Mahdi Elmandjr a and the Futur e of the Muslim Wor ld
1WAN FARIZA ALYATI WAN ZAKARIA
ABSTRACT
The incr easing pr oblems and challenges facing t he Muslims and t he Muslim wor ld nowadays have r aised ser ious concer n about t he fut ur e of t he Muslims and t he Muslim Wor ld among many Muslim scholar s. The post -Ir anian Islamic Revolut ion in 1979 had always been seen as t he landmar k of the r ising discour ses over t he fut ur e of Islam, Muslims and t he Muslim wor ld. Mahdi Elmandjr a, a pr ominent sociologist and futur ist , is one of t he Muslim scholar s who consist ent ly discuss about t he issue and ur ge t he Muslims t o t ake r esponsibilit y t o cr eat e a bet t er fut ur e in a syst emat ic way and not t o fall int o t he vicious cycle of misfor tunes. This paper aims at discussing Elmandjr a’s views on t his issue and under scor ing t he cont r ibut ion and significance of such discour se wit hin cont empor ar y development .
Keywor ds: Ar ab Wor ld, fut ur e studies, Mahdi Elmandjr a, Muslim wor ld
Mahdi Elmandjr a, a pr ominent sociologist and futur ist, is one of the Muslim scholar s w ho consistently discuss about the futur e of the Muslims and the Muslim w or ld. Elmandjr a w as bor n in Rabat in 1933. He gr aduated fr om Cor nell Univer sity and obtained his doctor ate fr om the London School of Economics. He w as the Dir ector Gener al of the Mor occan Br oadcasting Ser vice and Counselor of the Mor occan Mission to the United Nation. Betw een 1961 to 1981, he occupied var ious functions in the United Nation System including the Assistant Dir ector Gener al of UNESCO for Social Sciences, Human Sciences and Cultur e and the Coor dinator of the Confer ence on Technical Cooper ation among Developing Countr ies (UNDP) (http:/ / ww w .elmandjr a.or g/ summar y.htm). He w as also the Pr esident of the Wor ld Futur e Studies Feder ation and of Futur ibles Inter national of Par is as w ell as the Founding Pr esident of the Mor occan Association of Futur es Studies and the Mor occan Or ganization for Human Rights. He has been a Visiting Pr ofessor of Tokyo Univer sity (1998) and a Visiting Scholar of the Japanese Society for the Pr omotion of Science (JSPS) at the Tokyo Keizai Univer sity (1999) (http:/ / ww w .elmandjr a.or g/ summar y.htm).
Elmandjr a has published over 400 ar ticles in the fields of the human and social sciences. He is a co-author of “No Limit s t o Lear ning” (Repor t to the Club of Rome 1979) and the author of sever al books including The Unit ed Nat ions Syst em, Maghr eb et Fr ancophonie, Pr emier e Guer r e Civilisat ionnelle, Ret r ospect ive des Futur s, Nor d-Sud, Pr elude a l’Er e Post coloniale, Cultur al Diver sit y Key t o Sur vival, Dialogue about Communicat ion, Decolonisat ion Cult ur elle: Defi majeur du 21e Siele, Al-Quds Al-Ar abi, Pat h of a Mind, Reglobalizat ion of Globalizat ion, and Int ifadat e, to name a few (http:/ / ww w .elmandjr a.or g/ summar y.htm).
Thr oughout his intellectual and pr ofessional life, he has been designated to var ious impor tant positions for his outstanding scholar ship, such as the Pr esident of the Wor ld Futur e Studies Feder ation (WFSF) (1977-1981), the Pr esi dent of the Futur ibles Inter national (1981-1990), and the Pr esident of the Club of Rome (r esigned in 1988). He w as also member s of var ious institutions such as the Academy of the Kingdom of Mor occo, the Wor ld Academy of Ar t and Science, the Wor ld Academy of Social Pr ospective, the Mor occan Association of Economists, the Mor occan Association of Philosophy, and the Mor occan Association of Histor ians. He w as also the Founding Pr esident of the Mor occan Association of Futur es Studies, the Mor occan
Or ganization for Human Rights and the Founding Member and the Vice Pr esident of the Mor occo-Japan Association. He w as also the Executive Committee of the African Academy of Sciences and the Pugw ash Movement and Council for the Society for Inter national Development betw een 1982 to 1988 and its Executive Committee betw een 1985 until 1988. With all these significant contr ibutions to the w or ld society, he was chosen by the Inter national Biogr aphical Center as one of the “2000 Outstanding Scholar s of the 20th Centur y”
(http:/ / ww w .elmandjr a.or g/ summar y.htm).
Islam and the Futur e
The sour ce of Elmandjr a’s thought der ived fr om the Islamic sour ces w hen he r efer s to the Qur anic ver ses2 and conception of futur e in claiming the importance of futur es thinking. He
emphasizes that in Islamic discour se on the futur e, ther e ar e a few concepts that should be under stood cor r ectly. Such concepts, as he discusses them br iefly, is the concept of ‘al-ghayb’ (unknown) w hich he believes w ithin the r ealm of God and ‘must aqbal’ (futur e) w hich for him implies the anticipation of developments ar ising fr om people’s action or inaction. He also asser ts the differ ence betw een the concept of ‘bid’ah’ (her esy) and ‘ibda`a’ (innovation) in w hich, “…the fir st is an opinion or attitude w hich is in violation of the basic tenets of Islam…”, w her eas “…the second is, on the contr ar y, an invitation to intr oduce changes and innovations in or der to stimulate the community’s development and vitality” (Elmandjr a 1990: 3).
The other concept, w hich is in fact the most obvious and significant one, is the Islami c vision of life on ear th and also in the her eafter for it calls for the human being “…to seek command of his ow n fate and to adopt, for this pur pose, a dynamic appr oach in his political, economic, social and cultur al initiatives”. In r elation to this, is the concept of change, in w hich Elmandjr a (1990: 3) r egar ds as an essential ingredient for a better futur e. Fur ther mor e, he str esses that the Pr ophet’s actions demonstr ated his for w ar d looking attitude tow ar ds life and his pr ophetic mission. Elmandjr a (1990: 2-3)concludes ther eby that:
All these ver ses fr om the Quran call us to make the best possible use of the pr esent and to car efully and intelligently pr epar e for the futur e; the futur e meaning the r est of our life on ear th and the her eafter... [ the Qur an] r ecommend[ s] that w e make pr ojections and w or k out differ ent options in or der to enhance our ability to cope w ith the r equir ements of the futur e and to impr ove our w ell-being. Ther efor e the futur e should be appr oached in a plur alistic manner (futur es) thus leaving open a wide r ange of options. Islam is a faith and a way of life. It is also an explor ator y vision of life on ear th and in the her eafter . It is our outlooks that deter mine our deeds for w hich w e ar e answ er able to our selves, to society and to God. In Islam Man, w hatever he does, is mindful of the impact of his action on the r est of his life as w ell as on his fate in the Last Judgment.
The Muslims Wor ld and the Futur e
Elmandjr a (1990: 4) believes that Islam is a pow er ful factor of change and innovation, hence play a vital r ole in the evolution of the Muslim society. He ar gues that “ ...the futur e of the Ar ab-Islamic w or ld depends on the r evival of Islam in its innovative acceptance, not Islam of blind imitation w hich led to the fall of a once br illiant civilization”. In fact, he r easons that “...if the Pr ophet Muhammad and his companions had failed to imagine and visualize the futur e, ther e w ould pr obably not be as many as 1,200 million Muslims in the w or ld today”.
How ever , despite the ver y fact that Islam has gr eatly changed the Ar ab Jāhili w or ld of 1,300 year s ago, it seems extr emely incompr ehensible to think of how once a pow er ful for ce could not affect and offer the same r emedy to the pr esent Ar ab - and similar ly to the r est of the Muslim w or ld today, unless, using the case of the doctor and patient analogy, the pr oblem under lies in the patient’s own demur . This is w hat happen in the Ar ab, and the Muslim w or ld today. Upon coming to this conclusion and as far as Elmandjr a’s futur es’ idealism is concer ned, his analysis per taining to the futur e of Islam is approached fr om thr ee differ ent cir cumfer ences: the pr oblems and the futur e of the Ar ab w or ld; the pr oblem and the futur e of Islam in Eur ope and; the pr oblem and the futur e of the Muslim w or ld.
In analyzing the futur e of the Ar ab w or ld, Elmandjr a str esses explicitly that “...the Ar ab w or ld is not pr esently master of its own destiny” (Elmandjr a 1990: 3). He ar gues that this fact is tr ue because of many r easons, one of w hich is the r esult of its past and still affecting the pr esent and conditioning its futur e. The most salient featur es of the Ar ab w or ld today, as Elmandjr a figur es it, is the natur e of atomization of its states that has r emained one of the pr imal conundr um facing the r egion, w her eby “...eighty per cent of the total Ar ab population is concentr ated in 7 countr ies w her eas 7 other countr ies bar ely r each 2 per cent of that total” (Elmandjr a 1990: 2). He says:
This geopolitical fr agmentation is the consequence of a har monized colonial Anglo-Fr ench plan, after the dismember ment of the Ottoman Empir e, including the Sykes-Picot Agr eement (1916), the Balfour Declar ation concer ning Palestine (1917) and the Ar mistice Tr eaty (1918) w hich has tr ansfor med the r egion into a mosaic of ar tificial kinglets and mini-ter r itor ies w ell endow ed w ith oil. At Balkanization w hich is r eflected today in an unequal distr ibution of income in the r egion - fr om less than $ 500 dollar s (Somalia, Yemen, Maur itania) to over $ 20.0000 dollar s (United Ar ab Emir ates and Kuw ait). The image people have about the r ichness of the Ar ab w or ld needs to be r elativized. The total GDP of the Ar ab countr ies ($ 500 billion dollar s) is not even equal to the GDP of Spain and r epr esents only one four th of t he GDP of Ger many (Elmandjr a 2004).
Follow ing the abovementioned ar gument, Elmandjr a concedes that the major cause of the Ar ab pr oblem is oil, since it ar ouses among major inter national politico-economic inter ests as w ell as the implementation of w hat he calls “...an exogenous model of development w ith an exagger ated r eliance on exter nal sour ces and models w hich stifles cr eativity and innovation” (Elmandjr a 2004: 3). He ar gues that this type of development hinder ed the countr ies to become self-r eliant, hence, the need for an independent Ar ab oil management. Fur ther mor e, as Elmandjr a points out br iefly, ther e ar e other major pr oblems that need ur gent attention such as “...pover ty, illiter acy, the absence of tr uly democr atic institutions including effective mechanisms for the pr otection of human r ights, the lack of investment in r esear ch and development and ver y inadequate educational and cultur al policies” (Elmandjr a 2004: 4).
inspir ations, but this must be enfor ced sw iftly. The main issues that should be confr onted in pr ior ity ar e the pr oblems of pover ty, illiter acy, economic dispar ity and democr acy. Ther efor e, the intellectuals or the educated elites play a significant r ole and their alienation fr om their own cultur al milieu must be r ectified. The thir d alter native is the ‘tr ansfor mation scenar io’ in w hich all the thr ee pr ocesses/ scenar ios ar e combined and br ing r eal change w her eby economic pr osper ity, social justice and democr acy could be achieved (Elmandjr a 1991: 2-4).
Ther efor e, in or der to r ectify the pr oblems and eventually to r econstr uct the Ar ab w or ld in the futur e, Elmandjr a (2004) emphasizes on the significant establishment of tr ue democr atic institutions w hich inspir ed by the people’s ow n vision and pow er , not fr om the one expor ted w ith a "fast-food" fr anchise. He also str esses the need for indigenous development w hich der ives fr om the people’s values, aspir ations, needs and visions of the futur e, and this should come thr ough a democr atic par ticipator y pr ocess and involves a huge amount of w or k, fr om “...those of democr atization and social justice to the most basic objectives such as food self-sufficiency, w ater management, fundamental education and health car e”. How ever , in the context of the Ar ab w or ld, Elmandjr a believes that the futur e w ill be differ ent only thr ough fundamental change w hen the supr emacy of the present mega-imper ial pow er ends and China and India become the new super pow er s. As Elmandjr a (2004: 4) says:
The r eal pr oblem is one of mental str uctur e and the algor ithms w hich w e must yet design and develop in or der to cater for our ow n sur vival. The r eal challenges lie in our mode of thinking and in the way w e set objectives and pr ior ities, develop pr ospective str ategies and secur e political suppor t to tur n them into t angible effor ts.
El Kaidi Youssef in his ar ticle entitled Tr ibut e t o Pr ofessor Mahdi Elmandjr a published in Mor occo Wor ld New s (2013) r egar ds Elmandjr a as “...a man of gr eat intellect and encyclopedic know ledge. But he has not been given his due”. Upon the cur r ent situation in the Ar ab w or ld, El Kaidi says in r egar d to Elmandjr a: “One of his famous ‘pr ophecies’ is w hat came to be known as ‘The Ar ab Spr ing’. In his inter views and lectur es after the first Gulf War , he used to str ess that the ‘int ifada’ in the Ar ab Wor ld is inevitable and it’s only a matter of time. He w as quite sur e that the peoples of the r egion w ill sur ely w ake up of their hiber nation and topple dow n tyr anny. He based his pr ophecy on the pr evalent political cor r uption, despotism, and the lack of basi c human r ights. El Mahdi Elmandjr a lived until he saw the dictator s falling like dominoes”.
The second and thir d appr oaches of Elmandjr a’s analysis evolve in function of at least tw o deter minants: the futur e of Islam w or ldw ide, on one hand, and the futur e of Eur ope on the other . He believes that w ith r espect to the Muslim community living in Eur opean countr ies one is as impor tant as the other , w ithout necessar ily falling into w hat he r ecognizes as a fashionable tr end of ‘Eur opean Islam’ or ‘West er n Islam’3 discour ses because the main pur pose of Islam is
for unity thr ough diver sity, as r epr esented by the concept of the “ummah” w her eby its boundar ies ar e r ather spir itual and socio-cultur al than geogr aphical (Elmandjr a 2005a: 6) . Looking fr om demogr aphic per spective, Elmandjr a asser ts that the pr esent and the futur e of Islam ar e both in Asia, based upon factual evidence:
The total fer tility rate of the Muslim w or ld is slightly above 3 childr en per w oman and 30 per cent of its population is under 15 year s of age. By w ay of compar ison, Wester n Eur ope has a fer tility rate of 1.6, w hich is below r eplacement, and only 17 per cent of its population is under 15. Hence the pr oblem is not only quantitative but also qualitative
w hen compar ing the age pyramids. This is w hy accor ding to the United Nations, Eur ope w ill need 16 million immigr ants betw een 2000 and 2025 (Elmandjr a 2005a: 6).
Noting this huge demand for young, ener getic and industr ious labour s and w or ker s’ to maintain the pr esent linear pr ojection of Wester n economic-scientific-pow er achievements, Elmandjr a r easons that ther e is no qualms that they w ill come fr om the Muslim populations of those Eur opean countr ies, in w hich consist of 7.0% of Fr ance population; 3.9% of Sw eden; 3.4% of Ger many; 3.4% of Belgium; 2.7% of the United Kingdom; 2.0% of the Nether lands; 2.0% of Denmar k; 1.6% of Nor w ay; 1.4% of Italy, and 1.1% of Spain (Elmandjr a 2005a: 6). Even mor e significantly, as Elmandjr a continues, ther e ar e a few ar eas of the Eur opean lands w her e Muslims w ill outnumber their native counter par ts befor e the year 2018 (Elmandjr a 2005a: 6-7).
Hence, he believes that “the futur e of Muslims in Eur ope is affected by this new tr end w hich w ill hopefully evolve to a gr eater under standing and toler ance in the futur e so as t o ensur e a minimal human dignity. This w ill take time...much time” (Elmandjr a 2005b: 10-11) . Thus for Elmandjr a (2005b: 18), the pr oblem is not that of the futur e of Islam w hich he believes w ill continue to thr ive as indicated thr oughout its histor y and confir med by all demogr aphic indicator s, but mor e impor tantly is “the futur e of Muslims in Eur ope”, in w hich depends lar gely w ithin their ow n hands thr ough their ow n deeds in r especting the law s of the host countr ies and their patience and per sever ance to mend the tar nished image of Islam.
Apar t fr om these thr ee r egional/ global dimensions of the Islamic futur es, the other significant contr ibution of Elmandjr a’s thought is per taining to the r ole of w omen in society’s affair s. He fir mly emphasizes that “...ther e is no futur e for Islam w ithout the effective involvement of w omen” (Elmandjr a 1990: 9). In his fur ther ar gument for w omen’s emancipation, he believes that par t of the main r eason of w hy the Muslim societies is lagging behind any other societies is because of the confinement of their w omen into a mar ginal r ole, despite the fact that Muslim w omen amount half of the Muslims population (Elmandjr a 1990: 8). He ar gues that this need t o be r edr essed thr ough “...ser ious social sur veys and analyses, and r equir es a gr eat deal of self-cr iticism as as the r ehabilitation of ijtihād r esour ces. We must take a fr esh look at the or iginal sour ces of our cultur e, and r ead again and mor e car efully, in the light of moder n developments, the teaching of the Qur an” (Elmandjr a 1990: 9).
Over all, Elmandjr a’s discussions on the futur e of Muslims and the Muslim w or ld can be categor ized at least under thr ee main concer ns: the condition of the pr esent backw ar dness of the Muslim w or ld as a r esult of their attitude and outdated mode of thinking; the need for a fr esh outlook and under standing of the or iginal sour ces of their cultur e —the Qur an— and the ur ge for a r er eading of the text in accor dance to the moder n development, and; the lack of vision in the Muslim societies, especially per taining to the concept of democr atic institutionalization, and the par tipation of w omen in society and development – a w aste of half of its human capital. With the cur r ent development in many of the Muslims w or ld, especially w ith the Ar ab Spr ing is still gaining its momentum, it seems that change is inevitable, but the futur e r emains uncer tain. The questions ar e –w hat is the dir ection of this change that is being exper ienced by the Muslims w or ld and w hat it w ill cost them? Explor ations on the answ er s to these questions will shape the futur e of the Muslims and the Muslims w or ld.
Refer ences
Elmandjr a, Mahdi. 1973. The Unit ed Nat ions Syst em: an analysis. London: Faber and Faber . _______. 1990. The Fut ur e of t he Islamic Wor ld. Algier s. 4-7 May.
_______. 1991. The Futur e of the Ar ab Wor ld: thr ee scenar ios. Al-`Alam. Rabat. 2nd Januar y.
_______. 2004. How w ill the Ar ab Wor ld be able to master its ow n independent developments? Kyodo News. 25th September .
_______. 2005a. La pr ession de nuest r o Islam, Spanish Daily “ABC”. 12th September .
Ramadan, Tar iq. 2004. West er n Muslims and t he fut ur e of Islam. Oxfor d: Oxfor d Univer sity Pr ess. _______. 1999. To be a Eur opean Muslim: a study of Islamic sour ces in t he Eur opean cont ext.
Leicester : The Islamic Foundation.
Youssef , El Kaidi. 2013. Tr ibute to Pr ofessor Mahdi Elmandjr a. Mor occo Wor ld News. 1st Januar y.
http:/ / w ww .elmandjr a.or g/ summar y.htm. [9 May 2013] .
