Zbornik 12. mednarodne multikonference
INFORMACIJSKA DRUŽBA − IS 2009
Zvezek A
Proceedings of the 12th International Multiconference
INFORMATION SOCIETY − IS 2009
Volume A
Inteligentni sistemi
Vzgoja in izobraževanje v informacijski družbi
Izkopavanje znanja in podatkovna skladišča (SiKDD 2009) Sodelovanje, programska oprema in storitve v informacijski družbi
Kognitivne znanosti Robotika Kognitonika
Druga mini konferenca iz teoretičnega računalništva Intelligent Systems
Education in Information Society
Data Mining and Data Warehouses (SiKDD 2009) Collaboration, Software and Services in Information Society
Cognitive Sciences Robotics Cognitonics
The Second Mini Conference on Theoretical Computer Science
Uredili / Edited by
Marko Bohanec, Matjaž Gams, Vladislav Rajkovič, Tanja Urbančič, Mojca Bernik, Dunja Mladenić, Marko Grobelnik, Marjan Heričko, Urban Kordeš, Olga Markič, Jadran Lenarčič, Leon Žlajpah, Andrej Gams, Olga S. Fomichova, Vladimir A. Fomichov,
Andrej Brodnik http://is.ijs.si
12.−16. oktober 2009 / October 12th–16th, 2009 Ljubljana, Slovenia
Uredniki:
prof. dr. Marko Bohanec prof. dr. Matjaž Gams prof. dr. Vladislav Rajkovič prof. dr. Tanja Urbančič Mojca Bernik dr. Dunja Mladenić Marko Grobelnik prof. dr. Marjan Heričko dr. Urban Kordeš prof. dr. Olga Markič prof. dr. Jadran Lenarčič dr. Leon Žlajpah dr. Andrej Gams dr. Olga S. Fomichova dr. Vladimir A. Fomichov dr. Andrej Brodnik
Založnik: Institut »Jožef Stefan«, Ljubljana Tisk: Birografika BORI d.o.o.
Priprava zbornika: Mitja Lasič, Jana Krivec Oblikovanje naslovnice: Ernest Vider - Erc Tiskano iz predloga avtorjev
Naklada: 150 Ljubljana, oktober 2009 Konferenco IS 2009 sofinancirata
Ministrstvo za visoko šolstvo, znanost in tehnologijo Institut »Jožef Stefan«
Informacijska družba ISSN 15819973
CIP - Kataložni zapis o publikaciji
Narodna in univerzitetna knjižnica, Ljubljana 659.2:316.42(082)
659.2:004(082)
MEDNARODNA multikonferenca Informacijska družba (12 ; 2009 ; Ljubljana)
Zbornik 12. mednarodne multikonference Informacijska družba - IS 2009, 12.-16. oktober 2009 : zvezek A = Proceedings of the 12th International Multiconference Information Society - IS 2009, October 12th-16th, 2009, Ljubljana, Slovenia : volume A / uredili, edited by Marko Bohanec ... [et al.]. - Ljubljana : Institut Jožef Stefan, 2009. - (Informacijska družba, ISSN 1581-9973)
Vsebina na nasl. str.: Inteligentni sistemi = Intelligent systems ; Vzgoja in izobraževanje v informacijski družbi = Education in information society ; Izkopavanje znanja in podatkovna skladišča (SiKDD 2009) = Data mining and data warehouses (SiKDD 2009) ; Sodelovanje, programska oprema in storitve v informacijski družbi = Collaboration, software and services in information society ; Kognitivne znanosti = Cognitive sciences ; Robotika = Robotics ; Kognitonika = Cognitonics ; Druga mini konferenca iz teoretičnega računalništva = The second mini conference on theoretical computer science
ISBN 978-961-264-010-1
1. Informacijska družba 2. Information society 3. Bohanec, Marko, 1958-
247787264
PREDGOVOR MULTIKONFERENCI INFORMACIJSKA DRUŽBA 2009
V svojem dvanajstem letu ostaja multikonferenca Informacijska družba (http://is.ijs.si) ena vodilnih srednjeevropskih konferenc, ki združuje znanstvenike z različnih raziskovalnih področij, povezanih z informacijsko družbo. V letu 2009 smo v multikonferenco povezali rekordnih enajst neodvisnih konferenc. Informacijska družba postaja vedno bolj zapleten socialni, ekonomski in tehnološki sistem, ki je pritegnil pozornost vrste specializiranih konferenc v Sloveniji in Evropi. Naša multikonferenca izstopa po širini in obsegu tem, ki jih obravnava.
Rdeča nit multikonference ostaja sinergija interdisciplinarnih pristopov, ki obravnavajo različne vidike informacijske družbe ter poglabljajo razumevanje informacijskih in komunikacijskih storitev v najširšem pomenu besede. Na multikonferenci predstavljamo, analiziramo in preverjamo nova odkritja in pripravljamo teren za njihovo praktično uporabo, saj je njen osnovni namen promocija raziskovalnih dosežkov in spodbujanje njihovega prenosa v prakso na različnih področjih informacijske družbe tako v Sloveniji kot tujini.
Na multikonferenci bo na vzporednih konferencah predstavljenih 300 referatov, vključevala pa bo tudi okrogle mize in razprave. Referati so objavljeni v zbornikih multikonference, izbrani prispevki pa bodo izšli tudi v posebnih številkah dveh znanstvenih revij, od katerih je ena Informatica, ki se ponaša z 33-letno tradicijo odlične znanstvene revije.
Multikonferenco Informacijska družba 2009 sestavljajo naslednje samostojne konference:
• Inteligentni sistemi
• Kognitivne znanosti
• Kognitonika
• Mondilex
• Robotika
• Rudarjenje podatkov in podatkovna skladišča (SiKDD 2009)
• Sodelovanje, programska oprema in storitve v informacijski družbi
• Soočanje z demografskimi izzivi v Evropi
• Status in vloga tehniških in naravoslovnih poklicev v državi
• Vzgoja in izobraževanje v informacijski družbi
• 2. Minikonferenca iz teoretičnega računalništva 2009
Očitno finančna recesija ni zmanjšala zanimanja za informacijsko družbo; nasprotno, letošnja konferenca je rekordna v več pogledih, recimo glede na število sodelujočih konferenc.
Soorganizatorji in podporniki konference so različne raziskovalne institucije in združenja, med njimi tudi ACM Slovenija. Zahvaljujemo se tudi Ministrstvu za visoko šolstvo, znanost in tehnologijo za njihovo sodelovanje in podporo. V imenu organizatorjev konference pa se želimo posebej zahvaliti udeležencem za njihove dragocene prispevke in priložnost, da z nami delijo svoje izkušnje o informacijski družbi. Zahvaljujemo se tudi recenzentom za njihovo pomoč pri recenziranju.
V letu 2009 sta se programski in organizacijski odbor odločila, da bosta podelila posebno priznanje Slovencu ali Slovenki za izjemen prispevek k razvoju in promociji informacijske družbe v našem okolju. Z večino glasov je letošnje priznanje pripadlo prof. dr. Vladislavu Rajkoviču. Čestitamo!
Franc Solina, predsednik programskega odbora Matjaž Gams, predsednik organizacijskega odbora
FOREWORD - INFORMATION SOCIETY 2009
In its 12th year, the Information Society Multiconference (http://is.ijs.si) continues as one of the leading conferences in Central Europe gathering scientific community with a wide range of research interests in information society. In 2009, we organized record eleven independent conferences forming the Multiconference. Information society displays a complex interplay of social, economic, and technological issues that attract attention of many scientific events around Europe. The broad range of topics makes our event unique among similar conferences. The motto of the Multiconference is synergy of different interdisciplinary approaches dealing with the challenges of information society. The major driving forces of the Multiconference are search and demand for new knowledge related to information, communication, and computer services. We present, analyze, and verify new discoveries in order to prepare the ground for their enrichment and development in practice. The main objective of the Multiconference is presentation and promotion of research results, to encourage their practical application in new ICT products and information services in Slovenia and also broader region.
The Multiconference is running in parallel sessions with 300 presentations of scientific papers. The papers are published in the conference proceedings, and in special issues of two journals. One of them is Informatica with its 33 years of tradition in excellent research publications.
The Information Society 2009 Multiconference consists of the following conferences:
• Intelligent Systems
• Cognitive Sciences
• Cognitonics
• Mondilex
• Robotics
• Data Mining and Data Warehouses (SiKDD 2009)
• Collaboration, Software and Services in Information Society
• Demographic Challenges in Europe
• Increasing Interests for Higher Education in Science and Technology
• Education in Information Society
• The Second Mini Conference on Theoretical Computing 2009
Evidently, the economic recession is not affecting Information society; on the contrary, this is a record conference in several terms, e.g. judging from the number of single conferences.
The Multiconference is co-organized and supported by several major research institutions and societies, among them ACM Slovenia, i.e. the Slovenian chapter of the ACM. We would like to express our appreciation to the Slovenian Government for cooperation and support, in particular through the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Technology.
In 2009, the Programme and Organizing Committees decided to award one Slovenian for his/her outstanding contribution to development and promotion of information society in our country. With the majority of votes, this honor went to Prof. Dr. Vladislav Rajkovič. Congratulations!
On behalf of the conference organizers we would like to thank all participants for their valuable contribution and their interest in this event, and particularly the reviewers for their thorough reviews.
Franc Solina, Programme Committee Chair Matjaž Gams, Organizing Committee Chair
KONFERENČNI ODBORI CONFERENCE COMMITTEES
International Programme Committee Organizing Committee
Vladimir Bajic, South Africa Heiner Benking, Germany Se Woo Cheon, Korea Howie Firth, UK Olga Fomichova, Russia Vladimir Fomichov, Russia Vesna Hljuz Dobric, Croatia Alfred Inselberg, Izrael Jay Liebowitz, USA Huan Liu, Singapore Henz Martin, Germany Marcin Paprzycki, USA Karl Pribram, USA Claude Sammut, Australia Jiri Wiedermann, Czech Republic Xindong Wu, USA
Yiming Ye, USA Ning Zhong, USA Wray Buntine, Finland Bezalel Gavish, USA Gal A. Kaminka, Israel Miklós Krész, Hungary József Békési, Hungary
Matjaž Gams, chair Mitja Luštrek, co-chair Lana Jelenkovič Jana Krivec Mitja Lasič
Programme Committee Franc Solina, chair
Viljan Mahnič, co-chair Cene Bavec, co-chair Tomaž Kalin, co-chair Jozsef Györkös, co-chair Tadej Bajd
Jaroslav Berce Mojca Bernik Marko Bohanec Ivan Bratko Andrej Brodnik Dušan Caf Saša Divjak Tomaž Erjavec Bogdan Filipič Andrej Gams
Matjaž Gams Marko Grobelnik Nikola Guid Marjan Heričko
Borka Jerman Blažič Džonova Gorazd Kandus
Urban Kordeš Marjan Krisper Andrej Kuščer Jadran Lenarčič Borut Likar Janez Malačič Olga Markič Dunja Mladenič Franc Novak Marjan Pivka Vladislav Rajkovič
Grega Repovš Ivan Rozman Niko Schlamberger Stanko Strmčnik Tomaž Šef Jurij Šilc Jurij Tasič Denis Trček Andrej Ule Tanja Urbančič Boštjan Vilfan David B. Vodušek Baldomir Zajc Blaž Zupan Boris Žemva Janez Žibert Leon Žlajpah
KAZALO / TABLE OF CONTENTS
Intelligent Systems ... 1
PREDGOVOR / PREFACE ... 3
PROGRAMSKI ODBOR / PROGRAMME COMMITTEE ... 4
ESTIMATION OF INDIVIDUAL PREDICTION RELIABILITY USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF REGRESSION MODELS / Zoran Bosnić ... 7
COGNITIVE COMPLEXITY OF MULTI-CRITERIA GROUP DECISION-MAKING METHODS / Andrej Bregar ... 11
BEHAVIOUR RANDOMNESS MEASUREMENT AS A PART OF COMPLEX CUSTOMER VALUE INDICATOR / Naděžda Chalupová, Arnošt Motyčka ... 15
A HYBRID NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR SPAM DETECTION / Maria Corduneanu, Carmen Maria Cosoi, Catalin Alexandru Cosoi, Madalin Vlad, Valentin Sgarciu ... 19
DETECTING ANOMALIES IN SOCIAL NETWORKS USING FRACTAL NETWORKS / Catalin Alexandru Cosoi, Madalin Stefan Vlad, Maria Corduneanu, Carmen Maria Cosoi ... 22
EVALUATION OF POPULAR FEATURE RANKING ALGORITHMS IN MICROARRAY ANALYSIS / Mario Gorenjak, Mateja Bajgot, Biljana Pejčić, Andrej Sovec, Gregor Štiglic ... 26
EQUATION-BASED MODELS OF OILSEED RAPE POPULATION DYNAMICS DEVELOPED FROM SIMULATION OUTPUTS OF AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL / Aneta Ivanovska, Graham Begg, Ljupčo Todorovski, Sašo Džeroski ... 30
EXPLANATION OF REGRESSION DECISIONS BY ANALOGY WITH THE EXPLANATION IN CLASSIFICATION / Julian Klauser, Igor Kononenko ... 34
REGRESSION AS COST-SENSITIVE CLASSIFICATION / Egon Kocjan, Igor Kononenko ... 38
PROBLEM PRED-TESTNE CENILKE NA PRIMERU EQ5D / Marko Ogorevc ... 42
COMPARISON OF APPROACHES FOR ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL CLASSIFICATION PREDICTIONS / Darko Pevec, Zoran Bosnić, Igor Kononenko ... 46
USING STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR IMPROVING HTTP LOG DATA PRE-PROCESSING / Marko Poženel, Viljan Mahnič, Matjaž Kukar ... 50
A FUZZY EXPERT SYSTEM TO ENFORCE NETWORK SECURITY POLICY / Bel G. Raggad, Azza Mastouri, Manal Mastouri ... 54
PORTABILITY OF USER MODELS WITHIN ADAPTIVE WEB-BASED SYSTEMS / Magdalena Raszková, Arnošt Motyčka ... 58
GENE REGULATORY NETWORKS INFERENCE USING GRAPHICAL GAUSSIAN MODELS / Blagoj Ristevski, Suzana Loskovska ... 62
TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS / Michael Stencl, Ondrej Popelka, Jiri Stastny ... 66
MACHINE LEARNING FOR OBJECT ESTIMATION USING HIERARCHICAL CRITERIA SYSTEM / Andrey Styskin ... 70
COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE AND ORGANIZATIONS’ CONSCIOUSNESS / Viljem Tisnikar ... 74
APPLYING DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS FOR INCREASING OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT / Pavel Tubin ... 78
POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF USING WEB SERVICES IN CRM SYSTEMS / Jan Turčínek ... 82
PROJECT SELF-EVALUATION METHODOLOGY: THE HEALTHREATS PROJECT CASE STUDY / Martin Žnidaršič, Marko Bohanec, Nada Lavrač, Bojan Cestnik ... 85
INTELIGENTNI SISTEM ZA NADZOR OBJEKTOV / Erik Dovgan, Rok Piltaver, Matjaž Gams ... 89
SE SPLAČA PREMISLITI GLOBLJE? / Matjaž Gams: ... 93
GLAJENJE TRAJEKTORIJ GIBANJA ČLOVEŠKEGA TELESA ZAJETIH Z RADIJSKO TEHNOLOGIJO / Boštjan Kaluža, Erik Dovgan: ... 97
ISKANJE VZORCEV V ZAPOREDJU DOGODKOV / Jana Krivec: ... 101
IZBOLJŠEVANJE PREPOZNAVANJA AKTIVNOSTI IZ POLOŽAJEV ZNAČK / Mitja Luštrek: ... 105
STROJNA KLASIFIKACIJA SPLETNIH STRANI PO TEMAH / Domen Marinčič: ... 109
TOWARDS ROBUST RULE ENGINE FOR CLASSIFYING HUMAN POSTURE / Violeta Mircevska: ... 112
ANALIZA DELOVANJA VIRTUALNEGA SVETOVALCA / Matej Ožek, Matjaž Gams, Jana Krivec: ... 116
ZAZNAVANJE NENAVADNEGA OBNAŠANJA S SISTEMOM ZA LOCIRANJE V REALNEM ČASU IN MEHKO LOGIKO / Rok Piltaver: ... 120
MOVEMENT-BASED AUTOMATIC DISEASE RECOGNITION / Bogdan Pogorelc: ... 124
IDENTIFIKACIJA GLASOV IN SODNO IZVEDENSTVO V KAZENSKEM POSTOPKU / Tomaž Šef: ... 128
PATOLOGIJA MINIMIN PREISKOVANJA / Aleš Tavčar: ... 132
PROBLEM TRANSFORMATION METHODS FOR MULTIGENRE WEB PAGES CLASSIFICATION /
Vedrana Vidulin: ... 136
Education in Information Society ... 141
PREDGOVOR ... 143
PREFACE ... 144
PROGRAMSKI ODBOR / PROGRAMME COMMITTEE ... 145
UPORABA IKT PRI POUKU (TUJEGA JEZIKA), NJENE PREDNOSTI IN (MOŽNE) SLABOSTI TER NUJNI POGOJI ZA KAKOVOSTNO DELO Z IKT / Jelka Bajželj ... 147
MODEL ZA OCENO VPLIVA STALNEGA STROKOVNEGA IZOBRAŽEVANJA NA KAKOVOST UČITELJA / Sašo Bizant ... 148
EVALVACIJA IZOBRAŽEVALNEGA PROCESA S POUDARKOM NA VOJAŠKIH VSEBINAH / Liliana Brožič, Dušan Sušnik ... 149
UPORABA INTERAKTIVNE TABLE PRI MATEMATIKI V PRVEM TRILETJU OSNOVNE ŠOLE / Urška Bučar ... 150
MEDOSEBNA VLOGA RAVNATELJA - MANAGERJA V PROCESU DELA IN FUNKCIJI HUMANISTIČNO-ANTROPOCENTRIČNEGA MANAGEMENTA ČLOVEŠKIH VIROV / Bojan Burgar, Jože Florjančič, Mojca Bernik ... 151
POUK MATEMATIKE V OSNOVNI ŠOLI Z UPORABO E-GRADIV / Nevenka Colja ... 152
GOOGLE APPS - OZADJE, IMPLEMENTACIJA IN UPORABA / Dejan Cvitkovič ... 153
PROSTO DOSTOPNI IZOBRAŽEVALNI VIRI V E-IZOBRAŽEVANJU / Dejan Dinevski, Samo Fošnarič, Tanja Arh ... 154
OBRAVNAVA UMETNOSTNEGA BESEDILA – PRAVLJICE S POMOČJO E – GRADIV V 6. RAZREDU / Miroslava Fon ... 155
IZZIVI NOVIH TEHNOLOGIJ IN ŠOLA BODOČNOSTI / Ivan Gerlič ... 156
RAZVIJANJE MEHKIH ZNANJ NA TEHNIČNIH FAKULTETAH: IZKUŠNJE S ŠTUDENTSKIM DELOM NA PROJEKTIH / Franc Gider, Tanja Urbančič ... 157
PREDNOSTI BLOKOVNEGA PROGRAMIRANJA ROBOTOV V OSNOVNI ŠOLI / Milan Hlade ... 158
NADALJNI KORAKI V RAZVOJU E-IZOBRAŽEVANJA V SLOVENSKEM ŠOLSKEM PROSTORU / Boris Horvat, Matija Lokar, Primož Lukšič, Damijan Omerza, Alen Orbanić ... 159
NEKATERI STRUKTURNI IN KULTURNI PROBLEMI PRI UVAJANJU E-IZOBRAŽEVANJA. Z NAKAZANIMI REŠITVAMI / Marko Ivanišin ... 160
UPORABA PROGRAMA MICROSOFT WORD PRI TRETJEŠOLCIH / Alenka Kastelic ... 161
UČENJE PREKO IGRE DO SPOZNAVANJA RAČUNALNIKA / Mojca Kogoj ... 162
ALI UPORABA MULTIMEDIJE IZBOLJŠA UČINKOVITOST IZOBRAŽEVANJA? / Darko Korošec ... 163
ELEKTRONSKI KARIERNI PORTFOLIJ - KONCEPT E-ORODJA, KI PODPIRA KARIERNI RAZVOJ POSAMEZNIKA / Danilo Kozoderc ... 164
UPORABA PROGRAMA ECLIPSECROSSWORD V UČNEM PROCESU PRVEGA VZGOJNO- IZOBRAŽEVALNEGA OBDOBJA / Irena Kresevič ... 165
KAKO OPOGUMITI STAREJŠE OSEBE ZA UPORABO IKT? / Julija Lapuh Bele, Boštjan Jarc, David Rozman ... 166
KAKO PRIPRAVITI UČNA E-GRADIVA? / Matija Lokar ... 167
PRIMER GRADIVA ZA INTERAKTIVNO TABLO PRI POUKU SLOVENŠČINE / Tatjana Lotrič Komac, Tina Žagar Pernar ... 168
SLOVENŠČINA NA DALJAVO / Tatjana Lotrič Komac ... 169
NAUK – NAPREDNE UČNE KOCKE ZA UČITELJE / Primož Lukšič, Matija Lokar, Boris Horvat ... 170
POUČEVANJE METODE SCRUM V SODELOVANJU S PODJETJEM ZA RAZVOJ PROGRAMSKE OPREME / Viljan Mahnič, Strahil Georgiev, Tomo Jarc ... 171
ODLOČITVENI MODEL ZA IZBIROŠOLSKIH IN OBŠOLSKIH DEJAVNOSTI OTROK / Matea Curkova ... 172
INFORMATIZACIJA POUKA KLAVIRJA: IZZIV PRIHODNOSTI ALI UTOPIJA? / Lorena Mihelač ... 173
UPORABA E-GRADIV ZA UČENJE DOMA IN NA DOMU / Jožica Mlakar Broder ... 174
E-KEMIJA V 8. RAZREDU – IZDELAVA E-GRADIVA / Tomaž Pavlakovič, Sonja Malnarič ... 175
MERILEC SRČNEGA UTRIPA KOT SREDSTVO IKT PRI ŠPORTNI VZGOJI / Rok Pekolj ... 175
VLOGA ODLOČITVENEGA MODELA PRI UGOTAVLJANJU VSEBNOSTI TEŽKIH KOVIN V LASEH / Aleksandra Debevec, Marjanca Pograjc Debevec ... 176
ASSURING THE STUDENTS TO WORK INDIVIDUALLY AT HOME USING MOODLE - VIRTUAL LEARNING ENVIRONMENT / Zdenko Potočar ... 177
INOVATIVNO UČENJE IN POUČEVANJE PRI POUKU GEOGRAFIJE / Andreja Prezelj ... 178
POSTOPNO CELOSTNO UVAJANJE E-IZOBRAŽEVANJA V SPLOŠNI GIMNAZIJI / Tanja Mastnak,
Peter Purg, Alenka Budihna ... 179
OBRAVNAVA PRAVLJICE V PRVEM RAZREDU / Stanka Rakar ... 180
NAVIGACIJA IN ZUMIRANJE NEVIDNIH POSLOVNIH PROCESOV V MEHATRONSKI INFORMATIKI / Gorazd Rakovec ... 181
TIMSKO, MEDPREDMETNO POUČEVANJE OB PODPORI IKT / Irena Rakovec Žumer ... 182
»NOVI« ČLOVEK KOT UČENEC - POMEN PERCEPCIJE IN ZAVESTI ZA UČENJE, PODPRTO Z INFORMACIJSKO TEHNOLOGIJO / Vanda Rebolj ... 183
UPORABA INFORMACIJSKO-KOMUNIKACIJSKE TEHNOLOGIJE PRI POUČEVANJU TUJEGA JEZIKA V VZGOJNO IZOBRAŽEVALNEM ZAVODU / Ribič Marko ... 184
MOŽNOST UPORABE PROGRAMA TUX PAINT V DRUGEM RAZREDU / Darja Rijavec ... 185
PREGLED IN ANALIZA NASTAJANJA, PREIZKUŠANJA IN UPORABE E-GRADIV PRI POUKU / Damjana Šajne, Tanja Urbančič, Iztok Arčon ... 186
COURSELAB - PREPROSTO ORODJE ZA IZDELAVO E-GRADIV / Peter Škarja, Branislav Šmitek ... 187
ODLOČITVENI MODEL ZA IZBIRO UČENCA ZA NAGRADO ŠOLE / Magda Slokar Čevdek ... 188
KAKOVOST ZNANJA PRIDOBLJENA Z RAZLIČNIMI NAČINI IZVEDB LABORATORIJSKEGA DELA / Andreja Špernjak, Andrej Šorgo ... 189
ELEKTRONSKA BAZA PODATKOV O UČENCIH S POSEBNIMI POTREBAMI V OSNOVNI ŠOLI / Amalija Stiplovšek ... 190
POUČNI RAČUNALNIŠKI PROGRAMI ZA VRTEC / Jelena Stojmenovič ... 191
INTERAKTIVNA TABLA IN INTERAKTIVNOST PRI POUKU MATEMATIKE NA PREDMETNI STOPNJI OŠ / Jožica Štrajhar ... 191
AKTIVNE OBLIKE ŠTUDIJA IN VRSTNIŠKO OCENJEVANJE V VISOKEM ŠOLSTVU / Mateja Strnad, Irena Nančovska Šerbec, Jože Rugelj ... 192
UPORABA E-GRADIV ZA NOVE SREDNJEŠOLSKE UČITELJE / Gašper Strniša ... 193
UČNA URA Z INTERAKTIVNIMI DEMONSTRACIJAMI / Jože Štrucl ... 193
POUČEVANJE (SLOVENŠČINE) NA DALJAVO / Polona Tomac Stanojev ... 194
IKT – MOST MED ŠOLO IN STARŠI / Andreja Vehar Jerman ... 195
MODEL UGOTAVLJANJA USTVARJALNE UČINKOVITOSTI PODJETIJ / Barbka Vidmar ... 196
IKT V IZOBRAŽEVANJU ZA TRAJNOSTNI RAZVOJ / Srečo Zakrajšek ... 197
ALI PRIDOBIVATI ZNANJE S POMOČJO UPORABE IKT ALI S KLASIČNIMI PEDAGOŠKIMI METODAMI IN OBLIKAMI DELA? / Mojca Žepič ... 198
Data Mining and Data Warehouses (SiKDD 2009) ... 199
PREDGOVOR / PREFACE ... 201
ENRYCHER – SERVICE ORIENTED TEXT ENRICHMENT / Tadej Štajner, Delia Rusu, Lorand Dali, Blaž Fortuna, Dunja Mladenić, Marko Grobelnik ... 203
ENRYCHER – SERVICE ORIENTED TEXT ENRICHMENT / Tadej Štajner, Delia Rusu, Lorand Dali, Blaž Fortuna, Dunja Mladenić, Marko Grobelnik ... 203
LEARNING EVENT TEMPLATES ON NEWS ARTICLES / Mitja Trampuš, Dunja Mladenic ... 207
USING ENUMERATIONS FOR WORD CLUSTERING / Lorand Dali, Nada Lavrač ... 211
SEMI-AUTOMATIC ONTOLOGY EXTENSION USING TEXT MINING / Inna Novalija, Dunja Mladenić ... 214
CONTEXTUALIZED VISUALIZATION OF ONTOLOGIES AND ONTOLOGY NETWORKS / Boštjan Pajntar, Dunja Mladenić, Marko Grobelnik ... 218
PROBABILISTIC TEMPORAL PROCESS MODEL FOR KNOWLEDGE PROCESSES: HANDLING A STREAM OF LINKED TEXT / Marko Grobelnik, Dunja Mladenic, Jure Ferlež ... 222
EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF PRESS ARTICLES ON KENYAN ELECTIONS: A DATA MINING APPROACH / Senja Pollak ... 228
TEXT MINING AND KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY WITH ONTOGEN 2.0 / Mladen Tomaško ... 232
AN IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PATHFINDER ALGORITHM FOR SPARSE NETWORKS AND ITS APPLICATION ON TEXT NETWORKS / Anže Vavpetič ... 236
EXPERIMENTS WITH SATURATION FILTERING FOR NOISE ELIMINATION FROM LABELED DATA / Borut Sluban, Nada Lavrač, Dragan Gamberger, Andrej Bauer ... 240
Collaboration, Software and Services in Information Society ... 245
PREFACE ... 247
PROGRAMSKI ODBOR / PROGRAMME COMMITTEE ... 248
SIMPLE SOLUTION FOR ONTOLOGY-BASED MAPPING BETWEEN V-MODELL XT AND SELECTED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT METHODOLOGIES / Peter Butka ... 249
MODEL-DRIVEN ENGINEERING AND AN EXAMPLE OF ITS INTRODUCTION / Tomaž Lukman,
Giovanni Godena ... 253
A MODEL BASED CODE GENERATION SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING A PRESENTATION LOGIC / Jan Kryštof, David Procházka, Arnošt Motyčka ... 257
THE USE OF METAPHORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS / Saša Kuhar, Marjan Heričko ... 261
ARCHITECTURE FOR SOFTWARE METRICS REPOSITORY / Črt Gerlec, Aleš Živkovič ... 265
SOLUTION REPRESENTATION ANALYSIS FOR THE EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH OF THE ENTITY REFACTORING SET SELECTION PROBLEM / Camelia Chisăliţă-Creţu ... 269
ORGANIZING WEB SERVICES INTERFACES AS A BASIS FOR EFFICIENT SERVICE GOVERNANCE / Aleš Frece ... 273
INTEGRATION OF FULL-TEXT SEARCH WITH WEB MAPPING SERVICES / David Procházka, Jan Kryštof, Arnošt Motyčka ... 277
THE ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN OF A TOOL FOR TESTING WORKFLOW-BASED APPLICATIONS / Uroš Goljat, Marjan Heričko ... 281
UTILIZING PROCESS MODELING TO SUPPORT THE COLLABORATIVE COMMUNICATION OF AUTHORITIES IN THE MANAGEMENT OF DISASTER SITUATIONS / Jari Soini, Petri Linna, Hannu Jaakkola... 285
TOWARDS ADAPTIVE SERVICE-CENTRED APPLICATIONS / Jože Pfeifer ... 290
DYNAMIC SERVICE BUSINESS MODELS: A PROPOSAL FOR UNIFIED SERVICE PRICING FRAMEWORK / Kristjan Košič, Reinhard Bernsteiner, Marjan Heričko ... 294
SUCCESS FACTORS AND BARRIERS OF KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT – AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF A SHAREPOINT 2007 IMPLEMENTATION / Michael Amberg, Michael Reinhardt, Jiangping Weng ... 298
THE TRUE VALUE OF AN E-LEARNING SYSTEM THROUGH THE STUDENT’S EYE / Boštjan Šumak, Maja Pušnik, Marjan Heričko ... 303
FUNCTIONAL HORIZONTAL NETWORK MARKETPLACES – A POSSIBLE SOLUTION FOR SERBIAN MARKET / Zoran Jankovič, Mirjana Ivanović, Zoran Budimac ... 307
USING GEOFENCING TO OVERCOME SECURITY CHALLENGES IN WIRELESS NETWORKS: PROOF OF CONCEPT / Anthony C. Ijeh, Allan J. Brimicombe, David S. Preston, Chris O. Imafidon ... 311
FREE INTERNET ACCESS USING THE ANDROID PLATFORM / Jernej Huber ... 315
Cognitive Sciences ... 319
PREDGOVOR ... 321
DEMENCA – RAZPAD UMA IN POGREZ V BLAGODEJNO POZABO / Pirtošek Zvezdan ... 323
RACIONALNO ODLOČANJE IN ČUSTVA / Markič Olga ... 325
FENOMENOLOGIJA ODLOČANJA / Kordeš Urban ... 329
SE ODLOČAMO GENETSKO ALI PRIVZGOJENO – ANALIZA POSILSTVA? / Gams Matjaž ... 333
PRIDI K MENI: O ODLOČANJU, KAIRÓSU IN TRENUTKIH SREČANJA V PSIHOTERAPIJI / Možina Miran ... 337
OSEBNOSTNI IN KONTEKSTNI DEJAVNIKI TER PARADIGME ODLOČANJA / Tancig Simona ... 343
SKUPINSKO ODLOČANJE KOT AKTUALIZIRANJE DELOVANJSKIH POTENCIALOV / Ule Andrej ... 347
RAČUNALNIK IN ODLOČANJE:ODLOČITVENI MODELI IN SISTEMI ZA PODPORO PRI ODLOČANJU / Bohanec Marko ... 351
DO KOD SEŽEJO MATEMATIČNI MDELI V SITUACIJAH ODLOČANJA / Knap Žiga ... 355
NIKOTINSKA ZASVOJENOST GOSPODA JONESA-Odločanje zgodovinarja v procesu raziskovanja / Ratej Mateja ... 357
SITUACIJA “ODLOČANJE” IN NJENA REPREZENTACIJA V ZNANSTVENIH TEKSTIH / Bazhenova Elena, Marija Kotyurova ... 360
VPLIV MAGNETIZMA NA OBČUTLJIVOST OČI - JE V OZADJU MAGNETNI ČUT? / Avbelj Viktor... 362
AN INTER-DISCIPLINARY SURVEY OF CURRENT STUDIES ON THE NATURE OF CONSCIOUSNESS / Daffern Thomas C. ... 365
POVEZANOST IMPULZIVNOSTI Z AFEKTIVNIMI DIMENZIJAMI TEMPERAMENTA MED SPOLOMA / Dolenc Barbara, Šprah Lilijana ... 371
NOVI POGLEDI NA DELOVANJE MOŽGANOV: OD SUBMOLEKULSKE DO GLOBALNE RAVNI / Plankar Matej ... 375
VLOGA MOTIVACIJE PRIBLIŽEVANJA IN UMIKA PRI KOGNITIVNI KONTROLI EMOCIONALNIH DRAŽLJAJEV / Šprah Lilijana, Novak Tatjana ... 379
ON CONSCIOUSNESS; INSIGHTS FROM INTUITION, REFLECTION AND DIALOGUE / Žerovnik Eva ... 383
K VPRAŠANJU O NACIONALNI SLIKI SVETA / Shchukina Irina ... 387
RAZMERJE DO VODENJA IN IZBRANE SOCIALNO VREDNOTNE ORIENTACIJE PRI RAZLIČNIH KULTURAH V SLOVENIJI / Mihajlović Slađana ... 390
Robotics ... 395
PREDGOVOR ... 397
EKSPERIMENTALNA MOBILNA ROBOTSKA PLATFORMA / Peter Čepon, Roman Kamnik, Jernej Kuželički, Tadej Bajd, Marko Munih ... 399
DESIGN OF A CUSTOM ELECTRONICS DRIVER FOR DIELECTRICS ELASTOMER ACTUATORS / Mitja Babič, Rocco Vertechy, Giovanni Berselli, Jadran Lenarčič... 403
ROBOTSKE PROGRAMSKE STRUKTURE V PROGRAMIRANJU HUMANOIDNIH ROBOTOV / Andrej Kos ... 407
REGULACIJA TEŽIŠČA ROBOTA PRI VIZUALNO-MOTORIČNEM VODENJU / Blaž Hajdinjak, Jan Babič ... 411
RITMIČNO VODENJE NIHALA Z UPORABO NELINEARNEGA DINAMIČNEGA SISTEMA / Tadej Petrič, Andrej Gams, Leon Žlajpah ... 415
POSPLOŠEVANJE PERIODIČNIH GIBANJ ZAPISANIH Z NELINEARNIMI DINAMIČNIMI SISTEMI / Andrej Gams, Aleš Ude ... 419
ROBOTSKA REHABILITACIJA Z NAVIDEZNO RESNIČNOSTJO IN PSIHOFIZIOLOŠKIMI MERITVAMI / Domen Novak, Jaka Ziherl, Andrej Olenšek, Janez Podobnik, Matjaž Mihelj, Marko Munih ... 423
Cognitonics ... 427
PREFACE / PREDGOVOR ... 429
EDITORS AND PROGRAM CHAIRS / UREDNIKA ... 429
COGNITONICS AS AN ANSWER TO THE CHALLENGE OF TIME / Olga S. Fomichova, Vladimir A. Fomichov ... 431
AN INFORMATION SYSTEM IN SCHOOL FOR A RISK MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNET: PREVENTING CYBERBULLING WITHOUT PROHIBITIONS / Hirohiko Yasuda ... 435
A NEW MODEL FOR ONLINE READING COMPREHENSION RESEARCH / S. Ottaviano, A. Chifari, L. Seta, G. Chiazzese, G. Merlo, M. Allegra ... 440
LANGUAGES AND LANGUAGE: THE GREEK CASE / Maria Bontila, Vasssilios Dagdilelis ... 444
AESTHETICS AND LOGIC, THE TWO MAIN BRANCHES OF ONE SINGLE TREE / Nicole Szendy ... 448
AN EXTENDED CONCEPT OF MULTI-MEDIA AND ITS ROLE IN CREATIVITY IN BASIC EDUCATION / Gaba Tsayang, Dimitar M. Totev ... 452
SCHOOL READINESS: AN ITALIAN TOOL WITH A MULTIFACTORIAL APPROACH FOR ACADEMIC SUCCESS / Daniela Miazza, Maria Assunta Zanetti ... 456
EXPANDING MENTAL OUTLOOK BY USING CONCEPT MAPS / Dumitru Dan Burdescu, Marian Cristian Mihaescu, Bogdan Logofatu, Costem Marian Ionascu ... 460
ACADEMIC-SCHOOL READINESS: AN ITALIAN TRAINING / Daniela Miazza, Maria Assunta Zanetti ... 464
COGNITONICS: A SOPHISTICATED LOOK AT SOCIALIZATION VIA VOGUE / Olga S. Fomichova, Anna V. Molyukova ... 467
The Second Mini Conference on Theoretical Computer Science ... 471
PREDGOVOR ... 473
PREFACE ... 474
LOWER BOUND ON ON-LINE BIN-PACKING ALGORITHMS / Gábor Galambos, János Balogh, József Békési ... 475
A FLEXIBLE METHOD FOR DRIVER SCHEDULING IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION / Attila Tóth ... 475
DESIGN SPACE EXPLORATION FOR EMBEDDED PARALLEL SYSTEM-ON-CHIP PLATFORMS USING MODEFRONTIER / C. Kavka, L. Onesti, P. Avasare, G. Vanmeerbeeck, M. Wouters, H. Posadas ... 476
IMPROVED ANALYSIS OF AN ALGORITHM FOR THE COUPLED TASK PROBLEM WITH UET JOBS / József Békési, Gábor Galambos, Marcus Oswald, Gerhard Reinelt ... 477
A FRAMEWORK FOR A FLEXIBLE VEHICLE SCHEDULING SYSTEM / David Paš, József Békési, Miklós Krész, Andrej Brodnik... 477
MEDIAL AXIS APPROXIMATION OF SIMPLE POLYGONS / Gregor Smogavec, Borut Žalik ... 478
AN EFFICIENT GRAPH REDUCTION METHOD / Miklós Krész, Miklós Bartha SPEAKER TRACKING IN BROADCAST NEWS: A CASE STUDY / Janez Žibert ... 479
Indeks avtorjev / Author index ... 481
Zbornik 12. mednarodne multikonference
INFORMACIJSKA DRUŽBA – IS 2009
Proceedings of the 12th International Multiconference
INFORMATION SOCIETY – IS 2009
Inteligentni sistemi Intelligent Systems
Uredila / Edited by Marko Bohanec, Matjaž Gams
http://is.ijs.si
14.−15. oktober 2009 / October 14 th−15th, 2009 Ljubljana, Slovenia
PREDGOVOR
Inteligentni sistemi imajo jasen trend rasti tako v realnem življenju kot na naši konferenci. Ta trend je nasproten ekonomski recesiji v 2009, saj se je število prispevkov na konferenci občutno povečalo. Stalnica je tudi pozitivni trend, ko inteligentni programi čedalje uspešneje opravljajo naloge inteligentnih pomočnikov in hkrati postajajo tudi bistveno bolj komunikativni v smislu govora in mimike. Inteligentni sistemi postajajo del naše vsakdanjosti.
Konferenca Inteligentni sistemi v letu 2009 ostaja mednarodna in vseslovenska hkrati.
Prispevki so tako v slovenskem kot angleškem jeziku. Letos posebej izstopajo pristopi, ki temeljijo na izdelavi različnih modelov, analizi podatkov in strojnem učenju. Predstavljene so tudi konkretne aplikacije na različnih področjih, na primer pri upravljanju podjetij, vodenju projekov, na področjih računalniških omrežij in v zdravstvu.. Ponovno so posebej razveseljivi kakovostni prispevki mladih avtorjev. Prispevki dokazujejo uspešnost inteligentnih sistemov pri reševanju zahtevnih praktičnih problemov.
Na letošnji konferenci Inteligentni sistemi 2009 je predstavljeno skoraj 30 prispevkov kljub poostreni recenziji in posledično večjemu številu zavrnjenih prispevkov. Prispevki so bili recenzirani s strani dveh anonimnih recenzentov. Oblikovne pripombe sva prispevala tudi predsednika konference.
Marko Bohanec in Matjaž Gams, predsednika konference
PREFACE
Contrary to the economic recession in 2009, the area of intelligent systems is still growing and gaining more and more attention. The number of papers increased again this year. Not only that intelligent systems are becoming more and more advanced intelligent assistants, they are improving their communication skills in terms of speech and expression. Intelligent systems are becoming part of our everyday life.
The conference Intelligent Systems 2009 remains a national and international event and presents papers written in both English and Slovenian languages. In this year, the focus is on approaches based on modeling, data analysis and machine learning. Presented are applications in various problem domains, including the management of companies, projects, computer networks and health care. Particularly promising are high-quality contributions of young authors. The papers confirm the usefulness and effectiveness of intelligent systems in solving and supporting difficult real-life problems.
The Proceedings of Intelligent Systems 2009 include almost 30 papers, in spite of stronger quality criteria and consequently more rejected papers than in the previous years. The submitted papers have been reviewed by two anonymous reviewers. Some additional suggestions for improvements were also provided by the chairmen of the conference.
Marko Bohanec and Matjaž Gams, Conference Chairs
PROGRAMSKI ODBOR / PROGRAMME COMMITTEE
Marko Bohanec, predsednik Institut Jožef Stefan Matjaž Gams, predsednik
Institut Jožef Stefan Tomaž Banovec
Statistični urad Republike Slovenije Cene Bavec
Univerza na Primorskem, Fakulteta za Management Koper; IBM Jaro Berce
Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za družbene vede Marko Bonač,
ARNES Ivan Bratko
Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za računalništvo in informatiko, IJS Dušan Caf
Telekom Slovenije Aleš Dobnikar Center Vlade RS za informatiko
Bogdan Filipič Institut Jožef Stefan
Nikola Guid
Univerza v Mariboru, Fakulteta za elektrotehniko računalništvo in informatiko Borka Jerman Blažič
Institut Jožef Stefan Tomaž Kalin
Ministrstvo za informacijsko družbo Thiemo Krink
University of Aarhus Marjan Krisper
Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za računalništvo in informatiko Marjan Mernik
Univerza v Mariboru, Fakulteta za elektrotehniko računalništvo in informatiko
Vladislav Rajkovič
Univerza v Mariboru, Fakulteta za organizacijske vede Ivan Rozman
Univerza v Mariboru, Fakulteta za elektrotehniko računalništvo in informatiko Niko Schlamberger
Informatika Tomaž Seljak.
Ministrstvo zašolstvo, znanost in šport Marin Silič
Center Vlade RS za informatiko Peter Stanovnik
Institut za ekonomska raziskovanja Peter Tancig
Združanje raziskovalcev Slovenije Pavle Trdan
Lek Iztok Valenčič
Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor d.d.
Vasja Vehovar
Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za družbene vede Boštjan Vilfan
Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za računalništvo in informatiko
ESTIMATION OF INDIVIDUAL PREDICTION RELIABILITY USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF REGRESSION
MODELS
doctoral dissertation (extended abstract)
Zoran Bosnić
Laboratory for Cognitive Modeling Faculty of Computer and Information Science
Tržaška 25, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia Tel: +386 1 4768459; fax: +386 1 468459 e-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
This paper is an extended abstract of doctoral dissertation which discusses the estimation of reliability for the individual predictions of regression models. The estimation of reliability of individual predictions, as opposed to the evaluation of the whole predictive model, provides an important aspect of prediction quality which may be strongly beneficial in risk sensitive applications of machine learning. The dissertation compares the performance of 8 such reliability estimates and proposes a methodology to select the best performing estimate for a given domain and predictive model. The performance of the estimates is evaluated on a large number of standard benchmark domains, as well on a real domain. The results have shown that the variance of bagged predictions performs best as reliability estimator, and that the both proposed procedures for automatic selection of the best performing estimate allow achievement of better results than by using each of the individual estimates only.
1 INTRODUCTION
The dissertation [1, 2, 3] discusses the reliability estimation of individual regression predictions in the field of supervised learning. In contrast to the average measures for the evaluation of model accuracy (e.g. mean squared error), the reliability estimates for individual predictions can provide additional information which is beneficial for evaluating the usefulness of the predictions. This additional information can also provide decision support to the users of the prediction systems, based on which they can decide on the corresponding consequential actions (prescribe a therapy, use the autopilot, etc.).
Measuring the expected prediction error is especially important in the risk-sensitive areas where acting upon predictions may have financial or medical consequences (e.g. medical diagnosis, stock market, navigation, control applications). In such areas, appropriate local accuracy measures may provide additional necessary information
about the prediction confidence. The difference between traditional approach to the model evaluation and the reliability estimation is illustrated in Table 1. The table also shows an additional advantage of the reliability estimates for individual predictions: They are computed for each particular example in contrast to averaged model estimates which require a separate set of test examples.
Table 1: Comparison of reliability estimates for a model as a whole and reliability estimates for individual predictions
Purpose Calculation Reliability estimate
for the whole regression model
one global estimate for a whole model
test examples required for computation reliability estimates
for individual predictions
one reliability estimate for each
individual prediction
does not require separate set of
test examples
2 CATEGORIZATION OF THE RELATED APPROACHES
In our work, we use term reliability estimate to denote any quantity that estimates a quality of a regression prediction.
In the related work, the reliability estimates have therefore appeared as either accuracy estimates or error estimates.
Depending on how the reliability estimates are implemented, the dissertation separates them into the following two groups:
(i) model-dependent estimates which exploit the properties of a particular models (e.g. the number of support vectors [4], Lagrange multipliers in the SVM optimization procedure [5], splits in a regression tree, etc.) and
(ii) model-independent reliability estimates, which exploit the general properties of the supervised learning framework (e.g. changing the learning set [6], etc.).
Besides providing an overview of the related work for the both of the above directions, the dissertation also summarizes and defines various terms which are used in this field (e.g. reliability, sensitivity, stability, confidence, credibility, etc.). The definitions of the terms are systematically shown as a dictionary, which represents an unification of the terminology in the field. The excerpt of this dictionary is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: The dictionary excerpt of the most relevant terms in the area of reliability estimation.
accuracy estimate
One of the aspects of prediction reliability. An estimate which positively correlates with the prediction accuracy or negatively correlates with the prediction error. Similar to confidence, but more general since it does not have probabilistic interpretation (it can take values from an arbitrary real interval and need not be limited to [0, 1]).
confidence Probabilistically expressed accuracy estimate for a given prediction. Value of prediction confidence therefore represents the probability of its accurateness. It is based on an assumed probability distribution and in classification it can be also defined as 1- p2, where p2 denotes the probability of the second most probable class [5].
error estimate One of the aspects of prediction reliability. An estimate which positively correlates to the prediction error. It does not have a probabilistic interpretation and can therefore take values from an arbitary interval of real numbers. It may be implemented as inverted accuracy estimate.
reliability A general notion in engineering, denoting the ability of a system or a component to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. In machine learning, we can define reliability as any qualitative property or ability of the system to perform its important task.
It is quantitavely estimated with reliability estimate, which can be either positive (accuracy, availability, responsiveness, etc.) or negative indicator (inaccuracy, downtime rate, etc.) sensitivity Quantitatively expressed dependence between the
changes in system parameters and structure, and the critical aspects of the system operation.
transduction A term denoting reasoning from particular to particular. The transductive reasoning can be used to construct reliability estimates, which express the probability of how the newly labeled example fits into the distribution of all given examples. Such application may be the estimation of prediction reliability, as in [7].
3 MODEL-INDEPENDENT RELIABILITY ESTIMATES
The main part of the dissertation focuses on developing and comparing new approaches from the group of model- independent reliability estimates. The dissertation proposes 8 new such reliability estimates [8], denoted as SAvar, SAbias-s, SAbias-a, CNK-a, CNK-s, LCV, BAGV, and DENS. The first three of the listed estimates are developed by adapting the sensitivity analysis [9] approach for the use in the supervised learning. To apply the principles of the sensitivity analysis, we propose a framework for controlled
modification of the input (learning set) and outputs (regression predictions) in the supervised learning setting.
By applying minor modifications to the learning set, we exploit the instabilities in predicted values and use them to compose reliability estimates. The other five estimates are adapted from related work based on the following approaches: computing bagging variance, local cross- validation, density estimation, and local error estimation. In the dissertation, the existing estimates are generalized for usage with other regression models.
In the experimental part, the dissertation presents an empirical evaluation of the above reliability estimates using 8 regression models (regression trees, linear regression, neural networks, bagging, support vector regression, locally weighted regression, random forests, generalized additive model) and 28 standard benchmark test domains.
The performance of the reliability estimates is measured based on their correlation coefficient to the prediction error of the individual examples. The correlation coefficients are statistically evaluated to confirm whether the reliability estimates significantly estimate the prediction errors. The testing results demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed reliability estimates especially for the use with regression trees, where one of the proposed estimates correlated with the prediction error in 86% of the testing domains (individual results available in the online version of the dissertation [1]). On the average (across all used regression models) the estimate which is based on the bagging variance analysis achieved the highest performance (correlation to the prediction error). The ranking of the performance of tested reliability estimates is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Average performance of tested reliability estimates across all testing domains and models. The figure shows the percentage of experients exhibiting positive correlation of the estimate to the prediction error (light grey) and the percentage of experiments with the negative correlation to the prediction error (dark grey).
4 AUTOMATIC SELECTION OF THE BEST PERFORMING ESTIMATE
The testing results of the individual reliability estimates revealed that the estimates achieved different performance on different problem domains and using different regression models. Accordingly, in the dissertation we study the problem of the most appropriate reliability estimate selection for a given problem domain and the regression model [10]. We discuss and define two possible solutions of this problem, based on meta-learning and internal cross- validation approach.
In the context of the proposed meta-learning approach we define a meta-problem space for prediction of the best performing reliability estimate. The dissertation presents a possible attribute description of the meta-learning problem and defines it as a classification problem, where each class represents one of the 9 proposed reliability estimates. Using a collection of our 28 testing domains and in combination with 8 different regression models, we construct a meta- learning training set consisting of 224 (28 8) examples. We use this training set to construct a decision tree meta- classifier, which is afterward used to predict the most appropriate reliability estimates for testing domains which do not comprise the meta-training set.
Since decision tree is an interpretable model, we use the constructed meta-classifier to analyze in which cases each particular estimate perform better. The analysis results indicate that the estimates achieve better performance when used with more accurate models (models that achieve lower relative mean squared error on the testing set).
The second approach to the best performing estimate selection is based on the internal cross-validation approach.
It is designed to iteratively measure the performance of the reliability estimates on different subsets of the testing domain. The best performing estimate on the average is afterwards used to estimate the reliability of the test examples which were excluded from the estimate selection process.
The testing results have shown that the dynamically selected reliability estimate using both of the above approaches achieves significant correlation to the perdiction error in more experiments than any of the individual reliability estimates. Outperforming the most successful individual reliability estimate, which positively correlated with the prediction error in 51% of experiments, the procedures for automatic selection of the best performing estimates performed as follows:
the meta learning approach to automatic selection dynamically selected such estimates that positively correlated with the prediction error in 57% of experiments and negatively correlated with the prediction error in 1% of experiments,
the internal cross-validation approach to automatic selection dynamically selected such estimates that on the average positively correlated with the prediction error in 73% of experiments and negatively in none.
5 IMPLEMENTATION IN A MEDICAL DOMAIN The individual estimates and the both approaches for automatic selection of the optimal estimate were tested on a real domain from the area of medical prognostics. The data consisted of 1035 breast cancer patients, who had a surgical treatment for cancer between 1983 and 1987 in the Clinical Center in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The goal of the research was to predict the time of possible cancer recurrence after the surgical treatment.
The analysis showed that this is a difficult prediction problem, because the possibility for recurrence is continuously present for almost 20 years after the treatment. Furthermore, the data presents a mixture of two prediction problems, which additionally hinders the learning performance: (i) yes/no classification problem, whether the illness will recur at all, and (ii) the regression problem for the prediction of the recurrence time.
In our study, the bare recurrence predictions were complemented with our reliability estimates. To implement the prediction system, the locally weighted regression was selected for the use with this problem due to its low relative mean squared error (RMSE), compared to the other models. The model was complemented with one of our reliability estimates which was unanimously selected by both of our approaches for the selection of the best performing estimate. A graphical representation of such predicted time of the cancer recurrence, equipped with reliability information is shown in Figure 2. The implemented prediction system helped the the doctors with the additional validation of the predictions' accuracies.
The statistical comparison of reliability estimates to prediction evaluations of the medical experts showed that our reliability estimates correlate to prediction error with statistically equal correlation as the manual evaluations of the experts. This results therefore showed the potential of the proposed methodology in practice.
6 CONCLUSION
Implementation of reliability estimates for the individual predictions can be a helpful tool when using critical decision support systems. In the dissertation, several such reliability estimates are evaluated and proposed.
Additionally, two approaches for automatical estimate selection, which increase their consideration for practical use, are proposed and evaluated, as well.
The successful implementation of the proposed methodology in a medical domain indicates the importance and the potential for the use of the reliability estimation in practice. To conclude, the dissertation provides the theoretical time complexities for the computation of the estimates' values. The ideas for the directions of the further work include work on the interpretability of the estimates' values, analysis of the mathematical estimates' properties and best performing reliability estimate selection for an individual example to be predicted.
(a)
(b)
Figure 2: Graphical representation of two recurrence predictions (vertical lines) and their reliability (denoted by the width of the Gaussian, surrounding the vertical line).
The figure (a) illustrates an example of the high prediction reliability (the narrow Gaussian), and (b) the low prediction reliability (the wide Gaussian).
References
[1] Bosnić, Z.: Estimation of individual prediction reliability using sensitivity analysis of regression models (in slovene). PhD Thesis, University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Computer and Information Science, http://lkm.fri.uni-lj.si/zoranb/dissertation.htm (2007) [2] Bosnić, Z., Kononenko, I.: Estimation of individual
prediction reliability using the local sensitivity analysis.
Applied Intelligence 29(3) (2007) 187–203
[3] Bosnić, Z., Kononenko, I.: Estimation of regressor reliability. Journal of Intelligent Systems 17(1/3) (2008) 297–311
[4] Gammerman, A., Vovk, V., Vapnik, V.: Learning by transduction. In: Proceedings of the 14th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Madison, Wisconsin (1998) 148–155
[5] Saunders, C., Gammerman, A., Vovk, V.: Transduction with confidence and credibility. In: Proceedings of IJCAI'99. Volume 2. (1999) 722–726
[6] Kukar, M.: Quality assessment of individual classifications in machine learning and data mining.
Knowledge and Information Systems 9(3) (2006) 364–
384
[7] Bosnić, Z., Kononenko, I., Robnik-Šikonja, M., Kukar, M.: Evaluation of prediction reliability in regression using the transduction principle, in: Proceedings of Eurocon 2003, B. Zajc and and M. Tkalčič, eds. (2003) 99–103.
[8] Bosnić, Z., Kononenko, I.: Comparison of approaches for estimating reliability of individual regression predictions. Data & Knowledge Engineering 67(3) (2008) 504–516
[9] Bousquet, O., Elisseeff, A.: Stability and generalization. In: Journal of Machine Learning Research. Volume 2. (2002) 499–526
[10]Bosnić, Z., Kononenko, I.: Automatic selection of reliability estimates for individual predictions.
Knowledge Engineering Review (in press) (2008)
COGNITIVE COMPLEXITY OF MULTI-CRITERIA GROUP DECISION-MAKING METHODS
Andrej Bregar
Informatika d.d., Vetrinjska ulica 2, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia e-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Several widely used and state-of-the-art multi-criteria methods for group decision-making are analysed and compared with regard to their information complexity and the cognitive load that is imposed on the decision- makers. Five evaluation criteria are considered: total number of preferential parameters, quantity of inputs required for the first iteration of the decision-making process, average number of manual adjustments in each subsequent iteration, amount of data that the decision- makers must observe in each iteration, and complexity of data types. Substantial differences between methods are confirmed according to the defined quality factors.
The interactive multi-agent aggregation/disaggregation dichotomic sorting negotiation procedure based on the threshold model is determined to be the most efficient consensus seeking approach.
1 INTRODUCTION
There exist many methods and decision support systems for group decision-making [2, 13]. Their aim is to help potentially conflicting and opposing decision-makers in reaching efficient consensual or compromise solutions.
Because they are based on various theories and approaches from the fields of multi-criteria decision analysis, artificial intelligence and operations research, they exhibit different properties with regard to the cognitive load that is imposed on the decision-makers, thoroughness of modelling the problem domain, and rationality of the decision. Several researchers have investigated these properties [8, 14], or defined frameworks for evaluating group decision-making methods [15]. However, no study has been presented in the literature that would systematically compare existing ap- proaches according to their information/cognitive com- plexity. The purpose of this paper is thus to measure the complexity of some widely used, highly relevant and state- of-the-art group decision-making methods and systems:
1. interactive multi-agent aggregation/disaggregation dichotomic sorting procedure for group consensus seeking based on the threshold model [2, 3], 2. aggregation/disaggregation group decision support
system based on the ELECTRE TRI method [5, 7], 3. ELECTRE TRI for groups [6],
4. ELECTRE-GD [11], 5. group PROMETHEE [1],
6. distance based collective preorder inference [10], 7. aggregation and disaggregation of utility function
related collective preferences [12], 8. group AHP [17, 18],
9. consensus based group decision-making model in- tegrating various preference structures [4, 9].
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, an overview of evaluated group decision-making methods is provided. These methods are analysed and compared in Section 3. Finally, Section 4 gives some conclusions and directions for further research work.
2 OVERVIEW OF COMPARED METHODS 2.1 Dichotomic Sorting Based Consensus Seeking The approach is based on the ELECTRE TRI outranking method [16], which is slightly modified so that preferences are modelled in a symmetrically-asymmetrical manner in the neighbourhood of the reference profile b. The purpose of the profile is to divide the set of alternatives into two exclusive categories – all acceptable choices are sorted into the positive class C+, while unsatisfactory ones are the members of the negative class C–. The decision-maker has to provide six preferential parameters for each criterion xj, including the importance weight wj, the value of the profile gj(b), and the thresholds of preference (pj), indifference (qj), discordance (uj) and veto (vj). Additionally, he can also specify the upper and lower allowed limits of these parameters, which constrain their automatic adjustment in the process of unification with the common opinion of the group. In order to reduce the cognitive load and to enable a rational convergence of individual judgements towards the consensual solution, several mechanisms are applied:
Preferences may be specified with fuzzy variables or by the holistic assessment of alternatives.
The most contradictive negotiator is identified by computing the consensus and agreement degrees.
Several robustness metrics reveal if preferences of an individual are firmly stated.
The centralized agent negotiation architecture and protocol eliminate the need for a human moderator and minimize the activity of each decision-maker.
An optimization algorithm is implemented for the purpose of automatic preference unification.
Weights are derived according to the effect of veto.
2.2 ELECTRE TRI Based Disaggregation Group DSS The methodology is based on the ELECTRE TRI method and is implemented with the IRIS decision support system.
The decision-makers discuss how to sort some exemplary actions into multiple categories, while the IRIS system helps them to iteratively reach an agreement by preserving the consistency of sorting examples both at the individual and the collective level. Some information that may direct the group members is suggested, however the mechanism does not identify the decision-maker who has to conform to the others, leaving this judgement to the moderator.
The decision-maker specifies n criteria-wise evaluations of m compared and several exemplary alternatives, whereby at least one referential example must be provided for each of k+ 1 categories delimited by k profiles. In addition, the upper and lower limits of allowed categories may be set for m sorted alternatives. The decision support system derives for every alternative the acceptability degrees of sorting it into suitable classes, category swaps which are required to attain different permitted classifications, and l constraints that imply the category memberships.
2.3 ELECTRE TRI for Groups
ELECTRE TRI for groups focuses on searching for the best and the worst class into which an alternative may be sorted with respect to the constraints on imprecise parame- ter values that are set by individual decision-makers. To capture the imprecision, a group member has to manually specify the exact values and the limits of all preferential parameters – n criteria weights, 3 ·n thresholds pj, qj and vj, and k·n respectively m·n criteria-wise evaluations of referential profiles and alternatives. The veto thresholds can be defined with the linear function vj=pj+αj/wj, where the αj constant is also subjected to constraints. The method determines the collectively allowed ranges of classes based on the intersections of individual ranges.
2.4 ELECTRE-GD
ELECTRE-GD is an extension of the ELECTRE III met- hod [16]. It derives a group rank-order of alternatives from individual rank-orders and corresponding fuzzy outranking relations. For each pair of alternatives, the degrees σk(ai,aj) and σk(aj,ai) are computed. If σk(ai,aj)λ, the alternative ai
is at least as good as the alternative aj, the σk(ai,aj)λ–β inequality implies that ai is inferior to aj, and the case of λ–β<σk(ai,aj) <λ expresses a doubt about outranking. The inequalities are combined with the numbers of alternatives that are worse than ai and aj, respectively. Altogether, 45 combinations are possible, from which the global rank- order is induced. Hence, the method is rather complex. Its drawbacks are also that it does not enable iterativeness and that it can assure only a compromise, because the decision- makers must accept the solution recommended according to the rules of the human moderator.
2.5 Group PROMETHEE
PROMETHEE is a family of outranking methods. For a pair of alternatives ai and aj, and for each criterion xk, the Pk(ai,aj) function is defined according to the values gk(ai) and gk(aj), and according to the preference, indifference or Gauss thresholds. This function expresses to what degree ai outperforms aj, and can have one of six possible shapes of which the linear is the most common. For every choice ai, the outranking degrees are aggregated into the positive and negative ranking flows that indicate how much ai per- forms better respectively worse than all other alternatives.
The inferred flows can be interpreted in two ways – the PROMETHEE I method derives a partial rank-order, while a weak rank-order is obtained with the PROMETHEE II method. The PROMETHEE II net flows are the input into the group setting. It treats each decision-maker as a sepa- rate criterion and applies the same aggregation procedure as is used for the case of a single decision-maker.
2.6 Distance Based Inference of Collective Preorder The procedure for the inference of a weak rank-order of alternatives from partial rank-orders that are suggested by different decision-makers consists of several steps:
1. For the purpose of specifying individual rankings, the decision-makers apply the PROMETHEE I/II and ELECTRE III methods.
2. The decision-makers are assigned their weights by aggregating two types of components. The objec- tive component of the k-th decision-maker accord- ing to whom the outranking relation aiPkaj holds for the pair of alternatives (ai,aj) is obtained as the ratio between the number of decision-makers pre- ferring ai over aj and the total number of decision- makers. The subjective components are derived by ranking group members in a decreasing order of importance with the revised Simos' procedure.
3. Based on the distances between the relations of alternatives and the most/least favourable relations
> and <, two rankings P+ and P– are inferred.
4. By applying the ELECTRE III method, P+ and P– are combined into a single weak rank-order.
2.7 Aggregation/Disaggregation of Collective Utilities This approach combines the concepts of utility theory, consensus seeking and preference disaggregation. Group members specify utilities of m alternatives with respect to n criteria. Based on these utilities, individual rankings of alternatives and criteria weights, a collective rank-order is derived. The decision-makers are then presented with the discrepancies between their own and unified preferences, so that they can express their opinion about the group solution on a five point scale according to four satisfaction criteria. In this way, the necessity to start a new iteration of the unification process is determined.
