• Nenhum resultado encontrado

Análise de pedigree e estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para características de importância econômica em bovinos Tabapuã

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2017

Share "Análise de pedigree e estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para características de importância econômica em bovinos Tabapuã"

Copied!
88
0
0

Texto

(1)

81,9(56,'$'((67$'8$/3$8/,67$81(63

&Æ0386'(-$%27,&$%$/

$1È/,6('(3(',*5((((67,0$7,9$6'(

3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(

,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0%29,1267$%$38­

3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV

0pGLFD9HWHULQiULD

(2)

81,9(56,'$'((67$'8$/3$8/,67$81(63

&Æ0386'(-$%27,&$%$/

$1È/,6('(3(',*5((((67,0$7,9$6'(

3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(

,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0%29,1267$%$38­

3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV

2ULHQWDGRU3URI'U'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDUL

&RRULHQWDGRU'UD'DQLHODGR$PDUDO*URVVL

'U5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL6DYHJQDJR

'LVVHUWDomR DSUHVHQWDGD j )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLDV $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV ± 81(63 &kPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDO FRPR SDUWH GDV H[LJrQFLDV SDUD REWHQomR GR WtWXOR GH 0HVWUH HP*HQpWLFDH0HOKRUDPHQWR$QLPDO

(3)

%HUQDUGHV3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL

%D $QiOLVHGHSHGLJUHHHHVWLPDWLYDVGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLPSRUWkQFLDHFRQ{PLFDHPERYLQRV7DEDSXm 3ULVFLOD$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV±±-DERWLFDEDO

YLSLOFP

'LVVHUWDomRPHVWUDGR8QLYHUVLGDGH(VWDGXDO3DXOLVWD )DFXOGDGHGH&LrQFLDV$JUiULDVH9HWHULQiULDV

2ULHQWDGRU'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDUL

&RRULHQWDGRUHV'DQLHODGR$PDUDO*URVVL5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL 6DYHJQDJR

%DQFDH[DPLQDGRUD5LFDUGRGD)RQVHFD&LQWLD5LJKHWWL 0DUFRQGHV

%LEOLRJUDILD

%RYLQRVGHFRUWH(VWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDO+HUGDELOLGDGH, 7tWXOR,,-DERWLFDEDO)DFXOGDGHGH&LrQFLDV$JUiULDVH9HWHULQiULDV

&'8

)LFKD FDWDORJUiILFD HODERUDGD SHOD 6HomR 7pFQLFD GH $TXLVLomR H 7UDWDPHQWR GD ,QIRUPDomR ± 6HUYLoR 7pFQLFR GH %LEOLRWHFD H 'RFXPHQWDomR 81(63 &kPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDO

(4)
(5)

'$'26&855,&8/$5(6'2$8725

35,6&,/$$55,*8&&,%(51$5'(6±QDVFLGDHPGHMXOKRGHQD FLGDGH GH 6mR -RmR GD %RD 9LVWD 6mR 3DXOR ILOKD GH *LOEHUWR GH $]HYHGR %HUQDUGHVH/XFLDQDGH&DUYDOKR$UULJXFFL%HUQDUGHV,QLFLRXRFXUVRGH0HGLFLQD 9HWHULQiULD QD )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLD $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV 81(63 &DPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDOHPPDUoRGH)RLEROVLVWD)$3(63GHLQLFLDomRFLHQWtILFDHP HREWHYHRWtWXORGH0pGLFD9HWHULQiULDHP(PDJRVWRGHLQJUHVVRXQR FXUVRGHPHVWUDGRSHOR3URJUDPDGH3yV*UDGXDomRHP*HQpWLFDH0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO QD )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLD $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV 81(63 &DPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDOVRERULHQWDomRGR3URI'U'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDULHFRRULHQWDomRGD'U 'DQLHODGR$PDUDO*URVVLHGR'U5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL6DYHJQDJR)RLEROVLVWD&13T GHPHVWUDGRSHORSHUtRGRGHDJRVWRGHDMXOKRGHHEROVLVWD)$3(63GH PHVWUDGRSHORSHUtRGRGHDJRVWRGHDMXOKRGH

(6)

7HQGRDPRUHVD~GHGDYLGDQmRUHFODPR (XDPRDYLGDTXHOHYROHYRDYLGDTXHDPR 7LmR&DUUHLUR

(7)

(8)

$*5$'(&,0(1726

3ULPHLUDPHQWH JRVWDULD GH DJUDGHFHU D 'HXV SRU PH DFRPSDQKDU HP WRGRV RVPRPHQWRVHPHGDUIRUoDVSDUDVHPSUHVHJXLUHPIUHQWH

$RV PHXV SDLV /XFLDQD H *LOEHUWR SRU VHPSUH PH DSRLDUHP QDV PLQKDV GHFLV}HVPHGDUHPDRSRUWXQLGDGHGHREWHUHVWHWtWXORHPHHQVLQDUHPDHQ[HUJDU RODGRERPGHWRGRVRVGHVDILRVTXHDYLGDQRVWUD]$RVPHXVLUPmRVSRUID]HUHP SDUWH GH PHX FUHVFLPHQWR H DPDGXUHFLPHQWR HVWDQGR VHPSUH GLVSRVWRV D DMXGDU $RVPHXVTXHULGRVDYyV0iUFLDH$QWHQRUSRUWRGDDGHGLFDomRHPPLQKDFULDomRH RDSRLRDRORQJRGRVPHXVHVWXGRV¬PLQKDTXHULGDDYy0DUO\SRUWRGRVRVVHXV PLPRVHVHUPHXH[HPSORGHYLGDHGHGLFDomR$RPHXDY{7DEDMDUDTXHMiQmR HVWiPDLVDTXL2EULJDGDSRUWRGDVDVOLo}HVHLQVSLUDomRTXHRVHQKRUPHGHX¬ PLQKD SULPD &DUROLQD PLQKD VHJXQGD LUPm TXH DSHVDU GH ORQJH VHPSUH PH DFRPSDQKDHPHDMXGD(QILPDWRGDDPLQKDIDPtOLDTXHFRODERURXFDGDXPDVXD PDQHLUDSDUDKRMHHXVHUTXHPVRX

$R PHX DPRU (OLpGHU SRU VHU PHX DPLJR H FRPSDQKHLUR SRU WHU PXLWD SDFLrQFLDHPHDSRLDUHPWRGDVDVKRUDVSRUPHLQVSLUDUHGDUIRUoDVSDUDVHPSUH FRQWLQXDUHSULQFLSDOPHQWHSRUWRGRVRVPRPHQWRVIHOL]HVTXHYRFrPHSURSRUFLRQD

*RVWDULDGHDJUDGHFHUDWRGRVPHXVDPLJRVGH6mR-RmRGD%RD9LVWD$QD /LD$QD/XL]D%UXQD&DFDLQKR'X*DEL*XL-RUJH.DNi1HWR0i0DUFLOLR6\ 7DOLWKD9r9LFWRUTXHPHVXSRUWDUDPSRUWDQWRWHPSRHPHDMXGDUDPDIRUPDUD SHVVRDTXHKRMHVRXFRPFHUWH]DVmRDVSHVVRDVTXHFRQVLGHURGDPLQKDIDPtOLDH VmRDVTXHHXHVFROKLSDUDVHPSUHWHUDRPHXODGR

(9)

HVWXGRV WRGDV DV IHVWDV H SULQFLSDOPHQWH SRU ID]HUHP SDUWH GR PHX FUHVFLPHQWR SHVVRDO ¬V DWXDLV PRUDGRUDV TXH QmR FRQYLYL PDV TXH PXLWR HVWLPR *XDUL 'X 3DOPLULQKD *DUUDILQKD =XEDH 0HL SRU PHFRQVLGHUDUHPGDIDPtOLD DQWHV PHVPR GHPHFRQKHFHUHPHSRUPHUHFHEHUHPVHPSUHGHEUDoRVHVRUULVRVDEHUWRV $RV PHXV DPLJRV GH HTXLSH 7DWL -DTXH ,VPDHO 7KLDJR *XLOKHUPH 1DVFLPHQWR6DOYDGRU*LRYDQD6DEULQD'LHJR1LFROH*XLOKHUPH9HQWXULQL1DWDOLD H %LD SRU WHUHP PH UHFHELGR GH EUDoRV DEHUWRV H SRU WRGD DMXGD TXH PH GHUDP 6HPYRFrVHVWHWUDEDOKRQmRVHULDRPHVPR

$RVIXQFLRQiULRVGR'HSDUWDPHQWRGH([DWDV$GULDQD=H]p6KLUOH\1RULYDO H DRV IXQFLRQiULRV GD SyVJUDGXDomR SHOD FRODERUDomR H SRU SURSRUFLRQDU R DPELHQWHGHWUDEDOKRRPHOKRUSRVVtYHO

$$1&3DRSURIHVVRU5D\VLOGR%DUERVD/{ERHWRGDDHTXLSHSRUFHGHUHP GDGRVSDUDTXHIRVVHSRVVtYHODUHDOL]DomRGHVWHWUDEDOKR

$RV PHPEURV GD EDQFD GH TXDOLILFDomR 'U 0DUFRV (OL %X]DQVNDV H 'UD 9DOGHF\$SDUHFLGD5RFKDGD&UX]SHORWHPSRGLVSHQGLGRFRQVLGHUDo}HVUHDOL]DGDV SDUDPHOKRULDGRSUHVHQWHWUDEDOKRHSULQFLSDOPHQWHSHODDPL]DGH

$RV PHPEURV GD EDQFD GH GHIHVD GD GLVVHUWDomR 3URI 'U 5LFDUGR GD )RQVHFDH'UD&LQWLD5LJKHWWL0DUFRQGHVSHODSDFLrQFLDFRODERUDomRHVXJHVW}HV $RV PHXV FRRULHQWDGRUHV H DPLJRV 'UD 'DQLHOD GR $PDUDO *URVVL H 'U 5RGULJR3HOLFLRQL6DYHJQDJRSRUWRGRRDSRLRSDFLrQFLDRULHQWDomRHVXJHVWmR $WRGRVRVSURIHVVRUHVTXHWLYHGHVGHRLQtFLRGHPLQKDHGXFDomRDWpPLQKD IRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDOSRUWHUHPGHGLFDGRWHPSRSDUDPLQKDIRUPDomR$R3URI'U -RVp-XUDQGLU)DJOLDULSRUWHUPHDFHLWDGRFRPRHVWDJLiULDHHVWXGDQWHGHLQLFLDomR PHDSUHVHQWDQGRDiUHDDFDGrPLFDHQVLQDQGRRULHQWDQGRHPHLQFHQWLYDQGR (PHVSHFLDODR3URI'U'DQtVLR3UDGR0XQDULSRUPHUHFHEHUFRPRDOXQDH RULHQWDGD WHQGR PXLWD SDFLrQFLD H GHGLFDomR SRU WRGRV RV HQVLQDPHQWRV H FRQVHOKRVHSRUWRGDDFRODERUDomRSDUDDPLQKDIRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDOHSHVVRDO ¬ )&$981(63 -DERWLFDEDO SRU SURSRUFLRQDU H[FHOHQWH DPELHQWH SDUD IRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDO¬&13TSHODEROVDGHHVWXGRVFRQFHGLGDSRUDQRSDUDHVWH HVWXGR3URFHVVR¬)$3(63SRUFRQFHGHUXPDEROVDGHHVWXGRV SRUDQRSDUDDUHDOL]DomRGRSUHVHQWHWUDEDOKR3URFHVVR

(10)

L

680È5,2

3iJLQD

5(6802 ,9

$%675$&79,

&$3Ë78/2&216,'(5$d®(6*(5$,6

,1752'8d­2

(6758785$'$',66(57$d­2

5(9,6­2'(/,7(5$785$

(6758785$'$3238/$d­2

,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH

7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV

&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD

&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(,17(5(66((&21Ð0,&23$5$5$d$7$%$38­

3HVRDRGHVPDPH

,GDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR

,QWHUYDORGHSDUWRV

3URGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD

5()(5Ç1&,$6

&$3Ë78/2±(6758785$3238/$&,21$/'$5$d$7$%$38­

87,/,=$1'2$1È/,6('(3(',*5((

5(6802

,1752'8d­2

0$7(5,$/(0e72'26

'(6&5,d­2'2&21-8172'('$'26

,17(*5,'$'('(3(',*5((

(11)

LL

1Ò0(52()(7,92'($1&(675$,6

5$=­2(175(21Ò0(52()(7,92'()81'$'25(6(21Ò0(52()(7,92'(

$1&(675$,6

3$5Æ0(75263238/$&,21$,65(/$&,21$'26&20&2(),&,(17('(

(1'2*$0,$

&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLR

&RHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD

7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR

(IHLWRVGDHQGRJDPLDQRGHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFR

5(68/7$'26(',6&866­2

,17(*5,'$'('(3(',*5((

1Ò0(52()(7,92'()81'$'25(6

1Ò0(52()(7,92'($1&(675$,6(5$=­2(175(21Ò0(52()(7,92'(

)81'$'25(6(21Ò0(52()(7,92'($1&(675$,6

3$5Æ0(75263238/$&,21$,65(/$&,21$'26&20&2(),&,(17('((1'2*$0,$

&21&/86­2

5()(5Ç1&,$6

&$3Ë78/2±(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&26(7(1'Ç1&,$6 *(1e7,&$63$5$&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0

%29,1267$%$38­

5(6802

,1752'8d­2

0$7(5,$/(0e72'26

'(6&5,d­2'26'$'26

25*$1,=$d­2(&21752/('(48$/,'$'('265(*,67526)(127Ë3,&26

(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&26

7(67('(5$=­2'(9(5266,0,/+$1d$

(),&,Ç1&,$5(/$7,9$'(6(/(d­2

(12)

LLL

5(68/7$'26(',6&866­2

'(6&5,d­2'26'$'26

(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&26

(),&,Ç1&,$5(/$7,9$'(6(/(d­2

7(1'Ç1&,$6*(1e7,&$6

&21&/86®(6

5()(5Ç1&,$6

&$3Ë78/2,03/,&$d®(6*(5$,6

$3Ç1',&(6

$3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&( $3Ç1',&(

$3Ç1',&(

(13)

LY

$1È/,6('(3(',*5((((67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$ &$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(,03257Æ1&,$(&21Ð0,&$(0%29,1267$%$38­

(14)

Y

“HQWUH,30,3$WHQGrQFLDJHQpWLFDIRLVLJQLILFDWLYDSHIDYRUiYHO SDUDRHIHLWRJHQpWLFRPDWHUQRGH3VLJQLILFDWLYDSHIDYRUiYHOSDUD,3H VLJQLILFDWLYD S H GHVIDYRUiYHO SDUD ,33 ,30 H 3$& $V HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH H FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HYLGHQFLDUDP D LPSRUWkQFLD QD LQFOXVmR GH 3 ,33 H 3$& QD VHOHomR HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR VHQGR DV GXDV~OWLPDVIDYRUiYHLVDRGHVHPSHQKRGHLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV2EVHUYRXVHSHODV WHQGrQFLDVJHQpWLFDVJDQKRVJHQpWLFRVSHTXHQRVHGHVIDYRUiYHLVSDUD,33,30H 3$&PHGLDQWHjUHFHQWHLPSOHPHQWDomRGHSURJUDPDGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFRGD UDoD

3DODYUDVFKDYH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHSURGXWLYDV HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDOKHUGDELOLGDGHSHVRDRGHVPDPH

(15)

YL

3(',*5(($1$/<6,6$1'*(1(7,&3$5$0(7(56(67,0$7(6)25 (&2120,&,03257$1775$,76,17$%$38­&$77/(

$%675$&7±7DEDSXmLVDUXVWLFEHHIFDWWOHEUHHGWKDWLVKLJKO\DGDSWHGWR WURSLFDO HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV 'XH 7DEDSXm UHFHQW RULJLQ WKHUH DUH RQO\ D IHZ VWXGLHVDERXWSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHDQGJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUV7KXVWKLVVWXG\KDGWZR PDLQREMHFWLYHV7KHILUVWZDVWRHYDOXDWHWKHSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHDQGUHODWLRQVKLSRI LQEUHHGLQJFRHIILFLHQWDQGWKHSKHQRW\SHRIZHDQLQJZHLJKWDGMXVWHGDWGD\VRI DJH:DJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJ$)&DYHUDJHRIFDOYLQJLQWHUYDO$&,ILUVWFDOYLQJ LQWHUYDO&,VHFRQGFDOYLQJLQWHUYDO&,DQGDFFXPXODWHGSURGXFWLYLW\$&37KH VHFRQGZDVWRHVWLPDWHJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVJHQHWLFWUHQGVDQGUHODWLYHHIILFLHQF\RI VHOHFWLRQ IRU : $)& $&, &, DQG $&3 LQ 7DEDSXm EHHI FDWWOH :H XVHG SHGLJUHHLQIRUPDWLRQRIDQLPDOVDQGSKHQRW\SLFLQIRUPDWLRQRI7DEDSXm FRZV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH %UD]LOLDQ 7DEDSXm %UHHGLQJ 3URJUDP $QDO\VLV RI SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH ZDV SHUIRUPHG XVLQJ (1'2* VRIWZDUH (VWLPDWHV RI JHQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV ZHUHREWDLQHGE\UHVWULFWHGPD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGPHWKRGILWWLQJDPXOWLSOHWUDLWDQLPDO PRGHO 7KH OLNHOLKRRG UDWLR WHVW ZDV XVHG WR GHILQH WKH UDQGRP HIIHFWV IRU : DQDO\VLV)RU:WKHPDWHUQDOJHQHWLFSHUPDQHQWHQYLURQPHQWDODGGLWLYHJHQHWLF DQG UHVLGXDO HIIHFWV ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ PRGHO ZKLOH RQO\ WKH DGGLWLYH JHQHWLF DQG UHVLGXDO HIIHFWV ZHUH LQFOXGHG IRU $)& $&, &, DQG $&3 *HQHWLF WUHQGV ZHUH FDOFXODWHGIURPDOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQRISUHGLFWHGEUHHGLQJYDOXHRQELUWK\HDU$YHUDJH SHGLJUHHFRPSOHWHQHVVZDVIRUODVWJHQHUDWLRQV&RPSOHWHPD[LPXPDQG HTXLYDOHQW JHQHUDWLRQV ZHUH DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ (IIHFWLYH QXPEHU RI IRXQGHUV DQG DQFHVWRUV ZDV HTXDO WR DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG WKH UDWLR EHWZHHQERWKZDV7KHDYHUDJHLQEUHHGLQJFRHIILFLHQWZDVHTXDOWR7KH DYHUDJH LQEUHHGLQJ FRHIILFLHQW DV ZHOO DV WKH DYHUDJH UHODWHGQHVV DQG WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI QXPEHU RI LQEUHG DQLPDOV LQFUHDVHG DFURVV JHQHUDWLRQ +RZHYHU LW ZDVREVHUYHGDGHFUHDVHLQDYHUDJHLQEUHHGLQJFRHIILFLHQWDFURVVJHQHUDWLRQVZKHQ FRQVLGHULQJRQO\LQEUHGDQLPDOV7KHHIIHFWLYHSRSXODWLRQVL]HDWWKHODVWJHQHUDWLRQ ZDVVPDOO7KHOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQRISKHQRW\SHVRQWKHLQEUHHGLQJFRHIILFLHQW ZDV VLJQLILFDQW S IRU $&3 DQG QRW VLJQLILFDQW S! IRU : $)& $&, &,DQG&,7KHVHUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKDWWRSUHYHQWWKHLQFUHDVHRQWKHLQEUHHGLQJ FRHIILFLHQW DQG FRQVHTXHQW GHFUHDVH RI WKH HIIHFWLYH SRSXODWLRQ VL]H WKH PDWLQJ EHWZHHQ UHODWLYHV DQG LQWHQVLYH PDWLQJ VHOHFWLRQ VKRXOG EH DYRLGHG +HULWDELOLW\ HVWLPDWHV UDQJHG IURP “ IRU &, WR “ IRU : *HQHWLF FRUUHODWLRQVUDQJHGIURP“IRU:ZLWK$)&WR“IRU$&,ZLWK &, *HQHWLF WUHQGV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW S DQG IDYRUDEOH IRU : PDWHUQDO JHQHWLFHIIHFWDQG&,DQGXQIDYRUDEOHIRU$)&$&,$&37KHKHULWDELOLW\HVWLPDWHV RI : $)& DQG $&3 GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKHVH WUDLWV KDYH JHQHWLF YDULDELOLW\ HQRXJKWREHLQFOXGHGLQWKHVHOHFWLRQSURFHVVDQGWKHJHQHWLFFRUUHODWLRQVLQGLFDWH IDYRUDEOHUHVSRQVHRI$)&DQG$&3VHOHFWLRQRQFDOYLQJLQWHUYDOV7KHXQIDYRUDEOH JHQHWLF WUHQGV IRU $)& $&, DQG $&3 UHIOHFW WKH UHFHQW LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI JHQHWLF EUHHGLQJSURJUDPLQ7DEDSXmFDWWOH

(16)

&$3Ë78/2&216,'(5$d®(6*(5$,6

,1752'8d­2

2WDPDQKRGRUHEDQKRERYLQRPXQGLDOIRLHVWLPDGRHPPDLVGHELOK}HV GH DQLPDLV HP )$2 2 %UDVLO IRL R VHJXQGR SDtV TXH WHYH PDLRU H[SDQVmRGRUHEDQKRFRPDXPHQWRGHDQLPDLVHQWUHD(VVH FUHVFLPHQWRGDERYLQRFXOWXUDEUDVLOHLUDGHYHVHDRDXPHQWRGHNJQRFRQVXPR GDFDUQHERYLQDSRUSHVVRDQHVVHPHVPRSHUtRGR$18$/3(&VRPDGRD GHPDQGDSDUDH[SRUWDomR

'HQWUHDVIRQWHVGHSURWHtQDDFDUQHERYLQDpGHJUDQGHDFHLWDomRHQWUHRV EUDVLOHLURV FRUUHVSRQGHQGR D GR DEDVWHFLPHQWR GH FDUQHV GR SDtV )$2 3DUDDEDVWHFHURFRQVXPRGHFDUQHQDFLRQDOHLQWHUQDFLRQDOR%UDVLOSURGX] JUDQGHTXDQWLGDGHGHVWHDOLPHQWRHRFXSDQRV~OWLPRVDQRVDVSULPHLUDVSRVLo}HV HQWUHRVSDtVHVH[SRUWDGRUHVGHFDUQHERYLQD$18$/3(&8PDYH]TXHR PHUFDGR GR DJURQHJyFLR HQYROYH DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH GR 3,% QDFLRQDO &(3($pQHFHVViULRH[SDQGLUDSURGXomRHDWHQGHUDVGHPDQGDVQDFLRQDLV HLQWHUQDFLRQDLV3DUDDXPHQWDUDSURGXWLYLGDGHHPHOKRUDUDTXDOLGDGHGRSURGXWR H[LJLGR SHOR FRQVXPLGRU p QHFHVViULR SURPRYHU PHOKRULDV HP DWLYLGDGHV Mi H[HUFLGDVFRPRDXPHQWRGDTXDOLGDGHQDDOLPHQWDomRDQLPDOPXGDQoDGHPDQHMR HDSOLFDomRGHVLVWHPDGHFRQILQDPHQWRHDLQWURGXomRGHQRYDVWHFQRORJLDVSDUDD SURGXomR FRPR D DSOLFDomR GH SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR DQLPDO 0,//(1HWDO

$ SURGXomR ERYLQD QDFLRQDO p HP VXD PDLRU SDUWH UHDOL]DGD GH IRUPD H[WHQVLYD H HP VRORV GH EDL[D RX PpGLD IHUWLOLGDGH )(55$= )(/Ë&,2 'HVVD PDQHLUD WRUQDVH QHFHVViULR FULDU DQLPDLV TXH VH DGDSWHP EHP DR VROR WHPSHUDWXUDHFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLV'HYLGRVXDUXVWLFLGDGHRVDQLPDLVGHRULJHP ]HEXtQDIRUDPRVTXHPHOKRUVHDGDSWDUDPjVFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLVHGHSURGXomR EUDVLOHLUDVHUHSUHVHQWDPGRUHEDQKRQDFLRQDO)5(,7$6HWDO

(17)

IRL UHFRQKHFLGD DSHQDV HP $%&7 (VWD UDoD IRL D SULPHLUD GRV QHR]HEXtQRV IRUPDGD D SDUWLU GH SODQHMDPHQWR ]RRWpFQLFR $%&7 3RUpP VXDIRUPDomRpPXLWRUHFHQWHHWRGRRUHEDQKRIRLFRQVWLWXtGRSHORDFDVDODPHQWRGH DSHQDV XP PDFKR (VWD RULJHP GD UDoD 7DEDSXm SRGH IDYRUHFHU D UHGXomR GD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDHVXDVFRQVHTXrQFLDV

$OJXQVSDUkPHWURVSRSXODFLRQDLVFDOFXODGRVDSDUWLUGHUHJLVWURVGHSHGLJUHH SRGHP GHVFUHYHU D YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD DSyV SRXFDV JHUDo}HV SHUPLWLQGR R HVWXGR GD HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO SRU ORQJR SHUtRGR GH WHPSR %2,&+$5' 0$,*1(/9(55,(52SHGLJUHHWDPEpPSHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDUDHQGRJDPLDGD SRSXODomR DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV D TXDO HP HOHYDGRV JUDXV SRGH SURPRYHU UHGXomRQDIHUWLOLGDGHHYLDELOLGDGHGRVDQLPDLVDOpPGDUHGXomRQRGHVHPSHQKR GH DOJXPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV 'HVVD PDQHLUD YHULILFDU D HVWUXWXUD GD SRSXODomR H D HQGRJDPLD VmR SDVVRV LPSRUWDQWHV SDUD LPSOHPHQWDU XP SURJUDPD GH VHOHomR JHQpWLFDGRVDQLPDLVRXPHOKRUDURSODQHMDPHQWRGDTXHOHVMiH[LVWHQWHV

$ UDoD 7DEDSXm SRVVXL SUHFRFLGDGH HP JDQKR GH SHVR DWLQJLQGR SHVRV HOHYDGRVjLGDGHDRDEDWH(VWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDpGHLQWHUHVVHDRSURGXWRUXPDYH] TXH R %UDVLO DLQGD p XP SDtV TXH SRVVXL PpGLD GH LGDGH GH DEDWH GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWHGHDQRVRTXHHYLGHQFLDTXHDPpGLDGHHQJRUGDSRUDQRQHVWHVDQLPDLVQR SDtVDLQGDpPXLWREDL[D5(6(1'($OpPGLVVRDLGDGHjPDWXULGDGHGDV YDFDVpPXLWRDOWDHDSURGXomRGHEH]HUURVSRUYDFDSRUDQRQRSDtVpPXLWREDL[D 0,//(1HWDO$18$/3(&

$VIrPHDVGDUDoD7DEDSXmDWLQJHPGRVDPHVHVGHLGDGHGH IHUWLOLGDGHHGRVDPHVHVPDLVGH)5(,7$6(VWHGHVHPSHQKR GHVWDFD D UDoDHQWUHRXWURV ]HEXtQRV SRLVD HILFLrQFLD QD UHSURGXomRGDVIrPHDV WHPJUDQGHLPSDFWRHFRQ{PLFRQDSURGXomRGHFDUQH$%<HWDOXPDYH] TXH HVWDV DR DWLQJLUHP D LGDGH j PDWXULGDGH SUHFRFHPHQWH VRPDGR DR UiSLGR UHWRUQRDRFLFORHVWUDODXPHQWDPRQ~PHURGHEH]HUURVSURGX]LGRVDRORQJRGHVXD YLGDFRPFRQVHTXHQWHDXPHQWRGRUHWRUQRHFRQ{PLFRSDUDRSURGXWRU

(18)

JHQpWLFRV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LQWHUHVVH GR SURJUDPD GH VHOHomR HVWDEHOHFLGR 0$/+$'2 HW DO H PRQLWRUDU DV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV DYDOLDGDV SRU DQR GH QDVFLPHQWR SDUD DFRPSDQKDU RV UHVXOWDGRV REWLGRV SHOR SURJUDPDGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFRHUHDOL]DUSRVVtYHLVPXGDQoDVGHFULWpULRVGH VHOHomRFDVRQHFHVViULR

(VWH WUDEDOKR WHYH FRPR REMHWLYRV HVWXGDU D HVWUXWXUD GD SRSXODomR H R HIHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH R SHVR DR GHVPDPH FRUULJLGR SDUD GLDV GH LGDGH LGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHSURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGDHHVWLPDU SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV H HILFLrQFLD UHODWLYD GH VHOHomR SDUD HVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSURGXWLYDVHUHSURGXWLYDVGHUHOHYkQFLDHFRQ{PLFDHPERYLQRV GHFRUWHGDUDoD7DEDSXmDILPGHDYDOLDUDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVPDLVLQGLFDGDVSDUDD VHOHomRJHQpWLFDGRVDQLPDLVHTXDLVPHGLGDVGHYHPVHUWRPDGDVFDVRKDMDJUDQGH LQIOXrQFLDGDHQGRJDPLDQDSRSXODomR

(6758785$'$',66(57$d­2

1HVWHFDStWXORIRUDPDERUGDGRVDVSHFWRVWHyULFRVVREUHRVSDUkPHWURVTXH GHVFUHYHP D HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO WDLV FRPR LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH WDPDQKR HIHWLYR SRSXODFLRQDO Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV H GH DQFHVWUDLV FRHILFLHQWH GH SDUHQWHVFR H GH HQGRJDPLD $LQGD QHVWH FDStWXOR IRL DSUHVHQWDGD UHYLVmR GH OLWHUDWXUDVREUHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLPSRUWkQFLDHFRQ{PLFDSDUDDUDoD7DEDSXmWDLV FRPRSHVRDRGHVPDPHDMXVWDGRSDUDGLDVGHLGDGH3LGDGHDRSULPHLUR SDUWR,33LQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV,3HSURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD3$&1R&DStWXOR FRQVWDP DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH SDUkPHWURV SRSXODFLRQDLV H UHODomR GH FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHV GH HQGRJDPLD FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD FLWDGDV DFLPD1R&DStWXORIRUDPDSUHVHQWDGDVDVHVWLPDWLYDVGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVH WHQGrQFLDVJHQpWLFDVSDUD3,33,3H3$&1R&DStWXORIRUDPDSUHVHQWDGDV DVLPSOLFDo}HVJHUDLVHDDSOLFDomRSUiWLFDGHVWHWUDEDOKR

(19)

5(9,6­2'(/,7(5$785$

(VWUXWXUDGDSRSXODomR

$ DYDOLDomR GD HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO IRUQHFH VXSRUWH SDUD GHVHQYROYHU IHUUDPHQWDV H HVWUDWpJLDV SDUD D DSOLFDomR GR PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR EHP FRPR GHILQLU RV SURFHGLPHQWRV SDUD DWLQJLU RV REMHWLYRV GH VHOHomR GR SURJUDPD LPSOHPHQWDGR 0$/+$'2 HW DO (VWD DYDOLDomR GD HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO IRUQHFH LQIRUPDo}HV FRPR LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV WDPDQKR HIHWLYRGDSRSXODomRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLVH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDGRVLQGLYtGXRV

,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH

$ LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH SHUPLWH LGHQWLILFDU R TXDQWR GR SHGLJUHH HP FDGD JHUDomRHVWiFRPSOHWRHSRGHVHUFDOFXODGDSRUPHLRGDTXDQWLGDGHGHLQIRUPDomR TXHpGHVFRQKHFLGDRXVHMDRTXDQWRGHUHJLVWURGRVSDLVHVWiDXVHQWH2Q~PHUR GHJHUDo}HVWDPEpPFRQWULEXLSDUDDLQWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHHHSRGHVHUFDOFXODGR GHWUrVIRUPDVQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVFRPSOHWDV)LJXUD$REWLGDSHORQ~PHURGH JHUDo}HV HP TXH DPERV RV SDLV VmR FRQKHFLGRV Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV Pi[LPDV )LJXUD % REWLGD SHOR Q~PHUR GR WRWDO GH JHUDo}HV SRVVtYHLV VHQGR RV SDLV FRQKHFLGRVRXQmRHQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVHTXLYDOHQWHV)LJXUD&RTXDOpGDGR SHOD VRPD GH WRGRV RV DQFHVWUDLV GRV TXDLV VH WHP UHJLVWUR H FDOFXODGR SHOR

VRPDWyULRGH1 2

HPTXHpRQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVTXHRLQGLYtGXRpVHSDUDGR GHFDGDDQFHVWUDOFRQKHFLGR0$,*1(/%2,&+$5'9(55,(5

(20)

&DLUHV HW DO DYDOLDUDP XP FRQMXQWR GH SHGLJUHH GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD 7DEDSXmHREVHUYDUDPTXHGRVDQLPDLVWLYHUDPSDLVHPmHVGHVFRQKHFLGRV HQmRWLYHUDPLQIRUPDomRGRVDYyVQRSHGLJUHH$UHGXomRQDLQIRUPDomR GH SHGLJUHH HP JHUDo}HV PDLV DQWLJDV WDPEpP IRL REVHUYDGD SRU 3DQHWWR HW DO HPERYLQRVGDUDoD*X]HUiHSRU0DOKDGRHWDOHPERYLQRVGDUDoD 1HORUH6FUDJJVHWDOHVWXGDUDPXPDSRSXODomRGHDQLPDLV:DJ\XH REWLYHUDPPpGLDGRQ~PHURGHJHUDomRFRPSOHWDEDL[DVHQGRLJXDOD$IDOWD GH LQIRUPDomRQR SHGLJUHH SRGH VXEHVWLPDU R FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD FDOFXODGR SDUDRVDQLPDLVPDLVYHOKRVDVVLPFRPRDPpGLDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDSDUD WRGD SRSXODomR $ LQIOXrQFLD GD HVWUXWXUD GH SHGLJUHH QD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFDIRL UHODWDGD SRU 'DQFKLQ%XUJH HW DO HVWXGDQGR GLYHUVDV UDoDV GH ERYLQRV GH OHLWH FRP GLIHUHQWHV TXDQWLGDGHV GH LQIRUPDomR GH SHGLJUHH (P ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUHVXJHULXVHSRVVtYHOVXEHVWLPDomRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDGHYLGRIDOWD GHLQIRUPDomRQRSHGLJUHH6$17$1$-5HWDO

7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR

2 WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR p GDGR SHOR Q~PHUR GH LQGLYtGXRV TXH H[SOLFDULD D WD[D GH HQGRJDPLD REWLGD VH HVWHVIRVVHPDFDVDODGRV DOHDWRULDPHQWH :5,*+72XVRLQWHQVLYRGHDOJXQVLQGLYtGXRVSRGHSURPRYHUDXPHQWRGD WD[DGHHQGRJDPLDHUHGXomRGRWDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR0È548(=HWDO

(VWXGRV UHDOL]DGRV SRU 6FKHQNHO /D*LRLD H 5LEROGL FRP UHJLVWURV GH SHGLJUHHGHDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUHHDQLPDLVGDUDoD7DEDSXm UHYHODUDPWDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomRGHHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHLGHQWLILFDQGR PDLRU UHGXomR GD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD SDUD D UDoD 1HORUH 3RUpP HVWDV HVWLPDWLYDVIRUDPPXLWRPHQRUHVHPUHODomRDRREWLGRFRPUHJLVWURVGHSHGLJUHHGH DQLPDLV5HG$QJXVHVWXGDGRVSRU0iUTXH]HWDOTXHREWLYHUDP WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GH DQLPDLV $ 2UJDQL]DomR GH $JULFXOWXUD H $OLPHQWRV )$2 FRQVLGHUDQtYHOFUtWLFRSDUDSRSXODo}HVFRPWDPDQKRHIHWLYRDEDL[RGHLQGLYtGXRV SRUJHUDomR)$2

(21)

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV

2VUHSURGXWRUHVFRPSDLHPmHGHVFRQKHFLGRVVmRFRQVLGHUDGRVIXQGDGRUHV H R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV UHSUHVHQWD R Q~PHUR HVSHUDGR GHVVHV UHSURGXWRUHV IXQGDGRUHV RV TXDLV VH FRQWULEXtVVHP LJXDOPHQWH FRP PDWHULDO JHQpWLFR SURPRYHULD D PHVPD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD /$&< 2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV SRVVXL YDULDomR GH DFRUGR FRP D SRSXODomRHVWXGDGDFRPRUHODWDGRSRU&DLUHVHWDOGHSDUDDQLPDLVGD UDoD7DEDSXmHSRU0DOKDGRHWDOGHDQLPDLVSDUDDUDoD1HORUH

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV

2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV UHSUHVHQWD R Q~PHUR PtQLPR GH DQFHVWUDLV IXQGDGRUHV RX QmR TXH H[SOLFDP WRGD D GLYHUVLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD %2,&+$5' 0$,*1(/ 9(55,(5 2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHVHDQFHVWUDLVEDL[RVLQGLFDPPHQRUGLYHUVLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDSRSXODomRH FRQVHTXHQWHPHQWH PDLRU HQGRJDPLD H SHTXHQR WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD $VVLP FRPR R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV WDPEpP SRVVXL YDULDomR FRQIRUPH R SHGLJUHH HVWXGDGR SRGHQGR VHU REVHUYDGRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLVLJXDODSDUDXPUHEDQKRIHFKDGRGDUDoD 1HORUHGDOLQKDJHP/HPJUXEHU2/,9(,5$HWDOHQTXDQWRTXHXPHVWXGRGH XPDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHUHODWRXTXHGDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFD SRGHULDVHUH[SOLFDGDSRUDQFHVWUDLV0$/+$'2HWDO

&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD

(22)

2 FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD GHYH VHU FRQVLGHUDGR QD LPSODQWDomR GH XP SURJUDPD GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR SRU PHLR GH FRQWUROH GH DFDVDODPHQWR HP DQLPDLVDSDUHQWDGRVXPDYH]TXHDOWRVtQGLFHVGHHQGRJDPLDSRGHPSUHMXGLFDUR GHVHPSHQKRSDUDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLPSRUWkQFLDHFRQ{PLFD4XHLUR]$OEXTXHUTXH H /DQ]RQL UHODWDUDP HIHLWR QHJDWLYR GD HQGRJDPLD QR SHVR DR GHVPDPH DVVLP FRPR 6DQWDQD -U HW DO TXH WDPEpP YHULILFDUDP UHGXomR QD SUREDELOLGDGHGHSUHQKH]DRVPHVHVFRPHOHYDGRtQGLFHGHHQGRJDPLDQDUDoD 1HORUH0F3DUODQGHWDOREVHUYDUDPDXPHQWRGDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRHP DQLPDLVGDUDoD+RODQGHVDFRPRDXPHQWRGDHQGRJDPLD(VWXGRVUHDOL]DGRVSRU 3DQHWWR HW DO WDPEpP REVHUYDUDP LQIOXrQFLD GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD VREUH LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR H LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV SDUD ERYLQRV GD UDoD *X]HUi DVVLP FRPR 5RNRXHL HW DO TXH YHULILFDUDP VLJQLILFkQFLD QR HIHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH DV PHVPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HP YDFDV GD UDoD +RODQGHVD HYLGHQFLDQGR TXH D HQGRJDPLD SRGH DIHWDU WDQWR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SURGXWLYDV FRPR UHSURGXWLYDV

&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLQWHUHVVHHFRQ{PLFRSDUDUDoD7DEDSXm

3HVRDRGHVPDPH

2SHVRDRGHVPDPHTXHpPHGLGRHPLGDGHVTXHYDULDPGHDGLDV GH DFRUGR FRP R SURJUDPD GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR SRVVXL GHVWDTXH HP VLVWHPDVGHSURGXomRGHFULDTXHWrPREH]HUURFRPRSULQFLSDOSURGXWR6RPDGRD HVWHLQWHUHVVHWHPVHTXHRSHVRDRGHVPDPHSRVVXLFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDSRVLWLYD GHPRGHUDGDDDOWDPDJQLWXGHFRPSHVRVDLGDGHVIXWXUDV)(55$=),/+2HWDO R TXH SRGH VHU XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD GH LPSRUWkQFLD SDUD VHOHomR FRP ILQDOLGDGH GH REWHU DQLPDLV FRP HOHYDGR SHVR FRUSRUDO j LGDGH GH DEDWH )HUUD] )LOKRHWDOREWLYHUDPPpGLDGHSHVRDRGHVPDPHGHNJHPDQLPDLV GDUDoD7DEDSXmPXLWRSUy[LPDDREWLGDSRU5LEHLURHWDOGHNJQD PHVPDUDoD

(23)

SHVRDRGHVPDPHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXm7UDEDOKRVUHDOL]DGRVFRPERYLQRV GDUDoD1HORUHREWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHYDULDQGRGHDSDUD SHVRDRGHVPDPH628=$HWDO%2/,*21%$/',$/%848(548( 6$17$11$HWDO'HPDQHLUDJHUDODKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDSHVRDRGHVPDPH DSUHVHQWDVH GH PRGHUDGD PDJQLWXGH H FRQVHTXHQWHPHQWH DV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV SDUD HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD REVHUYDGDV HP SURFHVVR GH VHOHomR VmR IDYRUiYHLVFRPWD[DGHPXGDQoDDQXDOTXHYDULDUDPGHNJDQRDNJDQR SDUD GLIHUHQWHV UDoDV HVWXGDGDV $5$Ò-2 HW DO /$85($12 HW DO 628=$HWDO=8,1HWDO6(1$HWDO6286$HWDOR TXH HYLGHQFLD TXH D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SRVVXL YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD VXILFLHQWH SDUD UHVSRQGHUDRSURFHVVRGHVHOHomR

'HYLGR j GLILFXOGDGH HP UHDOL]DU D SHVDJHP GH DQLPDLV QR PHVPR GLD UHDOL]DPVH SHVDJHQV HP GLIHUHQWHV GDWDV H DV PHGLGDV VmR FRUULJLGDV SDUD GHWHUPLQDGDLGDGH3DUDUHDOL]DUHVWDFRUUHomRSRGHVHXWLOL]DUPRGHORVQmROLQHDUHV *21d$/9(6 HW DO RX OLQHDUHV VHQGR RV GH UHJUHVVmR RV PDLV XWLOL]DGRV *5266,HWDO

$OpP GR DMXVWH GD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD D HVFROKD GR PRGHOR SDUD HVWLPDomR GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV D VHU DSOLFDGR p GH LPSRUWkQFLD SDUD REWHU HVWLPDWLYDV FRQILiYHLV TXH VmR HVVHQFLDLV QD FRQGXomR GD VHOHomR HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFR$%(5$HWDO2VPRGHORVXWLOL]DGRVQDDQiOLVHGRV GDGRV EDVHLDPVH QD LQFOXVmR GH HIHLWRV IL[RV TXH GHYHP SRVVXLU VLJQLILFkQFLD VREUH DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HVWXGDGDV H HIHLWRV DOHDWyULRV TXH HP JHUDO LQFOXHP DSHQDV R HIHLWR JHQpWLFR DGLWLYR GLUHWR GR DQLPDO H QmR XWLOL]DP R HIHLWR JHQpWLFR PDWHUQR H GH DPELHQWH SHUPDQHQWH FRPR HIHLWR DOHDWyULR ID]HQGR FRP TXH DV HVWLPDWLYDVREWLGDVSRVVDPVHUVXSHUHVWLPDGDV0$/+$'2HWDOXPDYH] TXH HVWHV FRPSRQHQWHV SRGHP LQIOXHQFLDU QD H[SUHVVmR IHQRWtSLFD GR DQLPDO 6HJXQGR5LEHLURHWDOXPPRGHORDGHTXDGRSDUDHVWLPDUSDUkPHWURVSDUD SHVR DR GHVPDPH GHYH FRQWHU R HIHLWR JHQpWLFR PDWHUQR DOpP GR HIHLWR JHQpWLFR DGLWLYR GLUHWR QRV HIHLWRV DOHDWyULRV GHYLGR D DOWD YDULkQFLD GHVWH FRPSRQHQWH YHULILFDGDSDUDERYLQRV7DEDSXm

(24)

HVWHV GRLV FRPSRQHQWHV $OEXTXHUTXH H 0H\HU VXJHULUDP HVWDEHOHFHU D FRYDULkQFLDHQWUHRHIHLWRJHQpWLFRGLUHWRHPDWHUQRFRPR]HUR(QWUHWDQWRVHJXQGR $EHUD HW DO VH XP SURJUDPD GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR HVSHUD DWLQJLU SURJUHVVRQRWiYHOHVWHGHYHVHEDVHDUHPPRGHORVQRVTXDLVDYDOLDUDPDSRVVtYHO LQFOXVmRGHVWDFRYDULkQFLDQDDQiOLVHGHYLGRDREWHQomRGHPHOKRUHVWLPDWLYDVGH SDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVTXDQGRHVWDFRYDULkQFLDHVWDYDLQFOXVDQDVDQiOLVHV6HJXQGR HVWHV DXWRUHV SDUD D LQFOXVmR GH WDO WHUPR p QHFHVViULR TXDQWLGDGH VXILFLHQWH GH UHJLVWURVGHGHVHPSHQKRHGHSHGLJUHH

8PDYH]HVWDEHOHFLGRRPRGHORDVHUXWLOL]DGROHYDQGRVHHPFRQVLGHUDomR WRGRVRVHIHLWRVTXHGHYHPVHULQFOXtGRVGHDFRUGRFRPRVUHJLVWURVFRQVHJXHVH UHDOL]DU D DSOLFDomR GH XP SURFHVVR GH VHOHomR 1R HQWDQWR DR HVWDEHOHFHU XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDFRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomRpSUHFLVRFRPSUHHQGHUDUHODomRGHVWDFRP DV GHPDLV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD D ILP GH HYLWDU PRGLILFDo}HV LQHVSHUDGDV QR UHEDQKR TXH SRVVDP DFDUUHWDU SUHMXt]RV $ FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD HQWUHGLIHUHQWHVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDUHVWDVDVVRFLDo}HV

3HUHLUD HW DO HVWXGDQGR DVVRFLDo}HV HQWUH SHVR DR GHVPDPH FRP LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR H LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV SDUD ERYLQRV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm UHODWDUDPFRUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDVLJXDLVDHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH*XLGROLQHW DO HVWLPDUDP FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD HQWUH SHVR DR GHVPDPH H LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR LJXDO D HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD *X]HUi %ROLJRQ HW DO UHODWDUDP HVWLPDWLYD GH FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD HQWUH SHVR DR GHVPDPH H LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR SDUD ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH LJXDO D VHQGR HVWH YDORU SRXFR UHSUHVHQWDWLYR R TXDO QmR SHUPLWH FRQFOXV}HV VREUH D DVVRFLDomR GHVWDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV

,GDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR

(25)

UHSURGXWLYD $ VHOHomR SDUD UHGX]LU D LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR UHGX] R LQWHUYDOR GH JHUDo}HVHIDYRUHFHRSURFHVVRGHVHOHomR3(/,&,21,HWDO

0pGLDVGHLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRHPHVWXGRVSDUDERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH IRUDPSUy[LPDVDRVPHVHVGHLGDGH%2/,*21HWDO/$85($12HWDO %2/,*21$/%848(548(&$(7$12HWDO3DUDERYLQRVGD UDoD 7DEDSXm 3HUHLUD HW DO YHULILFDUDP PpGLD SUy[LPD GH PHVHV GH LGDGH

(VWXGRV UHDOL]DGRV FRP ERYLQRV GH GLYHUVDV UDoDV HP SDtVHV FRPR %UDVLO 0p[LFR H ,Um REWLYHUDP HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH GH “ SDUD LGDGH DR SULPHLURSDUWRHPERYLQRVGDUDoD&DQFKLPD“HPERYLQRVPXOWLUUDFLDO%RV

LQGLFXVSDUD D PHVPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD 0$*$f$ 6(*85$ %$/,(,52 HW DO

%8=$16.$6 HW DO 6$17$1$ -5 HW DO $528*+ $6/$0,1(-$')$5+$1*)$5(QWUHWDQWRJUDQGHSDUWHGRVWUDEDOKRVFRP ERYLQRVGHFRUWH]HEXtQRVDSUHVHQWDKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRGH PDJQLWXGHEDL[DDPRGHUDGDFRPRGHHREVHUYDGRVHPERYLQRVGD UDoD1HORUH*5266,HWDO%2/,*21$/%848(548(%2/,*21 %$/',$/%848(548(HGHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXm3(5(,5$ HWDO

(PERUD D LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR DSUHVHQWH EDL[DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH DV WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV REVHUYDGDV HP DQLPDLV GD UDoD 1HORUH H PXOWLUUDFLDO%RV LQGLFXV PRVWUDPVH IDYRUiYHLV SULQFLSDOPHQWH HP SHUtRGRV PDLV

UHFHQWHV QR HQWDQWR R FRHILFLHQWH GH UHJUHVVmR PRVWURXVH SHTXHQR *5266, HW DO $528*+ $6/$0,1(-$' )$5+$1*)$5 /$85($12 HW DO (VWHV UHODWRV DSRQWDP TXH HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD GHYH VHU OHYDGD HP FRQVLGHUDomR FRPR FULWpULR GH VHOHomR HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR GHYLGRVXDLPSRUWkQFLDQDFDGHLDSURGXWLYDPHVPRTXHRSURJUHVVRJHQpWLFRVHMD OHQWR6(*85$&255($HWDO

(26)

DRUHDOL]DUDH[SRVLomRGDVIrPHDVDRVPDFKRVQRSHUtRGRGHUHSURGXomR$VVLP DV HVWLPDWLYDV GRV SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV DQDOLVDGRV SRGHP GHSHQGHU HP JUDQGH SDUWHGDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGDGDVFLUFXQVWkQFLDVDPELHQWDLVGHVWDSRSXODomRHGR PRGHORGHHVWLPDomRHPHWRGRORJLDXWLOL]DGRV0$*$f$6(*85$

'LDVHWDODQDOLVDUDPWUrVPRGHORVSDUDDQiOLVHGHLGDGHDRSULPHLUR SDUWR FRP GLIHUHQWHV LQFOXV}HV GH HIHLWRV IL[RV H REWLYHUDP PDLRU FRHILFLHQWH GH GHWHUPLQDomR5 QRPRGHORTXHLQFOXLXQRJUXSRGHFRQWHPSRUkQHRVRDQR HVWDomRHID]HQGDGRQDVFLPHQWRGRDQLPDOJUXSRVGHPDQHMRDRQDVFLPHQWRDR GHVPDPH H DR VREUHDQR WLSR GH FREHUWXUD R DQR H D HVWDomR GR SDUWR $OpP GR JUXSR GH FRQWHPSRUkQHRV RV HIHLWRV IL[RV LQFOXtUDP LGDGH GD PmH GR DQLPDO DR SDUWRFRPRHIHLWROLQHDUHTXDGUiWLFRHDPERVVHPRVWUDUDPVLJQLILFDWLYRVS HP GRLV PRGHORV DQDOLVDGRV *URVVL HW DO QmR HQFRQWUDUDP LQIOXrQFLD VLJQLILFDWLYDSDRDQDOLVDUHPRHIHLWRGDLGDGHGDPmHDRSDUWRVREUHDLGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR $SHVDU GDV GLILFXOGDGHV HQFRQWUDGDV SDUD D HVWLPDomR GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV SDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHSURGXWLYDV HVWDV VmR DV TXH PDLV SURPRYHPLPSDFWRHFRQ{PLFRHPXPVLVWHPDSURGXWLYR%580$77,HWDO

$DVVRFLDomRJHQpWLFDHQWUHLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRHGHPDLVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV VmR HVWXGDGDV YLVDQGR LGHQWLILFDU SRVVtYHLVPRGLILFDo}HVDR ORQJR GR SURFHVVR GH VHOHomR TXH LQFOXD LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR FRPR FULWpULR GH VHOHomR %ROLJRQ $OEXTXHUTXHH&DHWDQRHWDOUHODWDUDPFRUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDVEDL[DV HQWUH LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR H SHVR D PDWXULGDGH GD YDFD HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH7DPEpPKiUHODWRVGHDVVRFLDo}HVJHQpWLFDVHQWUHLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR HLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHPGLYHUVDVUDoDVYDULDQGRFRQIRUPHDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGD FRPHVWLPDWLYDVGH“D“*87,e55(=HWDO9(5*$5$ (/=2&(5Ï108f2=$528*+$6/$0,1(-$')$5+$1*)$5

,QWHUYDORGHSDUWRV

(27)

SDUDERYLQRVGHFRUWHGHHGLDVQDVUDoDV$VWXULDQDGHORV 9DOOHV+HUHIRUGH&KDUROrVUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH*87,e55(=HWDO25(1*(HW DO

&RPRDVGHPDLVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVUHSURGXWLYDVRLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVDSUHVHQWD HVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHGHPRGHUDGDVDEDL[DVPDJQLWXGHVFRPRYHULILFDGDV SRU *XWLpUUH] HW DO GH “ SDUD LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD $VWXULDQD GH ORV 9DOOHV H SRU 3HUHLUD HW DO GH SDUD SULPHLUR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm $ WHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD REVHUYDGD HP ERYLQRV GH FRUWH SRU 9HUJDUD (O]R H &HUyQ0XxR] SDUD HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SHUPDQHFHX SUDWLFDPHQWH LQDOWHUDGD DR ORQJR GRV DQRV VHQGR D FDXVDDWULEXtGDDXPIDWRUDPELHQWDOTXHOLPLWRXDPDLRUH[SUHVVmRGDFDUDFWHUtVWLFD (P ERYLQRV GH OHLWHHVWXGRV WDPEpP REVHUYDUDP DXVrQFLD GHWHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD SDUD SULPHLUR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV H VHJXQGR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HP YDFDV KRODQGHVDV$528*+$6/$0,1(-$')$5+$1*)$53DQHWRHWDO REVHUYRXWHQGrQFLDJHQpWLFDGHVIDYRUiYHOSDUDLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHPYDFDV*X]HUi QRSHUtRGRHVWXGDGR

2PRGHORXWLOL]DGRQDVDQiOLVHVSDUDHVWLPDomRGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUD LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV p PXLWR VHPHOKDQWH DR PRGHOR XWLOL]DGR SDUD D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR FRPR R GHVFULWR SRU *XWLpUUH] HW DO 5DQJHO HW DO DRDQDOLVDUHPDVLJQLILFkQFLDGRVHIHLWRVIL[RVLQFOXtGRVHPVHXPRGHORSDUD YDFDV *X]HUi REVHUYDUDP TXH D pSRFD H DQR GH SDULomR H VH[R GD FULD QmR LQIOXHQFLDUDP VLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH S! D YDULDomR IHQRWtSLFD GR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV HQTXDQWR TXH D RUGHP GH SDULomR DSUHVHQWRX HIHLWR TXDGUiWLFR VREUH HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD

5HDOL]DUDPVH HVWXGRV SDUD LGHQWLILFDU SRVVtYHLV DVVRFLDo}HV JHQpWLFDV GH LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV FRP RXWUDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD FRPR IDFLOLGDGHGHSDUWRHSHVRDGHVPDPHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD$VWXULDQDGHORV9DOOHV LGHQWLILFDQGR EDL[DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV DV TXDLV IRUDP LJXDLV D H UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH *87,e55(= 0HUFDGDQWH /{ER H 2OLYHLUD WDPEpPREVHUYDUDPFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDPXLWRSHTXHQDGHSDUDSHVR DRVGLDVGHLGDGHHSULPHLURLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH

(28)

3URGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD

$YDFDGHYHLQLFLDURFLFORUHSURGXWLYRSUHFRFHPHQWHHPDQWHUDSHULRGLFLGDGH HP SDULU EH]HUURV H FRP VXD KDELOLGDGH PDWHUQD GHVPDPiORV FRP PDLRU SHVR 3DUD LVWR IRUDP SURSRVWRV tQGLFHV TXH SXGHVVHP UHODFLRQDU WDLV TXDOLGDGHV GH PDQHLUDDGHTXDGDHTXHSXGHVVHPLGHQWLILFDUDSURGXWLYLGDGHGDIrPHD6HJXQGR 5DKQHIHOG:HLVVH:DUGHVWDSURGXWLYLGDGHGHYHULDVHUDYDOLDGDOHYDQGRVH HP FRQVLGHUDomR DV GLIHUHQoDV QR SHVR GD IrPHD HILFLrQFLD UHSURGXWLYD H FUHVFLPHQWRGREH]HUUR

2SURJUDPDGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFRPDQWLGRSHOD$VVRFLDomR1DFLRQDOGH &ULDGRUHV H 3HVTXLVDGRUHV $1&3 SURS{V R tQGLFH GHQRPLQDGR 3URGXWLYLGDGH $FXPXODGD 3$& R TXDO p FDSD] GH IRUQHFHU R SHVR HP TXLORJUDPDV GH EH]HUUR GHVPDPDGR SRU IrPHD SRU DQR VHQGR UHODFLRQDGR GLUHWDPHQWH FRP D LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR LQWHUYDOR GH SDUWRV 6&+:(1*%(5 %(=(55$ /Ð%2 H SHVRDRGHVPDPH$3$&pXPtQGLFHTXHH[LJHGDGRVGHWDOKDGRVVREUHDPDWUL]H VXD SURJrQLH (QWUHWDQWR HVWD p XPD PHGLGD FRPSOHWD GD SURGXWLYLGDGH GH XPD IrPHD FRQVLGHUDQGR VXD SUHFRFLGDGH VH[XDO IHUWLOLGDGH ORQJHYLGDGH H KDELOLGDGH PDWHUQD VHQGR DVVLP LQWHUHVVDQWH VXD DSOLFDomR QDV SURSULHGDGHV GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH526$

$ 3$& p REWLGD GD VHJXLQWH IRUPD 3$& 3G [ QS [ & ,93Q ± & /Ð%2 HW DO HP TXH 3G p SHVR PpGLR GRV EH]HUURV DR GHVPDPH SDGURQL]DGRSDUDGLDVGHLGDGHQSpQ~PHURWRWDOGHEH]HUURVSURGX]LGRV& pFRQVWDQWHLJXDODGLDVTXHSHUPLWHH[SUHVVDUDIHUWLOLGDGHHPEDVHDQXDO,93Q p LGDGH GD YDFD DR XOWLPR SDUWR & p FRQVWDQWH LJXDO D GLDV &RQVLGHUDQGR TXHDPHWDGR30*511HORUH%UDVLOSDUDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRpGHPHVHV RX VHMD ,93Q LJXDO D GLDV WHPVH TXH R FiOFXOR GH 3$& SDUD XPD YDFD SULPtSDUDTXHDWLQJLXHVWDPHWDUHVXOWDHP3$& 3G[QS[± 3G [[ 3G3RUWDQWRFRQVLGHUDQGRDPHWDHVWDEHOHFLGDSDUDLGDGHDR SULPHLURSDUWRDSULPHLUD3$&pUHSUHVHQWDGDSHORSHVRDRGHVPDPHGRSULPHLUR EH]HUURQDVFLGRGDYDFD

(29)

5HVXOWDGRV REWLGRV SRU 5RVD H 6FKZHQJEHU %H]HUUD H /{ER LQGLFDUDPYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDDGLWLYDVXILFLHQWHSDUDTXHD3$&IRVVHLQFOXtGDHP XPSURJUDPDGHVHOHomR*URVVLHWDOXWLOL]DQGRDQiOLVHELFDUDFWHUtVWLFDFRP LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR GLIHUHQWHV SHVRV FRUSRUDLV H GLIHUHQWHV FLUFXQIHUrQFLDV HVFURWDLVREWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUD3$&TXHYDULDUDPGHD HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH (VWH PHVPR HVWXGR UHYHORX WHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD IDYRUiYHOSDUDHVWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDQRSHUtRGRHVWXGDGR5HVXOWDGRVHPHOKDQWHSDUD 3$&WDPEpPIRLUHODWDGRSRU5RVDRTXHLQGLFDTXHHVWDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDSRGH DSUHVHQWDUUHVSRVWDVLJQLILFDWLYDHIDYRUiYHODRVHULQFOXtGDFRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomR (VWXGRV UHDOL]DGRV FRP D 3$& VmR HVFDVVRV REVHUYDQGR SRXFDV FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV GHVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHSURGXWLYDV *URVVL HW DO REVHUYDUDP FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD DOWD H QHJDWLYD LJXDO D HQWUH LGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRH3$&HPERYLQRV1HORUHRTXHLQGLFRXTXHVHOHomRSDUD ,33SRGHIDYRUHFHURDXPHQWRQD3$&QHVWDUDoD

5()(5Ç1&,$6

$%&7 $VVRFLDomR %UDVLOHLUD GRV &ULDGRUHV GH 7DEDSXm ± $%&7 +LVWyULD GD UDoD

7DEDSXm 'LVSRQtYHO HP

KWWSZZZWDEDSXDRUJEULQGH[SKS"SDJLQD QDYDEFWBKLVWRULD! $FHVVR HP GH IHYHUHLURGH

$%(5$ + $%(*$= 6 0(.$6+$ < *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHU HVWLPDWHV RI SUH ZHDQLQJZHLJKWRI+RUUR=HEXDQGWKHLUFURVVHVZLWK+ROVWHLQ)ULHVLDQDQG-HUVH\ FDWWOH EUHHGV LQ (WKLRSLD,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDO RI /LYHVWRFN 3URGXFWLRQ 9LFWRULD ,VODQGYQS

$%<%$$$66/6(+(67('%(9$1*(12(IIHFWVRIFKDQJHVLQH[WHUQDO SURGXFWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV RQ HFRQRPLF YDOXHV RI WUDLWV LQ &RQWLQHQWDO DQG %ULWLVK EHHI FDWWOHEUHHGV/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGYS

$/%848(548(/*0(<(5.(VWLPDWHVRIGLUHFWDQGPDWHUQDOJHQHWLFHIIHFWV IRU ZHLJKWV IURP ELUWK WR GD\V RI DJH LQ 1HORUH FDWWOH-RXUQDO RI $QLPDO %UHHGLQJDQG*HQHWLFV0DOGHQYS

$18$/3(&DQXiULRGDSHFXiULDEUDVLOHLUD6mR3DXOR,QIRUPD(FRQRPLFV )13S

(30)

$5$Ò-252525$72351:(%(57(9(5/,1*'0/23(6-6 '251(//(6 0 $ *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG SKHQRW\SLF DQG JHQHWLF WUHQGV IRU ZHLJKWDWZHDQLQJDQGYLVXDOVFRUHVGXULQJWKLVSKDVHHVWLPDWHGIRU$QJXV1HOORUH FURVVEUHG\RXQJEXOOV5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS ±

$528*+ + ) $6/$0,1(-$' $ $ )$5+$1*)$5 + (VWLPDWLRQ RI JHQHWLF SDUDPHWHUVDQGWUHQGVIRUDJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJDQGFDOYLQJLQWHUYDOLQ,UDQLDQ+ROVWHLQ FRZV-RXUQDO RI 5HVHDUFK LQ $JULFXOWXUDO 6FLHQFH %KRSDO Y Q S

$=(9Ç'2'0050$57,16),/+25/Ð%2 5 1 % /Ð%2 5 % 0285$ $ $ $ 1 3,0(17$ ),/+2 ( & 0$/+$'2 & + 0 3URGXWLYLGDGH DFXPXODGD3$&GDVPDWUL]HVHPUHEDQKRV1HORUHGR1RUWHH1RUGHVWHGR%UDVLO 5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS

%$/,(,52 ( 6 3(5(,5$ - & & 9(51(48( 5 6 %$/,(,52 - & & 9$/(17(-(VWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHHFRUUHODo}HVIHQRWtSLFDVJHQpWLFDVHGH DPELHQWHHQWUHDOJXPDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVUHSURGXWLYDVHSURGXomRGHOHLWHQDUDoD*LU $UTXLYR%UDVLOHLURGH0HGLFLQD9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYQ S±

%2,&+$5''0$,*1(//9(55,(5(7KHYDOXHRIXVLQJSUREDELOLWLHVRIJHQH RULJLQWRPHDVXUHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\LQDSRSXODWLRQ*HQHWLFV6HOHFWLRQ(YROXWLRQ /RQGUHVYQ๦S

%2/,*21 $ $ $/%848(548( / * 0(5&$'$17( 0 ( = /Ð%2 5 % 6WXG\RIUHODWLRQVDPRQJDJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJDYHUDJHZHLJKWJDLQVDQGZHLJKWVIURP ZHDQLQJWRPDWXULW\LQ1HOORUHFDWWOH5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDY QS±

%2/,*21 $ $ $/%848(548( / * *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG UHODWLRQVKLSV RI KHLIHUSUHJQDQF\DQGDJHDWILUVWFDOYLQJZLWKZHLJKWJDLQ\HDUOLQJDQGPDWXUHZHLJKW LQ1HORUHFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGYS±

%2/,*21 $ $ %$/', ) $/%848(548( / * *HQHWLF FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ KHLIHU VXEVHTXHQW UHEUHHGLQJ DQG DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ DQG JURZWK WUDLWV LQ 1HOORUH FDWWOHE\%D\HVLDQLQIHUHQFH*HQHWLFVDQG0ROHFXODU5HVHDUFK5LEHLUmR3UHWRY QS±

%580$77, 5 & )(55$= - % 6 (/(5 - 3 )250,*211, , % 'HVHQYROYLPHQWRGHtQGLFHGHVHOHomRHPJDGRFRUWHVRERHQIRTXHGHXPPRGHOR ELRHFRQ{PLFR$UFKLYRVGH=RRWHFQLD&yUGREDYQS±

(31)

&$(7$126/6$9(*1$*253%2/,*21$$5$0266%&+8'7 & 6 /Ð%2 5 % 081$5, ' 3 (VWLPDWH RI JHQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV IRU FDUFDVV JURZWKDQGUHSURGXFWLYHWUDLWVLQ1HOORUHFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGY QS±

&$,5(6 ' 1 0$/+$'2 & + 0 628=$ / $ 7(,;(,5$ 1(72 0 5 &$51(,52 3 / 6 0$57,16 ),/+2 5 7DEDSXm EUHHG LQ QRUWKHDVWHUQ %UD]LO JHQHWLF SURJUHVV DQG SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 3LUDFLFDEDYQS±

&(3($ &HQWUR GH HVWXGRV DYDQoDGRV HP HFRQRPLD DSOLFDGD ± &(3($ (6$/4863 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSFHSHDHVDOTXVSEUSLE! $FHVVR HP GHMXQKRGH

'$1&+,1%85*8(&/(52<*%52&+$5'00285($8;69(55,(5 ((YROXWLRQRIWKHJHQHWLFYDULDELOLW\RIHLJKW)UHQFKGDLU\FDWWOHEUHHGVDVVHVVHGE\ SHGLJUHH DQDO\VLV-RXUQDO RI $QLPDO %UHHGLQJ DQG *HQHWLFV0DOGHQ Y S ±

',$6/7)$52/($/%848(548(/*(VWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUD LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR GH QRYLOKDV GD UDoD 1HORUH 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS

'8$57(0/35%$6726-)3$YDOLDomRGHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVUHSURGXWLYDVGH XPUHEDQKRGDUDoD*X]HUi&XOWXUDDJURQ{PLFD,OKDVROWHLUDYQS

'811(5 6 &+(&$ 0 / *87,e55(= 3 0$57Ë1 3 &$fÏ1 -*HQHWLF DQDO\VLV DQG PDQDJHPHQW LQ VPDOO SRSXODWLRQV WKH $VWXUFRQ SRQ\ DV DQ H[DPSOH*HQHWLFV6HOHFWLRQ(YROXWLRQ/RQGUHVYS±

)$2)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQ6HFRQGDU\JXLGHOLQHVIRUGHYHORSPHQWRI QDWLRQDO IDUP DQLPDO JHQHWLF UHVRXUFHV PDQDJHPHQW SODQV PDQDJHPHQW RI VPDOO

SRSXODWLRQV DW ULVN )$2 5RPH ,WDO\ 'LVSRQtYHO HP

KWWSZZZIDRRUJDJDJDLQIRSURJUDPPHVSWOHDGWRROER[,QGXVWVPOSRSQSGI! $FHVVRHPGHMXQKRGH

)$2 )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ± )$267$7 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSIDRVWDWIDRRUJKRPHLQGH[KWPO9,68$/,=(B%<B'20$,1! $FHVVRHPGHIHYHUHLURGH

)$2 )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ± )$267$7 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSIDRVWDWIDRRUJIDRVWDWJDWHZD\JRWRGRZQORDG44$(! $FHVVRHPGHDEULOGH

(32)

)(55$=),/+23%5$026$$6,/9$/2&628=$-&$/(1&$5 0 0 $OWHUQDWLYH DQLPDO PRGHOV WR HVWLPDWH KHULWDELOLWLHV DQG JHQHWLF FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQGLUHFWDQGPDWHUQDOHIIHFWVRI3UHDQG3RVW:HDQLQJZHLJKWVRI7DEDSXm FDWWOH$UFKLYRV/DWLQRDPHULFDQRVGH3URGXFFLRQ$QLPDO0DUDFDLERYQ S

)(55$= - % 6 )(/Ë&,2 3 ( 3URGXFWLRQ V\VWHPV ± $Q H[DPSOH IURP %UD]LO 0HDW6FLHQFH/RXJKERURXJKYS

)5(,7$6$5/2,%(/60&$1'5$'(0*9$/-%50RGHODJHPGR FUHVFLPHQWR SRSXODFLRQDO GR UHEDQKR ERYLQR EUDVLOHLUR 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYS6XSOHPHQWRHVSHFLDO

)5(,7$6 *7DEDSXm FRQKHoDR ³]HEX EUDVLOHLUR´ FRPPXVFXODWXUDPDQVLGmRH

KDELOLGDGH PDWHUQD %HHI3RLQW 'LVSRQtYHO HP

KWWSZZZEHHISRLQWFRPEUFDGHLDSURGXWLYDUDFDVHJHQHWLFDWDEDSXDFRQKHFDR ]HEXEUDVLOHLURFRPPXVFXODWXUDPDQVLGDRHKDELOLGDGHPDWHUQDSURMHWRUDFDV! $FHVVRHPGHMXOKRGH

*21d$/9(670',$60$'$=(9('2-81,25-52'5,*8(=0$3 7,03$1, 9 ' 2/,9(,5$ $ , * &XUYDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR GH IrPHDV GD UDoD 1HORUHHVHXVFUX]DPHQWRV&LrQFLDH$JURWHFQRORJLD/DYUDVYQS

*5266,'$)5,==$62*3$=&&3%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25% 2/,9(,5$ - $ 081$5, ' 3 *HQHWLF DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ DFFXPXODWHG SURGXFWLYLW\DQGUHSURGXFWLYHDQGJURZWKWUDLWVLQ1HORUHFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH 2[IRUGYS

*5266,'$9(1785,1,*&3$=&&3%(=(55$/$)/2%25% 2/,9(,5$ -$ 081$5, ' 3*HQHWLF DVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQDJH DWILUVW FDOYLQJ DQGKHLIHUERG\ZHLJKWDQGVFURWDOFLUFXPIHUHQFHLQ1HORUHFDWWOH-RXUQDORI$QLPDO %UHHGLQJDQG*HQHWLFV-RNLRLQHQYS

*8,'2/,1'*)*583,21,19&+8'7&685%,1$7,,/Ð%25% %(=(55$/$)3$=&&3081$5,'3*HQHWLFDVVRFLDWLRQIRUJURZWK UHSURGXFWLYH DQG FDUFDVV WUDLWV LQ *X]HUi EHHI FDWWOH ,Q 3URFHHGLQJV RI WK :RU OG &RQJUHVV RQ *HQHWLFV $SSOLHG WR /LYHVWRFN SURGXFWLRQ /HLSL]LJ *HUPDQ\ 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSZZZNRQJUHVVEDQGGHZFJDOSDVVHWVSGISGI! $FHVVDGRHPGHMDQHLURGH

*87,e55(= 3 $/9$5(= , )(51È1'(= , 52<2 / 'Ë(= -*2<$&+( ) *HQHWLF UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ FDOYLQJ GDWH FDOYLQJ LQWHUYDO DJH DW ILUVWFDOYLQJDQGW\SHWUDLWVLQEHHIFDWWOH/LYHVWRFN3URGXFWLRQ6FLHQFH2[IRUGY S

(33)

*87,e55(= 3 *2<$&+( ) )(51È1'(= , $/9$5(= , 52<2 / -*HQHWLFUHODWLRQVKLSVDPRQJFDOYLQJHDVHFDOYLQJLQWHUYDOELUWKZHLJKWDQGZHDQLQJ ZHLJKWLQWKH$VWXULDQDGHORV9DOOHVEHHIFDWWOHEUHHG-RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH

&KDPSDLJQYS

/$&<5&$QDO\VLVRIIRXQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQLQSHGLJUHHVIRXQGHUHTXLYDOHQWDQG IRXQGHUJHQRPHHTXLYDOHQWV=RR%LRORJ\0DOGHQYQ๦S

/$85($12000%2/,*21$$&267$5%)251,66(9(52-/ 3 $/%848(548( / * (VWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH H WHQGrQFLDV JHQpWLFDV SDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR H UHSURGXWLYDV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH $UTXLYR%UDVLOHLURGH0HGLFLQD9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYQ S±

/Ð%2 5 % %(=(55$ / $ ) 2/,9(,5$ + 1 *$51(52 $ 9 6&+:(1*%(5(%0$5&21'(6&5$YDOLDomRJHQpWLFDGHDQLPDLVMRYHQV WRXURVHPDWUL]HV5LEHLUmR3UHWR8QLYHUVLGDGHGH6mR3DXOR*(0$&

0$*$f$ - * 6(*85$ - & +HULWDELOLW\ DQGIDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJJURZWK WUDLWV DQG DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ RI ]HEX EHHI KHLIHUV LQ VRXWKHDVWHUQ 0H[LFR7URSLFDO $QLPDO +HDOWKDQG3URGXFWLRQ(GLQEXUJKYS

0$,*1(/ / %2,&+$5' ' 9(55,(5 ( *HQHWLF YDULDELOLW\ RI )UHQFK GDLU\ EUHHGV HVWLPDWHG IURP SHGLJUHH LQIRUPDWLRQ,QWHUEXOO %XOOHWLQ 8SSVDOD Q๦ S

0$/+$'2&+0&$51(,523/60$57,16),/+25$=(9('2'0 0 5 )$&Ï 2 0$&+$'2 & + & 3,&&,1,1 $7HQGrQFLD H SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRVSDUDRSHVRDRVGLDVGHLGDGHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHPRFKRQR HVWDGRGD%DKLD5HYLVWD&LHQWtILFDGH3URGXomR$QLPDO7HUHVLQDYQS

0$/+$'2& + 0 &$51(,52 3 / 6 3(5(,5$' * 0$57,16 ),/+2 5 3URJUHVVRJHQpWLFRHHVWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDOGRUHEDQKR1HORUHQR(VWDGRGD%DKLD 3HVTXLVD$JURSHFXiULD%UDVLOHLUD%UDVtOLDYQS

0$/+$'2&+0&$51(,523/60$/+$'2$&00$57,16),/+2 5 %2==, 5 /$'/( 5 - *HQHWLF LPSURYHPHQW DQG SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH RI WKH 1HORUHEUHHGLQ1RUWKHUQ%UD]LO3HVTXLVD$JURSHFXiULD%UDVLOHLUD%UDVtOLDY QS

0È548(=*&63(,'(/6((11650*$55,&.'-*HQHWLFGLYHUVLW\ DQGSRSXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHRI$PHULFDQ5HG$QJXVFDWWOH-RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH &KDPSDLJQYS±

(34)

0(5&$'$17( 0 ( = /Ð%2 5 % 2/,9(,5$ + 1 (VWLPDWLYDV GH &R9DULkQFLDVHQWUHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHUHSURGXomRHGHFUHVFLPHQWRHPIrPHDVGH XPUHEDQKR1HORUH5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS

0,//(1 ' ' 3$&+(&2 5 ' / 0(<(5 3 0 52'5,*8(6 3 + 0 $55,*21, 0 % &XUUHQW RXWORRN DQG IXWXUH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI EHHI SURGXFWLRQ LQ %UD]LO$QLPDO)URQWLHUV&KDPSDLJQYQ

2/,9(,5$366$17$1$-Ò1,250/3('526$9%2/,9(,5$(&0 (/(5-3)(55$=-%6(VWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDOGHUHEDQKRIHFKDGRGDUDoD 1HORUHGDOLQKDJHP/HPJUXEHU3HVTXLVD$JURSHFXiULD%UDVLOHLUD%UDVtOLDY QS±

25(1*( - 6 . ,/$76,$ ( ' .26*(< , 6 .$+, $ . *HQHWLF DQG SKHQRW\SLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG DQQXDO WUHQGV IRU JURZWK DQG IHUWLOLW\ WUDLWV RI &KDURODLV DQG+HUHIRUGEHHIFDWWOHEUHHGVLQ.HQ\D7URSLFDO$QLPDO+HDOWKDQG3URGXFWLRQ (GLQEXUJKYS

3$1(72 - & & )(55$= - % 6 %$/,(,52 - & & %,77$5 - ) ) )(55(,5$ 0 % ' /(,7( 0 % 0(5,*+( * . ) 0(,5(//(6 ) 9 %RV LQGLFXVRU%RVWDXUXVPLWRFKRQGULDO'1$FRPSDULVRQRISURGXFWLYHDQGUHSURGXFWLYH EUHHGLQJ YDOXHV LQ D *X]HUDW GDLU\ KHUG*HQHWLFV DQG 0ROHFXODU 5HVHDUFK 5LEHLUmR3UHWRYQS±

3$1(772 - & & *87,e55(= - 3 )(55$= - % 6 &81+$ ' * *2/'(1%/DVVHVVPHQWRILQEUHHGLQJGHSUHVVLRQLQD*X]HUDWGDLU\KHUGHIIHFWV RI LQGLYLGXDO LQFUHDVH LQ LQEUHHGLQJ FRHIILFLHQWV RQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG UHSURGXFWLRQ -RXUQDORI'DLU\6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQYS±

3(/,&,21,/&081,=&$6'48(,52=6$$YDOLDomRGRGHVHPSHQKR DR SULPHLUR SDUWR GH IrPHDV 1HORUH H ) 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 3LUDFLFDEDYQS

3(5(,5$-&&5,%(,526+$6,/9$0$%(5*0$11-$*&267$ 0 ' $QiOLVH JHQpWLFD GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SRQGHUDLV H UHSURGXWLYDV GH IrPHDV ERYLQDV7DEDSXm$UTXLYR %UDVLOHLUR GH 0HGLFLQD 9HWHULQiULDH =RRWHFQLD %HOR +RUL]RQWHYS6XSOHPHQWRHVSHFLDO

48(,52= 6 $ $/%848(548( / * /$1=21, 1 $ (IHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD *LU QR %UDVLO5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD3LUDFLFDEDYQS±

(35)

5$1*(/$+1*8('(63/&$/%848(548(53)129$,6/3 /,0$-Ò1,25'0,QWHUYDORHQWUHSDUWRVHSHUtRGRGHVHUYLoRGHYDFDV*X]HUi 5HYLVWD9HUGH0RVVRUyYQS

5(6(1'(-93URGXomRGHFDUQH7HPSRGHDEDWHGHERYLQRVFDLSDUDPHQRVGH GRLV DQRV PDLV OXFUR H PHOKRU TXDOLGDGH 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSZZZDSWDVSJRYEUQRWLFLDVSKS"LG ! $FHVVR HP GH PDUoR GH

5,%(,52 6 + $ 3(5(,5$ - & & 9(51(48( 5 6 6,/9$ 0 $ %(5*0$11 - $ * 0$548(6 ) 6 (VWXGR JHQpWLFRTXDQWLWDWLYR GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR QD UDoD 7DEDSXm$UTXLYR %UDVLOHLUR GH 0HGLFLQD 9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYQS

52.28(, 0 7256+,=, 5 9 6+$+5%$%$. 0 0 6$5*2/=$(, 0 6‘5(16(1 $ & 0RQLWRULQJ LQEUHHGLQJ WUHQGV DQG LQEUHHGLQJ GHSUHVVLRQ IRU HFRQRPLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW WUDLWV RI +ROVWHLQ FDWWOH LQ ,UDQ-RXUQDO RI 'DLU\ 6FLHQFH &KDPSDLJQYQS±

526$ $ 1 9DULDELOLGDGH IHQRWtSLFD H JHQpWLFD GR SHVR DGXOWR H GD SURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGDGHPDWUL]HVHPUHEDQKRVGHVHOHomRGDUDoD1HORUH QR %UDVLO I 'LVVHUWDomR 'RXWRUDGR HP &LrQFLDV )DFXOGDGH GH 0HGLFLQDGH5LEHLUmR3UHWR8QLYHUVLGDGHGH6mR3DXOR5LEHLUmR3UHWR

6$17$1$ -5 0 / 2/,9(,5$ 3 6 3('526$ 9 % (/(5 - 3 *52(1(9(/' ( )(55$= - % 6 (IIHFW RI LQEUHHGLQJ RQ JURZWK DQG UHSURGXFWLYHWUDLWVRI1HOORUHFDWWOHLQ%UD]LO/LYHVWRFN6FLHQFH2[IRUGYS

6$17¶$11$ $ & 3$5$1+26 '$ &267$ 0 - 5 %$/', ) 58('$ 3 0 $/%848(548(/**HQHWLFDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQÀLJKWVSHHGDQGJURZWKWUDLWV LQ 1HOORUH FDWWOH -RXUQDO RI $QLPDO 6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQ Y S ±

6&+:(1*%(5(%%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25%3URGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD FRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomRHPIrPHDVGDUDoD1HORUH&LrQFLD5XUDO6DQWD0DULDY QS

6&+(1.(/)6/$*,2,$'55,%2/',-1tYHLVGHHQGRJDPLDHGHSUHVVmR HQGRJkPLFDQRJDQKRGHSHVRGHUDoDV]HEXtQDVQREUDVLO,Q$QDLVGR,96LPSyVLR 1DFLRQDO GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO 9LoRVD $QDLV HOHWU{QLFRV GR ,9 6LPSyVLR 1DFLRQDO GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO 9LoRVD 8)9 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSVEPDRQOLQHRUJEUDQDLVLYWUDEDOKRV!$FHVVRHPPDU

(36)

6(*85$&255($ - & &+,1&2//, 5 & 0$*$f$021)257( - * 1Òf(='20Ë1*8(= 5 *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUVIRUELUWK ZHLJKW ZHDQLQJ ZHLJKW DQG DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ LQ %URZQ 6ZLVV FDWWOH LQ 0H[LFR7URSLFDO $QLPDO +HDOWK DQG 3URGXFWLRQ(GLQEXUJKYS

6(1$-660$726$60$5&21'(6&5%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25 % 3DUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV WHQGrQFLDV H UHVSRVWD j VHOHomR GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SURGXWLYDV GD UDoD 1HORUH QD $PD]{QLD /HJDO$WDV GH 6D~GH$PELHQWDO 6mR 3DXORYQS

6286$0)$0$57,16),/+256286$-Ò1,256&)216&(&$:-/ 6286$ * * 7 6286$0)$0$57,16),/+256286$-Ò1,256&)216&(&$:-/8= & 6 0 %$5526 -81,25 & 3 $5$8-2 $ & $5$Ò-2-,0(VWLPDWLRQRISKHQRW\SLFDQGJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVDQGJHQHWLFWUHQG RI ZHLJKWV LQ WKH ZHDQLQJ SKDVH 3 ZHLJKW DW RQH \HDU 3 WKH \HDUOLQJ 3 LQ 1HOORUH FDWWOH LQ WKH 1RUWKHUQ UHJLRQ DQG 8QGHU5HJLRQ 0LGGOH1RUWK RI %UD]LO-RXUQDORI$JULFXOWXUDO6FLHQFH7RURQWRYQS±

628=$ 0 & $ )(55$= ),/+2 3 % 6,/9$ / 2 & 628=$ - & 0$/+$'2 & + 0 (IHLWRV JHQpWLFRV H DPELHQWDLV VREUH SHVRV j GHVPDPD GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH PRFKD QD UHJLmR SHFXiULD 2HVWH 6mR 3DXOR ± 3DUDQi $UFKLYHVRI9HWHULQDU\6FLHQFH&XULWLEDYQS

628=$-&6,/9$/2&*21'2$)5(,7$6-$0$/+$'2&+0 ),/+2 3 % ) 6(5(12 - 5 % :($%(5 5 / 3DUkPHWURV H WHQGrQFLD JHQpWLFD GH SHVR GH ERYLQRV FULDGRV i SDVWR QR %UDVLO$UFKLYRV GH =RRWHFQLD &yUGREDYQS±

9(5*$5$ 2 ' (/=2 0 $ &(5Ï108f2= 0 ) *HQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV DQG JHQHWLF WUHQGV IRU DJH DW ILUVW FDOYLQJ DQG FDOYLQJ LQWHUYDO LQ DQ $QJXV%ODQFR 2UHMLQHJUR=HEX PXOWLEUHHG FDWWOH SRSXODWLRQ LQ &RORPELD /LYHVWRFN 6FLHQFH 2[IRUGYS±

:5,*+76&RHIILFLHQWVRILQEUHHGLQJDQGUHODWLRQVKLS7KH $PHULFDQ1DWXUDOLVW &KLFDJRYQS±

:5,*+76(YROXWLRQLQ0HQGHOLDQSRSXODWLRQV*HQHWLFV%HWKHVGDYQS ±

=8,15*%8=$16.$60(&$(7$126/9(1785,1,*&*8,'2/,1 '*)*5266,'$&+8'7&63$=&&3/Ð%25%081$5,' 3 *HQHWLF DQDO\VLV RQ JURZWK DQG FDUFDVV WUDLWV LQ 1HORUH FDWWOH0HDW 6FLHQFH

(37)

&$3Ë78/2 ± (6758785$ 3238/$&,21$/ '$ 5$d$ 7$%$38­ 87,/,=$1'2$1È/,6('(3(',*5((

5(6802±'XUDQWHRGHVHQYROYLPHQWRGDUDoDGHERYLQRVGHFRUWH7DEDSXm KRXYH LQWHQVD XWLOL]DomR GH DSHQDV XP UHSURGXWRU SDUD D IRUPDomR GRV UHEDQKRV $VVLPpSUHFLVRPRQLWRUDURJUDXGHHQGRJDPLDQDSRSXODomRFXMDVFRQVHTXrQFLDV VmR D SHUGD HP YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD H TXHGD GR GHVHPSHQKR ]RRWpFQLFR (VWH WUDEDOKR WHYH FRPR REMHWLYR DYDOLDU D HVWUXWXUD SRSXODFLRQDO H D UHODomR OLQHDU GH FODVVHVGHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDFRPDVPpGLDVGRVYDORUHVIHQRWtSLFRVGHSHVR DRGHVPDPHDMXVWDGRSDUDGLDVGHLGDGH3LGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWR,33 LQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV,3HSURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD3$&)RUDPXWLOL]DGRVUHJLVWURV IHQRWtSLFRV GH YDFDV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm SHUWHQFHQWHV DR 3URJUDPD GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR *HQpWLFR GD 5DoD 7DEDSXm 30*57 PDQWLGR SHOD $VVRFLDomR 1DFLRQDO GH &ULDGRUHV H 3HVTXLVDGRUHV $1&3 2 DUTXLYR GH SHGLJUHH FRQWLQKD DQLPDLV $ PpGLD GH LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH REVHUYDGD QDV ~OWLPDV JHUDo}HVIRLLJXDOD2Q~PHURGHJHUDo}HVFRPSOHWDPi[LPDHHTXLYDOHQWH IRLLJXDODHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH2Q~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVIRLLJXDOD H R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV IRL LJXDO D VHQGR D UD]mR HQWUH DPERV LJXDO D R TXH LQGLFD DXVrQFLD GH HIHLWR GH JDUJDOR JHQpWLFR SDUD HVWD SRSXODomR2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDPpGLRIRLGHHREVHUYRXVHDXPHQWR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR SDUHQWHVFR PpGLR H SRUFHQWDJHP GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV (QWUH RV DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV YHULILFRXVH UHGXomR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR H REVHUYRXVH SHTXHQR WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR SDUD D ~OWLPD JHUDomR $ UHJUHVVmR VREUH FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDIRLQmRVLJQLILFDWLYDS!SDUD3,33,3H3$&2 DXPHQWR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR H R SHTXHQR WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR SDUD D ~OWLPD JHUDomR LQGLFRX TXH GHYHVH HYLWDU R DFDVDODPHQWR HQWUH DQLPDLV DSDUHQWDGRV H R XVR LQWHQVLYR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV $V DQiOLVHV GH UHJUHVVmR OLQHDU HQWUH PpGLD GH YDORUHV IHQRWtSLFRV H FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLDLQGLFDUDPTXHDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVQmRVRIUHUDPGHSUHVVmRHQGRJkPLFD

3DODYUDVFKDYH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH HQGRJDPLD LQWHJULGDGH GH SHGLJUHH Q~PHUR HIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVWDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR

(38)

,1752'8d­2

$ UDoD GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH 7DEDSXm SRVVXL D UXVWLFLGDGH GRV ]HEXtQRV H p RULJLQDULDPHQWH PRFKD R TXH HYLWD OHV}HV HQWUH RV DQLPDLV H SHVVRDV HP DPELHQWHV GH PDQHMR 6$17,$*2 1R SHUtRGR HQWUH H KRXYH DXPHQWR GH UHJLVWURV GHILQLWLYRV GH DQLPDLV GHVVD UDoD $%&= 2 7DEDSXmIRLRILFLDOL]DGRFRPRXPDUDoDQRSDtVHPHIRLIRUPDGDSRUPHLRGR FUX]DPHQWR HQWUH IrPHDV GD UDoD 1HORUH FRP UHSURGXWRU PHVWLoR GH PRFKR QDFLRQDO*LUH*X]HUi$QLPDLVQDVFLGRVDQWHVGHVWDGDWDHUDPFRQVLGHUDGRVFRPR QRYR WLSR GH JDGR LQGLDQR (PERUD D UDoD WHQKD VLGR D SULPHLUD GRV QHR]HEXtQRV IRUPDGD SRU SODQHMDPHQWR ]RRWpFQLFR $%&7 WRGR R UHEDQKR DWXDO GHVFHQGHX GH DSHQDV XP PDFKR FDUDFWHUL]DQGR D XQLIRUPLGDGH REVHUYDGD QRV UHEDQKRV3RUWDQWRRIDWRGHDSHQDVXPUHSURGXWRUWHUVLGRDEDVHGDIRUPDomRGD UDoDSRGHUHVXOWDUHPGLPLQXLomRGDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDSRSXODomR

2XWURIDWRUTXHSRGHGLPLQXLUDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDHFRQVHTXHQWHPHQWH DXPHQWDU R JUDX GH HQGRJDPLD GD SRSXODomR p R XVR GH ELRWHFQRORJLDV GH UHSURGXomR FRPR LQVHPLQDomR DUWLILFLDO QDWXUDO H HP WHPSR IL[R WUDQVIHUrQFLD GH HPEULmRHIHUWLOL]DomRLQYLWURTXHVmRXWLOL]DGDVQRVLVWHPDGHSURGXomREUDVLOHLUR

$OJXPDV GHVWDV ELRWHFQRORJLDV SHUPLWHP R DXPHQWR QR Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV SURGX]LGRVQRUHEDQKRFRPLVVRSRVVLELOLWDPDUHGXomRQRLQWHUYDORGHJHUDo}HVH R DXPHQWR GD LQWHQVLGDGH GH VHOHomR DPSOLDQGR DVVLP R JDQKR JHQpWLFR GR UHEDQKR 1R HQWDQWRR DXPHQWR QD LQWHQVLGDGHGH VHOHomR UHVWULQJH R Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV D VHUHP XWLOL]DGRV FRPR UHSURGXWRUHV IDWRU TXH GHYH VHU ULJRURVDPHQWH FRQWURODGR GHYLGR DR SRVVtYHO DXPHQWR QD HQGRJDPLD H FRQVHTXHQWH UHGXomR QD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFD3(5(,5$

(39)

GLILFXOGDGH GH SDUWR SDUD YDFDV +RODQGHVDV GHYLGR DRV HIHLWRV GD HQGRJDPLD $VVLP R DXPHQWR GD HQGRJDPLD H FRQVHTXHQWH HIHLWR QHJDWLYR HP GHVHPSHQKRV IHQRWtSLFRVGHYHPVHUDFRPSDQKDGRVHPSURJUDPDVGHVHOHomR

2REMHWLYRGHVWHHVWXGRIRLDYDOLDUDHVWUXWXUDSRSXODFLRQDOGHXPDSRSXODomR GHERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXmXWLOL]DQGRLQIRUPDo}HVGHSHGLJUHHDILPGHYHULILFDUDV FRQVHTXrQFLDV GD XWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV QD YDULDELOLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR DOpP GD HQGRJDPLD H VHXV HIHLWRV QR GHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFRGRVDQLPDLV

0$7(5,$/(0e72'26

'HVFULomRGRFRQMXQWRGHGDGRV

1HVWH HVWXGR IRUDP XWLOL]DGRV RV UHJLVWURV IHQRWtSLFRV GH YDFDV QDVFLGDV HQWUH D H R SHGLJUHH GH DQLPDLV GD UDoD 7DEDSXm QDVFLGRVHQWUHDSHUWHQFHQWHVDSURSULHGDGHVGRHVWDGRGH6mR3DXOR %DKLD0LQDV*HUDLV0DWR*URVVRGR6XO0DWR*URVVR*RLiV7RFDQWLQVH3DUDQi 2 FRQMXQWR GHGDGRV IRL REWLGRV MXQWR DR 3URJUDPD GH 0HOKRUDPHQWR *HQpWLFR GD 5DoD 7DEDSXm 30*57 PDQWLGR SHOD $VVRFLDomR 1DFLRQDO GH &ULDGRUHV H 3HVTXLVDGRUHV $1&3 'R WRWDO GH UHJLVWURV GDGRV QmR SRVVXtUDP LQIRUPDomRJHQHDOyJLFDGHSDLHPmHDQLPDLVQmRSRVVXtUDPLQIRUPDomRVREUH RSDLHQmRSRVVXtUDPLQIRUPDomRVREUHDPmH

(40)

2VSDUkPHWURVSRSXODFLRQDLVIRUDPHVWLPDGRVXWLOL]DQGRRSURJUDPD(1'2* *87,e55(=*2<$&+((VWHSURJUDPDH[LJHDQXPHUDomRVHTXHQFLDO GR SHGLJUHH D TXDO IRL UHDOL]DGD SRU PHLR GR SURJUDPD &)& 6$5*2/=$(, ,:$,6$.,&2//($8

,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH

$LQWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHHSHUPLWHLGHQWLILFDURTXDQWRGRSHGLJUHHHPFDGD JHUDomR HVWi FRPSOHWR 2 Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV IRL FDOFXODGR GH WUrV PDQHLUDV Q~PHURGHJHUDo}HVFRPSOHWDVREWLGRSHORQ~PHURGHJHUDo}HVHPTXHDPERVRV SDLV VmR FRQKHFLGRV Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV Pi[LPDV REWLGR SHOR Q~PHUR WRWDO GH JHUDo}HV SRVVtYHLV VHQGR RV SDLV FRQKHFLGRV RX QmR H Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV

HTXLYDOHQWHV FDOFXODGR SHOR VRPDWyULR GHͳ ʹ

HP TXH p R Q~PHUR GH

JHUDo}HV TXH R LQGLYtGXR p VHSDUDGR GH FDGD DQFHVWUDO GR TXDO VH WHP UHJLVWUR FRQKHFLGR0$,*1(/%2,&+$5'9(55,(5

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV

5HSURGXWRUHV TXH SRVVXHP SDL H PmH GHVFRQKHFLGR VmR FRQVLGHUDGRV IXQGDGRUHV 2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV ௘ p GHWHUPLQDGR SHOR Q~PHUR HVSHUDGR GH UHSURGXWRUHV FRP SDL H PmH GHVFRQKHFLGRV IXQGDGRUHV TXH FRQWULEXLQGR LJXDOPHQWH FRP PDWHULDO JHQpWLFR SDUD IRUPDU D SRSXODomR UHSUHVHQWDPWRGDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGD/$&<(VWH

SDUkPHWURpFDOFXODGRSRU௘ ൌ ͳ

∑ ௞ଶ ௙ ௞ୀଵ

HPTXH௞pDSUREDELOLGDGHGHRULJHP

GRJHQHGR±௦௜௠௢DQFHVWUDO

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV

2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV ௔ p GHWHUPLQDGR SHOR Q~PHUR PtQLPR GH DQFHVWUDLV IXQGDGRUHV RX QmR TXH H[SOLFDP D GLYHUVLGDGH JHQpWLFD GD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD %2,&+$5' 0$,*1(/ 9(55,(5 (VWH SDUkPHWUR p FDOFXODGR

SRU௔ ൌ ͳ ∑ ௝ ଶ ௔ ௝ୀଵ

(41)

DFRQWULEXLomRPDUJLQDODFRQWULEXLomRJHQpWLFDDGLFLRQDOIHLWDSRUXPDQFHVWUDOTXH QmRIRLH[SOLFDGDSRURXWURDQFHVWUDOHVFROKLGRSDUDRFiOFXORDQWHULRUPHQWH

5D]mRHQWUHRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVHRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGH

DQFHVWUDLV

$ UD]mR HQWUH R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV H R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH

DQFHVWUDLV ௘

௔ SHUPLWH LGHQWLILFDU VH D XWLOL]DomR GH UHSURGXWRUHV SURPRYH

SRVVtYHOHIHLWRGHJDUJDORJHQpWLFR2YDORULJXDORXSUy[LPRDLQGLFDTXHRHIHLWR GH JDUJDOR JHQpWLFR QmR FDUDFWHUL]D D SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD HQTXDQWR TXH YDORUHV PXLWR EDL[RV GH Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV FRPSDUDGR DR Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHVLQGLFDHIHLWRGHJDUJDORJHQpWLFRSDUDDSRSXODomR

3DUkPHWURV SRSXODFLRQDLV UHODFLRQDGRV FRP FRHILFLHQWH GH

HQGRJDPLD

&RHILFLHQWHGHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLR

2 FRHILFLHQWH GH SDUHQWHVFR PpGLR :5,*+7 p GHILQLGR FRPR D SUREDELOLGDGH GH TXHXPDOHORHVFROKLGRDR DFDVR HQWUH WRGD D SRSXODomR VHMDGH GHWHUPLQDGRDQLPDO1XPHULFDPHQWHRSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRFRUUHVSRQGHDGXDVYH]HV DSUREDELOLGDGHGHGRLVDOHORVDOHDWyULRVXPGRDQLPDOHRXWURGHWRGDSRSXODomR VHUHPLGrQWLFRVSRUGHVFHQGrQFLDHSRGHVHULQWHUSUHWDGRFRPRDUHSUHVHQWDomRGH XP GDGR DQLPDO HP WRGR R SHGLJUHH LQGHSHQGHQWHPHQWH GR FRQKHFLPHQWR GH VHX SUySULRSHGLJUHH'811(5HWDO(VWHSDUkPHWURpFDOFXODGRFRPRDPpGLD GRV FRHILFLHQWHV GD OLQKD FRUUHVSRQGHQWH DR LQGLYtGXR QR QXPHUDGRU GD PDWUL] GH SDUHQWHVFR$ XWLOL]DQGR PpWRGR PRGLILFDGR GHPRQVWUDGR SRU *XWLpUUH] &DxRQ H 5LFR $ PDWUL] GH SDUHQWHVFR GHVWH HVWXGR LQFOXLX DQLPDLV VHQGR PDFKRVHIrPHDV

&RHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD

(42)

DOJRULWPRGHVHQYROYLGRSRU0HXZLVVHQH/XR2DXPHQWRGHHQGRJDPLDSRU

JHUDomR IRL FDOFXODGR SRU οൌ ௧െ௧ିଵ

ͳ െ௧ିଵ HP TXH ௧ H ௧ିଵ p D

HQGRJDPLDPpGLDQD±௦௜௠௔H±௦௜௠௔ିଵJHUDomR:5,*+7

7DPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR

2 WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR R TXDO UHSUHVHQWD R Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV TXHFRQWULEXLQGRLJXDOPHQWHSDUDDSUy[LPDJHUDomRSURPRYHULDRPHVPRDXPHQWR GH HQGRJDPLD REVHUYDGR QD SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD :5,*+7 IRL FDOFXODGR

SRU௘ൌ ͳ ʹο

(IHLWRVGDHQGRJDPLDQRGHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFR

3DUD FDGD FRQMXQWR GH GDGRV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH 3 ,33 3$& H ,3 IRUDP REVHUYDGDV DV PpGLDV H YDORUHV PtQLPRV H Pi[LPRV GRV FRHILFLHQWHV GH HQGRJDPLDFDOFXODGRV$UHODomROLQHDUGHFODVVHVGHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDFRP D PpGLD GRV YDORUHV IHQRWtSLFRV SDUD DV PHVPDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV IRL YHULILFDGD SRU PHLR GD DQiOLVH GH UHJUHVVmR OLQHDU XWLOL]DQGR R SURJUDPD 6$6 6$6 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH &DU\ 1& 86$ HP TXH D YDULiYHO LQGHSHQGHQWH IRUDP DV FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDHDYDULiYHOGHSHQGHQWHIRLDPpGLDIHQRWtSLFDSDUDFDGD FODVVH$KLSyWHVHGHTXHRFRHILFLHQWHGHUHJUHVVmRIRVVHLJXDOD]HURIRLWHVWDGD XWLOL]DQGRDHVWDWtVWLFDW

(43)

DPHWDGR30*57SDUDLGDGHDRSULPHLURSDUWRpGHPHVHV$DQiOLVHGHVFULWLYD SDUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHQFRQWUDVHQD7DEHOD

7DEHOD1~PHURGHDQLPDLV1PpGLDGHYDORUHVIHQRWtSLFRVGHVYLRSDGUmR'3 SDUDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVWXGDGDVHPERYLQRVGDUDoD7DEDSXm

&DUDFWHUtVWLFD 1 0pGLD '3

3NJ

,33PHVHV

,30GLDV

,3GLDV

,3GLDV

3$&NJGHEH]HUURYDFDDQR

3 SHVR DR GHVPDPH DMXVWDGR SDUD GLDV GH LGDGH ,33 LGDGH DR SULPHLUR SDUWR ,30 LQWHUYDORGHSDUWRVPpGLR,3 SULPHLURLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV,3 VHJXQGRLQWHUYDORGHSDUWRV

3$& SURGXWLYLGDGHDFXPXODGD

5(68/7$'26(',6&866­2

,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH

$ )LJXUD FRQWpP D TXDQWLGDGH GH LQIRUPDomR GH SHGLJUHH SRU JHUDomR VHQGRDSULPHLUDJHUDomRUHSUHVHQWDGDSHORVDQLPDLVPDLVYHOKRVHD~OWLPDSHORV DQLPDLVPDLVMRYHQV2EVHUYRXVHYDULDomRGH[DGHLQIRUPDomRHQWUHD SULPHLUDH~OWLPDJHUDomRHPpGLDGHGHTXDQWLGDGHGHLQIRUPDomRSDUDDV VHLV~OWLPDVJHUDo}HVUHSUHVHQWDGDVSRUDQLPDLVTXHQDVFHUDPHQWUHD *HUDo}HVDQWHULRUHVjVVHLV~OWLPDVJHUDo}HVDSUHVHQWDUDPLQIRUPDomRGHSHGLJUHH LQIHULRUjPpGLDGDVVHLV~OWLPDVJHUDo}HVHYLGHQFLDQGRDHVFDVVH]GHLQIRUPDomR QRSHGLJUHHGRVDQLPDLVPDLVDQWLJRV2VUHJLVWURVJHQHDOyJLFRVGHDQLPDLVFRPR WLSR7DEDSXmLQLFLDUDPVHHPSRVVtYHOPRWLYRSHODDXVrQFLDGHLQIRUPDo}HV GH DQLPDLV QDVFLGRV DQWHULRUPHQWH D HVWD GDWD 6$17,$*2 &DLUHV HW DO HVWXGDUDPDQLPDLVGDPHVPDUDoDHWDPEpPHQFRQWUDUDPQ~PHURUHGX]LGR GHUHJLVWURVGHSHGLJUHHQDVJHUDo}HVPDLVDQWLJDV

(44)

UHVXOWDGRV SHUPLWH LGHQWLILFDU D LQWHJULGDGH GDV LQIRUPDo}HV QR SHGLJUHH 3DUD D SRSXODomR HVWXGDGD REVHUYRXVH JUDQGH GLIHUHQoD GR PDLRU Q~PHUR GH JHUDo}HV FRPSOHWDV H Pi[LPDV DVVLP REVHUYDVH DXVrQFLD GH LQIRUPDo}HV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV IDWR FRQILUPDGR SHOR EDL[R YDORU Pi[LPR GH JHUDo}HV HTXLYDOHQWHV 6DQWDQD -U HW DO H 'DQFKLQ%XUJH HW DO HVWXGDUDP SRSXODo}HV GH ERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHHERYLQRVGHOHLWHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHHVXJHULUDPTXHDIDOWD GHLQIRUPDomRQRSHGLJUHHSRGHFDXVDUVXEHVWLPDomRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLD FDOFXODGR SDUD RV DQLPDLV PDLV DQWLJRV DVVLP FRPR D PpGLD GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLDSDUDWRGDSRSXODomR

)LJXUD,QWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHHDRORQJRGHJHUDo}HVREWLGDVSHORFiOFXORGH

JHUDomRPi[LPDSDUDDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGDGHERYLQRV7DEDSXm

1~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHV

$SRSXODomRHVWXGDGDDSUHVHQWRXQRWRWDOUHSURGXWRUHVFRPSDLHPmH GHVFRQKHFLGRVIXQGDGRUHVVHQGRPDFKRVHIrPHDV$FRQWULEXLomRGRV IXQGDGRUHV SDUD D YDULDELOLGDGH GD SRSXODomR YDULRX GH D 2EVHUYRXVH TXH D PDLRU FRQWULEXLomR FRPR IXQGDGRU SDUD D YDULDELOLGDGH GD SRSXODomR IRL GH XP PDFKR 'HQWUH DV IrPHDV IRL D PDLRU FRQWULEXLomR REVHUYDGD$GLIHUHQoDHQWUHDVFRQWULEXLo}HVSRGHVHUGHYLGRDLQWHQVLYDXWLOL]DomR GHSRXFRVPDFKRVSDUDDUHSURGXomRHGHYLGRDDPSOLWXGHREVHUYDGDQDGDWDGH

Ϭ Ϭ͕ϭ Ϭ͕Ϯ Ϭ͕ϯ Ϭ͕ϰ Ϭ͕ϱ Ϭ͕ϲ Ϭ͕ϳ Ϭ͕ϴ Ϭ͕ϵ

ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ ϵ ϭϬ ϭϭ ϭϮ ϭϯ ϭϰ ϭϱ ϭϲ

,Q

WH

J

UL

G

D

G

H

G

H

S

H

G

LJ

UH

H

(45)

QDVFLPHQWRGRVIXQGDGRUHVTXHYDULRXGHDXPDYH]TXHRVDQLPDLV QDVFLGRVDWpFRQWULEXtUDPFRP3HL[RWRHWDOLGHQWLILFDUDPTXH DPDLRUFRQWULEXLomRSDUDDYDULDELOLGDGHGDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRVGDUDoD*X]HUi WDPEpPIRLGHXPPDFKRGHFRQWULEXLomR

2Q~PHURHIHWLYRGHIXQGDGRUHVIRLLJXDODHDHQGRJDPLDHVSHUDGDSDUD D SRSXODomR FRQVLGHUDQGR DSHQDV D FRQWULEXLomR GHVEDODQFHDGD GRV IXQGDGRUHV VHPDDWXDomRGHSURFHVVRVGHVHOHomRIRLLJXDOD2Q~PHURUHGX]LGRGH IXQGDGRUHVPDFKRVTXDQGRFRPSDUDGRDRGHIrPHDVHYLGHQFLRXLQWHQVDXWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV IDWR FRQILUPDGR DR REVHUYDU TXH R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV IRL PXLWR PHQRU TXDQGR FRPSDUDGR FRP R Q~PHUR WRWDO GH UHSURGXWRUHV FRP SDL H PmH GHVFRQKHFLGRV IXQGDGRUHV VHQGR SRXFRV DQLPDLVUHVSRQViYHLVSRUWRGDDYDULDELOLGDGHGDSRSXODomR

2 Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHV REWLGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR HVWi HQWUH RV YDORUHVREVHUYDGRVSRU9HUFHVL)LOKRHWDODHPHVWXGRFRPDQLPDLVGDUDoD 7DEDSXm HP TXDWUR GLIHUHQWHV SHUtRGRV GH GXUDomR GH DQRV FDGD TXHYDULRXGHDIXQGDGRUHVHIHWLYRV&DLUHVHWDOREWLYHUDPYDORUGH IXQGDGRUHV HIHWLYRV SDUD ERYLQRV GD PHVPD UDoD (VWHV DXWRUHV REVHUYDUDP HQGRJDPLD HVSHUDGD LJXDO D SHOD XWLOL]DomR GHVEDODQFHDGD GH IXQGDGRUHV (VWH YDORU IRL LQIHULRU DR REWLGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR 1~PHUR HIHWLYR GH IXQGDGRUHVREVHUYDGRVSDUDDVUDoDV,QGXEUDVLO*LUH1HORUHIRUDPVXSHULRUHVDR GHVWHWUDEDOKRYDULDQGRGHDGHHGHDDQLPDLVSDUDDVWUrV UDoDV UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 9(5&(6, ),/+2 HW DO E 0$/+$'2 HW DO %5,72HWDO$VGLIHUHQoDVHQWUHHVWHVYDORUHVHQFRQWUDGRVQDOLWHUDWXUDHR GR SUHVHQWH WUDEDOKR SRGHP VHU RFDVLRQDGDV SHOD UHFHQWH IRUPDomR GD UDoD 7DEDSXm

1~PHUR HIHWLYR GH DQFHVWUDLV H UD]mR HQWUH R Q~PHUR HIHWLYR GH

IXQGDGRUHVHRQ~PHURHIHWLYRGHDQFHVWUDLV

(46)

DQFHVWUDLV

௔ LJXDODTXHLQGLFRXTXHDYDULDELOLGDGHGHVWDSRSXODomRQmR

IRLLQIOXHQFLDGDSHORHIHLWRGHJDUJDORJHQpWLFRRTXDOWDPEpPQmRIRLLGHQWLILFDGR SRU9HUFHVL)LOKRDSDUDXPDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRVGDPHVPDUDoD3HL[RWR HW DO UHODWDUDP UD]mR GH SDUD XPD SRSXODomR GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD *X]HUi TXH DSUHVHQWRX PDLRU Q~PHUR GH IXQGDGRUHV TXDQGR FRPSDUDGR DR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR SRGHQGR FRQFOXLU SRVVtYHO SUHVHQoD GH JDUJDOR JHQpWLFR FDUDFWHUL]DQGRHVWDSRSXODomR

3DUkPHWURV SRSXODFLRQDLV UHODFLRQDGRV FRP FRHILFLHQWH GH

HQGRJDPLD

2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDPpGLRSDUDDSRSXODomRHVWXGDGDIRLGHH VXDYDULDomRGHDFRUGRFRPDGDWDGHQDVFLPHQWRGRVDQLPDLVHVWiUHSUHVHQWDGDQD )LJXUD2DXPHQWRGDHQGRJDPLDSRUJHUDomRFRPSOHWDIRLGHSRUJHUDomR Pi[LPD IRL GH H SRU JHUDomR HTXLYDOHQWH GH 2 FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR REVHUYDGR QmR p DOWR H IRL LQIHULRU DR GH SRSXODo}HV GDV UDoDV 1HORUH *LU H *X]HUi HVWXGDGDV SRU )DULD HW DO $ IDOWD GH LQIRUPDomR QR SHGLJUHH SRGH WHU LQIOXHQFLDGR QR YDORU REWLGR FRPR Mi REVHUYDGR SRU %RLFKDUG 0DLJQHO H 9HUULHU TXH DILUPDUDP TXH PHVPR FRP XPD SURSRUomR PXLWR SHTXHQD GH SHGLJUHH GHVFRQKHFLGR R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD SRGH VHU VXEHVWLPDGR $OpP GLVVR DOJXQV PpWRGRV GH VHOHomR TXH IDYRUHFHP LQGLYtGXRV DSDUHQWDGRV SDUD VHUHP UHSURGXWRUHV GD SUy[LPD JHUDomR H WpFQLFDV FRPR LQVHPLQDomR DUWLILFLDO TXH SRGHP IDYRUHFHU LQWHQVLYD XWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV VmR XWLOL]DGDV D PDLV WHPSR SDUD UDoDV FRPR 1HORUH *LU H *X]HUi FRPSDUDGD D UDoD 7DEDSXm IDYRUHFHQGR R DXPHQWR GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD SDUDHVWDVUDoDVGHIRUPDomRPDLVDQWLJD

(47)

)LJXUD0pGLDGHFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDSRUDQRGHQDVFLPHQWRGHERYLQRVGD

UDoD7DEDSXm

2VDQLPDLVFRPDQRGHQDVFLPHQWRPDLVDQWLJRQmRSRVVXtDPLQIRUPDomRGH SHGLJUHH VXILFLHQWH SDUD FDOFXODU R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD VHQGR TXH VRPHQWH DQLPDLVTXHQDVFHUDPDSDUWLUGHSRVVXtDPDOJXPDLQIRUPDomRREVHUYDGRQD LQWHJULGDGHGHSHGLJUHH2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDDXPHQWRXDSDUWLUGHDQR HP TXH KRXYH R UHFRQKHFLPHQWR RILFLDO GD UDoD 7DEDSXm SRVVLYHOPHQWH SURPRYHQGR PDLRU GLVVHPLQDomR GD FULDomR GD UDoD SHORV SURGXWRUHV TXH YDORUL]DYDPUHSURGXWRUHVYHQFHGRUHVHPH[SRVLo}HV

2FRHILFLHQWHPpGLRGHHQGRJDPLDDSRUFHQWDJHPGHDQLPDLVHQGRJkPLFRV R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD SDUD RV DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV R WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR H R SDUHQWHVFR PpGLR SRU JHUDomR HVWmR GHPRQVWUDGRV QD 7DEHOD 7RUQDVHHYLGHQWHRDXPHQWRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLRDR ORQJRGDVJHUDo}HVDVVLPFRPRRDXPHQWRGHDQLPDLVHQGRJkPLFRVQDSRSXODomR TXHSRGHPVHUFRQVHTXrQFLDGDGLVVHPLQDomRGDUDoDHQWUHRVSURGXWRUHVVRPDGD DLQFOXVmRDRORQJRGDVJHUDo}HVGHXWLOL]DomRGHSRXFRVUHSURGXWRUHVHPFHQWUDLV GH LQVHPLQDomR DUWLILFLDO 2 DXPHQWR GD HQGRJDPLD DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV Mi IRL UHODWDGRSDUDGLIHUHQWHVUDoDV$/$7,<$7)$5,$HWDO5(,6),/+2HW DO 3(,;272 HW DO HP RXWURV HVWXGRV H SDUD D UDoD 7DEDSXm 9(5&(6, ),/+2 HW DO  &$,5(6 HW DO FRP YDORUHV VHPHOKDQWHV GH FRHILFLHQWHVGHHQGRJDPLDDRVREWLGRVQRSUHVHQWHHVWXGR

Ϭ Ϭ͕ϬϬϮ Ϭ͕ϬϬϰ Ϭ͕ϬϬϲ Ϭ͕ϬϬϴ Ϭ͕Ϭϭ Ϭ͕ϬϭϮ Ϭ͕Ϭϭϰ

&

R

H

IL

F

LH

Q

WH

G

H

H

Q

G

R

J

D

P

LD

P

p

G

LR

(48)

7DEHOD1~PHURGHDQLPDLVSRUJHUDomR1FRHILFLHQWHPpGLRGHHQGRJDPLD) SRUFHQWDJHP GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR QRVDQLPDLVHQGRJkPLFRVHSDUHQWHVFRPpGLR$5SRUJHUDomRFRPSOHWD SDUDDSRSXODomRGHERYLQRV7DEDSXm

*HUDomR

FRPSOHWD 1 )

$QLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV

)PpGLRGRV

HQGRJkPLFRV $5

(PERUD WHQKD DXPHQWDGR D TXDQWLGDGH GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV KRXYH UHGXomR QD HQGRJDPLD GHVWHV DQLPDLV DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV LQGLFDQGR FRQWUROH GRVSURGXWRUHVDRDFDVDODUDQLPDLVDSDUHQWDGRV2WDPDQKRHIHWLYRGDSRSXODomR FDOFXODGRSDUDJHUDomRFRPSOHWDIRLLJXDODSDUDDJHUDomRRVFLORXDRORQJR GDVJHUDo}HVHIRLLJXDOSDUDDJHUDomR$)$2FRQVLGHUDQtYHOFUtWLFR SDUD D SRSXODomR XP WDPDQKR HIHWLYR GD SRSXODomR LQIHULRU D DQLPDLV SRU JHUDomR2YDORUREVHUYDGRSDUDD~OWLPDJHUDomRIRLVXSHULRUDHVWHYDORUFUtWLFR QR HQWDQWR HQFRQWUDVH SUy[LPR H SRGH DWLQJLOR IXWXUDPHQWH XPD YH] TXH Ki RVFLODomR GHVWH SDUkPHWUR DR ORQJR GDV JHUDo}HV 2 YDORU PtQLPR FDOFXODGR HQFRQWUDVHHQWUHRVREWLGRVSRU9HUFHVL)LOKRHWDODGHDHRPi[LPR HVWiSUy[LPRDRPi[LPRREVHUYDGRSRU&DLUHVHWDOGHDQLPDLVSDUDD PHVPDUDoD'HVVDPDQHLUDRVSURGXWRUHVHSURJUDPDVGHPHOKRUDPHQWRGHYHP FRQGHQDU D LQWHQVD XWLOL]DomR GH SRXFRV UHSURGXWRUHV H LQFHQWLYDU D LQWURGXomR GH UHSURGXWRUHV QmR PXLWR XWLOL]DGRV QD SRSXODomR SDUD HYLWDU D UHGXomR GD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDQRVERYLQRV7DEDSXm

(49)

UHSUHVHQWDomR GH DQLPDLV DOWDPHQWH HQGRJkPLFRV SRGHP WHU RFDVLRQDGR D DXVrQFLDGHLQIOXrQFLDGDHQGRJDPLDVREUH3

(VWXGRV FRP DV UDoDV 7DEDSXm 3(11$ *LU 48(,52= $/%848(548( /$1=21, $OHQWHMDQD &$52/,12 *$0$ 0DUFKLJLDQD H %RQVPDUD 6$17$1$ -5 HW DO LGHQWLILFDUDP HIHLWR GH HQGRJDPLD VLJQLILFDWLYR OLQHDU RX TXDGUiWLFR SDUD SHVR DR GHVPDPH S 1R HQWDQWR RV DXWRUHV REWLYHUDP PpGLDV GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD VXSHULRUHV DR REVHUYDGR QHVWH HVWXGR 6DQWDQD -U HVWXGDQGR D UDoD 1HORUH WDPEpP LGHQWLILFDUDPHIHLWRGDYDULDomRGHHQGRJDPLDVREUHRSHVRDRGHVPDPHHHPERUD R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR REVHUYDGR WHQKD VLGR SUy[LPR DR REWLGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR R Pi[LPR DOFDQoDGR IRL VXSHULRU FRQWHQGR DQLPDLV FRP FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDVXSHULRUD

$PpGLDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDIRLLJXDOD“FRPYDULDomRGH DSDUD,33HLJXDOD“FRPYDULDomRGHDSDUD,30,3H,3$ DQiOLVHGDHVWDWtVWLFDWIRLQmRVLJQLILFDWLYDSDUDRFRHILFLHQWHGHUHJUHVVmRSDUD,33 S ,30S ,3S H,3S HLQGLFRXDXVrQFLDGHLQIOXrQFLD GR HIHLWR GH HQGRJDPLD QR GHVHPSHQKR IHQRWtSLFR SDUD HVWDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV $ DXVrQFLD GHVWD LQIOXrQFLD SRGH VHU MXVWLILFDGD SHOR IDWR GD HQGRJDPLD DLQGD QmR HVWDU IRUWHPHQWH HVWDEHOHFLGD GHQWUH RV DQLPDLV GD UDoD YHULILFDGR SHOR EDL[R FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD PpGLR $V GLVWULEXLo}HV GRV YDORUHV IHQRWtSLFRV GH ,33 ,30,3H,3FRQIRUPHFODVVHVGHFRHILFLHQWHVGHHQGRJDPLDHVWmRGHPRQVWUDGDV QD)LJXUD%)LJXUD&)LJXUD'H)LJXUD(UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH

(50)

YHULILFDUDP TXH PHVPR VRE DOWRV tQGLFHV GH HQGRJDPLD DV DOWHUDo}HV QR GHVHPSHQKRIHQRWtSLFRSRGHPVHUSHTXHQDV

(51)

$PpGLDGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDSDUD3$&IRLLJXDOD“FRP YDULDomRHQWUHH$DQiOLVHGDHVWDWtVWLFDWIRLQmRVLJQLILFDWLYDS SDUDR FRHILFLHQWH GH UHJUHVVmR H LQGLFRX DXVrQFLD GH LQIOXrQFLD GD HQGRJDPLD VREUH R GHVHPSHQKR GD 3$& $ GLVWULEXLomR GDV PpGLDV IHQRWtSLFDV VREUH FODVVHV GH FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDHVWiQD)LJXUD)

2FRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDPpGLRREVHUYDGRSDUD3$&IRLEDL[RHHPERUD QmR WHQKD VLGR WHVWDGD D LQIOXrQFLD GR FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD GD PmH VREUH R 3GRDQLPDORHIHLWRGDHQGRJDPLDVREUHRQ~PHURGHEH]HUURVSURGX]LGRVRX LGDGH GD YDFD DR ~OWLPR SDUWR TXH VmR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV TXH FRPS}H WDO tQGLFH D HVWDWtVWLFD W SDUD R FRHILFLHQWH GH UHJUHVVmR VXJHUH DXVrQFLD GH LQIOXrQFLD GD HQGRJDPLDSDUDHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVTXDQGRFRPELQDGDVSDUDDIRUPDomRGD3$& 1R HQWDQWR DQiOLVHV SDUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV VHSDUDGDPHQWH SRGHP DSUHVHQWDU HIHLWR GD HQGRJDPLD FRPR UHODWDGR SRU &DUROLQR H *DPD TXH YHULILFDUDP JUDQGH LQIOXrQFLD SDUD WRWDO GH EH]HUURV SURGX]LGRV DR ORQJR GD YLGD GR DQLPDO VHQGR D GHSUHVVmR HQGRJkPLFD SDUD HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD PDLV H[SUHVVLYD GR TXH SDUD,33

2DXPHQWRGRFRHILFLHQWHGHHQGRJDPLDDRORQJRGDVJHUDo}HVUHVXOWRXGR DXPHQWR QR Q~PHUR GH DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV H QmR SHOR DXPHQWR QD PpGLD GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD HQWUH RV DQLPDLV HQGRJkPLFRV 7DEHOD (VWH IDWRU FRODERURX SDUD D DXVrQFLD GH GHSUHVVmR HQGRJkPLFD SDUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HVWXGDGDV XPD YH] TXH RV tQGLFHV PpGLRV GH FRHILFLHQWH GH HQGRJDPLD IRUDP EDL[RV KDYHQGRPXLWRV DQLPDLV FRP SHTXHQR FRHILFLHQWHGH HQGRJDPLDH SRXFRV DQLPDLVFRPFRHILFLHQWHPDLVHOHYDGR

&21&/86­2

Referências

Documentos relacionados

Igreja Matriz do Divino Espírito Santo ― Piau Igreja de São Sebastião de Barreira ― Juiz de Fora Igreja de Nosso Senhor dos Passos ― Juiz de Fora Igreja de Sant’Anna ―

Com a crescente globalização e o consequente aumento da importância das empresas multinacionais, as políticas de marketing tornam-se mais agressivas de modo a mudar as atitudes

Produtos, preços e destino da produção, praticados em 2007 para o perímetro Icó-Mandantes Dados médios mensais de pecuária no Perímetro Apolônio Sales, em 2008 Levantamento

In summary, this study shows that the association between coffee consumption and HRV reduction disappears for HRV indexes after adjusting for potential confounding factors, but that

$SHVDU GH KDYHU VLPLOLWXGH HQWUH DV GXDV LQVWLWXLo}HV WUDGX]LGD QD DWLWXGH SUHSRQGHUDQWH GH FRQFRUGkQFLD SURFXURXVH GHVFRUWLQDU VH H[LVWHP GLIHUHQoDV QR PRGR FRPR RV HVWXGDQWHV GH

Segundo Morgenthau, quando o país receptor de ajuda externa não possui concordância com os valores do país doador a ajuda externa é nula, dessa forma o auxílio russo não

Este trabalho tem como tema o projeto de um Centro de Oncologia Pediátrica habilitado pelo SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde) para funcionar como uma Unidade de Alta Complexidade

$ LQGXomR GH iUYRUHV GH GHFLVmR WHP VLGR XVDGD WDPEpP SDUD VH REWHU PRGHORV GH HVWLPDWLYD GH XPD LPSRUWDQWH YDULiYHO QD HSLGHPLRORJLD GH PXLWDV GRHQoDV D GXUDomR GR SHUtRGR