo}HVDQWHULRUHVjVVHLV~OWLPDVJHUDo}HVDSUHVHQWDUDPLQIRUPDomRGHSHGLJUHH LQIHULRUjPpGLDGDVVHLV~OWLPDVJHUDo}HVHYLGHQFLDQGRDHVFDVVH]GHLQIRUPDomR QRSHGLJUHHGRVDQLPDLVPDLVDQWLJRV2VUHJLVWURVJHQHDOyJLFRVGHDQLPDLVFRPR WLSR7DEDSXmLQLFLDUDPVHHPSRVVtYHOPRWLYRSHODDXVrQFLDGHLQIRUPDo}HV GH DQLPDLV QDVFLGRV DQWHULRUPHQWH D HVWD GDWD 6$17,$*2 &DLUHV HW DO HVWXGDUDPDQLPDLVGDPHVPDUDoDHWDPEpPHQFRQWUDUDPQ~PHURUHGX]LGR GHUHJLVWURVGHSHGLJUHHQDVJHUDo}HVPDLVDQWLJDV
UHVXOWDGRV SHUPLWH LGHQWLILFDU D LQWHJULGDGH GDV LQIRUPDo}HV QR SHGLJUHH 3DUD D SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD REVHUYRXVH JUDQGH GLIHUHQoD GR PDLRU Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV FRPSOHWDV H Pi[LPDV DVVLP REVHUYDVH DXVrQFLD GH LQIRUPDo}HV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV IDWR FRQILUPDGR SHOR EDL[R YDORU Pi[LPR GH JHUDo}HV HTXLYDOHQWHV 6DQWDQD -U HW DO H 'DQFKLQ%XUJH HW DO HVWXGDUDP SRSXODo}HV GH ERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHHERYLQRVGHOHLWHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHHVXJHULUDPTXHDIDOWD GHLQIRUPDomRQRSHGLJUHHSRGHFDXVDUVXEHVWLPDomRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD FDOFXODGR SDUD RV DQLPDLV PDLV DQWLJRV DVVLP FRPR D PpGLD GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLDSDUDWRGDSRSXODomR
)LJXUD,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHHDRORQJRGHJHUDo}HVREWLGDVSHORFiOFXORGH
JHUDomRPi[LPDSDUDDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGDGHERYLQRV7DEDSXm
1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV
$SRSXODomRHVWXGDGDDSUHVHQWRXQRWRWDOUHSURGXWRUHVFRPSDLHPmH GHVFRQKHFLGRVIXQGDGRUHVVHQGRPDFKRVHIrPHDV$FRQWULEXLomRGRV IXQGDGRUHV SDUD D YDULDELOLGDGH GD SRSXODomR YDULRX GH D 2EVHUYRXVH TXH D PDLRU FRQWULEXLomR FRPR IXQGDGRU SDUD D YDULDELOLGDGH GD SRSXODomR IRL GH XP PDFKR 'HQWUH DV IrPHDV IRL D PDLRU FRQWULEXLomR REVHUYDGD$GLIHUHQoDHQWUHDVFRQWULEXLo}HVSRGHVHUGHYLGRDLQWHQVLYDXWLOL]DomR GHSRXFRVPDFKRVSDUDDUHSURGXomRHGHYLGRDDPSOLWXGHREVHUYDGDQDGDWDGH
Ϭ Ϭ͕ϭ Ϭ͕Ϯ Ϭ͕ϯ Ϭ͕ϰ Ϭ͕ϱ Ϭ͕ϲ Ϭ͕ϳ Ϭ͕ϴ Ϭ͕ϵ
ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ ϵ ϭϬ ϭϭ ϭϮ ϭϯ ϭϰ ϭϱ ϭϲ
,Q
WH
J
UL
G
D
G
H
G
H
S
H
G
LJ
UH
H
QDVFLPHQWRGRVIXQGDGRUHVTXHYDULRXGHDXPDYH]TXHRVDQLPDLV QDVFLGRVDWpFRQWULEXtUDPFRP3HL[RWRHWDOLGHQWLILFDUDPTXH DPDLRUFRQWULEXLomRSDUDDYDULDELOLGDGHGDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRVGDUDoD*X]HUi WDPEpPIRLGHXPPDFKRGHFRQWULEXLomR
2Q~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVIRLLJXDODHDHQGRJDPLDHVSHUDGDSDUD D SRSXODomR FRQVLGHUDQGR DSHQDV D FRQWULEXLomR GHVEDODQFHDGD GRV IXQGDGRUHV VHPDDWXDomRGHSURFHVVRVGHVHOHomRIRLLJXDOD2Q~PHURUHGX]LGRGH IXQGDGRUHVPDFKRVTXDQGRFRPSDUDGRDRGHIrPHDVHYLGHQFLRXLQWHQVDXWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV IDWR FRQILUPDGR DR REVHUYDU TXH R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV IRL PXLWR PHQRU TXDQGR FRPSDUDGR FRP R Q~PHUR WRWDO GH UHSURGXWRUHV FRP SDL H PmH GHVFRQKHFLGRV IXQGDGRUHV VHQGR SRXFRV DQLPDLVUHVSRQViYHLVSRUWRGDDYDULDELOLGDGHGDSRSXODomR
2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV REWLGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR HVWi HQWUH RV YDORUHVREVHUYDGRVSRU9HUFHVL)LOKRHWDODHPHVWXGRFRPDQLPDLVGDUDoD 7DEDSXm HP TXDWUR GLIHUHQWHV SHUtRGRV GH GXUDomR GH DQRV FDGD TXHYDULRXGHDIXQGDGRUHVHIHWLYRV&DLUHVHWDOREWLYHUDPYDORUGH IXQGDGRUHV HIHWLYRV SDUD ERYLQRV GD PHVPD UDoD (VWHV DXWRUHV REVHUYDUDP HQGRJDPLD HVSHUDGD LJXDO D SHOD XWLOL]DomR GHVEDODQFHDGD GH IXQGDGRUHV (VWH YDORU IRL LQIHULRU DR REWLGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR 1~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHVREVHUYDGRVSDUDDVUDoDV,QGXEUDVLO*LUH1HORUHIRUDPVXSHULRUHVDR GHVWHWUDEDOKRYDULDQGRGHDGHHGHDDQLPDLVSDUDDVWUrV UDoDV UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 9(5&(6, ),/+2 HW DO E 0$/+$'2 HW DO %5,72HWDO$VGLIHUHQoDVHQWUHHVWHVYDORUHVHQFRQWUDGRVQDOLWHUDWXUDHR GR SUHVHQWH WUDEDOKR SRGHP VHU RFDVLRQDGDV SHOD UHFHQWH IRUPDomR GD UDoD 7DEDSXm
1~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV H UD]mR HQWUH R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH
IXQGDGRUHVHRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV
DQFHVWUDLV
LJXDODTXHLQGLFRXTXHDYDULDELOLGDGHGHVWDSRSXODomRQmR
IRLLQIOXHQFLDGDSHORHIHLWRGHJDUJDORJHQpWLFRRTXDOWDPEpPQmRIRLLGHQWLILFDGR SRU9HUFHVL)LOKRDSDUDXPDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRVGDPHVPDUDoD3HL[RWR HW DO UHODWDUDP UD]mR GH SDUD XPD SRSXODomR GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD *X]HUi TXH DSUHVHQWRX PDLRU Q~PHUR GH IXQGDGRUHV TXDQGR FRPSDUDGR DR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR SRGHQGR FRQFOXLU SRVVtYHO SUHVHQoD GH JDUJDOR JHQpWLFR FDUDFWHUL]DQGRHVWDSRSXODomR
3DUkPHWURV SRSXODFLRQDLV UHODFLRQDGRV FRP FRHILFLHQWH GH
HQGRJDPLD
2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDPpGLRSDUDDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGDIRLGHH VXDYDULDomRGHDFRUGRFRPDGDWDGHQDVFLPHQWRGRVDQLPDLVHVWiUHSUHVHQWDGDQD )LJXUD2DXPHQWRGDHQGRJDPLDSRUJHUDomRFRPSOHWDIRLGHSRUJHUDomR Pi[LPD IRL GH H SRU JHUDomR HTXLYDOHQWH GH 2 FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR REVHUYDGR QmR p DOWR H IRL LQIHULRU DR GH SRSXODo}HV GDV UDoDV 1HORUH *LU H *X]HUi HVWXGDGDV SRU )DULD HW DO $ IDOWD GH LQIRUPDomR QR SHGLJUHH SRGH WHU LQIOXHQFLDGR QR YDORU REWLGR FRPR Mi REVHUYDGR SRU %RLFKDUG 0DLJQHO H 9HUULHU TXH DILUPDUDP TXH PHVPR FRP XPD SURSRUomR PXLWR SHTXHQD GH SHGLJUHH GHVFRQKHFLGR R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD SRGH VHU VXEHVWLPDGR $OpP GLVVR DOJXQV PpWRGRV GH VHOHomR TXH IDYRUHFHP LQGLYtGXRV DSDUHQWDGRV SDUD VHUHP UHSURGXWRUHV GD SUy[LPD JHUDomR H WpFQLFDV FRPR LQVHPLQDomR DUWLILFLDO TXH SRGHP IDYRUHFHU LQWHQVLYD XWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV VmR XWLOL]DGDV D PDLV WHPSR SDUD UDoDV FRPR 1HORUH *LU H *X]HUi FRPSDUDGD D UDoD 7DEDSXm IDYRUHFHQGR R DXPHQWR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD SDUDHVWDVUDoDVGHIRUPDomRPDLVDQWLJD
)LJXUD0pGLDGHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDSRUDQRGHQDVFLPHQWRGHERYLQRVGD
UDoD7DEDSXm
2VDQLPDLVFRPDQRGHQDVFLPHQWRPDLVDQWLJRQmRSRVVXtDPLQIRUPDomRGH SHGLJUHH VXILFLHQWH SDUD FDOFXODU R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD VHQGR TXH VRPHQWH DQLPDLVTXHQDVFHUDPDSDUWLUGHSRVVXtDPDOJXPDLQIRUPDomRREVHUYDGRQD LQWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDDXPHQWRXDSDUWLUGHDQR HP TXH KRXYH R UHFRQKHFLPHQWR RILFLDO GD UDoD 7DEDSXm SRVVLYHOPHQWH SURPRYHQGR PDLRU GLVVHPLQDomR GD FULDomR GD UDoD SHORV SURGXWRUHV TXH YDORUL]DYDPUHSURGXWRUHVYHQFHGRUHVHPH[SRVLo}HV
2FRHILFLHQWHPpGLRGHHQGRJDPLDDSRUFHQWDJHPGHDQLPDLVHQGRJkPLFRV R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD SDUD RV DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV R WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR H R SDUHQWHVFR PpGLR SRU JHUDomR HVWmR GHPRQVWUDGRV QD 7DEHOD 7RUQDVHHYLGHQWHRDXPHQWRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRDR ORQJRGDVJHUDo}HVDVVLPFRPRRDXPHQWRGHDQLPDLVHQGRJkPLFRVQDSRSXODomR TXHSRGHPVHUFRQVHTXrQFLDGDGLVVHPLQDomRGDUDoDHQWUHRVSURGXWRUHVVRPDGD DLQFOXVmRDRORQJRGDVJHUDo}HVGHXWLOL]DomRGHSRXFRVUHSURGXWRUHVHPFHQWUDLV GH LQVHPLQDomR DUWLILFLDO 2 DXPHQWR GD HQGRJDPLD DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV Mi IRL UHODWDGRSDUDGLIHUHQWHVUDoDV$/$7,<$7)$5,$HWDO5(,6),/+2HW DO 3(,;272 HW DO HP RXWURV HVWXGRV H SDUD D UDoD 7DEDSXm 9(5&(6, ),/+2 HW DO &$,5(6 HW DO FRP YDORUHV VHPHOKDQWHV GH FRHILFLHQWHVGHHQGRJDPLDDRVREWLGRVQRSUHVHQWHHVWXGR
Ϭ Ϭ͕ϬϬϮ Ϭ͕ϬϬϰ Ϭ͕ϬϬϲ Ϭ͕ϬϬϴ Ϭ͕Ϭϭ Ϭ͕ϬϭϮ Ϭ͕Ϭϭϰ
&
R
H
IL
F
LH
Q
WH
G
H
H
Q
G
R
J
D
P
LD
P
p
G
LR
7DEHOD1~PHURGHDQLPDLVSRUJHUDomR1FRHILFLHQWHPpGLRGHHQGRJDPLD) SRUFHQWDJHP GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR QRVDQLPDLVHQGRJkPLFRVHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLR$5SRUJHUDomRFRPSOHWD SDUDDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRV7DEDSXm
*HUDomR
FRPSOHWD 1 )
$QLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV
)PpGLRGRV
HQGRJkPLFRV $5
(PERUD WHQKD DXPHQWDGR D TXDQWLGDGH GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV KRXYH UHGXomR QD HQGRJDPLD GHVWHV DQLPDLV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV LQGLFDQGR FRQWUROH GRVSURGXWRUHVDRDFDVDODUDQLPDLVDSDUHQWDGRV2WDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR FDOFXODGRSDUDJHUDomRFRPSOHWDIRLLJXDODSDUDDJHUDomRRVFLORXDRORQJR GDVJHUDo}HVHIRLLJXDOSDUDDJHUDomR$)$2FRQVLGHUDQtYHOFUtWLFR SDUD D SRSXODomR XP WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR LQIHULRU D DQLPDLV SRU JHUDomR2YDORUREVHUYDGRSDUDD~OWLPDJHUDomRIRLVXSHULRUDHVWHYDORUFUtWLFR QR HQWDQWR HQFRQWUDVH SUy[LPR H SRGH DWLQJLOR IXWXUDPHQWH XPD YH] TXH Ki RVFLODomR GHVWH SDUkPHWUR DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV 2 YDORU PtQLPR FDOFXODGR HQFRQWUDVHHQWUHRVREWLGRVSRU9HUFHVL)LOKRHWDODGHDHRPi[LPR HVWiSUy[LPRDRPi[LPRREVHUYDGRSRU&DLUHVHWDOGHDQLPDLVSDUDD PHVPDUDoD'HVVDPDQHLUDRVSURGXWRUHVHSURJUDPDVGHPHOKRUDPHQWRGHYHP FRQGHQDU D LQWHQVD XWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV H LQFHQWLYDU D LQWURGXomR GH UHSURGXWRUHV QmR PXLWR XWLOL]DGRV QD SRSXODomR SDUD HYLWDU D UHGXomR GD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDQRVERYLQRV7DEDSXm
UHSUHVHQWDomR GH DQLPDLV DOWDPHQWH HQGRJkPLFRV SRGHP WHU RFDVLRQDGR D DXVrQFLDGHLQIOXrQFLDGDHQGRJDPLDVREUH3
(VWXGRV FRP DV UDoDV 7DEDSXm 3(11$ *LU 48(,52= $/%848(548( /$1=21, $OHQWHMDQD &$52/,12 *$0$ 0DUFKLJLDQD H %RQVPDUD 6$17$1$ -5 HW DO LGHQWLILFDUDP HIHLWR GH HQGRJDPLD VLJQLILFDWLYR OLQHDU RX TXDGUiWLFR SDUD SHVR DR GHVPDPH S 1R HQWDQWR RV DXWRUHV REWLYHUDP PpGLDV GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD VXSHULRUHV DR REVHUYDGR QHVWH HVWXGR 6DQWDQD -U HVWXGDQGR D UDoD 1HORUH WDPEpP LGHQWLILFDUDPHIHLWRGDYDULDomRGHHQGRJDPLDVREUHRSHVRDRGHVPDPHHHPERUD R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR REVHUYDGR WHQKD VLGR SUy[LPR DR REWLGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR R Pi[LPR DOFDQoDGR IRL VXSHULRU FRQWHQGR DQLPDLV FRP FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDVXSHULRUD
$PpGLDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDIRLLJXDODFRPYDULDomRGH DSDUD,33HLJXDODFRPYDULDomRGHDSDUD,30,3H,3$ DQiOLVHGDHVWDWtVWLFDWIRLQmRVLJQLILFDWLYDSDUDRFRHILFLHQWHGHUHJUHVVmRSDUD,33 S ,30S ,3S H,3S HLQGLFRXDXVrQFLDGHLQIOXrQFLD GR HIHLWR GH HQGRJDPLD QR GHVHPSHQKR IHQRWtSLFR SDUD HVWDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV $ DXVrQFLD GHVWD LQIOXrQFLD SRGH VHU MXVWLILFDGD SHOR IDWR GD HQGRJDPLD DLQGD QmR HVWDU IRUWHPHQWH HVWDEHOHFLGD GHQWUH RV DQLPDLV GD UDoD YHULILFDGR SHOR EDL[R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR $V GLVWULEXLo}HV GRV YDORUHV IHQRWtSLFRV GH ,33 ,30,3H,3FRQIRUPHFODVVHVGHFRHILFLHQWHVGHHQGRJDPLDHVWmRGHPRQVWUDGDV QD)LJXUD%)LJXUD&)LJXUD'H)LJXUD(UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
YHULILFDUDP TXH PHVPR VRE DOWRV tQGLFHV GH HQGRJDPLD DV DOWHUDo}HV QR GHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFRSRGHPVHUSHTXHQDV
$PpGLDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDSDUD3$&IRLLJXDODFRP YDULDomRHQWUHH$DQiOLVHGDHVWDWtVWLFDWIRLQmRVLJQLILFDWLYDS SDUDR FRHILFLHQWH GH UHJUHVVmR H LQGLFRX DXVrQFLD GH LQIOXrQFLD GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH R GHVHPSHQKR GD 3$& $ GLVWULEXLomR GDV PpGLDV IHQRWtSLFDV VREUH FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDHVWiQD)LJXUD)
2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDPpGLRREVHUYDGRSDUD3$&IRLEDL[RHHPERUD QmR WHQKD VLGR WHVWDGD D LQIOXrQFLD GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD GD PmH VREUH R 3GRDQLPDORHIHLWRGDHQGRJDPLDVREUHRQ~PHURGHEH]HUURVSURGX]LGRVRX LGDGH GD YDFD DR ~OWLPR SDUWR TXH VmR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV TXH FRPS}H WDO tQGLFH D HVWDWtVWLFD W SDUD R FRHILFLHQWH GH UHJUHVVmR VXJHUH DXVrQFLD GH LQIOXrQFLD GD HQGRJDPLDSDUDHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVTXDQGRFRPELQDGDVSDUDDIRUPDomRGD3$& 1R HQWDQWR DQiOLVHV SDUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV VHSDUDGDPHQWH SRGHP DSUHVHQWDU HIHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD FRPR UHODWDGR SRU &DUROLQR H *DPD TXH YHULILFDUDP JUDQGH LQIOXrQFLD SDUD WRWDO GH EH]HUURV SURGX]LGRV DR ORQJR GD YLGD GR DQLPDO VHQGR D GHSUHVVmR HQGRJkPLFD SDUD HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD PDLV H[SUHVVLYD GR TXH SDUD,33
2DXPHQWRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDDRORQJRGDVJHUDo}HVUHVXOWRXGR DXPHQWR QR Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV H QmR SHOR DXPHQWR QD PpGLD GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD HQWUH RV DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV 7DEHOD (VWH IDWRU FRODERURX SDUD D DXVrQFLD GH GHSUHVVmR HQGRJkPLFD SDUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HVWXGDGDV XPD YH] TXH RV tQGLFHV PpGLRV GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD IRUDP EDL[RV KDYHQGRPXLWRV DQLPDLV FRP SHTXHQR FRHILFLHQWHGH HQGRJDPLDH SRXFRV DQLPDLVFRPFRHILFLHQWHPDLVHOHYDGR
&21&/862