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117 Tropical Plant Pathology 33 (2) March - April 2008
Análise da epidemia da ferrugem do cafeeiro com árvore de decisão
Corp.). Alguns procedimentos inais foram realizados com o “software” SAS Enterprise Miner™ (versão 4.3, SAS Institute Inc.). O conjunto de dados preparado totalizou 384 exemplos ou casos (8 anos x 12 meses x 4 combinações espaçamento-carga). No entanto, houve períodos de falha no registro da estação meteorológica, por falta de energia, funcionamento incorreto ou manutenção nos meses de novembro e dezembro de 2000 e fevereiro de 2000 e 2003. Os dados meteorológicos disponíveis também não foram suicientes para formar o período de infecção correspondente à incidência observada em outubro de 1998. Sendo assim, os exemplos dos referidos meses (5 meses x 4 combinações = 20) foram eliminados,
resultando no conjunto de modelagem com 364 exemplos, chamado de conjunto de treinamento.
Modelagem
O algoritmo básico de indução de árvores de decisão constrói a árvore de forma recursiva, de cima para baixo (Han & Kamber, 2001). Inicia com o conjunto de treinamento, que é dividido de acordo com um teste sobre uma das variáveis independentes, formando-se subconjuntos mais homogêneos em relação à variável dependente. Esse procedimento é repetido até que se consiga conjuntos de exemplos bem homogêneos, para os quais seja possível atribuir um único valor para a variável dependente. O
FIG. 1: Representação dia-a-dia do esquema usado na preparação dos dados meteorológicos. Di – dia de infecção, Ai – avaliação da incidência da ferrugem do cafeeiro, Ai-1 – avaliação da incidência no mês anterior, PI – período de incubação e PINF – período de infecção.
TABELA 1 - Relação das variáveis usadas na indução da árvore de decisão
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DISCUSSÃO
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