Teresa Brandão
Cristina Silva
7
thDecember 2007
Predictive Microbiology
A tool to support food safety decisions
UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA PORTUGUESA
Escola Superior de Biotecnologia
Models of microbial inactivation
Models of microbial inactivation
-- aplication in foods
aplication in foods
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
some concepts ...
observation
= mathematical function (
y
= f (
variables
x
,
q
) + e
+
parameters
) + experimental error
Parameters estimation
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000x
y
q
*
Precise
?
Accurate
?
y
model
y
exp
minimization of the residuals
between
experimental
values
and the ones predicted by the
model
precise
and
accurate
description of data
model adequacy
quality of the parameters
objective
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
fundamental description of the processes involved
more complex
black boxe
more simple (or not!)
practical application
advantages and disadvantages should be considered
decision depending on the final goal
mechanistic models
empirical models
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
mathematical
complexity
model adequacy
model
parameters
quality
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
knowledge of the process
process effect in the product
control of the variables involved
advantages
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
Processes
Chemical
Physical
Food Processes
Transport Phenomena
• heat
• mass
• momentum
Reaction kinetics
Properties
Modelling
Mathematical function
variables
parameters
data
Regression schemes
experimental design
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
Processes
Chemical
Physical
Food Processes
Transport Phenomena
• heat
• mass
• momentum
Reaction kinetics
Properties
Modelling
Mathematical function
variables
parameters
data
Regression schemes
experimental design
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
design
Criteria
Processes
Chemical
Physical
Food Processes
Transport Phenomena
• heat
• mass
• momentum
Reaction kinetics
Properties
Modelling
Mathematical function
variables
parameters
data
Regression schemes
experimental design
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
design
Criteria
validation
Processes
Chemical
Physical
Food Processes
Transport Phenomena
• heat
• mass
• momentum
Reaction kinetics
Properties
Modelling
Mathematical function
variables
parameters
data
Regression schemes
experimental design
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
design
Criteria
validation
control
Processes
Chemical
Physical
Food Processes
Transport Phenomena
• heat
• mass
• momentum
Reaction kinetics
Properties
Modelling
Mathematical function
variables
parameters
data
Regression schemes
experimental design
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
design
Criteria
validation
control
optimization
Objectives
Processes
Chemical
Physical
Food Processes
Transport Phenomena
• heat
• mass
• momentum
Reaction kinetics
Properties
Modelling
Mathematical function
variables
parameters
data
Regression schemes
experimental design
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
design
Criteria
validation
control
optimization
Objectives
quality
quality
safety
safety
safety
safety
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
predictive
predictive
microbiology
microbiology
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
mathematics
microbiology
statistics
predictive
predictive
microbiology
microbiology
Mathematical modelling
Mathematical modelling
prediction / simulation
development of efficient
inactivation processes
contribution to
safety
aplication
Predictive microbiology
Sigmoidal behaviour
Reflects the presence of microbial sub-populations
more
temperature
resistent
(or other environmental
stressing factor
)
inactivation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
500
1000
1500
2000
tempo (s)
lo
g
N
Predictive microbiology
time (s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Example
Miller (2004)
52.5 ºC
Listeria innocua
liquid medium
55 ºC
57.5 ºC
60 ºC
62.5 ºC
65 ºC
log N
time (min)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Example
52.5 ºC
55 ºC
57.5 ºC
60 ºC
62.5 ºC
65 ºC
log N
time (min)
Miller (2004)
Listeria innocua
liquid medium
primary
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Te mpo (min) L o g C F U /gkinetics
parameters
time (s)
Mathematical models
Mathematical models
primary
secundary
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Te mpo (min) L o g C F U /gparameters
pH
a
w
temperature
time (s)
Mathematical models
Mathematical models
primary
secundary
tertiary -
all models integration
-
software
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Te mpo (min) L o g C F U /gparameters
pH
a
w
temperature
time (s)
Mathematical models
Mathematical models
primary
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 500 1000 1500 2000logN
k
logN
0logN
resL
Tempo (s)
empirical
empirical
fundamental
fundamental
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
1
st
order
kt
exp
N
N
0
D
t
N
log
logN
0
D – decimal reduction time
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2 4 6 8 Tim e (m in) L o g C F U /g
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
kt
exp
N
N
0
D
t
N
log
logN
0
k
t
1
F
exp
k
t
exp
F
N
N
2
1
1
1
0
Cerf
(1977)
Kamau et al.
(1990)
t
k
exp
1
F
1
2
t
k
exp
1
F
2
log
N
N
log
2
1
1
1
0
F
1
– fraction of inactivated microorganisms
k
1
e k
2
– kinetic constants
biphasic
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2 4 6 8 Tim e (m in) L o g C F U /g 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Time (min) L o g C F U /m lModels for inactivation
Models for inactivation
1
st
order
primary
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Tim e (m in) L o g C F U /g
L
t
k
exp
1
L
k
exp
1
F
1
L
t
k
exp
1
L
k
exp
1
F
log
N
N
log
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
Whiting & Buchanan
(1992)
L – lag or shoulder
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
Cole et al.
(1993)
σ
w
t
log
λ
σ
4
exp
1
α
w
α
N
log
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Tim e (m in) L o g C F U /g
L
t
k
exp
1
L
k
exp
1
F
1
L
t
k
exp
1
L
k
exp
1
F
log
N
N
log
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
Whiting & Buchanan
(1992)
Distribution of
microbial population
heat sensitiveness
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
Baranyi et al.
(1993)
t
0
N
0
N
N
t
t
k
dt
dN
function ‘lag’
function ‘tail’
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 500 1000 1500 2000 tempo (s) lo g NModels for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
Baranyi et al.
(1993)
t
0
N
0
N
N
t
t
k
dt
dN
function ‘lag’
function ‘tail’
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 500 1000 1500 2000 tempo (s) lo g N
0
exp
k
t
Q
1
0
Q
1
t
k
exp
log
N
N
log
max
max
0
Geeraerd et al.
(2000)
Q
k
dt
dQ
N
Q
k
k
dt
dN
max
Q
max
Q – variable related to the physiological state of microorganisms
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
Gompertz
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 500 1000 1500 2000 tempo (s) lo g NBhaduri et al (1991)
Linton et al. (1995, 1996)
Xiong et al. (1999)
L
t
1
N
N
log
e
k
exp
exp
N
N
log
logN
logN
0
res
0
res
0
Reparameterization for inactivation based on Zwitering et al. (1990)
Listeria monocytogenes
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
primary
Gompertz
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 500 1000 1500 2000 tempo (s) lo g NBhaduri et al (1991)
Linton et al. (1995, 1996)
Xiong et al. (1999)
Logistic
Listeria monocytogenes
k
t
-
L
exp
1
c
logN
c – constant
Models for inactivation
Models for inactivation
Reparameterization for inactivation based on Zwitering et al. (1990)
L
t
1
N
N
log
e
k
exp
exp
N
N
log
logN
logN
0
res
0
res
0
Gompertz
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 500 1000 1500 2000 tempo (s) lo g NModels for inactivation
Models for inactivation
L
t
1
N
N
log
e
k
exp
exp
N
N
log
logN
logN
0
res
0
res
0
or
L
t
1
N
N
log
e
k
exp
exp
N
N
log
N
N
log
0
res
0
res
0
Examples
Gompertz
Gompertz
Data of
Data of L.monocytogenes
L.monocytogenes Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68ºC
Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68ºC
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
time (s)
lo
g
N
T=52 ºC
T=56 ºC
T=60 ºC
Gil (2002)
Casadei et al. (1998)
Statistica 6.0
Gompertz
Gompertz
Data of
Data of L.monocytogenes
L.monocytogenes Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68ºC
Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68ºC
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
time (s)
lo
g
N
T=64 ºC
T=68 ºC
T=60 ºC
Gil (2002)
Casadei et al. (1998)
Statistica 6.0
Examples
Gompertz
Gompertz
Data of
Data of L.innocua
L.innocua at 52.5 and 60ºC
at 52.5 and 60ºC
Parsley (
Parsley (Petroselinum crispum
Petroselinum crispum)) artificially contaminated
artificially contaminated
Miller (2006)
Statistica 6.0
logN
0
N
N
log
Examples
52.5ºC -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 tim e (m in) log (N /N0 ) 60ºC -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 tim e (m in) lo g( N /N0 ) T52.5ºC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 50 100 150 200 250 tim e (m in) lo g N T60ºC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18time (min)
lo
g
N
T = 52.5 ºC
T = 60 ºC
primary
secundary
Mathematical models
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Te mpo (min) L o g C F U /gparameters
pH
a
w
temperature
time (s)
secundary
Arrhenius
Davey /
Arrhenius modified
“Square-root type models”
Ratkowsky et al.
(1982)
McMeekin et al.
(1987)
Adams et al.
(1991)
McMeekin et al. (1992)
)
T
b(T
k
min
)
a
(a
)
T
b(T
k
min
w
w
min
)
pH
(pH
)
T
b(T
k
min
min
RT
E
-exp
k
k
0
a
lnk
lnk
0
RT
E
a
2
W
4
W
3
2
2
1
0
C
a
C
a
T
C
T
C
C
lnk
)
pH
(pH
)
a
(a
)
T
b(T
k
min
w
w
min
min
min – minimal value for growth
ref
a
ref
exp
-
E
R
T
1
T
1
k
k
Mathematical models
Examples
Gompertz
k=0.0216 exp(-203.3/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
Logistic
k=0.0337 exp(-206.6/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
Data of
Data of L.monocytogenes
L.monocytogenes Scott A
Scott A
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
320
325
330
335
340
345
Temperature (K)
k
(
1
/s
)
D
Ea=28.85 kJ/mol
D
Ea=27.56 kJ/mol
D
K
ref=4.58x10
-3s
-1D
K
ref=7.31x10
-3s
-1Arrhenius
k = f(T)
Gil (2002)
Statistica 6.0
Examples
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
320
325
330
335
340
345
Temperature (K)
L
(
s
)
Data of
Data of L.monocytogenes
L.monocytogenes Scott A
Scott A
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
L=116.3exp(344.1/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
R
2=0.9998
lag = f(T)
D
Ea=7.485 kJ/mol
D
L
ref=7.595 s
-1Gompertz
Gompertz
Gil (2002)
Statistica 6.0
Examples
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
320
325
330
335
340
345
Temperature (K)
l
(s
)
l
= 194.5exp(429.7/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
R
2=1.000
Data of
Data of L.monocytogenes
L.monocytogenes Scott A
Scott A
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
(24 hours incubation at 5ºC in half cream)
D
Ea=3.591 kJ/mol
D
l
ref=6.154 s
-1lag = f(T)
Logistic
Logistic
Gil (2002)
Statistica 6.0
Mathematical models
More complexity !!
time-varying conditions
pH
a
w
temperature
)
tempo
(
d
N
log
d
Gompertz
Gompertz
)
tempo
(
d
N
log
d
L
t'
1
dt
'
N
N
log
exp(1)
k
exp
exp
1
t'
L
N
N
log
exp(1)
k
exp(1)exp
k
logN
logN
t
0
0
res
0
res
0
time-varying temperature conditions
ref
a
ref
exp
-
E
R
T
1
T
1
k
k
ref
T
1
T
1
b
exp
a
L
Mathematical models
Gompertz
Gompertz
time-varying temperature conditions
Mathematical models
-7,0 -6,0 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Tim e (m in) L o g ( N /N 0 ) 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 T e m pe ra tu re ( ºC ) Palcam AgarParsley (
Parsley (Petroselinum crispum
Petroselinum crispum)
) artificially contaminated with
artificially contaminated with L. innocua
L. innocua
Miller (2006)
Gompertz
Gompertz
time-varying temperature conditions
Mathematical models
-6,0
-5,0
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
0
2
4
6
8
Tim e (m in)
L
o
g
(
N
/N
0
)
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
T
e
m
p
e
ra
tu
re
(
ºC
)
Meat pockets artificially contaminated with
Meat pockets artificially contaminated with L. innocua
L. innocua
frying process
Miller (2006)
-20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time (min) T e m p e ra tu re ( ºC )
tertiary
Models for inactivation
softwares
Microbial growth
Shelf life prediction
Microbial inactivation
Drawbacks
•
microbial interaction
•
natural strains diversity
•
complexity of food structure
•
food/microorganism
•
modelling ‘lag’
•
modelling ‘tail’
• predictions in real time-varying environmental conditions
BUGDEATH
Participation of our research team in the project ...
Surface
pasteurization of
foods
www.frperc.bris.ac.uk/bugdeath.htm
Predictive
microbiology
2001-2004
Partners
Bugdeath
1.
Food Refrigeration and Process Engineering Research Center (FRPERC)
University of Bristol
2.
Escola Superior de Biotecnologia (ESB)
Universidade Católica Portuguesa
3.
Department of Chemical Engineering
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KUL)
4.
Teagask, The National Food Center (NFC)
5.
Campden & Chorleywood Food Research Association (CCFRA)
6.
Faculty of Applied Science
University of West England (UWE)
7.
Laboratoire de Ginie des Procidis Alimentares (ENITIA)
Ecole Nationale d’Inginieurs des Techniques des Industries Agricoles et Alimentaires
Objectives
• microbial inactivation studies at food surfaces
• development of precise and accurate inactivation models
• development of an equipment for surface food pasteurization
‘rig apparatus’
• software development for prediction
Bugdeath
Foods under study
potato
chicken
meat
Bugdeath
microorganisms
Listeria monocytogenes
E. coli
Salmonella
Campylobacter
rig apparatus
Bugdeath
Thermal processes
• steam
• dry air
H e a ting up a nd c ooling d own of sa mple s a t 5 5 C
Exp 1 , 2 a nd 3
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 T i m e ( h ) Sample 1 Sample 2 # REF!Rapid process
Temperature histories
Different
temperature
histories
can
be tested
rig apparatus
Dissemination session
Chipping Campden,
Agosto 2004
Escola Superior de Biotecnologia, Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Development of a user-friendly
combined heat, mass transfer and
microbial death model
Team
Pedro Pereira
Maria Manuel Gil
Teresa Brandão
Cristina Silva
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Objectives
•
Create a software application
User-friendly tool
Simulation of inactivation kinetics of
microorganisms on the surface of
foods
during pasteurisation treatments
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Introduction
•
Need to obtain reliable data on relationship
between microbial death and the surface
temperature of real foods
Lead to the design,
construction and
commission of equipment
Software application to
simulate results obtained in the
rig apparatus
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Modelling
Microbial inactivation under
constant and time-varying
temperature conditions
Integrates
Heat transfer
phenomena
Prediction/simulation
purposes
Global model
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Modelling
Two modelling approaches
•
Accurate modelling of heat transfer
-
Description of the phenomena induced to the food surface
by a thermal process
•
Modelling microbial inactivation behaviour under
such temperature conditions
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Heat transfer model
Two modelling approaches
•
One dimensional heat transfer model
•
Combination of different phenomena
–
Conduction
–
Convection
–
Evaporation/condensation of water or steam
–
Radiation (not considered)
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Heat transfer model
•
Simplified model
Conduction/convection - Fourier
Geometry – plane sheet
No mass transfer phenomena considered
•
Limits
Air velocity ranged from 15 m/s to 25 m/s
Extrapolation locked outside of conditions that can be
verified in the test rig
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Heat transfer model
2
2
x
)
t
,
x
(
T
t
)
t
,
x
(
T
air
or
steam
sur
eff
top
T
T
h
x
T
sup
inf
inf
bot
T
T
h
x
T
Crank-Nicholson method
t – time
T – temperature
h – heat transfer coefficient
α – thermal diffusivity
λ – Thermal conductivity
x
1
2
3
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Boundary conditions - bottom
Exchanges between the bottom of the product and the
support can be neglected – product thickness < 0.5 cm
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Heat transfer model
2
2
x
)
t
,
x
(
T
t
)
t
,
x
(
T
air
or
steam
sur
eff
top
T
T
h
x
T
sup
inf
inf
bot
T
T
h
x
T
Crank-Nicholson method
t – time
T – temperature
h – heat transfer coefficient
α – thermal diffusivity
λ – Thermal conductivity
x
1
2
3
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Effective coefficient – dry conditions
sur
max
T
w
T
m
sur
max
sur
air
eff
T
T
P
a
P
H
K
T
T
T
T
h
h
sur
sur
convection
evaporation
k
m– mass transfer coefficient
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Effective coefficient – wet conditions (steam)
h
eff
T
sur
= T
steam
– 3ºC
Due to complexity of mathematical
expressions to be incorporated in
the software
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Microbial inactivation model
• To predict microbial content at the surface of
foods
• It has the advantage of dealing with
time-varying temperature conditions
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Microbial inactivation model
)
exp(
)
0
(
1
)
0
(
1
)
log(exp(
log
max
max
0
Q
k
t
Q
t
k
N
N
Q
N
k
k
dt
dN
Q
max
Q
k
dt
dQ
max
N – microbial cell density
Q – variable related to the physiological state of the cells
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Microbial inactivation model
exp
ln
10
1
1
10
ln
exp
10
ln
)
,
(
max
a
c
z
T
T
z
D
a
T
k
w
a
ref
ref
w
w
T = Tsur
Calculated on the basis of all considerations
of heat transport
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Software Program
• The programme was developed using Real Basic®
5.2 application
• Food/microorganism selection is allowed
(database of thermal properties and kinetic parameters)
• On the basis of the selection of a heating regime of
the medium, the programme allows prediction of
the food surface temperature and simulates the
microbial load content along the whole process
time
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
‘Bugdeath’ - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5; Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme