ORGANIZERS Carolina Bilibio
Oliver Hensel
Jeferson Francisco Selbach
Sustainable water management
in
the tropics and
subtropics-and
case studies in Brazil
VI.3JaguarãojRS
Fundação Universidade Federal do Pampa UNIKASSEL - PGCUlt-UFMA
UNIKASSEL
V
E
R
5
I
T
"
A
" T
pa
-UnMlrsklade Feder •• do Pampa
Editorial Board for editing
Carolina Bilibio (Unikassel-UFLA)
Christian Schellert (Unikassel) Esther Báxter Perez (ICCP/Cuba)
Jeferson Francisco Selbach (Unipampa) Joana Maria Pedro (UFSC)
José Fernando Manzke (PGCult/UFMA)
Márcio Pizarro Noronha (UFGO)
Narciso Telles (UFU)
Oliver Hensel (Unikassel)
Rosemary Fritsch Brum (NHO/UFRGS)
Sérgio Ivan Gil Braga (UFAM) Stephan Tomerius (FH Trier) Udo Baldur Moosburger (UFPR) Printed in electronic format - e-book
Cover: India, por David Rotbard
STATEMENTOF CATALOGING
BILIBIO, Carolina; HENSEL,Oliver; SELBACH,Jeferson Fran-cisco. Sustamable water management ín the tropics and subtropics -ano case studies tn Brazil. VI.3. Jaquarãc/RS:
Fundação Universidade Federal do Pampa, UNIKASSEL, PGCult-UFMA,2012. 1.183p.
CDU 502 O meio ambiente e a sua protecção ISBN 978-85-63337-22-1
This book has been authorized for public and is available for download in the portais of
GUARANI AQUIFER IN COkNTEX OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Marco Antonio Ferreira Gomes
INTRODUCTION
The environmental alterations mainly according the global climate changes, has great evidence in last years, exemplified by negative effects on life of the ali organisms of the world.
According water resources, is visible the climate changes influences, because they affect de hydrologic cyele and, consequently, the rainfall system in several countries.
The cyeling of water in its various states solid, liquid, and gaseous is a primary process within the earth's climate system. Information on variability of states and fluxes over time is crucial for the understanding of the sustainability of local, regional, national, and international economies and ecosystems. Therefore, the eftect of climate change on stream flow and groundwater recharge varies regionally and between climate scenarios, largely following projected changes in precipitation.
To knowledge the futures possibilities about of the stream flow and groundwater recharge transformation processes through scenarios, contribute in adoption of the prevention actions in adverse environmental conditions or submitted negative impacts, mainly future population in relation to disposability of the drinking water.
Marco Antonio Ferreira Gomes
OlL.. o
.•..•.
In front of this scenario, the Guarani Aquifer, more important and strategic of the South America and one of the largest reservoirs of groundwater in the world, need special attention, mainly in reason your hig h potential store of the water, capable to supply about 450 million of the people, next 2,5 more the actual Brazilian population,
considering rainfall value media 1.500 mmjyear and use of the 120 litersjpersonjday, according Health World Organization. If this rainfall value to modify to more or less or to be unexpected, the capability to supply groundwater will be expressive alterations. This scenario compromises the exploitation of this aquifer, decreasing the disposal of the water to future people of the South America. s: u ." .o QI VI c o 11I L. ~QI ...• QI ai11I C QI I L.. Ql ~ Õ
st
..a ." .!: oL.. ." U GENERAL CHARACTERISTICSANO IMPORTANCE OF THE GUARANI AQUIFER
The Guarani Aquifer or commonly named Guarani
Aquifer System (GAS) is a groundwater reservoir of the South America. The water is found in the pores and fissures of sandstones, formed during the geological times of the Mesozoic (ages between 200 e 130 million years ago), which are typically covered by thick layers of basalts that confined them. The GAS constitutes one of the largest reservoirs of groundwater in the world, with current water
storage of approximately 37.000 km and a natural
recharge of the 166 krnt/vear, considering total area
(confined and direct recharge). The water in the
sandstones can be found pat depths between 50 m to
1500 m, with temperatures that vary between 33°C and 65°C. This broad thermal range offers possibilities for diverse geothermic applications. The GAS is located in the eastern and mid-southern South America and underlies in some areas of Argentina, Brazil, Paraquay and Uruguay. It is estimated that the total surface of the GAS is 1.195.000 km2 with 225.000 km2 in Argentina, 850.000
km2 in Brazil (São Paulo, paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio
Guarani aquiter m contex of the global climate change
and Minas Gerais States), 70.000 km2 in Paraguay and
45.000 km2 in Uruguay. The whole of these countries
composes Plata Hydrographic Basin.
The direct recharge or outcrop areas in Brazil are
104.143 krn-: in Paraquay are 46.211 Km2 and Uruguay
are 3.197 Km2• Total value of the direct recharge area
=153.551 Km2• These areas are main portions of the
recharge aquifer, reason of need your protection (Borghetti
et ai, 2004) and showed in figure 1.
Considering the natural recharge of the 166 km3j
year, the hydrologists to take values equivalent to 25%
(next 40 km3jyear) how a security and sustainable
exploitation of the aquifer, mainly that sedimentary origino
This percent values to take still average rainfall of the
1.500 rnrn/vear, according Gomes (2008).
FigureI. Location ofthe Guarani Aquifer, with distribution of areas,
both confined and direct recharge.
Direct recharge area
:
{[
tOm
.
1cemn
10I
I-
-
t
-I
I ! Confined areaSource: Revista Superinteressante n. 7ano 13
ACTUAL SCENARIO
Approximately 24 million people live in the area
delimited by the boundaries of the Guarani aquifer and a
261
c li) .~ 'U ::l.
.
,
VI ai VI <Il U 'U C til VI u a. o •.. •... .o ::J VI 'U C til VI U Õ. o !:; Q) .c •... c •... c Q) ~ O> til C til E •... 2! til !: Q) .o til c ~li) ::l VlOl •... o '-' s: u <ti .o Q) Vl c o l•i...) Q) .•.. Q) ~ •... Q) ~ (5 'ti C o•... <ti V
Marco Antonio Ferrelra Gomes
Q)
total of 70 million people live in areas that directly or indirectly influenced it. The main use of the aquifer is for
drinking water supply, but there are also industrial, agricultural irrigation and thermal tourism uses (Borghetti
et al., 2004).
Actually the agricultural activities expand on direct
recharge areas, showing contamination risks of the aquifer.
These portions are named tragile areas in reason of the high natural vulnerability, exposed by sand soils; these soils contribute to development erosion and lixiviation processes and are classified how Typic Quartzipsamment and Quartzipsammentic Haplorthox (Soil Taxonomy - USA),
according Gomes et ai (2002).
The scenario showed, more possible climate change, to evidence the possibility of the degradation of the outcrops or direct recharge areas, exposing the aquifer to
the contamination risks in medium and long time (Gomes
et aI., 2002).
TREND OF RAINFALL ANO TEMPERATURE
DURING THE 21stCENTURV
(PLATA HVDROGRAPHIC BASIN)
This work provides a summary of various estimates based on projections of future climate for South America, using the outputs generated for the five models AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models) of the IPCC-TAR (Third Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change) and IPCC-AR4 (fourth report) for SRES
(Special Report Emission Scenarios) scenarios of high
ernrssíon of greenhouse gases (scenario A2) or pessimistic,
and low emission of greenhouse gases (scenario B2) or
optimistic (Marengo, 2006; Marengo, 2008; Nobre et ai,
2008).
To estimate the rainfall and temperature in the Plata Hydrographic Basin during the period of 2020, 2050, 2080
and 2100 were then used five types of models described below: 1. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
QJ <li
C Q)
Guarani aquirer m contex of the global cllmate change
Research, England (HadCM3); 2. Australia's Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia
(CSIRO-Mk2); 3. Canadian Center for Climate Modeling
and Analysis, Canada (CCCMA); 4. National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration NOAA - Geophysical Fluids
Dynamic Laboratory, EUA(GFDL-CM2); 5.Center for Climate
Stu dies a nd Resea rch CCS R/N atio na I Institute for
Environmental Studies NIES,Japan (CCSR/NIES), according
Marengo (2006) and Marengo (2008).
RAINFALL
The HadCM3 (English model) show for B2 scenario
(optimist) a tendency positive rainfall, with +ü.Srnm.day
1in wet and dry seasons; to A2 scenario (pessimist) show
negative tendency to rainfall, with -0.5mm day' 1in wet
and dry seasons to period 2020 - 2050, according Marengo
(2006). The same model in scenarios A2 and B2 to period
2050 -2100 consider tendency positive rainfall, with +
1mm. dav+in wet season and tendency negative rainfall,
with -0,5mm. dav' in dry season.
The CCCMA(Canadian model) and GFDL (American
model) consider to period 2020 - 2050 - 2100, negative
tendency to rainfall, with medium value -Lrnm.dav' in
scenarios A2 and B2 in wet and dry seasons; in portion
medium and high of the Plata Basin, the GFDL model
consider positive tendency, with values until +1,5mm.day
-1 to scenaríos and B2 ín two seasons.
The CSIRO (Australían model) and CCSR/NEIS
(Japanese model) consíder to períod 2020 - 2050, seasons
more or less rainy, between +ü.Srnrn.day' (scenario B2)
and -0.5mm dav' (scenario A2). To period 2050 - 2100
present negative tendency to rainfall, wíth value
-2mm.day-l by year in scenarios B2 and A2. These models
also consider a dry season longer, initializing in 2020,
wíth delay rainy season by two months. (Example: rainfalls
would start in December and finish ín March the followíng
year).
26
3
'<"li U ::J ..., <f) Qj '" ro u u c: ro '" u Õ. o ' -15::J '" u c: ou '" •... õ. o ' -..., Qj s:.•... c:c
Q) E <li Ol'
"
c: ro E Q) .o ro c:r:
':":J (/)Marco Antonio Ferreira Gomes s: u IV D QI Ul C o til •... ~ QI .-,
On average, the five rainfalls forecasting models,
the scenario A2 (worst or pessimistic) shows increase
+0,2
mrn
.
dav
'
and the scenario B2 (better or optimistic)a increase + 0,3 rnrn.day'. according to the propositions
of the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) in
Marengo (2006) and showed in figure 2.
Figure 2. Trend of increased rainfall to Plata Hydrographic Basin,
according the five IPCC models (periods 2020 - 2050 - 2100). Mean value of +0,2 mm/day in worst scenario (A2) and +0,3 rnrn.dav' in better scenario (B2).
QI atili C QI I •... QI >
o
Scenario A2 Scenario B2 .2~ .o i:ii <O .S o •... ro U TEMPERATURETo temperature data, ali models showed in the
scenario A2 (pessimistic) increase value of until 6°C and
scenario B2 (optimistic) increase value until 30 C.
Particularly, the HadCM3 and CCSR/ NIES showed
positive anomalies of up to 50 C in 2100, whereas the A2
scenario, the worst case and up to 4° C for the B2 scenario,
the most optimistic (Marengo, 2006). Figure 3 below shows
the mean temperature for the Plata Hydrographic Basin,
considering average values of the five models and the
Guarani aqUlfer10 contex of the global chmate change
Figure 3. Average values of five IPCCmodels indicate an increase of
up to 3° C (optimistic scenario - B2) and up to 6° C (pessimistic
scenario - A2) by 2020, 2050 and 2100;
I
I
, ~! -u__~----~--~
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OFANOMALIES IN
TEMPERATURE ANO RAINFALL FOR THE PLATA
HYOROGRAPHIC BASIN
The Plata Hydrographic Basin is one of the regions
of greatest economic importance of South America;
The climate change in this region can seriously affect
society, with reduced water availability for human
consumption, agriculture and power generation
=
>
increase in diseases such as dengue and malaria and
other related shortages and compromised water quality;
There is a tendency that the events (rainfall and
temperature) fluctuations are concentrated in certain period
of years, in favor of natural disasters such as floods;
The pattern of anomalies in rainfall and temperature
for the Plata Hydrographic Basin is characterized by an
increase in temperature ranging from about (average of
five models and scenarias A2 and B2) of 1.2° C in 2020,
2.20 C in 2050 and 3.50 C in 2080; 11> U a. o •... ..., .o ~ 11> "O C
'
"
I/l U ag
c ..., c <l) E <li 01 ro c ru EMarco Antonio Ferrerr a Gomes s: u <li .o QI VI c o
.,
•
..
~ QI ....•The temperature values between the most
important scenarios A2 and 82 occurs in 2080, where the
average of the models for 82 is 2.7° C and A2 is 4° C;
For the anomalies of rain, for both scenarios, ali
models show variations from 0.2 to 0.3 mm dav' in the
years 2020, 2050 and 2080 (Marengo, 2006; Marengo,
2008) .
POSSIBLE NEGATIVE IMPACTS CAUSED BY
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PLATA
HYDROGRAPHIC (OCCURRENE
GUARANI AQUIFER)
Even with the trend of increasing rainfall in the future,
higher temperatures could somehow limit the availability
of drinking water, agriculture and power generation due
to increased evaporation and evapotranspiration (Marengo,
2006);
The water balance would be affected as well,
affecting not only the flow of water courses as well as
recharging the aquifer, such as the Guarani Aquifer supply
of which is done exclusively by the rain.
Reduction of biodiversity through the extinction of
large variety of plant species less tolerant to heat;
Reduction of vegetation cover, with greater exposure
of the soil;
Reduction of stability of soil aggregates due to the
decline in soil organic matter and other agents of soil
aggregation, making their aggregates less stable;
Reduced rates of water infiltration into the soil due
to three causes: a) smaller volume of water available, b)
increased evaporation and c) reduction of permeability of
soil due to greater instability of their aggregates;
Reducing the volume of rivers waters as a natural
consequence of the lower volume provided by the rains.
01 Qj Vl C QI I
•
..
QI >o
.9 .-.0 <li E o•... 'tl VGuarani aquifer In contex of the global dlmate change
PROPOSALS FOR ACTION TO
TOLERATE CLIMATE CHANGE
Preparation of a National Map Integrated Vulnerability to climate change, integrating various sectors: health, agriculture, coastal zone ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, etc., for the identification of populations, areas and regions most at risk in the short, medium and long term ;
Encouragement of scientific research integrated, bringing together the areas of climatology, agriculture, health, economy, demographics, etc. In order to build scenarios Brazilian impacts of clirnate change for decades to come;
Increasing awareness of the climate change issue with the Brazilian society in general and in particular, in research institutions in the public and federal and state sectors and universities;
Federal and state government actions to discuss global warming and its consequences; need for the creation of the Brazilian Network for Research on Climate Change (Ministry of Science and Technology and Ministry of Environment).
Require the maintenance of the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPA) and expansion of the Environmental Protection Areas (EPA's) what, consequently, contributes to the supply of water from rivers and others water flows (action how sponge effect), especially in drought periods, how results of the presence of the a micro-cooler climes near the headwaters and along ali the course until the estuary;
The presence of PPA and EPA's favors several environmental components, such as maintaining biodiversity, and contribute to the protection of slopes, clíffs, edges and margins along the watercourses, avoiding the onset of erosion and consequent negative impacts,
267
"O C IV Q) .c +-cc
eu E QI 01 IV C IV EMarco Antonio Ferrelra Gomes s: u C1l o Q/ f.I} C o '" •... <11 .•... <11 ...,
especially during periods of concentrated rain, according
to the prediction of five models presented in this work;
Crop rotation and integrated systems of agricultural
production, while the agricultural suitability of the soil,
contribute to the maintenance of its physical, chemical
and biological properties, as well as its conservation
(erosion control) and water (contribution to infiltration)
in the agriculture environment;
Adopting a method of Agri-environmental Planning
(AP) developed for the outcrops or direct recharge areas
of sedimentary aquifers, in order to protect groundwater
and, consequently, the sustainability of the Guarani
Aquifer System (SAG) as a reference on climate change
(Gomes et ai, 2008).
REFERENCES
BORGHETII, N. R. B.; BORGHETII, J. R.; ROSA FILHO, E. F.
(2004). Aquífero Guarani: a verdadeira integração do Mercosul.
Curitiba.214p.
GOMES, M.A.F. OAqüífero Guarani. (2008). In: GOMES,Marco
Antonio Ferreira. Uso agrícola das áreas de afloramento do
Aqüífero Guarani no Brasil: implicações para a água subterrânea
e proposta de gestão com enfoque agroambiental. 1a ed. Brasília,
DF: Embrapa Informação Tecnológica, p. 35 -44.
GOMES, M.A.F.; PEREIRA,
t.c.:
PEREIRA,A.S.; CAMARGODEASSIS, M.; HAMADA, E.; LOPES ASSAD, M.L.R.C. (2008).
Ordenamento Agroambiental das áreas de afloramento do
Aqüífero Guarani - conceitos e aplicações. In: GOMES, Marco
Antonio Ferreira. Uso agrícola das áreas de afloramento do
Aqüífero Guarani no Brasil: implicações para a água subterrânea
eproposta de gestão com enfoque agroambiental. 1a ed. Brasília,
DF: Embrapa Informação Tecnológica. p.345-362.
GOMES, M.A.F.; SPADOTIO, C.A.; PESSOA, M.C.P.Y. (2002).
Avaliação da vulnerabilidade natural do solo em áreas agrícolas:
subsídio àavaliação do risco decontaminação do lençol freático
por agroquímicos. Pesticidas: Rev.Ecotoxicol. e Meio Ambiente,
v. 12. Curitiba, p. 169-179.
MARENGO, J.A. (2008). Water and climate change. Estudos
Avançados, v. 22 n. 63. São Paulo, p. 83 - 96. Q/ Qi '" C <11 I Q .c
Guarani aqUlferm contex ~f the global chmate change
MARENGO, J.A. (2006). Mudanças Climáticas Globais e Seus
Efeitos Sobre a Biodiversidade: caracterização do clima atual e
definição das alterações climáticas para oterritório brasileiro
ao longo do Século XXI. Brasília: MMA, 212p. (Série
Biodiversidade, v.26).
NOBRE,C.A.; SAMPAIO, G.; SALAZAR, L. (2008). Cenários de
mudança climática para a América do Sul para o final do século
21. Parcerias Estratégicas, n. 27. Brasília, p. 19-42.
REVISTA SUPERINTERESSANTE.(1999). Tem uma esponja aqui
dentro. Seção Geologia. São Paulo: Editora Abril: São Paulo,
p. 62-67. (n. 07, ano 13).
AUTHOR
Marco Antonio Ferreira Gomes
Geólogo; Doctor Scientiae em Solos e Nutrição de Plantas.
Pesquisador A - Embrapa Meio Ambiente - Jaguariúna/SP. E
-mail: gomes@cnpma.embrapa.br c '" ~ "O E li> QJ \fi '" u "O C '" Vl u a.
