Temperature and precipitation reconstruction in southern Portugal during the late Maunder Minimum (AD 1675–1715)

The Holocene 10,3 (2000)pp.333-34f0

Temperature and

precipitation

reconstruction

in

southern Portugal

during the late

Maunder Minimum

(iw

1675-17 15)

Maria-Joao

Alcoforado,'

Maria.

de

Fatima

Nuines2

Joao

Carlos Garcia- and.

Joao

Paulo

Taborda.4

(Centro

de

Elstudos

Geogrdficos,

Universidade

de Lisboa

(FL

UL), Alameda

da

Universidade,

1600-214

Lisboa, Portugal; 2Depar/amento

de

Hist6ria, Paldcio

do

Vimioso,

Alpartado

94,

tiniversidade

de

Evora,

7001

E'vora.

Portzugal;

3Departamento

de

Geografia,

Faculdade de

Letras, Universidade do Porto,

Via

Panoradnica, 4000 Porto,

Portucgal;

4Escola Secundcria Gabriel Pereira, Rita

Dr Domingos

Rosado,

Z~urb.

3,

7000

Evora,

Portugal)

Received4N.-ovember 1998;revisedmanuscript accepted25July 1999

Abstract: This paper discusses theresearchcarriedouttocheck theclimantic characteristicsofthe lateMautnder Minimum (LMM) (AD1675-1715) in thesouthwestern partof the Iberian Peninsula andasanaid towards pressurepatteruisreconstructionintheNEAtlantic and Europe.Documentaryevidence reveals that interannual

precipitation variability was similarto the present one, although some very severe dry periods occurred (particularlyonein1694).Ontheotherhand, during theLMMtherewas ahigherpercentage ofcold winter

months, soel of themwith snowfall. Abriefcomparisonis madewithotherareasfromtheMediterranean.

Therelationships between weathersimilaritiesanddifferences forparticularmonths is analysed inthelight

A ofthe reconstructedsynopticalpatterns,andfutherresearch intohistorical climatscchange ofsouthernEurope

HOLOCENE

is

stUggested.

RESEARCH

PAPER Key

words:

Maunider Minirnum,

climatic reconstruction,

Portugal,Mediterranean area,

documentary

data.

Introduction

The Maunder Minimam relates to a period of reduced solar activity between 1645 and 1715 (Eddy, 1976). Maunder himself was a superintendent at Greenwich Observatory, whodiscussed the effectonclimatic oscillations ofanodifications in, solarspots attheend ofthenineteenthcentury.ThetermMaunderMinimum

hasbeen adoptedby severalclimatologiststocharacterizeaperiod

ofnotable Europeati temperature decrease and marked climate variability during die 'Little IceAge'. Mann e atl. (1998)

con-firmed recently that a highly significant correlation had been detected between solar irradiance and the Northern Hemisphere. temperature during theMaunder Minimum.

By 1994

enotguh

information hadbeengathered forthe r.con-struction of theclimateofcentral. western and northern Europe. TherewasinstrumentaldataforParis(PfisterandBareiss, 1994), cenatral England (Manley, 1]974; Siegenthaler, 1994), Z7.dich (Pister, 1994a) and winddataforOresund(DernIark) (Frichand

©D

Arnold 2000

Frvdendahl, 1994). as well as indexed data for Switzerland

(Pfister, 1988;Pfster,19941'),Germany (Glaseretat,1994),Italy

(Camanuffo andBaA, 1994),Bohemia and Moravia(Brizdilerat., 1994), Iceland(Ogilvie, 1995),the SE ofdieIberian Peninsula

(Balrriendos,

1994), aswell asothers(seeFrenizel etat., 1994).

Fromntheavailableinfonnation,agroupofclimatologistsmnade

thefirst synoipticinterpretation ofmon.thly weathermaps for the period 1675--1704(Wanneretal., 1994). However, datawasstill lacking and a conclusion could not be drawnas towhether the 'Little Ice Age' was a period of generalized cooling in Europe

ant the easternAtlanticor not.

Portugal islocated inthesouthwesternextremityofEurope,on

theboundary betweenthesubtropicalandthemid-latitude cir:ca-latimn regimes. Its climatic variability is related to the North Atlantic Oscillationandinformationaboutthis part ofEuropeis necessary for thereconstruction of climateovertheEurope/North

Atlantic sector (Luterbacher etal., 2000). The

present

research began byseekingdata inPortugal. aconmtry withnotraditionof

334 The Holocene 10(2000)

historical climatology research. The most abundant infotmation

referstoLisbon(38043'N, 9009'W,95;)and to Evora(338034'N, 7°54'W.309m; 140kmn eastofLisbon and whichhas a slightly more continental Mediterranean climate). The main sources used for climate reconstruction in southern Portugal are described irn the first sectionof thispaper.Inthesecondpart, temperatureand precipitaion evolution in southern Portugal are presented and synoptically interpreted.

Documentary sources

Instrumental data areextremely rare for the lateseventeenth and early eighteenth centuries (Bradley and Jones. 1995);so reliable documentarysources:hadtobeusedlinstead. In the case of Portu-gal. research focused on diaries, as well as on ecclesiastical,

Afi.ericordlias andmu-nicipal instituationalsouirces.

Thediary ofManuel de Almeida

The mostinteresting diaryfoundwasthe volume oftheMemdrias

fuisto;ricas de TJsboa. wri-tten by a certain Mvlanuel de Almeida between 7 November 1696 and 2April 1716, and edited by Antdnio Pina Cabral in 1948. Manuel de Ahleida has not beenl

identifiedbecause his name is very common. The onlything we

do know is that he was a laymain. 'The account is organized chronologically and, although non-meteorological news is the main thread throughout it, there are detailed descriptions of weather and of wh1at Manuel de Ahamida perceived to be its consequences. The fact that these descriptions may have been

exaggerated

wasborne in mindduring die analysis.In somecases, the author explicitly states his own doubts about dates - for instance: 'it snowed in lisbon on the 12th (or 3th?) ofMarch 1684'.This fact only lends itselftomakingthis document trust-worthy and it will benow critically analysed sinceitconstitutes, atthe present mom-tent, oneof our best sources.

Reported

events

All theinformation isqualitative in. nature, and therefore

subjec-tive.Theauthor mentions either short extremeweatherevents or writes about the weat'he-r for some months or parts ofmonths. Data on individual days,altshough interestinginthemselves, were

iot,usedforthemonthly reconstruction of the climate.The inten-sity of certain episodes, especially heavy

rciinfalls,

may be assessedthurough theircolnsequences. whichattimesaredescribed in oreatdetail.

Selection criteria

The texthighlights theperiodsbefore andafter thedaysin which noteworthyevernstakeplace, accordingtotheauthor: important

datesconcerningtheroyal family, suchasroyalbirths, christen-ings, weddings, funeralsordiuressions, theatrival and departure

of fleets to and fromn Brazil, battles, autos'-de-fe, fires, murders andreligious festivities. The onaly climnatic-hydrologic facts that deservemention inthemselvesarethe floods, largely urban. The inflatedprices of staplefoods,which ManueldeAlmeida associ-ates with die inaclemency of the weather, occasionally deserve hisattention.

The selection of facts depends on the date of writing. The authorstarts writingiIl 1696,andbrieflydescribeseventsbackto

1680 with thehelpofsomie scatterednotes.Thisfirstpartismore

concise, featuringanaverage of36 lines peryeair betwee-n 1680 and 1695, whereas thereare 100lines foreachyear after 16Q6.

Monthly variability of

the available

information

Information is very unequally distributed

throughout

each year, andmore

frcequent

in the winter months,particularly January,for the following reasons: (a) eachyearly chronicle opens witi an

account of the weather conditions atthe ousetof each year; (b) there would, infact,have been several extremely coldmontns of January duringtheperiod covered in the text. Incontrast, there ismuchlessinformation about summers. Duringthese37years, thereisinformation aboutonlyei gatsummersagainst25winters. Other individualsources

Some other individual (and not institutional) Sources 1have also beenused.Mostofthemnconsistof manuscripts writtenby Inen-bersofthe educated class ofthatperiod andarerelatedtosocial. cultural andmeteorologicaleve-nts. The writings ofJos6 Somares daSilva and the priestJoki BaptistadeCastrowereexanined.

J.S. da Silvawasatmember of-heRoyalAcadenyof

Histoty.

Approximatelyeveryfortnight between1701 and 1716. hewrote his 'Gazettewritten in the form ofaletter'(CaZetacompostaem forma decarta). which often included informationaboutextremne

weather events or meteorological characteristics of a period

(manwucript;

Silva, 1931).J.B. Castro studied inaJesuit school andforsometimehelivedinRome, where he workedfor Pope Clement XI1I. When he returned to Portugal. he organized a

Chronological Opuscuile (Oprivr'tcr chronoldgico), in which he wrote onimportantevents inPortugal everyyear.Meteorological

news about 1704 and 1709 was foundinthis

m.anuscript.

Ecclesiastical

sources

Pro-pluvia

and

pro-serenitate

rogation ceremonies

Droughts and excessive precipitation,

the

latter in the form of

rainfall of devastating proportions or of excessive year-long hmnidity, werepriorto the nineteenth century inmost parts of EuropetakenasGod'spunishnent.Hisforgivenesshadtherefore

to be sotght by means of variousreligious rites, individual as

wellascollective.InSpain, pro-piuvia processionswelecommoln,

organiized

by the local ecclesiastical authorities and funded by civil authorities,theTownHallsinparticular.Thesystematicuse

of the Minutes of the Chapter Edicts

(Acordios

do CslAbdo) allowed Barriendos (1997) to reconstructthe chief drought epi-sodes between the fifteenth and nineteenth

centluries

for several

Spanish

cities.

In Portugal, however, the rogation ceremonies that

deserved

written notice were rare during the LMM. Only fourreferences were found. Twopro-pluvia ceremonies were recorded: one of them in 1694 with

supplications

foranendto adroughttchat

hnad

lastedayear and anotherone attheendof

th1e

winter 1712. The pro-serentateceremoniestookplacein 1684 and 1708.Ongoing

researchhis revealed thatrogation ceremonies were carried out

morefrequentlyduingthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcentury.

Other

sources

about

weather

phenomena

T1emost usefulinfaonnation found in ecclesiasticalnews refers

to periods ofexcessive

rainfall

when religious events, suchas

processions, hadto be postponed. In Evorathere are

ntumterou-s

references torainy spells inJanuary, mostly withregards to die procession.onStSebastian'sday (20 January)andsometimes pre-vious andfollowing weeks.The 'weather' was important

when-everithindered theregularcourseofroutinereligiousceremonies,

andthisisthereasonwhyit ismentionedatall inseverat

ecclesi-astical

docunients.

For theLMM period.however,onlytwo obser-vations were found among the

Minutes

of the Chapter Edicts

(Acorddos

do

Cabido)

and from the Book of Memoirs and Records(Livtro

dr

Lembran~as

e

Asvrnzov).

bothfromiEvora.

Miseric6rdias

sources

The

Myisericzjrdia.s

werecharitableinstitutionsfoundedinthe six-teenth century inPortugal

by

Queen Leonor (wife ofMcanuel

I)

atthe time of thediscoveries. They were set

uip

in

manly

towns

Maria-tJoao Alcoforadoeta!.: Climate of thelateMaunder Minimum (AD 1675-1715) in southern

Portugal

335

or secular Christians) with the aim of giving spiritual andmaterial supportto thelocal people. Each.Misericdrdia.haditsownchurch. All sort ofimportant records were gathered in the Books of Minutes and Recollections (Livros d- 4ctars e Lembrancgas):

religiousfestivitiesorganizedbyeachconfraria,fooddistribution,

health care. etc. Weatherinformation was sometimes appended tothe description of theAfiser/icdrdiaactivities,anlddata referring to 1704 andfiromi 1710 to1715 was used.

Municipal sources

Several referencesto 'weatherconditions' werefound in munici-pal sources. The minutes of the Lisbon and Evora town halls (Arcts das Cdmarav Myunicipais) were used. As clinmatic

paroxystnstriggeredtheimplementation ofanumber ofmeasures

aimedatattenuatingtheirrespectiveconsequences, thesesources

haveprovedtobequiteuseful. Informiation aboutwatershort'agre

orpoor-qualitywater, insufficient wheatproductionanddecrease of milk.or meat production was found inthe Evora Town Hall minutes. In the Lisbondocumnentsnoweatier-related information hasbeen foundfor the LateMaunderMininiumn.Theinformiation

from Evora wascarefully aanalysedandcomparedwithn the well-known historical facts. Reportsoneconomic andsocialmeasures taken were used whenever its climatic causes were explicitly stated. When Por-tugal tookpartinthe Warofthe Spanish Suc-cession between 1705 and 1715, there was -no wheat in,Evora becausemost of it was sent to the battlefront, andconsequently

no diata wts extracted from the Evora Town Hall minutes for thisperiod.

Methods

Climaticreconstruction

Inordertoreconstruct the climateduringtheLMM,wechoseto

adapt the methodology developed by Pfister (1988: 1995) and U.sedby otherresearchers such asB.arriendos (1994) and(Glaser

(1996).

Eachmonth was

given

anindex

according

to available

information. If sufficient ptroxy information (in a quantitative

fonn) isavailable.the value of the indices concerningtemperature andprecipitation varies between a maximum deficit fora parti-cular phenomenon

(-3)

and a maximurn surfeit

(-±3),

witll

-thie

value 0 corresponding to monthsregardedas'normal'.Index set-tingis a ratherdelicate taskwhich,in the presentcase,depended on the intensity of the depicted consequences (qualitative

information). Therefore, only 'theindices+1 (hightemperatureor

heavy rainfalls) and --I (coldweatheror drought episode) were

assigned toeachmonth.Whencombined,theseyieldtoseasonal valuesranging-fi-om+3to-3 andtoannual indices from+12to

--12. Thevalue 0referseithiertoindications ofnormal conditions

or absence ofinformation. The lack of information very often

meansthatthemonthwas anormaloneinview of thefactthat the weatherwasnotconsideredsomethingtowriteabout.However, it cannotbeconcludedthat all the monthsforwhichnoinformation

exists werenotmal ones.

Theindicesweresetindependently for Lisbon (1680-1716) and Evora (1675-1715). O-n the basis ofpresent-day climatic varia-bility(Alcoforado, 1984:Maherasetal.,1994) andthrough com-parisonof the 17mionthsfor whichtherewasparallel information for Lisbonatid for Evora. an index was developed forsouthern Portugal basedon-thejointdataforthetwocities.

Available

data

The,detail ofthe monthly infornation,whichwasusedforclimate reconstruction isobviouslynot always thesame. SoIneexamples

are given in Table l. As ean be noted, even one single source may

give

sufficient direct

infornatiorn

concerning

amonthor

sev-eralweeks. Fortheperiod 1675-1715,thereareobservations

con-cerming hydric phenomena in 33% of the 480monthls. From those, 83.8%of the data was obtainedfirom one source, 15.2% fiom two different sources aid 1% from three sources. When more than onesourcewasavailable, no contradictions were found excepton two occasions. Inthis case no informtation was considered. Out ofthe total setofmoinths, 201,% provide tihermal data. In this case theonly sourceofdirect information was the diary of Manuel de Almeida (in Cabral, 1948). Ifweconsider winterseparately then thermal datafor35%ofthe months is available.

Precipitationdata istherefore more reliable, aflthough interest-ing thermal informniationwas extracted.

Temperature and precipitation

reconstruction between

Aw 1675 and

1715

Temperature

The resultsfor theLMM4 werecompared witha recent reference period 1961-90. For this reference period, monthfs were assignred --J index, when their temperature and/or precipitation value wasinferiortodiemean-I standard deviation.-I

cotre-sponds to valuessuperiortothemean+1 standard deviation. Withregardtothe annual temperat-ureindex, there isa large differeince between the percentage of 'normal' months between

fte LMM (81%,,) and the referenceperiod 1961-90

(53%/l).

We maytherefore suppose thatalotof information islackingandi.t isadvisablenot to drawany conclusions(Fig-ure 1, right).

If, onthe otherhand, weconsiderwinter(Figure 1, left) then

tihereis only a 14% difference in the percentages of''normnal'

months

(6734

forthe LMM and53% for 1961-Q90. In this case, we may analysethegraphandconclude that-the

11MM

wascolder: 28% of cold months during theLMM, against only 7% durilng

the recent period. Asstated before,most of theinfortnation we possessreferstocoldwirners (17 outof40).Onlyfortwoyears (outof40)didwe

finds

referencestomildwinters(1699and 1707;

Figure 3). On the otherhand,thereisa'higherpercentage of 'war-mer' months during the 1961---90 periodthan during the LMM

(Figure 1).

Another factthat may confirm that therewereverycoldspells datingthe LMM is relatedtothepresence ofsnowfall. Inthe37 years spannedby the diary ofManuel deAhneida. snowfall in

Lisbon

is reported

eight

times (December 1680; January 1693, 1703, 1704, 1709, 1716; March 1684; April 1699) which shows acleardifferen-ceitnrelationtopresent conditions(onlytwo snow-fallsduringthelarst 40 years,both inFebruary 1.954),andsuggests that the 'feeling' ofcoldness,asexpressed bytheauthor, maybe duetolowertemperaturesthanthoseregistered today,aswellas todifferent synoptical patternsorhigherfrequencyofcirculation typesthat occur nowadays

(Luterbacher,

1998). On 1 February 1954, for example, it snowed in Lisbon whentihere was adeep depression, centred at the east ofthe Iberian

Peninsiula;

it was

associated with ameridional circulation pattern (up to 500 hPa) and advention ofavery cold

anld

relativelyunstableai-mass.This particular synoptical situation will not be visible on die meani

monthly pressure pattern reconstruction (Luterbacher et ci., in ADVICE FinalReport, 1998: Luterbacheretal., 2000), because diesnow

spells

neverlastedasufficiently longtime.

Accordingtooursources. die 1680s were 'normal' exceptfor the coldwintersof1681.,atnd1688(Fig(ure2).Unlike other places

inEurope,the years 1683/84and

1684/85

were notparticularly

cold(or information is lacking'. Nevertheless. there were some

very severe cold spells in the 1690s (winters in 1692/93 and

1693/94; andsprings in1694and 1698; Figure3). Accordingto

FontTullot(1988). this decadewasthe coldest of the 'LittleIce

Age' in Spain. Forthis courntry,the severewinterof1693/94 is mentioned by the aforementioned source. byMatute y Gaviria

336 The Hlolocene 10(2000)

Table1 Listing of available data relativetofour of the studiedmonths

1 source: January1703

Precipitationindex:- I; temperature index:

-1-20:cold weather. rain and snow; NWwind;20-25- no rain. 25-31: coldand rainagain,numerous floods(Aimeida,inCabral. 1948).

2 sources: January 1694

Precipitation index: 1:temperatureindex: --I

It wasextremelycoldinDecember 1693 and the weatherwasverycold anddryduringthefollowingyear.Itdidnotrain betweenmid-December

1693andJune 1694.The harvests wereverypoorand the peoplewerehungry. In April and the following months,severalrogation ceremoniestook

placein-Lisbon(M. Alrreiida,inCabral, 1948: 30-32.).Thespringdrynessiscontfirnedin theMunicipal soutrcesofEvora, andthelack of' winterrain maybe

,nferred

(Acta da

Camara

Municipalde

Evor, Veo.

XXVII,Folio 11,

28/5/1694).

3 sources: January andFebruary 1708

Procipitation ijndjces.+ i;notenmperature indicos

InLisbon. there was nodaywithoutrainin January. In February andMarch itrainedeven more(Aimeida. inCabral, 1948: 65-66).Frommid-December

unt.. the end oflanDuaryitrainednearly everlydayand there were very frequent andintensefloods,causingseveraldamages(Silva,imanuscript,

15February 1708). Ieavyrainscontinuedto fallinFebruaryandMarch, causing rnumerousfloods(Silva,manuscript, 20 and 29February 1108). On

2i)February,itwasdecided thatspecial prayers toGodshouldbe made on accountof theheavyrains inEvora(Codicecs Eboren.sis Capituli14 VI).

Ninlter.

I,'illperall!',t'indrlx~

jl, satNI::;'."l';!

figure I Tremperature indices

(sr'tthernPoltugalt.).

YeaF.

*l ' DI )(,I ")o:

referrilg to the LMMhl and 1906 --90

AutUmni _ ' xI jI

X.I

Spring 5i/~ ti

.,~

~

Winter I~SI -,1 Surrmer 01 1)V\_ I( I()

Yo.l s( I7f5-I7i51

Fioure2 Annual temperatureindexforsouthernPortugal between1675

iand J7175 (seetextfordetails).

(1886)and by Rodrigo (1996). Accordingto Camuffo and Enzi

(1994: 246), 1694 was a cold winter, but notone of the most

severeinnorthern Italy,and the Venetian lagoonsdid notfreeze

(Camuffo. 1.987).

The pressure patterns reconrlstrUction (Luterbacher et al., In ADVICE Final Report, 1998; Luteerbacheret al.. 2000) showed

that duiring theLM3tMtheairpressurewas frequently higher over

NEScandinavia.particularlyinwinter.This fact ledtoadvection of cold atnddryairtowardscentralandsouthernEurope.The

fin-lingswithregardto Portugal showthat thiscold advection also reacheddtemostsouthwesterlypartsofEurope.Agood example

Figure3 SeasonaltemperatureindeAforsouthern Portugalbetween 1675

and 1.715 (autuin = Septenmber-Nosemnber, winter =

Decemuber-F'ebruarv,etc.).

of this occurred in January and February 1694, when an

anti-cyclone

centred over

the.Atlantic

butspreadovernorthernEurope

causing

NE flux towards southwesternEurope (this was avery

dryperiodaswell).

Themain differencesbetweenPortugal and central

Eutrpe

in winter existtowards the endof the LMM.After 1700, -de cold periodcontinu-edin

Portugal,

especiallyin1700,alndbetween171 1 and 1715.while further north andeast the

temperature

rVose

(With

the exception of1709).

According

to pressurepattern

reconstruc-tion (Luterbacher er

a!.,

in AJD)VICE Final Repo-rt, 1998;

Luter-bacher etal.,2000),in

somne

ofthe

nsonths

(such asNovember

1707), an. Atlantic anticyclone spreadoverEuropeatthelatitude ofPortugaloriginating acontinentaleasternflow towards

POrtu-gal. Simultaneouslya westerly air-flow occurredin western and northernEurope, causing

relatively

mild winters.

The coolest period of the LMM occurred earlier in central Europe(1690s) thanineastern E-urope

(beginning

of'the eight-eenthcentury) (Pfister, 1994a: 296). In southwestern Europethe coldest period wouldhavealso occurredatthebeginning ofthe

eighteenthcentury. Thewinter temperature decrease in Portugal,

particularly attheend ofthe LMM. is

comparable

wsi the one

referredtobySerre-Bachet(1994: 271)atgrid point35'N-10"W

(southwestwards

from

Portugal),

'where thecooling is recorded only

fromt

1703'.Thusitseemsthat insouthernEuropethe

great-est similarities cicurred in places at

the

sane lontgitude. More

15

Maria-tJao Alcoforadoeta!.: (Climateofthe late MaunderMinimum(AD1675-1715) insouthernPortugal 337 N'ilnl'ter' oN 4, Iadc\ i L'2, I I_I I -)(I

Figure4 Precipitatono indices

referrin~g

to thre LMM and 196 1 90

(southern Portugal).

evidence isnecessarytoprovethis, butwecanl suppose thateven

smnall longitude va-riations highly contributedto explain climate

variabilityin.souhernEurope, owingtofrequentmeridional cir-culation.

During thle 1LMM summ.rers, Ca negative pressure anomaly

occurredovertheBritish Isles(Luterhacher, 1998; 1uxerbacheret

aL, 2000) That means that strong westerlies were blowing

towardes western Europe, where low summer temperatures occurred. In southernPortugalthere ishardlyanyrecordednews

about cool sumnmer months

(only

June 17121) or about

very

hot

summaters, except: 1687and 1697tonehot monthperyear); 1705, 17071and 1710(twomonths peryear); 17I14and 1715 (thEree hot monthisboth years). Duringmost of theeLMM period, thelimit of the perturbated western circulation might have been located northwardsofdieIberianPeninsula,which could have been

'pro-tected' by the AzoresAnticyclone.Daringthetwovery

long-last-ing 1714 and 17 summers. advectionfrom th Fe and SF may haveoccurred.

Precipitation

There is more information relative to rainfall than temperature

duing

theLMN.Inthiscase,however,no

large

differenceswere

found betweentpie

frequencies

of dry and wetmonths betweein thetwo periods,as canbe seelninFigure4.in southiernPortugal, tJh-e LMM was characterized

by

a great precipitation variability

(Figure

5), aswasthecasein the

eighteenth

andearly nineteenth centuries(Alcofradoe,atl, 1997;and

ongoing

research)and dur-ing the

subsequent

instrumentalperiod(Alcoforado, 1

984).

Most ofthewinter ionthcs we-rewetor 'normnal',except 1681,

1689, 1693 and 1694, as well as the last winters ofthe LMM:

17111-12 and 17714--1715 (Figure6). Nowadaystheprecipitation variabilitv in Lisbon is more dependent on the duratiot ofthe rainyseason, i.e.. rainfall inspringand aut-umn, thanonrain inten-sity inwinter (Alcoforado, 1984). That wasalso the caseduring theLMM. Ilaridyanyinformation was foundrelatingto the aut-umn itt the first 15 years ofthe LMM, but afterthedrought of 1694greatin-terannual variabilitytook place inautumn,with rain-fall deficit periods also in 1697, 1700, 1707 and 1714-15. In spring,dryseasons werefound to haveoccurredatthebeginning of the series (1676, 1680). in 1694, in 1698 and at the end of tfheperiod.

Accordingtooursources, therewerefrequent drouglt periods thatoccurredsimultaneously with coldspells,inwinterand

early

spring.Their synoptic causesare presented above.

Ifawinterdrought continuedintospring, then the consequences in agriculture andwatershortagebecamesignilicant.In 1694, the drought lasted froom January 1693 until October 1694 (shortly

interrupted bya'normal'autumnin 1693) andtherewererogation ceremoniesinLisbon.There can beno doubt ofthewater short-age.This droughtoccurred all overPortugal and in central ansd southern.Spain (Toledo and Sevilla; Barriendos, 1997). InItaly

there is reference to a dry year(Carnuffo andEnzi, 1994: 246). Theother long droughts ofthe LMM inPortugal werebetween March and June 1680. winter 1681, spring 1698, spring 1.699, spring andautumn 1700,winter 1712 and between January 1714 andJanuary 1716 (Figure6). For a greatpan of theyear 1714, the drought stretched from Portugal to Italy and tothe eastern Mediterranean(FontTullot. 1988; Barriendos, 1997.Camulfoand

Enzi, 1994; Grove and Conterio, 1994).

InPortugal,summerisnormallya dryseason (1931-60inean

precipitation in Lisbon in July wsas 3.1mm, and in August 4.3 mm). With only one exceptionin1701 (Figure6). noLMM summerrainfall excess is in;dicated inour sources; this was not

the case further north in Europe. Thereasonis the samneas the aforementionedone, which explains whytemperatures werenot

particularly low: thewesterlies donot seem tohaveaffected

Por-tugalinthe sumnmer.Noprecipitation deficitwasinfenrreSdbecause of thelack of rain in July and Augu.st, asthis isusual in

sowth-ernPortugal. Autumn IL'.l ,''. Spring .' 'a) '-rFll' f''--5 Winter I, ,,; ,,~, Summer I''t§'~( if v_ V/ _ lI'S', |} B 54,, 1' -. i

Figure5 Annu alpreciptitationindexforsouthern.Portu-1gal betwtee) 1675 aid 1715(seetextfordetails).

Figure6 SeasonalprecipitationindexforsouthernPortugal between1675

and

I715.

(auitmn

' September-November; winter=

December-Febru-ary; etc.).

338 The Hlolocene 10

(2000)

Discussion

The scarcity (orthe absenceofcontinuity)ofdata referringtothe

NMM fromthedifferent countriesofthe Mediterranean(does not

yetpermituistoanalysequantitativelyandsystematicallythe,main

differences betweenthern, as was done in arecent study where temperatures forom Lisbon, Barcelona. Florence, Malta, Athens,

and Jerusalem (1860-1990) w'ere conipared in order to identify

anomalously warm andcold months inthe Mediterranean basin (Maheraiset a1.,2000). Thespatialdistribution.ofthepositive and negativeihermalanoomalieswere explainedinthe lightofthe

dif-ferent circulationpatterns in thisarea.

Nevertheless, on the basisof

availahble

information (Catnuffo,

19'87.

Camuffo and Enzi, 1994; 1995; Le Roy Ladurie, 1983;

Groveand Conterio, 1994;Ban'iendos, 1997;Setre-Bachet, 1994;

Serre-Bachetetal, 1995), we may state that hotmonths or cold

monthison,theonehand, anddry orhumnid months onthe other,

did not oftencoincide from tfhe Iberian Peninsula to Italy, and evenless so toGreece,duringthe LMM.

Meridional circulation originatesnormallygreater weather

dif-ferences withiln the Mediterranean tharn zonal circutirtion; bu.t

wave amplitude governs temiperature and precipitation spatial

variability. For exanple, in March 1700, according to sea-level

pressure reconstru.ction (Luterbacher et a., in ADVICE Final

Report. 1998; Luterbacheret at..2000). astufaceanticyclone

pro-duced a drought in Portugal and Spain (Barcelona, Girona and

Toledo

.annual

values in BarriendOos, 1997), while adeep surface

depressioninducedheavyrainfall innorthern Italy(Camuffoanid

Enzi,

1994: 246-47). Itprobably also rained in southern France, becauseGroveaidConterio(1994)statethat the olive production was spoiledandLeRoy Ladurie (1983) writes thatthevine

har-vestwassix days late. Northeasterly airflowcaused coldwea-ther

andsnow-fall intheeasternMediterranean, includinga greatdeal

ofsnow

inr

Crete (Grove andConterio, 1994).

Zonalcirculationismore pronetooriginateweathersimilarities

within the Mediterranean. By western circulattion, rainy weather

occursinPortugal and Spain, sometimes also in southernFrance andItaly.Wintertemperatureswillthen be highall overthe

Medi-terranean.(Maheras etal.,

21}000).

Easterncirculation often

gener-atei dry weather, cold in winterandhot in summer. Maheraset

at (2000) verified that in winter when the cold air, proceeding

fromnnortheastEurope,movesalongthesouthernflankofalarge

anticyvcloneorientedE-WV, from.Jerusalemto Lisbon,then

nega-tivyethermal deviations tothe nlieanoccur all overthe Mediter-ranean (Maheraset al., 2000: Figure lb). In January 1714. a somewhat similar situationmay have occurredt, as confirm-edby sea-level pressurerecons1tr`uction (Lutterbacher er1at., in ADVICE

FinalReport. 1998).Cold weatheranddroughtwererecordedfor Portugal, northern.pai (datafor 1714asawhole inBarriendos,

1997) and eastern Mediterraneaan. 'This was 'possibly thie miost

severe and widespread winter drought(. .aaffectingthe whole

region from centralande southern Greece to the Black seat area'

tGroveandConiterio, 1994: 275).Thepresenceof ablocking high

coveringlargeareasofEuropeexplainsthatthe droughtwasalso

recordedinBohemiaandMoravia(Brazdil et al.. 1994),England

(Siegenthaler, 1994),

Gernmany

(CGlaseret al.. 1994)and Switzer-land(Pfister. 1994b).

January 1709 is a mionth which deserves further

st-udy,

as it was extremelycoldinalargepartofwesternandcentral Europe (Pfistereta!,1994).'InmanypartsofEuropethismayhave been

the coldest winter month within Phe last five hundred years'

(Pfisteret al., 1994: 345). Janulary 1709 wasalso extremely cold

inthewesterrn andcentral Mediterranean: thereis evidencelefer-ring toLisbon, Seville (Palomo, 1984), Girona (m-nanuscriptfrom Constans),southern France (LeRoyLadurie. 1983). northernItaly

(Camuffo,1987; Camuffo and P.nzi,1994: 246-47) and forner Yugoslavia.The lagoons of Veniceandthe riveratGirona froze

and allowed the crossing of people (Girona) and ofcarriages and artillery (Venice). Palontowritesabout an'unu-suallycoldwinter' in Seville. It snowed in Lisbon, Girona and Venice.Thecold par-oxysm took place during the first decade of January. Lachiver (1991.quo-tedbyPfisteretaI, 1994) writes that theadvectionof Arc-tic air progressed across France,from.north tosouth,firom 5 to 7January. These results tie in with our soLrces, where it is clear that the coldwavebeganon the6th inVeniceand southern France, on the 7th in Girona and on the 8th inLisbon7, showing that the cold ainmass also progressed across the Pyrenees. The cold wavelasted three weeks in Portugal, Catalonia. France and northern Italy.

Wemaysupposetherewasalargeplanetaryridgeonthe

Atlan-tic, giving rise along its eastern border to nioitherly (or northeasterly) winds in western Europe (including western and central Mediterranean areas). This interpretation ispartially sup-ported by the surface pressure reconstruction for January 1709 (Luterbacher et at, in ADVICE Final Report, 1998) in whicth there is also a low over central Italy (andprobably avalleyonthe upperlevels ofthetroposphere). Thiswouldexplaintdeinstability

which gave rise to sinowfall. However, as the weather was not homogeneous throughout thewholemonth,a moredetailed press-urereconstructionwillbenecessaryto uallyunderstandu this cold

wave, which does nwot seem to have progressed further east.

According toGroveandColnterio(1994), there isnoe evidence. of cold weatherin the eastern Mediterranean andmore specifically' in. Greece in

January

1]709.

hi February and March, neither very cold weather nor s-1now

werereportedinPortugal,unlikefurthernorth inEurope andItaly where allthe winter nionths wereverycold and snowy (Camuffo andEnzi, 1994: 246). This wasprobablyduetoadifferentrelative position of theanticyclone overtheAtlantic and the direction of the airflow, that arrived from the west in

Portugal,

accordinlg to

the surface pressure reconstruction (Luterbaclher et at., in ADVICE Final Report, 1998). However, as swted above, these maps represent monthly means and a study based ondaily data would bevery interesting, considering that this period represents a very cold spell during the already warmerperiod in nortbern Europe (Glaserei al., 1994).

Conclusion

TheLMM was rather acold period inPortugal atleastafter1693 and particularlyin winter and spring. During dite 1690sthe cold spellscoincided with those of central, western and southern Eur-ope, when strong high,-pressure centres occurred over northern Europe. hI the early 1700s. when temperature wasalready rising

inotherplaces, such asEngland (Manley, 1974)and central Fur-ope(Pfister, 1994a),therewere still somever-y cold wintermonths insouthernPortugal (with relation to Portuguese standards). The early 1700s alsorepresent thecoldestperiodatgrid point

350N--100W, southwestwards from the Algarve (Serre-Bachaet, 1994). Some of the cold months in Portugal occurred during

westerly

circulation in central Europe. northwards from an anticyclone

whichoriginated cold eastern airflowtowardstheIberian Penin-sula.However, the lack of dataforalonger period doesnot

permit

us to state whetherthe LMM cooling in soutaern Europe was

exceptional or not. According toSerre-Bachet

(199-1),

'as far as

these reconstructions, maLily based on tree-rings, are reliable ( -)?tdiheMaunderMinimum coolingwasnotexceptionalin

com-parison with other cool episodes' (p. 273).

Precipitation interannual variability is similar to the present one. Evenduringdiepresent decade. verytiry yearshave alter-nated with otherswith.excessiverainfall(1996-97and 1997--98).

Rogation ceremonies were a rarity duri-ng the LMIM. and their number increased during the eighteenth century (Taborda, oral

Maria-tJao Alcoforado at at.: Climate ofthfe lateMaunder Minimum (AnD167/5-1715)in southern

Portugal

339

information) which confirms the 'normality' of precipitation

interannual variability of the LMM. Subsequent to heavy rains,

great material damages and even loss of'life in the LMM are

referredtoin outrsources. Nowadays,the consequencesofheavy

rainfalls inPortugal seem' tobe gettingworseandworse;but this is also duetIothehumanchoice oflanduse(construction near-orin dryvalleys,riverchannelling,deforestation).InNovember 1997. there were deaths and severedamage intheAlente~jo (the regionwhere Evora islocated) due-toflash floods, witha recur-renceperiod.of 50or .100 years andsubsequentlyforgotten bythe

following generations.However,thoseextremeweatherevent-sare anormalcharacteristic ofaMediterraneanclimate antidcannot be

directlyattributedto 'globalclimate change%'.

Thelatitudinial inflUence and theconsequent exposureto

west-ernm circulattion (either,anticyclonical orpe-rtubatech oreastern

air-flujx is not,th-e only keytoexplain the similarities ordifferences in thermal orhygric excesseswithin1. the Mediterraneanarea. The present study and Maherasetal. (2000)confirm that 'theinterest lies in the discontinuityof'climiatic. conditions inthe two halves oftheMediterr-aneanbasin' (Grove and Coniterio, 1994: 284),but they also Sh1owthatspatial variability is sniorenuanced thanthat,

giventhat meridional circulationisresponsibleforgreaterspatial

weatherdifferences thanjusteast-west contrasts. More data anld

jointresearch wvill henecessaryinordertoachievean

understanid-ing of climatc teleconnections Within the Mediterraneanarea as

well asofitshistorical climatechange.

Acknowledgements

The study wascarryiedoutwith thesupport of the ADVICEpro.-ject CF F-,'.NVN4-CT95-0l.29-PTL951090'). The autlhors are particularly inidebtedtoProfessor HeinzWXanner,who suggesitedtheir partci-pationin theADVICEproject,Professor Chris-tian.Pisterfor the

stimulatingandusefuldiscussion about thistopic,Professor Dario Camnuffoforsending,severalpapersreferringtoItaly. D-rMariano Barriendos forsending uis unpublished infor-mationand datafrom

MvatuteyGaviria, Palomo andConstans,PAGES for, finanicinga

trip to a very productive meeting in Barcelona as well as the referees for theirpertinent suggestions.

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