• Nenhum resultado encontrado

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para características de temperamento e de escores visuais em bovinos da raça Nelore

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2017

Share "Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para características de temperamento e de escores visuais em bovinos da raça Nelore"

Copied!
62
0
0

Texto

(1)

81,9(56,'$'((67$'8$/3$8/,67$³-Ò/,2'(0(648,7$),/+2´

)$&8/'$'('(&,Ç1&,$6$*5È5,$6(9(7(5,1È5,$6

&Æ0386'(-$%27,&$%$/

(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$

&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(7(03(5$0(172('(

(6&25(69,68$,6(0%29,126'$5$d$1(/25(

/HQLFH0HQGRQoDGH0HQH]HV

=RRWHFQLVWD

(2)

81,9(56,'$'((67$'8$/3$8/,67$³-Ò/,2'(0(648,7$),/+2´

)$&8/'$'('(&,Ç1&,$6$*5È5,$6(9(7(5,1È5,$6

&Æ0386'(-$%27,&$%$/

(67,0$7,9$6'(3$5Æ0(7526*(1e7,&263$5$

&$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(7(03(5$0(172('(

(6&25(69,68$,6(0%29,126'$5$d$1(/25(

/HQLFH0HQGRQoDGH0HQH]HV

2ULHQWDGRU3URI'U0DWHXV-RVp5RGULJXHV3DUDQKRVGD&RVWD

&R2ULHQWDGRUDV3URID'UD/~FLD*DOYmRGH$OEXTXHUTXH

'UD$ULRQH$XJXVWL%ROLJRQ

-$%27,&$%$/±6­23$8/2±%5$6,/ -DQHLURGH

'LVVHUWDomR DSUHVHQWDGD j )DFXOGDGH GH &LrQFLDV $JUiULDV H 9HWHULQiULDV ± 8QHVS &kPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDO FRPR SDUWH GDV H[LJrQFLDVSDUDDREWHQomRGRWtWXORGH0HVWUH HP*HQpWLFDH0HOKRUDPHQWR$QLPDO

(3)

ŝ

'$'26&855,&8/$5(6'2$8725

/(1,&(0(1'21d$'(0(1(=(6±ILOKDGH-RVLPDU%H]HUUDGH0HQH]HVH*HUODQH 0DFrGR0HQGRQoDQDVFHXQRGLDGHMDQHLURGHQDFLGDGHGH-RmR3HVVRD 3DUDtED(PPDLRGHLQJUHVVRXQD8QLYHUVLGDGH)HGHUDOGD3DUDtEDQRFXUVRGH =RRWHFQLD FRODQGR JUDX HP MXOKR GH ,QJUHVVRX QD 8QLYHUVLGDGH (VWDGXDO 3DXOLVWD ± &DPSXV GH -DERWLFDEDO HP DJRVWR GH QR FXUVR GH 0HVWUDGR HP *HQpWLFD H 0HOKRUDPHQWR $QLPDO REWHQGR R JUDX GH PHVWUH HP GH IHYHUHLUR GH VRE RULHQWDomR GR 3URI 'U 0DWHXV -RVp 5RGULJXHV 3DUDQKRV GD &RVWD H &R 2ULHQWDomR GD 3URID 'UD /~FLD *DOYmR GH $OEXTXHUTXH H GD 'UD $ULRQH $XJXVWL %ROLJRQ

(4)

ŝŝ

1mRSRGHPRVILQJLUTXHQmRQRVDYLVDUDP

1yVWRGRVRXYLPRVRVSURYpUELRV

2XYLPRVRVILOyVRIRV

2XYLPRVRVDYLVRVGRVQRVVRVDYyVVREUHWHPSRSHUGLGR

2XYLPRVRUHFLWDUGRVSRHWDVHQFRUDMDQGRQRVDDSURYHLWDURGLD

0HVPRDVVLPiVYH]HVWHPRVTXHROKDUSDUDQyVPHVPRV

1yVWHPRVTXHFRPHWHUQRVVRVHUURV

7HPRVTXHDSUHQGHUQRVVDVOLo}HV

1yVWHPRVTXHYDUUHUHVVDSRVVLELOLGDGHSUDGHEDL[RGRWDSHWHGRKRMHDQWHVTXH

QmRSRVVDPRVPDLV

$WpTXHILQDOPHQWHHQWHQGDPRVRTXH%HQMDPLP)UDQNOLQTXLVGL]HU

SRUTXHGHL[DUSDUDDPDQKmRTXHSRGHPRVID]HUKRMH

?

(5)

ŝŝŝ

$RVPHXVSDLV-RVLPDUH*HUODQHSRUWRGRVRVVDFULItFLRVDPRUFRPSUHHQVmR

HFXPSOLFLGDGHSRUDFUHGLWDUHPHPPLPPHVPRTXDQGRQHPHXPHVPD

DFUHGLWRVHUFDSD]SRUWHUHPVLGRRVPHOKRUHVHGXFDGRUHVHSRUVHUHPRFROR

PDLVDPRURVRHDFROKHGRU

3RUVHUHPDPLQKDUD]mRGHVHPSUHYROWDUPHVPRTXDQGRRPXQGRPH

HPSXUUDSUDORQJH3RUVHUHPRYHQWRVREDVPLQKDVDVDV

'HGLFR

'HGLFR

'HGLFR

'HGLFR

(6)

ŝǀ

$*5$'(&,0(1726

¬'HXVTXHFRQKHFHPHXVVRQKRVHRVWUDQVIRUPDHPLGHDLV

$RVPHXVSDLVSULQFLSDOPHQWHSRUWRGRDPRU

¬VPLQKDVDPLJDV/DULVVD=HWRXQLH0LOHQH+DWDSRUWHUHPWRUQDGRPHXVGLDVPDLV DOHJUHVHSRUWHUHPPHGDGRDVPHOKRUHVOHPEUDQoDVGHVVDpSRFDGDPLQKDYLGD

$RVPHXVTXHULGRVDPLJRV:HOOLQJWRQ6RDUHV5RGULJR0HQGHV-XOLDQD0DUTXHV

5HQDWD0RXWLQKR*HyUJLD)LJXHLUHGRH$QGUpLD%DWLVWDSRUQXQFDPHHVTXHFHUH WRUQDUDGLVWkQFLDLQVLJQLILFDQWH

$RPHXRULHQWDGRU3URI'U0DWHXV-RVp5RGULJXHV3DUDQKRVGD&RVWDSRUWRGD FRQILDQoDSDFLrQFLDOLo}HVHSULQFLSDOPHQWHSRUWHUPHUHFHELGRVHPUHVHUYDV

¬ PLQKD FRRULHQWDGRUD 3URID 'UD /~FLD *DOYmR GH $OEXTXHUTXH SRU WRGD FRQWULEXLomRQDUHDOL]DomRGRWUDEDOKRHHPPLQKDIRUPDomRSURILVVLRQDO

¬PLQKDFRRULHQWDGRUD'UD$ULRQH$XJXVWL%ROLJRQSRUWRGDDMXGDQDUHDOL]DomRGR WUDEDOKRHWRGDVDVOLo}HVWmRJHQHURVDPHQWHHQVLQDGDV

$RVPHXVFROHJDVGHWUDEDOKRGR*UXSR(7&2HPHVSHFLDO'HVLUpH6RDUHVH3DROD 0RUHWWL SRU WRGD DPL]DGH SUHFLRVDV OLo}HV ULVDGDV FRPSDUWLOKDGDV H SRU VHUHP H[HPSORVGHSURILVVLRQDOLVPRTXHHVSHUROHYDUVHPSUHFRPLJR

$PLQKDFROHJDGHWUDEDOKR$OLQH6DQW¶$QQDSRUWRGDDMXGDQDUHDOL]DomRGRWUDEDOKR

(7)

ǀ

$R3URI'U+XPEHUWR7RQKDWLSHODVYDOLRVDVVXJHVW}HVQRH[DPHGHTXDOLILFDomR TXHFRQWULEXtUDPSDUDRDSULPRUDPHQWRGHVWHWUDEDOKR

¬81(63HDR3URJUDPDGH3yV*UDGXDomRHP*HQpWLFDH0HOKRUDPHQWR$QLPDO SRUPHSURSRUFLRQDUHPWmRYDOLRVDRSRUWXQLGDGHGHFUHVFLPHQWRFLHQWtILFR

¬$JURSHFXiULD-DFDUH]LQKR/WGDSHODFRQFHVVmRGDVLQIRUPDo}HVXWLOL]DGDVQHVWH WUDEDOKR

(8)

ǀŝ

680È5,2

3iJLQD

&$3Ë78/2&216,'(5$d®(6*(5$,6

,QWURGXomR

7HPSHUDPHQWR

(VFRUHV9LVXDLV

3DUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRV

(VWLPDWLYDGHKHUGDELOLGDGH

&RUUHODomR*HQpWLFD

2EMHWLYRV*HUDLV

5()(5Ç1&,$6

&$3Ë78/2 (67,0$7,9$6 '( 3$5Æ0(7526 *(1e7,&26 3$5$ &$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6 '( 7(03(5$0(172 ( '( (6&25(6 9,68$,6 ( 68$6 5(/$d®(6 87,/,=$1'2 ,1)(5Ç1&,$%$<(6,$1$

5(6802

,QWURGXomR

0DWHULDOH0pWRGRV

5HVXOWDGRVH'LVFXVVmR

&RQFOXV}HV

5()(5Ç1&,$6

(9)

ǀŝŝ

/,67$'(7$%(/$6

3iJLQD

&$3Ë78/2 (67,0$7,9$6 '( 3$5Æ0(7526 *(1e7,&26 3$5$ &$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(7(03(5$0(172('((6&25(69,68$,6(68$6 5(/$d®(687,/,=$1'2,1)(5Ç1&,$%$<(6,$1$

7DEHOD'HVFULomRGRDUTXLYRGHGDGRVGDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSHVRDRGHVPDPH 3'YHORFLGDGHGHVDtGD96HVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7HHVFRUHVYLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR &6 SUHFRFLGDGH 36 H PXVFXODWXUD 06 GD UDoD 1HORUH

7DEHOD(VWDWtVWLFDGHVFULWLYDGDVPpGLDVGDVHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHGLUHWD DSRVWHULRULSDUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7YHORFLGDGHGH VDtGD96HHVFRUHVYLVXDLVDRVREUHDQRGHFRQIRUPDomR&6SUHFRFLGDGH36 H PXVFXODWXUD 06 REWLGDV D SDUWLU GH DQiOLVHV ED\HVLDQDV WULFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV

7DEHOD ± (VWLPDWLYDV D SRVWHULRUL GDV FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HQWUH RV HVFRUHV YLVXDLVDRVREUHDQRGHFRQIRUPDomR&6SUHFRFLGDGH36HPXVFXODWXUD06 HDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7HYHORFLGDGHGHVDtGD96HP DQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUH

(10)

ǀŝŝŝ

/,67$'(),*85$6

&$3Ë78/2 (67,0$7,9$6 '( 3$5Æ0(7526 *(1e7,&26 3$5$ &$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(7(03(5$0(172('((6&25(69,68$,6(68$6 5(/$d®(687,/,=$1'2,1)(5Ç1&,$%$<(6,$1$

3iJLQD

)LJXUD )UHTXrQFLDV GRV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD DYDOLDGRV DR VREUHDQR &6 3606 UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH HP ERYLQRV GDUDoD1HORUH

)LJXUD)UHTXrQFLDVGRVHVFRUHVGHWHPSHUDPHQWRDYDOLDGRVDRHPERYLQRVGD UDoD1HORUH

(11)

ŝdž

(67,0$7,9$6 '( 3$5Æ0(7526 *(1e7,&26 3$5$ &$5$&7(5,67,&$6 '( 7(03(5$0(172('((6&25(69,68$,6(0%29,126'$5$d$1(/25(

5(6802±(VWHHVWXGRWHYHFRPRREMHWLYRDYDOLDUDVUHODo}HVHQWUHRWHPSHUDPHQWRH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHHVFRUHVYLVXDLV8WLOL]RXVHDHVWDWtVWLFDED\HVLDQDFRPDQiOLVHVWUL FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVVREPRGHORDQLPDOOLQHDUOLPLDUQDREWHQomRGRVSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVH HVWLPDomRGHFRHILFLHQWHVGHFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDVHQGRRVHJXLQWHPRGHORXWLOL]DGR\ ;β=D=P=FH)RUDPDYDOLDGDVDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVFRQIRUPDomR&6

SUHFRFLGDGH 36 PXVFXODWXUD 06 HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR (7 H YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD 96 DYDOLDGDV DR VREUHDQR DOpP GR SHVR DR GHVPDPH 3' FRPR FDUDFWHUtVWLFD ³kQFRUD´ 3DUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV &6 36 H 06 RV PDLRUHV HVFRUHV LQGLFDUDPDVPHOKRUHVH[SUHVV}HVGDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV3DUDR(7RVPDLRUHVHVFRUHV LQGLFDUDPDQLPDLVGHSLRUWHPSHUDPHQWRHSDUD96RVPDLRUHVYDORUHVLQGLFDUDPRV DQLPDLVGHPHOKRUWHPSHUDPHQWR)RUDPXWLOL]DGRVGDGRVGHDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUH FRP DQLPDLV QD PDWUL] GH SDUHQWHVFR QDVFLGRV HQWUH H SHUWHQFHQWHVj$JURSHFXiULD-DFDUH]LQKR/WGD$VKHUGDELOLGDGHVHVWLPDGDVSDUD(7 96&636H06IRUDP±±±±H±

UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH $V FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HQWUH WHPSHUDPHQWR H HVFRUHV YLVXDLV IRUDPIDYRUiYHLVHQWUHWDQWREDL[DV(7[&6 ±(7[36 ±H

(7[06 ±96[&6 ±96[36 ±H96[06

± 1mR UHFRPHQGDVH D VHOHomR LQGLUHWD SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWR DWUDYpV GD

VHOHomRSDUDRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGH&636RX06$LQFOXVmRGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7RX 96H&636H06VLPXOWDQHDPHQWHQRVtQGLFHVGHVHOHomRSRGHVHUUHDOL]DGDFRP DH[SHFWDWLYDGHPXGDQoDVDORQJRSUD]R

3DODYUDVFKDYH HVWDWtVWLFD ED\HVLDQD ERYLQRV FRUUHODomR HVFRUHV YLVXDLV WHPSHUDPHQWR

(12)

dž

(67,0$7(6 2) *(1(7,& 3$5$0(7(56 2) 7(03(5$0(17 $1'

9,68$/6&25(62)1(/25(%5(('

6800$5<±7KLVVWXG\DLPVWRHYDOXDWHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWHPSHUDPHQWDQG YLVXDOVFRUHVWUDLWV%D\HVLDQVWDWLVWLFVZDVXVHGZLWKWULFKDUDFWHULVWLFDQDO\VLVXQGHU WKHOLQHDUWUHVKROGDQLPDOPRGHOWRREWDLQWKHJHQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHHVWLPDWLRQRI FRHIILFLHQWVRIJHQHWLFFRUUHODWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHIROORZLQJPRGHO\ ;β=D=P =FH7KHIROORZLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGFRQIRUPDWLRQ&6SUHFRFLW\ 36PXVFXODULW\06WHPSHUDPHQWVFRUH(7DQGIOLJKWVSHHG96HYDOXDWHGDWWKH \HDUOLQJEHVLGHVWKHZHDQLQJZHLJKW3'DVDQ³DQFKRU´WUDLW)RU&636DQG06WKH JUHDWHVWVFRUHVLQGLFDWHWKHEHVWH[SUHVVLRQVRIFKDUDFWHULVWLFV)RUWKH(7WKHKLJKHVW VFRUH LQGLFDWH DQLPDOV ZLWK WKH ZRUVW WHPSHUDPHQW DQG IRU 96 WKH KLJKHVW YDOXHV LQGLFDWH DQLPDOV ZLWK WKH EHVW WHPSHUDPHQW 'DWD IURP 1HORUH FDWWOH LQ WKH NLQVKLS PDWUL[ ERUQ EHWZHHQ DQG EHORQJLQJ WR WKH $JURSHFXiULD -DFDUH]LQKR/WGDZHUHXVHGIRUWKHDQDO\VLV7KHHVWLPDWHGKHULWDELOLW\IRU(796&6 36 DQG 06 ZHUH ± ± ± ± H ±

UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH JHQHWLF FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WHPSHUDPHQW DQG YLVXDO VFRUHV ZHUH IDYRUDEOHVEXWORZ(7[&6 ±(7[36 ±H(7[06 ±

96[&6 ±96[36 ±H96[06 ±,WLVQRW

UHFRPPHQGHGWRDSSO\LQGLUHFWVHOHFWLRQIRUWHPSHUDPHQWWKURXJKWKHVHOHFWLRQIRUWKH YLVXDOVFRUHVRI&636RU067KHLQFOXVLRQRIWHPSHUDPHQW(7RU96DQG&636 DQG 06 VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ LQ WKH VHOHFWLRQ LQGLFHV PD\ EH SHUIRUPHG ZLWK WKH H[SHFWDWLRQRIORQJWHUPHIIHFWV

(13)

ϭ

&$3Ë78/2±&216,'(5$d®(6*(5$,6

,QWURGXomR

$WXDOPHQWH R %UDVLO RFXSD XPD SRVLomR GH GHVWDTXH QR PHUFDGR PXQGLDO GH FDUQHERYLQD.285<),/+2HWDOFRPUHEDQKRH[SORUDGRSDUDFRUWHGH PLOK}HVGH FDEHoDV QR DQR GHH SURMHomRGH PLOK}HVSDUD RDQR GH $18$/3(&&RPRSDUWHLQWHJUDQWHGHVVHSDQRUDPDRPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFR H[HUFHSDSHOIXQGDPHQWDOLQFUHPHQWDQGRGHIRUPDVXEVWDQFLDODSURGXomRGHFDUQHSRU KHFWDUH JUDoDV DR PHOKRU SRWHQFLDO JHQpWLFR SDUD SURGXWLYLGDGH GRV DQLPDLV H[SORUDGRVRTXHUHVXOWDHPPHOKRULDGDSURGXWLYLGDGH

'HVGHRLQtFLRGDGRPHVWLFDomRGRVERYLQRVGLIHUHQWHVIDWRUHVWrPWUDQVIRUPDGR RVDQLPDLVTXDQWRjVVXDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVPRUIROyJLFDVHFRPSRUWDPHQWDLVVREUHWXGRD VHOHomRDUWLILFLDO(QWUHWDQWRDWD[DHDH[WHQVmRGDV PXGDQoDVJHQpWLFDVUHVXOWDQWHV GHVVHSURFHVVRVHOHWLYRDRORQJRGRWHPSRIRUDPGLIHUHQWHVHHVSHFtILFDVSDUDFDGD HVSpFLHPHLRH FRQGLo}HV GHPDQHMR HPSUHJDGDV %$57/(77 )5$1.+$0 /2(%(/35,&(

$WXDOPHQWHDVHOHomRpGLUHFLRQDGDSDUDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLQWHUHVVHHFRQ{PLFR EXVFDQGRDWHQGHUDVH[LJrQFLDVGRVVLVWHPDVGHSURGXomRHGRPHUFDGRFRQVXPLGRU 1R %UDVLO RV SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR WrP VHOHFLRQDGR DQLPDLV SULQFLSDOPHQWH DWUDYpV GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV OLJDGDV D FUHVFLPHQWR H IHUWLOLGDGH QRWDGDPHQWH JDQKR SHVR H SHUtPHWUR HVFURWDO H FRQIRUPDomR VHQGR PDLV UHFHQWHPHQWHLQFOXtGDDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDWHPSHUDPHQWR

(14)

Ϯ

PHQVXUDGDV H FRP FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD IDYRUiYHO R TXH QRV LQGLFD TXH DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHPTXHVWmRVmRFRQWURODGDVRXLQIOXHQFLDGDVSHORPHVPRJHQHRXSHOR PHVPRFRQMXQWRGHJHQHV

7HPSHUDPHQWR

2WHPSHUDPHQWRSRGHVHUGHILQLGRFRPRRFRQMXQWRGHUHDo}HVGRVDQLPDLVHP UHODomRDRVHUKXPDQRJHUDOPHQWHDWULEXtGRDRPHGR)25'<&(HWDOVHQGR FDUDFWHUL]DGRFRPRXPWUDoRKHUHGLWiULRHUHODWLYDPHQWHHVWiYHOQRSDGUmRGHHPRo}HV EiVLFDV GRV DQLPDLV 0853+(< HW DO %2,66< %28,6628 /( 1(,1'5(HWDO)25'<&(HWDO'$9,6 '(1,6(%528ý(.HW DO R TXH WRUQD SRVVtYHO FRQVLGHUDU HVWD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR HP EXVFD GH DQLPDLV PHQRV H[FLWiYHLV %528ý(. HW DO *5$1',1

2 WHPSHUDPHQWR p XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD LPSRUWDQWH SDUD R VLVWHPD SURGXWLYR GH ERYLQRVGHFRUWHHWHPFRQVHTXrQFLDVSUiWLFDVHHFRQ{PLFDV%$5%26$6,/9(,5$HW DO SRU LQIOXHQFLDU R SRWHQFLDO SURGXWLYR GH UHEDQKRV XPD YH] TXH WHP FRUUHODomR FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH GHVHPSHQKR H TXDOLGDGH GH FDUFDoD H SULQFLSDOPHQWHUHODomRFRPDVSHFWRVIDFLOLWDGRUHVGRGLDDGLDGRPDQHMREHPHVWDUH VHJXUDQoDGRVDQLPDLVHIXQFLRQiULRV&$51(,52HWDO

3RU XP ORQJR WHPSR R SURFHVVR GH GRPHVWLFDomR DOWHURX QmR Vy DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV ItVLFDV GRV DQLPDLV PDV WDPEpP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV FRPSRUWDPHQWDLV DWUDYpV GD VHOHomR SDUD FRPSRUWDPHQWRV DGHTXDGRV jV QHFHVVLGDGHV KXPDQDV WDLV FRPR WHQGrQFLD GH DJUXSDPHQWR VRFLDO PHQRU GLVWkQFLD GH IXJD H FDSDFLGDGH GH DGDSWDomRDXPDDPSODJDPDGHFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLV35,&(

(15)

ϯ

([LVWHP UHODWRV GH UHVXOWDGRV IDYRUiYHLV SDUD D VHOHomR FRQMXQWD FRQVLGHUDQGR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SURGXWLYDV H GH WHPSHUDPHQWR )25'<&( HW DO GHPRQVWUDUDP TXHERYLQRVPDLVSHVDGRVDSUHVHQWDUDPPHOKRUHVHVFRUHVGHWHPSHUDPHQWRVXJHULQGR TXH VHOHomR SDUD PDLRUHV WD[DV GH FUHVFLPHQWR SRGHULDP PHOKRUDU WHPSHUDPHQWR H YLFHYHUVD

$V GLIHUHQoDV FRPSRUWDPHQWDLV HQWUH UDoDV ERYLQDV RX PHVPR HQWUH DV OLQKDJHQV GHQWUR GH XPD PHVPD UDoD VmR WDPEpP LQIOXHQFLDGDV SHOD FRPSRVLomR JHQpWLFDGRVDQLPDLVGHIRUPDTXHIDWRUHVJHQpWLFRVWrPXPLPSRUWDQWHLPSDFWRVREUH FRPR RV DQLPDLV UHDJHP DR PDQHMR *5$1',1 QR HQWDQWR R WHPSHUDPHQWR DVVLPFRPRWRGDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDGHKHUDQoDSROLJrQLFDWHUiVXDH[SUHVVmRDIHWDGDSRU IDWRUHV DPELHQWDLV H[LVWLQGR HYLGrQFLDV GH TXH R PDQHMR PDO FRQGX]LGR UHVXOWD HP FRPSURPHWLPHQWR QR GHVHPSHQKR GRV ERYLQRV H QR DXPHQWR GD UHDWLYLGDGH +(06:257+HWDO

'LYHUVRVHVWXGRVWrPFKDPDGRDWHQomRSDUDRIDWRGHTXHRQtYHOGHUHDWLYLGDGH GRV ERYLQRV HVWi UHODFLRQDGR FRP D VHJXUDQoD H R EHP HVWDU GRV KXPDQRV H GRV SUySULRVDQLPDLVFRPDSURGXWLYLGDGHGRUHEDQKRHDTXDOLGDGHGDFDUQH)25'<&(HW DO*5$1',1%528ý(.HWDO)RLFLWDGRSRU%$552=2HWDO TXHXPGRVJDUJDORVGDSURGXomRGHFDUQHERYLQDpRH[FHVVRGHKHPDWRPDV QDV FDUFDoDV VXJHULQGR LQFOXVLYH TXH D DYDOLDomR SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWR GRV DQLPDLV SURSRUFLRQD D VHOHomR GH DQLPDLV PHQRV SUREOHPiWLFRV R TXH GHYH UHGX]LU HVVH SUREOHPD

'H DFRUGR FRP %528ý(. HW DO D VHOHomR SDUD IHQyWLSRV FRPSRUWDPHQWDLV IDYRUiYHLV DXPHQWDULD D FDSDFLGDGH GRV DQLPDLV OLGDUHP FRP HVWUHVVRUHV HQFRQWUDGRV HP VLVWHPDV PRGHUQRV GH FULDomR PHOKRUDQGR R EHP HVWDU DQLPDOSURGXWLYLGDGHHDVHJXUDQoDSDUDRVKXPDQRVQRPDQHMRGRUHEDQKR

(16)

ϰ

$OpP GLVVR Ki UHODWRV GH TXH R WHPSHUDPHQWR DIHWD D VXVFHSWLELOLGDGH D GRHQoDV VHQGR RV DQLPDLV PHQRV UHDWLYRV GH DFRUGR FRP RV HVFRUHV GH WHPSHUDPHQWRPHQRVVXVFHSWtYHLVDGRHQoDV%8552:HWDO$GLFLRQDOPHQWH DQLPDLV FODVVLILFDGRV FRPR PDLV UHDWLYRV SRU )(// HW DO DSUHVHQWDUDP QtYHLV PDLV HOHYDGRV GH FRUWLVRO QD GHVPDPD H DSyV GLDV GH FRQILQDPHQWR PDLRU PRUELGDGH H PHQRU PpGLD GH JDQKR GH SHVR TXDQGR FRPSDUDGRV FRP R JUXSR FODVVLILFDGRFRPRPHQRVUHDWLYR

$ H[SHULrQFLD SUpYLD WDPEpP p LPSRUWDQWH QD IRUPDomR GR FRPSRUWDPHQWR GRV DQLPDLV 3DUD TXDOTXHU DQLPDO XPD H[SHULrQFLD LQLFLDO FRPR SRU H[HPSOR R FXLGDGR UHFHELGRGHVXDPmHRXDIRUPDFRPRIRLWUDWDGRSRUKXPDQRVRXPHVPRSRURXWURV DQLPDLV GHWHUPLQD FRPR HOH LUi UHVSRQGHU D SHVVRDV OXJDUHV RX VLWXDo}HV SRVWHULRUPHQWH*5$1',1

&DGDYH]pPDLVFRPXPRXVRGHVLVWHPDVGHSURGXomRHPTXHRVDQLPDLVVmR PDQWLGRV HP JUXSRV H HP WDLV VLVWHPDVR FRPSRUWDPHQWR VRFLDOSRGH WHU XPLPSDFWR VREUH D SURGXomRH D VD~GH GRV DQLPDLV (P VLVWHPDV GH FULDomR WUDGLFLRQDLVLGDGHH[SHULrQFLDSUpYLDVH[RUDoDHPDQHMRVmRRVSULQFLSDLVIDWRUHVTXH LQIOXHQFLDP R WHPSHUDPHQWR H VXD UHODomR FRP DV PHGLGDV FRUSRUDLV GH ERYLQRV %528ý(.HWDO

$V UDoDV ERYLQDV GRPpVWLFDV VmR WUDGLFLRQDOPHQWH GLYLGLGDV HP GRLV JUXSRV UDoDVWDXULQDV%RVWDXUXVHUDoDV]HEXtQDV%RVLQGLFXV(PERUDWRGDVLQFOXDPUDoDV GH FRUWH H OHLWH VXDV FRQVWLWXLo}HV JHQpWLFDV VH PDQLIHVWDP QDV GLIHUHQoDV GH WLSRV PRUIROyJLFRVHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR*5$1',1'HQWUHDVUDoDV]HEXtQDVD1HORUH pDPDLVQXPHURVDQR%UDVLO

(17)

ϱ

$ DYDOLDomR GR WHPSHUDPHQWR GH ERYLQRV p XPD IHUUDPHQWD TXH SRGH VHU XWLOL]DGDSHODSHVTXLVDHSHORSURGXWRUDSHUIHLoRDQGRRVVLVWHPDVFULDWyULRV%$5%26$ 6,/9(,5$HWDO'HIRUPDJHUDOQRVVLVWHPDVGHSURGXomREXVFDPVHDQLPDLV GH³PHOKRUWHPSHUDPHQWR´TXHVHMDPPDLVDGDSWDGRVDRPDQHMRHH[SUHVVHPSRXFD UHDWLYLGDGH DWp SRUTXH DQLPDLV FODVVLILFDGRV FRPR GH SLRU WHPSHUDPHQWR VmR PDLV H[FLWiYHLVHDJLWDGRVLQJHUHPPHQRUTXDQWLGDGHGHDOLPHQWRVQmRVHDGDSWDPDQRYDV VLWXDo}HVFRPIDFLOLGDGHHVmRPDLVGLItFHLVGHPDQHMDURTXHOHYDDPDLRUHVULVFRVGH DFLGHQWHVFRPRVWUDEDOKDGRUHV*5$1',1 '((6,1*

(VSHUDVHTXHDVHOHomRSDUDPHOKRUWHPSHUDPHQWRDX[LOLHQDFULDomRGHDQLPDLV PDLVFDOPRVHWROHUDQWHVDRPDQHMRKXPDQRRTXHpH[WUHPDPHQWHLPSRUWDQWHGHYLGRj FUHVFHQWH H[LJrQFLD GRV IULJRUtILFRV H FRQVXPLGRUHV SRU FDUFDoDV XQLIRUPHV FRP DOWD UHQWDELOLGDGH SRXFD SHUGD SRU KHPDWRPDV H TXH WHQKDP RULJHP HP DQLPDLV TXH WLYHUDPERDVFRQGLo}HVGHEHPHVWDUGXUDQWHVXDFULDomRHPDQHMR

$VVLPRWHPSHUDPHQWRHPERYLQRVGHFRUWHYHPVHQGRHVWXGDGRTXDQWRDVVXDV UHODo}HVFRPDSURGXomRDQLPDOEXVFDQGRVHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVTXHDSUHVHQWHPYDORUHV UD]RiYHLVGHFRUUHODomRFRPRWHPSHUDPHQWR)25'<&(HWDO)25'<&(HWDO *5$1',1 *5$1',1 HW DO WHQGR HP FRQWD TXH R WHPSHUDPHQWR YHPVHQGRGHVFULWRFRPRXPDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDGHEDL[DDPRGHUDGDKHUGDELOLGDGH

$VVLP FDUDFWHUL]DU H PHGLU R WHPSHUDPHQWR VmR RV GHVDILRV DWXDLV QHFHVVLWDQGRVHGHXPDPHWRGRORJLD TXHSHUPLWD XPD DERUGDJHPHILFLHQWH VHJXUDH GH IiFLO DSOLFDomR SDUD VHU GH XVR JHQHUDOL]DGR QR PHLR FULDWyULR 3$5$1+26 '$ &267$3DUDTXHDSHVTXLVDFLHQWtILFDVREUHHVVDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHMDSRVVtYHOp QHFHVViULRTXHVHMDPRVFDSD]HVGHPHGLURWHPSHUDPHQWRGHFDGDDQLPDOHSDUDTXH HVWD PHGLGD VHMD ~WLOXPD SRQWXDomRGHYH VHU FRUUHODFLRQDGDFRP R FRPSRUWDPHQWRGXUDQWHRVSURFHGLPHQWRVGHPDQHMRQRUPDO)25'<&(HWDO

(18)

ϲ

'H PRGR JHUDO DV DYDOLDo}HV GH WHPSHUDPHQWR SRGHP VHU GLYLGLGDV HP GXDV FDWHJRULDVSULQFLSDLVFRPRXVHPFRQWHQomRItVLFDTXHLUmRDSUHVHQWDUUHVXOWDGRVQmR FRPSDUiYHLV XPD YH] TXH R FRPSRUWDPHQWR GH XP DQLPDO HP XPD VLWXDomR VRE FRQWHQomRSRGHVHUGLIHUHQWHGRFRPSRUWDPHQWRDSUHVHQWDGRQDDXVrQFLDGDPHVPD $VVXPHVH TXH DV UHVSRVWDV REWLGDV HP WHVWHV FRP FRQWHQomR VHMDP YiOLGDV SDUD SURFHGLPHQWRVGHPDQHMRFRPRSHVDJHQVHYDFLQDo}HVMiRVWHVWHVVHPFRQWHQomRVmR ~WHLVSDUDVLWXDo}HVRQGHRVDQLPDLVSHUPDQHFHPVROWRV

$VVLPILFDFODURTXHKiXPDJUDQGHYDULHGDGHGHPHWRGRORJLDVGLVSRQtYHLVSDUD DYDOLDU R WHPSHUDPHQWR DQLPDO HVSHFLDOPHQWH GH ERYLQRV VHQGR TXH D HVFROKD GD PHWRGRORJLD D VHU DGRWDGD GHSHQGH GH IDWRUHV FRPR DV FRQGLo}HV GH FULDomR DV LQVWDODo}HVSUHVHQWHVQDSURSULHGDGHRWUHLQDPHQWRGHPmRGHREUDTXDOLILFDGDSDUDD H[HFXomRGRVWHVWHVDGLVSRQLELOLGDGHGHHTXLSDPHQWRVHQWUHRXWURVPDVVREUHWXGRD PHWRGRORJLD HVFROKLGD GHYH SRVVLELOLWDU D DYDOLDomRGD YDULDELOLGDGH H[LVWHQWH HQWUHRV LQGLYtGXRVGRUHEDQKR

([LVWHPWHVWHVGHWHPSHUDPHQWRTXHXWLOL]DPDDSOLFDomRGHHVFRUHVSDUDDYDOLDU RJUDXGHUHDWLYLGDGHGRDQLPDOTXDQGRHVWHpVXEPHWLGRDXPDVLWXDomRHVWUHVVDQWH FRPRSRUH[HPSORDVDWLYLGDGHVGHSHVDJHPHGHFRQWHQomRQRWURQFRRXVHULQJDTXH VmRDWLYLGDGHVURWLQHLUDVGHPDQHMR2XWURVXWLOL]DPPHGLGDVTXDQWLWDWLYDVGDYHORFLGDGH RXGRWHPSRTXHRVDQLPDLVJDVWDPSDUDSHUFRUUHUGHWHUPLQDGDGLVWkQFLDUHODFLRQDQGR DPDLRUYHORFLGDGHFRPPDLRUDJLWDomRHPDLRUUHDWLYLGDGHGRVDQLPDLV%8552:HW DO 3(7+(5,&. HW DO 0h//(5 .(<6(5/,1*. %$5%26$ 6,/9(,5$HWDO

(PERUDRVHVIRUoRVSDUDDREWHQomRGHDQLPDLVFRPUHDWLYLGDGHIDYRUiYHOVHMDP QRWiYHLV QmR Ki PXLWDV GHVFULo}HV GH FRPR HVVDV DYDOLDo}HV YHP VHQGR IHLWDV H SULQFLSDOPHQWH TXDLV PHGLGDV WrP VLGR XWLOL]DGDV LQIRUPDo}HV HVVDV HVVHQFLDLV HP SURJUDPDVGHPHOKRUDPHQWRJHQpWLFR3$5$1+26'$&267$HWDO

(19)

ϳ

(VFRUHVYLVXDLV

2V SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR GH ERYLQRV QR %UDVLO SDVVDUDP SRU YiULDV IDVHV 3ULPHLUDPHQWH D VHOHomR HUD EDVHDGD HP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV TXDOLWDWLYDV SULQFLSDOPHQWHUHODFLRQDGDVFRPDFDUDFWHUL]DomRUDFLDO$SDUWLUGHPHDGRVGR~OWLPR VpFXOR D DSOLFDomR GD VHOHomR SDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH SURGXomR IRL LPSODQWDGD *$51(52HWDO

3RUDOJXPWHPSRDVHOHomRIRLIHLWDTXDVHTXHH[FOXVLYDPHQWHFRPEDVHQRSHVR RX QRV JDQKRV HP SHVR HP GHWHUPLQDGDV LGDGHV SULRUL]DQGR DQLPDLV H[WUHPDPHQWH JUDQGHVHWDUGLRVRTXHDRORQJRGRWHPSRSRGHDXPHQWDURSHVRjLGDGHDGXOWDH DXPHQWDURVUHTXHULPHQWRVQXWULFLRQDLVGRVDQLPDLVHHVVDVLWXDomRWHPVHPRVWUDGR LQVXILFLHQWH SDUD DWLQJLU RV REMHWLYRV GRV SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR SULQFLSDOPHQWH HP VLVWHPDV GH SURGXomR D SDVWR UHSUHVHQWDQGR SUHMXt]RV GH RUGHP HFRQ{PLFD H UHSURGXWLYD -25*( -Ò1,25 HW DO 0(5&$'$17( HW DO &267$ HW DO ',%,$6,HWDO

(PERUD D VHOHomR FRP EDVH QR SHVR VHMD XPD UHDOLGDGH KLVWRULFDPHQWH QRV SURJUDPDVGHSURYDVGHJDQKRGHSHVRWrPVLGRHPSUHJDGRVGLYHUVRVVLVWHPDVSDUD DYDOLDU RV DQLPDLV SRU RXWUD IRUPD TXH QmR VHMD JDQKR HP SHVR RX HQJRUGD /21* ,VWRQRVUHPHWHjGHFODUDomRIHLWDSRU/21*GHTXHDVHOHomRQmRSRGH VHUSHQVDGDVRPHQWHHPSHVRPDVVLPQDFRPSRVLomRHGLVWULEXLomRGRSHVR$EXVFD SRUDQLPDLVSUHFRFHVGHFLFORFXUWRHTXHDWHQGHVVHPjVH[LJrQFLDVGRPHUFDGRHP WHUPRV GH TXDQWLGDGH H TXDOLGDGH WHP H[LJLGR PXGDQoDV QRV FULWpULRV GH VHOHomR -25*(-Ò1,25HWDO

(20)

ϴ

RVFXVWRVGRSURFHVVRGHWRPDGDGHPHGLGDVSDUDDDYDOLDomRJHQpWLFD%$552=2HW DO

(PERUD R XVR GH DYDOLDomR YLVXDO VHMD UHODWLYDPHQWH UHFHQWH R SULQFtSLR GR PpWRGR GDWD GHVGH D GRPHVWLFDomR GRV DQLPDLV XPD YH] TXH R ROKR KXPDQR p XWLOL]DGRGHVGHRLQtFLRGRSURFHVVRGHGRPHVWLFDomRFRPRIHUUDPHQWDGHVHOHomRGH ERYLQRV TXH DWHQGDP jV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV DOPHMDGDV SHOR KRPHP -26$+.,$1 %$552=2HWDO

$DYDOLDomRYLVXDOFRQWLQXDVHQGRXWLOL]DGDHPLQ~PHUDVVLWXDo}HVFRPRFULWpULR GHFRPSUDHGHVFDUWHGRVDQLPDLVFRQFHVVmRGHUHJLVWURVJHQHDOyJLFRVSRUWpFQLFRVGH DVVRFLDo}HVGDVPDLVGLYHUVDVUDoDVERYLQDVHPMXOJDPHQWRVFRPSDUDWLYRVQDVSLVWDV GHH[SRVLo}HVDJURSHFXiULDVHHPDFDVDODPHQWRVGLULJLGRVHPTXHPXLWRVSURILVVLRQDLV DQDOLVDPRH[WHULRUGRVDQLPDLVHPFRPSOHPHQWRDGDGRVGHJHQHDORJLDGHVHPSHQKR IHQRWtSLFRHHPDYDOLDo}HVJHQpWLFDVTXDQGRH[LVWHQWHV.285<),/+2HWDO (P H[SRVLo}HV GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWH D DYDOLDomR PRUIROyJLFD H[HUFH XPD JUDQGH LQIOXrQFLD QD XWLOL]DomR H FRPHUFLDOL]DomR GH UHSURGXWRUHV H VrPHQ )$5,$ HW DO D

6HJXQGR1,&+2/621 %877(5:257+XPJUDQGHQ~PHURGHDQLPDLV SRGH VHU DYDOLDGR YLVXDOPHQWH IDFLOLWDQGR R SURFHVVR H PLQLPL]DQGR R HVWUHVVH GRV DQLPDLV DOpP GH DSUHVHQWDU EDL[R FXVWR GH LPSODQWDomR $GLFLRQDOPHQWH .285< ),/+2 HW DO DILUPDUDP TXH D DSOLFDomR GH HVFRUHV YLVXDLV HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR p YLiYHO SRLV HVWHV VmR FROHWDGRV SRU PHWRGRORJLDV GHILQLGDV SRU FRQFHLWRV UHSOLFiYHLV LGHQWLILFDQGR GH PDQHLUD PHQRV VXEMHWLYDV GLIHUHQoDV PRUIROyJLFDVUHODFLRQDGDVDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHLQWHUHVVHHFRQ{PLFRQDVHOHomR

2SULQFLSDOREMHWLYRGDVHOHomRSDUDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHQYROYLGDVQDDYDOLDomRYLVXDO GHGLIHUHQWHVWLSRVPRUIROyJLFRVpLGHQWLILFDURVDQLPDLVTXHQDVFRQGLo}HVGHFULDomR HPTXHHVWmRLQVHULGRVHHPDFRUGRFRPDVH[LJrQFLDVGRPHUFDGRFRQVXPLGRUVHMDP VDWLVIDWRULDPHQWHHILFLHQWHVHPPHQRVWHPSR

(21)

ϵ

VHPHOKDQoDHQWUHVLMiWHQGRVLGRFLWDGRSRU/21*TXHDPDLRULDGRVPpWRGRV GH DYDOLDomR YLVXDO p XPD PRGLILFDomR GR VLVWHPD $QNRQ\ $ GHILQLomR GH TXDO PHWRGRORJLDVHUiDSOLFDGDpIHLWDFRPEDVHQRREMHWLYRTXHVHSUHWHQGHDWLQJLUFRPD VHOHomR 'HVVD IRUPD RV SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR SRGHP GHVHQYROYHU VHXV SUySULRV PHLRV GH DYDOLDomR GH HVFRUHV YLVXDLV FRP EDVH QDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV UHOHYDQWHVSDUDRSURJUDPD

3DUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRV

(VWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGH

6HJXQGR )$/&21(5 D KHUGDELOLGDGH Kð p GHILQLGD FRPR D UD]mR GD YDULkQFLDJHQpWLFDDGLWLYDSDUDDYDULkQFLDIHQRWtSLFDH[SUHVVDQGRDFRQILDQoDGRYDORU IHQRWtSLFRFRPRXPJXLDSDUDRYDORUJHQpWLFRRXRJUDXGHFRUUHVSRQGrQFLDHQWUHYDORU IHQRWtSLFRHYDORUJHQpWLFR3RUWDQWRDUHVSRVWDjVHOHomRLUiGHSHQGHUGRYDORUGDK

HVWLPDGDSDUDDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDTXHVHGHVHMDVHOHFLRQDU

9iULRV HVWXGRV WrP HVWLPDGR D KHUGDELOLGDGH SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWR HP YiULDV UDoDVVHQGRUHODWDGRVYDORUHVGH6,/9$HWDOSDUDDUDoD1HORUHD SDUD DQLPDLV GHULYDGRV GH ]HEX %8552: &25%(7 H SDUD GLIHUHQWHV PHWRGRORJLDVGHDYDOLDomRVHQGRUHODWDGRVYDORUHVGHSDUDYHORFLGDGHGHVDtGD &$51(,52HWDOHSDUDHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR%$552=2HWDO

$GLFLRQDOPHQWH HP HVWXGR FRQGX]LGR SRU %8552: HW DO RV DXWRUHV YHULILFDUDP YDULDomR QD KHUGDELOLGDGH HP IXQomR GD LGDGH GRV DQLPDLV FRP YDORU GH TXDQGRRWHPSHUDPHQWRIRLPHGLGRDRVPHVHVGHLGDGHHGHSDUDDPHVPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD REWLGD DRV PHVHV GH LGDGH HP DQLPDLV SURGXWRV GH FUX]DPHQWR $IULFDQGHU[+HUHIRUG6KRUWKRUQ$;HDQLPDLVSURGXWRGHFUX]DPHQWRUHFtSURFRHQWUH DDQLPDLV$;HDQLPDLVGDUDoD%UDKPDQ

(22)

ϭϬ

.285< ),/+2 HW DO D H )$5,$ HW DO UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHSDUDDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUHDYDOLDGRVDRVREUHDQR

2VUHVXOWDGRVSDUDHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDRVHVFRUHVGHFRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD VXJHUHP UHVSRVWD j VHOHomR VHPHOKDQWH j REWLGD SDUD JDQKRV HP SHVR XPD YH] TXH DV HVWLPDWLYDV SDUD RV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV VmR GH PpGLD PDJQLWXGHUHVXOWDGRVVHPHOKDQWHVDRVUHODWDGRVSDUDJDQKRVHPSHVR3216HWDO 5262H)5,(6(/(5HWDO&$5'262HWDO'$/)$55$HW DO)$5,$HWDO',%,$6,HWDO

&RUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDV

&RUUHODomR SRGH VHU GHILQLGD FRPR D PHGLGD GD FRUUHVSRQGrQFLD HQWUH GXDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVYDULDQGRGH³´D³´HVHQGRSRVVtYHLVTXDLVTXHUYDORUHVGHQWURGHVVH LQWHUYDORGHIRUPDTXHVXDLQWHQVLGDGHDXPHQWDjPHGLGDTXHRVYDORUHVVHDSUR[LPDP GH³´RX³´3RUFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDHQWHQGHVHDSUREDELOLGDGHTXHRPHVPRRXRV PHVPRVJHQHVWHPGHDIHWDUGRLVRXPDLVFDUDFWHUHV/$6/(<

([LVWH XPD JUDQGH QHFHVVLGDGH GH VH FRQKHFHU DV UHODo}HV HQWUH DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LPSRUWkQFLD HFRQ{PLFD SDUD TXH RV FXVWRV GH VHOHomR VHMDP PLQLPL]DGRVHSDUDTXHDVHOHomRGHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHGLItFLOPHQVXUDomRRXH[SUHVVR HPDSHQDVXPGRVVH[RVVHMDIDFLOLWDGD

&RUUHODo}HVIDYRUiYHLVHQWUHHVFRUHVYLVXDLVHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHFUHVFLPHQWRMi IRUDPHQFRQWUDGDVHPYiULRVHVWXGRV&$5'262HWDO&$5'262HWDO -25*(-Ò1,25HWDO.285<),/+2HWDO.285<),/+2HWDO )$5,$HWDOE',%,$6,HWDO%$552=2HWDO7DPEpPVmRFRPXQV HVWXGRVTXHWUDWHPGDFRUUHODomRHQWUHWHPSHUDPHQWRHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHFUHVFLPHQWR 78//2+)25'<&(HWDO%8552: ',//21926,1(7HWDO E *$8/< HW DO ),*8(,5('2 HW DO 6,/9(,5$ HW DO %(+5(1'6HWDO

(23)

ϭϭ

VREUHRSRWHQFLDOSURGXWLYRGHUHEDQKRVLQFOXVLYHVREUHDVSHFWRVGHPDQHMREHPHVWDU HVHJXUDQoDGRVIXQFLRQiULRVHGRVSUySULRVDQLPDLV

&RQKHFHU DV FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HQWUH DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV PRUIROyJLFDV DYDOLDGDV SRU HVFRUHV YLVXDLV H WHPSHUDPHQWR p XP DVSHFWR FUXFLDO SDUD VH GHILQLU QRYRVFULWpULRVGHVHOHomRXPDYH]TXHDVDWXDLVGHPDQGDVGRPHUFDGRWrPOHYDGRD PXGDQoDVQRVFULWpULRVGHVHOHomRMiDGRWDGRV

$VVLP HVWXGRV TXH WUDWHP GDV UHODo}HV HQWUH WHPSHUDPHQWR H HVFRUHV YLVXDLV VmRLPSRUWDQWHVSRUTXHXPDYH]TXHRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVVmRPHGLGDVIDFLOPHQWHREWLGDV H FDGD YH] PDLV XWLOL]DGDV HP SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR D VHOHomR SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWRSRGHULDVHUUHDOL]DGDLQGLUHWDPHQWHDWUDYpVGDVHOHomRSDUDRVHVFRUHV YLVXDLV VH DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD GHVFULWDV IRUHP IDYRUiYHLV H DV HVWLPDWLYDVGHUHVSRVWDFRUUHODFLRQDGDVDWLVIDWyULDV

2EMHWLYRV*HUDLV

(VWH HVWXGR WHYH FRPR REMHWLYR HVWLPDU DV FRUUHODo}HV IHQRWtSLFDV H JHQpWLFDV HQWUH R WHPSHUDPHQWR DYDOLDGR DWUDYpV GD YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD H HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR H RV HVFRUHV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD HVWLPDQGR DGLFLRQDOPHQWHDKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH SRUPHLRGDHVWDWtVWLFDED\HVLDQD

(24)

ϭϮ

5()(5Ç1&,$6

$*8,/$5 1 3$5$1+26 '$ &267$ 0 - 5 %$/%8(1$ 2 )(55$8'2 $ 6 (YDOXDQGR /D UHDFWLYLGDG GH ERYLQRV SDUD FDUQH \ VX LQIOXHQFLD VREUH DOJXQRV FDUDFWHUHV SURGXFWLYRV ,Q &21*5(62 /$7,12$0(5,&$12 '( (72/2*Ë$ $3/,&$'$ ž 0RQWHYLGHR,QWHUQDWLRQDO6RFLHW\IRU$SSOLHG(WKRORJ\$QDLV

$18$/3(& DQXiULR GD SHFXiULD EUDVLOHLUD 6mR 3DXOR )13 &2168/725,$ ( &20e5&,2

%$5%26$ 6,/9(,5$ , ' ),6+(5 9 :,(*$1' 0 0 7HPSHUDPHQWR HP ERYLQRV GH FRUWHPpWRGRVGHPHGLGDHPGLIHUHQWHVVLVWHPDVSURGXWLYRV$UFKLYRVGH=RRWHFQLD&yUGRED YQS

%$552=2 ' 7+2/21 3 ',$= , ' 3 6 %8=$16.$6 0 ( 48(,52= 6 $ (VWLPDWLYDV GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV SDUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV WHPSHUDPHQWR H SUHFRFLGDGH VH[XDOGHPDFKRVHGHIrPHDVHPXPUHEDQKRGDUDoD1HORUH,Q6,03Ï6,2%5$6,/(,52 '(0(/+25$0(172$1,0$/ž6mR&DUORV$QDLV

%$552=2 ' %8=$16.$6 0 ( 7+2/21 3 081$5, ' 3 48(,52= 6 $ 3DUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUDFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHPXVFXODWXUDWHPSHUDPHQWRHLGDGHDR SULPHLURSDUWRHPDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUH,Q6,03Ï6,2%5$6,/(,52'(0(/+25$0(172 $1,0$/ž0DULQJi$QDLV

%$57/(77$&*HQHWLFFKDQJHVGXULQJLQVHFWGRPHVWLFDWLRQDGYDQFHVDQGFKDOOHQJHV LQLQVHFWUHDULQJ1HZ2UOHDQV$JULFXOWXUDO5HVHDUFK6HUYLFH'HSDUWPHQWRI$JULFXOWXUH S

(25)

ϭϯ

%(+5(1'6600,//(55.52848(77(-5)05$1'(/5':$55,*721 %*)25%(67'$:(/6+7+/,33.(+%(+5(1'6-0&$567(16*( +2//2:$< - : 5HODWLRQVKLS RI WHPSHUDPHQW JURZWK FDUFDVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG WHQGHUQHVVLQEHHIVWHHUV0HDW6FLHQFH%DUNLQJYS

%2,66<$)HDUDQGIHDUIXOQHVVLQDQLPDOV7KH4XDUWHUO\5HYLHZRI%LRORJ\1HZ<RUNY S

%2,66<$%28,66280)$VVHVVPHQWRILQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQEHKDYLRXVIHDUHOLFLWLQJ VLWXDWLRQV$SSOLHG$QLPDO%HKDYLRXU6FLHQFH$PVWHUGDPYS

%528ý(.-8+5,1ý$ġ0â2&+0.,â$&3*HQHWLFVRIEHKDY,RXULQFDWWOH6ORYDN -RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH/XåLDQN\5HS~EOLFD(VORYDFDYQS±

%8552: + 0 6(,)(57 * : &25%(7 1 - $ QHZ WHFKQLTXH IRU PHDVXULQJ WHPSHUDPHQW LQ FDWWOH3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH $XVWUDOLDQ 6RFLHW\ RI $QLPDO 3URGXFWLRQ

$UPLGDOHYS

%8552:+0',//215'7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWHPSHUDPHQWDQGOLYHZHLJKWVDQG FRPPHUFLDOFDUFDVVWUDLWVRI%RVLQGLFXVFURVVEUHHGV4XHHQVODQG$JULFXOWXUH%ULVEDQHS

%8552:+0&25%(71-*HQHWLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJVHTXHQFLDORI ]HEX DQG ]HEXGHULYHG EHHI FDWWOH JUD]HG DW SDVWXUH LQ WKH WURSLFV$XVWUDOLDQ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO$JULFXOWXUH0HOERXUQHYS

(26)

ϭϰ

&$5'262)&&$5'(//,125$&$0326/73DUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUDHVFRUHV GHDYDOLDomRYLVXDOjGHVPDPDHPERYLQRVGDUDoD6DQWD*HVWUXGHV,Q5(81,­2$18$/ '$62&,('$'(%5$6,/(,5$'(=227(&1,$%RWXFDWX$QDLV

&$5'262 ) ) &$5'(//,12 5 $&$0326 / 7(IHLWR GD pSRFD GH QDVFLPHQWR QR FUHVFLPHQWR GH EH]HUURV $EHUGHHQ $QJXV FULDGRV QR 5LR *UDQGH GR 6XO ,Q 5(81,­2 '$ 62&,('$'(%5$6,/(,5$'(=227(&1,$3RUWR$OHJUH$QDLV

&$5'262 ) ) &$5'(//,12 5 $ &$0326 / 7 &RPSRQHQWHV GH FRYDULkQFLD H SDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUDFDUDFWHUHVSURGXWLYRVjGHVPDPDGHEH]HUURV$QJXVFULDGRVQR HVWDGRGR5LR*UDQGHGR6XO5HYLVWDGD6RFLHGDGH%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD%UDVtOLDY S

&$51(,525/548(,52=6$)5,(6/$(VWLPDWLYDGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVGH HVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHGHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHFUHVFLPHQWRHGHFDUFDoDHPDQLPDLVGDUDoD 1HORUH ,Q 5(81,­2 $18$/ '$ 62&,('$'( %5$6,/(,5$ '( =227(&1,$  -DERWLFDEDO$QDLV

&267$ * = 48(,52= 6 $ 2/,9(,5$ - $ )5,(6 / $ (VWLPDWLYDV GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV H IHQRWtSLFRV GH HVFRUHV YLVXDLV H GH JDQKR PpGLR GH SHVR GR QDVFLPHQWR D GHVPDPD GH ERYLQRV IRUPDGRUHV GD UDoD %UDQJXV$56 9HWHULQiULD -DERWLFDEDO Y

S

'$/)$55$5$5262906&+(1.(/)6(IHLWRVGH$PELHQWHHGH+HWHURVHVREUH R*DQKRGH3HVRGR1DVFLPHQWRDR'HVPDPHHVREUHRV(VFRUHV9LVXDLVDR'HVPDPHGH %RYLQRV GH &RUWH 5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 9LoRVD Y S VXSOHPHQWR

(27)

ϭϱ

',%,$6, 1 ) 7+2/21 3 %$552=2 ' )5,(6 / $ 48(,52= 6 $ 3URSRVWD GH 0HWRGRORJLDSDUDDFRQYHUVmRGRHVFRUHGHDYDOLDomRYLVXDOGHFRQIRUPDomRHPHVFRUHGH HVWUXWXUDHPERYLQRVGHFRUWH$569HWHULQiULD-DERWLFDEDOYS

(/(5-3)(55$=-%66,/9$353DUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUDSHVRDYDOLDomRYLVXDO HFLUFXQIHUrQFLDHVFURWDOQDUDoD1HORUHHVWLPDGRVSRUPRGHORDQLPDO$UTXLYR%UDVLOHLURGH 0HGLFLQD9HWHULQiULDH=RRWHFQLD%HOR+RUL]RQWHYS

)$/&21(5'6,QWURGXomRjJHQpWLFDTXDQWLWDWLYD7UDGXomRGH0$6LOYDH-&6LOYD 9LoRVD,PSUHQVDXQLYHUVLWiULD8)9S

)$5,$&80$*1$%26&2&892==,3$/Ð%25%,PSDFWRGRVDFDVDODPHQWRV JHQpWLFRV RWLPL]DGRV QD SURGXWLYLGDGH GRV UHEDQKRV ERYLQRV GH FRUWH 3ULQFtSLRV H 5HVXOWDGRV GH 3HVTXLVDV &LHQWtILFDV GR 3URJUDPD 1HORUH %UDVLO 5LEHLUmR 3UHWR $VVRFLDomR1DFLRQDOGH&ULDGRUHVH3HVTXLVDGRUHVD

)$5,$&80$*1$%26&2&8$/%848(548(/*/265(<(6$%(=(55$/ $ ) /Ð%2 5 % (VWLPDWLYDV GH FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HQWUH HVFRUHV YLVXDLV H FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FUHVFLPHQWR HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD QHORUH XWLOL]DQGR PRGHORV ED\HVLDQRV OLQHDUOLPLDU&LrQFLD$QLPDO%UDVLOHLUD*RLkQLDYSE

)$5,$&80$*1$%26&2&8$/%848(548(/*%(=(55$/$)/Ð%25 % $YDOLDomR JHQpWLFD GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH GD GHVPDPD DWp D PDWXULGDGH5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 9LoRVD Y S

)(// / 5 &2/',7= , * :$/.(5 . + :$7621 ' / $VVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ WHPSHUDPHQW SHUIRUPDQFH DQG LPPXQH IXQFWLRQ LQ FDWWOH HQWHULQJ D FRPPHUFLDO IHHGORW

(28)

ϭϲ

),*8(,5('2/**(/(5-30285­2*%)(55$=-%6%(/,(,52-&& 0$726(&*HQHWLFDQDO\VHVRIWHPSHUDPHQWLQDSRSXODWLRQRIWKH1HORUHEUHHG/LYHVWRFN 5HVHDUFKIRU5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW&RO{PELDYQ

)25'<&(**2''$5'0((6(,)(57*:7KHPHDVXUHPHQWRIWHPSHUDPHQWLQ FDWWOHDQGWKHHIIHFWRIH[SHULHQFHDQGJHQRW\SH$QLPDO3URGXFWLRQLQ$XVWUDOLD%OHWFKOH\

YS

)25'<&(**2''$5'0(7</(55:,//,$06*72/(0$10$7HPSHUDPHQW DQG EUXLVLQJ RI %RV LQGLFXV FURVV FDWWOH$XVWUDOLDQ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO $JULFXOWXUH 0HOERXUQHYS

)25'<&(*'2'750:+<7(6-5&DWWOHWHPSHUDPHQWVLQH[WHQVLYHEHHIKHUGVLQ QRUWKHQ 4XHHQVODQG )DFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ WHPSHUDPHQW$XVWUDOLDQ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO $JULFXOWXUH0HOERXUQHYS

)25'<&(*+2:,77&-+2/52<'5*2¶5285.(3.(17:,67/(.:7KH SHUIRUPDQFH RI %UDKPDQ6KRUWKRUQ DQG 6DKLZDO 6KRUWKRUQ EHHI FDWWOH LQ WH GU\ WURSLFV RI QRUWKHUQ4XHHQVODQG6FURWDOFLUFXPIHUHQFHWHPSHUDPHQWHFWRSDUDVLWHUHVLVWDQFHDQGWKH JHQHWLFV RI JURZWK DQG WKH RWKHU WUDLWV LQ EXOOV $XVWUDOLDQ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO $JULFXOWXUH0HOERXUQHYS

)5$1.+$0 5 /2(%(/ ' $ 0RGHOLQJ SUREOHPV LQ FRQVHUYDWLRQ JHQHWLFV XVLQJ FDSWLYH 'URVRSKLOD SRSXODWLRQV UDSLG JHQHWLF DGDSWLRQ WR FDSWLYLW\=RR %LRORJ\&KLFDJRY S

(29)

ϭϳ

*$8/< 0 0$7+,$. + +2))0$11 . .5$86 0 (5+$5'7 * (VWLPDWLQJ JHQHWLF YDULDELOLW\ LQ WHPSHUDPHQW WUDLWV LQ *HUPDQ $QJXV DQG 6LPPHQWDO FDWWH$SSOLHG $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU6FLHQFH$PVWHUGDPYS

*5$1',1 7 %HKDYLRUDO DJLWDWLRQ GXULQJ KDQGOLQJ LQ FDWWOH LV SHUVLVWHQW RYHU WLPH$SSOLHG $QLPDO%HKDYLRXU6FLHQFH$PVWHUGDPYS

*5$1',17'((6,1*0-67587+(56--$1'6:,1.(5$0&DWWOHZLWKKDLU ZKRUO SDWWHUQV DERYH WKH H\HV DUH PRUH EHKDYLRXUDOO\ DJLWDWHG GXULQJ UHVWUDLQW$SSOLHG $QLPDO%HKDYLRXU6FLHQFH$PVWHUGDPYS

*5$1',1 7 '((6,1* ' %HKDYLRUDO JHQHWLFV DQG DQLPDO VFLHQFHV ,Q*HQHWLFV DQG EHKDYLRXUDO RI GRPHVWLF DQLPDOVE\ 7HPSOH *UDQGLQ DQG 0DUN 'HHVLQJ 6DQ 'LHJR $FDGHPLF 'LVSRQtYHO HP KWWSZZZJUDQGLQFRPUHIHUHQFHVJHQHWLFVKWPO! $FHVVR HPGH]

*5$1',17+XPDQHOLYHVWRFNKDQGOLQJE\7HPSOH*UDQGLQDQG0DUN'HHVLQJ1RUWK $GDPV6WRUH\3XEOLVKLQJ

+(06:257+3+&2/(0$1*-%$51(77-/%25*65HODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ KXPDQDQLPDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DQG SURGXFWLYLW\ RI FRPPHUFLDO GDLU\ FRZV-RXUQDORI $QLPDO 6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQYS

-25*(-Ò1,25-3,7$)9&)5,(6/$$/%848(548(/*,QIOXrQFLDGHDOJXQV IDWRUHV GH DPELHQWH VREUH RV HVFRUHV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD j GHVPDPDHPXPUHEDQKRGDUDoD1HORUH5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD9LoRVDYQ S

(30)

ϭϴ

-25*(-Ò1,25-$/%848(548(/*',$6/7(VWLPDWLYDVGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRV SDUD RV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD QR SHUtRGR SUp GHVPDPDHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH,Q5(81,­2$18$/'$62&,('$'(%5$6,/(,5$ '(=227(&1,$&DPSR*UDQGH$QDLV

-26$+.,$1/$1Ro}HVGHH[WHULRUDSOLFDGRVDRV]HEXtQRVFXUVRGHMXOJDPHQWRGDV UDoDV]HEXtQDVFXUVRGHMXOJDPHQWRGDVUDoDV]HEXtQDV$%&=*RLkQLDS

.285< ),/+2 : $/%848(548( / *6,/9$ 9$6&21&(/26- $$/(1&$5 0 0)251,63(5(,5$0&(VWLPDWLYDVGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVSDUDHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGH FRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUDHVXDVUHODo}HVFRPSHVRjGHVPDPDHPERYLQRV GDUDoD1HORUH,Q5(81,­2$18$/'$62&,('$'(%5$6,/(,5$'(=227(&1,$ *RLkQLD$QDLV

.285< ),/+2 : $/%848(548( / *$/(1&$5 0 0)251, 6 &+,48,7(//, 1(720*HQHWLFSDUDPHWHUHVWLPDWHVRIYLVXDOVFRUHWUDLWVDQGWKHLUUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKJURZWK WUDLWV LQ %UD]LOLDQ 1HORUH FDWWOH ,Q :25/' &21*5(66 21 *(1(7,&6 $33/,(' 72 /,9(672&.352'8&7,21ž%HOR+RUL]RQWH3URFHGLQJV

.285<),/+2:$/%848(548(/*)251,66,/9$-$,,9<2.220-$/(1&$5 0 0 (VWLPDWLYDV GH SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV SDUD RV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV H VXDV DVVRFLDo}HV FRP SHVR FRUSRUDO HP ERYLQRV GH FRUWH5HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUD GH =RRWHFQLD 9LoRVDYS

/$6/(< -+21 )*HQpWLFD GR PHOKRUDPHQWR DQLPDO 7UDGXomR GH - $QWXQHV &RUUHLD /LVERD)XQGDomR&DORXVWH*XOEHQNLDQS

(31)

ϭϵ

/(1(,1'5(375,//$7*6$3$-0e1,66,(5(%211(7-1&+83,1-0 ,QGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQGRFLOLW\LQ/LPRXVLQFDWWOH-RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQY S

/21* 5$(O VLVWHPD GH HYDOXDFLyQ GH $QNRQ\ \ VX DSOLFDFLyQ HQ OD PHMRUD GHO JDQDGD&RORUDGR$QNRQ\&RUSRUDWLRQS

0(5&$'$17( 0 ( = 5$=22. $ * &<5,//2 - 1 6 * ),*8(,5('2 / $

3URJUDPDGH6HOHomRGD(VWDomR([SHULPHQWDOGH=RRWHFQLDGH6HUWmR]LQKRUHVXOWDGRV GHSHVTXLVDVHVXPiULRGHWRXURV1HORUH1RYD2GHVVD,QVWLWXWRGH=RRWHFQLD

0h//(55921.(<6(5/,1*.0$*&RQVLVWHQF\RIIOLJKWVSHHGDQGLWVFRUUHODWLRQWR SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG WR SHUVRQDOLW\ LQ %RV WDXUXV FDWWOH$SSOLHG $QLPDO %HKDYLRXU 6FLHQFH $PVWHUGDPYS

0853+(< 500285$')$7255(630&$SURDFKDELOLW\RIERYLQHFDWWOHLQ SDVWXUHV EUHHG FRPSDULVRQV DQG D EUHHG[WUHDWPHQW DQDO\VLV%HKDYLRXU *HQHWLFV 1HZ <RUNYS

1,&+2/6210-%877(5:257+0+$JXLGHWRFRQGLWLRQVFRULQJRI=HEX&DWWOH

(WKLRSLD$GGLV$EDEDS

3$5$1+26 '$ &267$ 0 - 5 $PELrQFLD QD SURGXomR GH ERYLQRV GH FRUWHD SDVWR ,Q (1&21752$18$/'((72/2*,$ž)ORULDQySROLV$QDLV

3$5$1+26'$&267$0-5&267$(6,/9$(9&+,48,7(//,1(720(526$ 0 6 &RQWULEXLomR GRV HVWXGRV GH FRPSRUWDPHQWR GH ERYLQRV SDUD LPSOHPHQWDomR GH SURJUDPDVGHTXDOLGDGHGHFDUQH,Q(1&21752$18$/'((72/2*,$ž1DWDO

(32)

ϮϬ

3(7+(5,&.-&+2/52<'5*'22*$19-9(186%.3URGXFWLYLW\FDUFDVV DQG PHDW TXDOLW\ RI ORW IHG %RV LQGLFXV FURVV VWHHUV JURXSHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WHPSHUDPHQW$XVWUDOLDQ-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO$JULFXOWXUH0HOERXUQHYS

32166%0,/$*5(6-&7(,;(,5$10(IHLWRVGHIDWRUHVJHQpWLFRVHGHDPELHQWH VREUHRFUHVFLPHQWRHHVFRUHGHFRQIRUPDomRHPERYLQRVGDUDoD+HUHIRUGQR565HYLVWD %UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD9LoRVDYS

35,&((2%HKDYLRXUDVSHFWVRIDQLPDOGRPHVWLFDWLRQ7KH4XDUWHUO\5HYLHZRI%LRORJ\ &KLFDJRYS

35,&((2$QLPDOGRPHVWLFDWLRQDQGEHKDYLRXU1HZ<RUN&$%,3XEOLVKLQJ

5262 9 0 )5,(6 / $ &RPSRQHQWHV SULQFLSDLV HP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 3ROOHG +HUHIRUG j GHVPDPDHVREUHDQR5HYLVWD%UDVLOHLUDGH=RRWHFQLD9LoRVDYS

6,/9(,5$,'%),6&+(590(1'21d$*&RPSRUWDPHQWRGHERYLQRVGHFRUWHHP SLVWDGHUHPDWH&LrQFLD5XUDO6DQWD0DULDYQS

6,/9$-$90$7681$*$0(3(5(,5$(/(5-67(50$1)(55$=-%$QiOLVLV JHQpWLFRGHODGLVWDQFLDGHIXJDRVUHEDxRGHUD]D1HORUH%RVWDXUXVLQGLFXV,QIRUPDFLyQ 7pFQLFD(FRQyPLFD$JUDULD=DUDJR]DYS

78//2+10%HKDYLRXURIFDWWOHLQ\DUGV,,$VWXG\RIWHPSHUDPHQW$QLPDO%HKDYLRXU /RQGUHVYS

(33)

Ϯϭ

92,6,1(7%'*5$1',177$780-'2¶&211256)67587+(56--)HHGORW FDWWOH ZLWK FDOP WHPSHUDPHQWV KDYH KLJKHU DYHUDJH GDLO\ JDLQV WKDQ FDWWOH ZLWK H[FLWDEOH WHPSHUDPHQWV-RXUQDORI$QLPDO6FLHQFH&KDPSDLJQYSE

(34)

ϮϮ

&$3Ë78/2 ± (67,0$7,9$6 '( 3$5Æ0(7526 *(1e7,&26 3$5$ &$5$&7(5Ë67,&$6'(7(03(5$0(172('((6&25(69,68$,6(0%29,126 '$5$d$1(/25(

5(6802±(VWHHVWXGRWHYHFRPRREMHWLYRDYDOLDUDVUHODo}HVHQWUHRWHPSHUDPHQWRH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHHVFRUHVYLVXDLV8WLOL]RXVHDHVWDWtVWLFDED\HVLDQDFRPDQiOLVHVWUL FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVVREPRGHORDQLPDOOLQHDUOLPLDUQDREWHQomRGRVSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVH HVWLPDomRGHFRHILFLHQWHVGHFRUUHODomRJHQpWLFDVHQGRRVHJXLQWHPRGHORXWLOL]DGR\ ;β =D =P =F H )RUDP DYDOLDGDV DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV FRQIRUPDomR &6

SUHFRFLGDGH 36 PXVFXODWXUD 06 HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR (7 H YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD96DYDOLDGDVDRVREUHDQRDOpPGRSHVRDRGHVPDPH3'FRPRFDUDFWHUtVWLFD ³kQFRUD´ 3DUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV &6 36 H 06 RV PDLRUHV HVFRUHV LQGLFDUDP DV PHOKRUHV H[SUHVV}HV GDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV 3DUD R (7 RV PDLRUHV HVFRUHV LQGLFDUDP DQLPDLVGHSLRUWHPSHUDPHQWRHSDUD96RVPDLRUHVYDORUHVLQGLFDUDPRVDQLPDLVGH PHOKRUWHPSHUDPHQWR)RUDPXWLOL]DGRVGDGRVGHDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUHFRP DQLPDLV QD PDWUL] GH SDUHQWHVFR QDVFLGRV HQWUH H SHUWHQFHQWHV j $JURSHFXiULD-DFDUH]LQKR/WGD$VKHUGDELOLGDGHVHVWLPDGDVSDUD(796&636H06 IRUDP±±±±H±UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH

$V FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV HQWUH WHPSHUDPHQWR H HVFRUHV YLVXDLV IRUDP IDYRUiYHLV HQWUHWDQWREDL[DV(7[&6 ±(7[36 ±H(7[06 ±

96[&6 ±96[36 ±H96[06 ±1mR

UHFRPHQGDVH D VHOHomR LQGLUHWD SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWR DWUDYpV GD VHOHomR SDUD RV HVFRUHVYLVXDLVGH&636RX06$LQFOXVmRGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7RX96H&636H 06VLPXOWDQHDPHQWHQRVtQGLFHVGHVHOHomRSRGHVHUUHDOL]DGDFRPDH[SHFWDWLYDGH PXGDQoDVDORQJRSUD]R

(35)

Ϯϯ

,QWURGXomR

1RV~OWLPRVDQRVDERYLQRFXOWXUDGHFRUWHQR%UDVLOYHPSDVVDQGRSRULQWHQVDV PRGLILFDo}HV HP WRGD D FDGHLD SURGXWLYD $/(1&$5 %$5%26$ VHQGR R PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR SULQFLSDOPHQWH DWUDYpV GD VHOHomR XP GRV IDWRUHV TXH FRQWULEXHPSDUDDVVLJQLILFDWLYDVPHOKRUDVREWLGDVSHORVHWRU

'HYLGR jV FUHVFHQWHV H[LJrQFLDV GR PHUFDGR FRQVXPLGRU VREUHWXGR TXDQWR j TXDOLGDGHHEHPHVWDUDQLPDOWHPVLGRLQFOXtGRHPDOJXQVSURJUDPDVGHPHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFRGHJDGRGHFRUWHFRPRFULWpULRGHVHOHomRFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVTXHSRVVDPDX[LOLDU QDREWHQomRGHDQLPDLVPDLVDGDSWDGRVDRVVLVWHPDVGHFULDomRWDQWRHPUHODomRDR SRWHQFLDO SURGXWLYR TXDQWR DR FRPSRUWDPHQWR $VVLP HVWXGRV GH DYDOLDomR GDV UHODo}HVHQWUHDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVFRQVLGHUDGDVQDVHOHomRWrPVLGRGHVHQYROYLGRVGH IRUPDTXHRSURFHVVRVHMDIDFLOLWDGRPLQLPL]DQGRFXVWRVHGLILFXOGDGHVQDREWHQomRGDV PHGLGDV

'HQWUHDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVFRPSRUWDPHQWDLVRWHPSHUDPHQWRHVWiFRUUHODFLRQDGR FRPFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHGHVHPSHQKRHTXDOLGDGHGHFDUFDoDDOpPGHDSUHVHQWDUUHODomR FRP R EHPHVWDU H VHJXUDQoD GRV DQLPDLV H IXQFLRQiULRV LQIOXHQFLDQGR R SRWHQFLDO SURGXWLYRGRVDQLPDLV&$51(,52HWDO-iHPUHODomRjVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHWLSR PRUIROyJLFR p FDGD YH] PDLV HYLGHQWH TXH DV DYDOLDo}HV YLVXDLV VmR LPSRUWDQWHV IHUUDPHQWDV D VHUHP XVDGDV QD VHOHomR LGHQWLILFDQGR DQLPDLV FRP WLSR PRUIROyJLFR PDLVGHVHMDGR.285<),/+2HWDOVHQGRDPSODPHQWHXWLOL]DGDHPSURJUDPDV GHDYDOLDomRJHQpWLFDGHERYLQRVGHFRUWHHVSHFLDOPHQWHHPUHEDQKRVGDUDoD1HORUH 3,5(6HWDO

1R %UDVLO D VHOHomR WHP VLGR GLUHFLRQDGD SDUD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH LQWHUHVVH HFRQ{PLFREXVFDQGRDWHQGHUDVH[LJrQFLDVGRVVLVWHPDVGHSURGXomRHGRPHUFDGR FRQVXPLGRU VHQGR LQFOXtGDV QRV SURJUDPDV GH PHOKRUDPHQWR JHQpWLFR FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV OLJDGDVDWLSRPRUIROyJLFRHPDLVUHFHQWHPHQWHWHPSHUDPHQWR

(36)

Ϯϰ

FDUDFWHUtVWLFD PDLV IDFLOPHQWH PHQVXUDGD H TXH DSUHVHQWH RV PHQRUHV FXVWRV UHODFLRQDGRV j REWHQomR GH PHGLGDV FRP REWHQomR GH UHVSRVWD FRUUHODFLRQDGD GD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDQmRLQFOXtGDHDLQGDTXHDFRUUHODomRQmRVHMDVXILFLHQWHSDUDTXHVHMD SUDWLFDGD D VHOHomR LQGLUHWD SRGHUHPRV FRQKHFHU R FRPSRUWDPHQWR GDV GXDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHSUHYHUDVUHVSRVWDVjVHOHomRTXDQGRDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVVmRLQFOXtGDV VLPXOWDQHDPHQWHQRVtQGLFHVGHVHOHomR

3RUWDQWRRSUHVHQWHHVWXGRWHYHFRPRREMHWLYRDYDOLDUDVUHODo}HVHQWUHPHGLGDV GHWHPSHUDPHQWRHHVFRUHVYLVXDLVDWUDYpVGDHVWLPDomRGRVSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVHP ERYLQRV GD UDoD 1HORUH YLVDQGR D XWLOL]DomR GHVWDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV FRPR FULWpULRV GH VHOHomR

0DWHULDOH0pWRGRV

'HVFULomRGRVGDGRV

1HVWHHVWXGRIRUDPDQDOLVDGRVGDGRVGHDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUHQDVFLGRVHQWUH RVDQRVGHHSHUWHQFHQWHVj$JURSHFXiULD-DFDUH]LQKR/WGD$HPSUHVDp HVSHFLDOL]DGDQDFULDomRGHERYLQRVGHFRUWHSULQFLSDOPHQWHGDUDoD1HORUHYLVDQGRD YHQGD GH UHSURGXWRUHV MRYHQV H DQLPDLV SDUD R DEDWH 2V DQLPDLV IRUDP FULDGRV HP SDVWDJHQVWURSLFDLVHUHFHEHUDPDSHQDVPLVWXUDGHVXSOHPHQWRPLQHUDO

(37)

Ϯϱ

QDVFLGRV DQXDOPHQWH SHUPDQHFHP QR UHEDQKR RX VmR FRPHUFLDOL]DGRV FRPR UHSURGXWRUHV

1RSUHVHQWHHVWXGRIRUDPFRQVLGHUDGDVDVVHJXLQWHVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVFRUHGH WHPSHUDPHQWR (7 YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD 96 HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR &6 SUHFRFLGDGH 36 H PXVFXODWXUD 06 DR VREUHDQR $ FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SHVR D GHVPDPD 3'IRLLQFOXtGDQDVDQiOLVHVWULFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVYLVDQGRUHGX]LURVHIHLWRVGDVHOHomRj GHVPDPDQDYDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDGDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVDYDOLDGDVDRVREUHDQR

$DYDOLDomRGR(7IRLIHLWDDRVREUHDQRGHVGHRDQRGHFRQVLGHUDQGRRV DQLPDLVLQGLYLGXDOPHQWHVHJXLQGRDFODVVLILFDomRHVWDEHOHFLGDSHOD&21(;­2'(/7$ *DWUDYpVGDDWULEXLomRGRVHVFRUHVGHDQmRVHQGRXWLOL]DGRRHVFRUH SDUDHYLWDUDWHQGrQFLDGHDWULEXLomRGHHVFRUHPpGLRjPDLRULDGRVDQLPDLV2VHVFRUHV VmR DWULEXtGRV GH DFRUGR FRP D VHJXLQWH FODVVLILFDomR (VFRUH $QLPDLV H[WUHPDPHQWH GyFHLV TXH VH PRYLPHQWDP YDJDURVDPHQWH VHP H[SUHVVDU VLQDO GH DJUHVVLYLGDGHHTXHSHUPLWHPJUDQGHDSUR[LPDomRGRDYDOLDGRU(VFRUH$QLPDLVTXH VH PRYLPHQWDP FRP YLYDFLGDGH VHP H[SUHVVDU VLQDLV GH DJUHVVLYLGDGH SHUPLWLQGR UHODWLYD DSUR[LPDomR GR DYDOLDGRU(VFRUH $QLPDLV QHUYRVRV TXH VH PRYLPHQWDP UDSLGDPHQWH SURFXUDQGR DOJXP PHLR GH IXJD 1mR SHUPLWHP D DSUR[LPDomR GR DYDOLDGRU (VFRUH $QLPDLV TXH VH PRYLPHQWDP IUHQHWLFDPHQWH VDOWDQGR FRQWUD FHUFDVHREVWiFXORV'HPRQVWUDPQHUYRVLVPRH[WUHPRHDGRWDPLQWHQomRDJUHVVLYDHP UHODomRDRDYDOLDGRU

$FDUDFWHUtVWLFD96IRLDYDOLDGDSHORWHVWHGDYHORFLGDGHGHVDtGDIOLJKWVSHHG DGDSWDGR GH %8552: HW DO 1HVWH WHVWH p PHGLGR R WHPSR HP VHJXQGRV QHFHVViULR SDUD XP DQLPDO SHUFRUUHU XPD GLVWkQFLD GH PHWURV HQWUH GXDV FpOXODV IRWRHOpWULFDVGHSRLVGHGHL[DUDEDODQoDRXRWURQFRGHFRQWHQomRDSyVRPDQHMR2V DQLPDLVPDLVYHOR]HVVmRFRQVLGHUDGRVGHSLRUWHPSHUDPHQWR

(38)

Ϯϲ

YLVXDLV VmR GHVFULWDV QR 680È5,2 $/,$1d$ 1(/25( FRPR &RQIRUPDomR ³LQIOXHQFLDGDSHORWDPDQKRFRUSRUDOSULQFLSDOPHQWHSHORFRPSULPHQWRHSHORJUDXGH PXVFXORVLGDGH GD FDUFDoD GR DQLPDO $R LPDJLQDU D FDUFDoD GR DQLPDO R DYDOLDGRU HVWLPD D TXDQWLGDGH GH FDUQH GHVWD FDUFDoD´ 3UHFRFLGDGH ³FDSDFLGDGH GH R DQLPDO FKHJDUDXPJUDXPtQLPRGHDFDEDPHQWRGHFDUFDoDFRPXPDERDFDPDGDGHJRUGXUD GH FREHUWXUD VHP WHU TXH FKHJDU D XPD LGDGH RX SHVR YLYR HOHYDGR´ 0XVFXODWXUD ³DYDOLDRGHVHQYROYLPHQWRGDPDVVDPXVFXODUFRPRXPWRGRREVHUYDQGRVHORFDLVGH GHVHQYROYLPHQWRGHJUDQGHVPDVVDVPXVFXODUHVFRPRDSDOHWDRORPERDJDUXSDH SULQFLSDOPHQWHRWUDVHLURRQGHHVWmRORFDOL]DGRVRVFRUWHVPDLVQREUHV´

*UXSRVGHFRQWHPSRUkQHRV

2V JUXSRV GH FRQWHPSRUkQHRV *& IRUDP IRUPDGRV SHODV VHJXLQWHV YDULiYHLV VH[R ID]HQGD DR QDVFLPHQWR H DR VREUHDQR JUXSR GH PDQHMR DR QDVFLPHQWR D GHVPDPDHDRVREUHDQRDQRGDGHVPDPDHGDWDGHDYDOLDomRDRVREUHDQR$SHQDV SDUDDFDUDFWHUtVWLFD96IRLFRQVLGHUDGRWDPEpPRORFDOGHDYDOLDomR

1DDQiOLVHGHFRQVLVWrQFLDGRVGDGRVSDUD96H3'IRUDPH[FOXtGRVUHJLVWURV IRUDGRVLQWHUYDORVGDGRVSHODPpGLDGR*&PDLVRXPHQRVWUrVGHVYLRVSDGUmRH*& FRPPHQRVGHFLQFRREVHUYDo}HV3DUDRVHVFRUHV(7&636H06IRUDPH[FOXtGRV *& FRP PHQRV GH FLQFR REVHUYDo}HV GH IRUPD TXH DSyV D FRQVLVWrQFLD QmR IRUDP REVHUYDGRV*&VHPYDULDELOLGDGHRXVHMDDTXHOHVHPTXHWRGRVRVDQLPDLVSRVVXtDP RPHVPRYDORU

(39)

Ϯϳ

7DEHOD'HVFULomRGRDUTXLYRGHGDGRVGDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSHVRDRGHVPDPH3' HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR (7 YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD 96 H HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR&6SUHFRFLGDGH36HPXVFXODWXUD06

&DUDFWHUtVWLFD 1~PHUR

DQLPDLV ,GDGHGLDV 0pGLD

±'3 0RGD 1~PHUR

WRXURV 1~PHURYDFDV 1~PHUR*&

3'NJ ±

(7HVFRUH

96PV ±

&6HVFRUH

36HVFRUH

06HVFRUH

*& JUXSRGHFRQWHPSRUkQHRVSRUFDUDFWHUtVWLFD'3 GHVYLRSDGUmR

1D7DEHODSRGHPRVREVHUYDUTXHKRXYHGLIHUHQoDVQDLGDGHGHDYDOLDomRGRV DQLPDLVSDUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVDYDOLDGDVRTXHpMXVWLILFDGRSHODVGLIHUHQoDVQDVGDWDV GHDYDOLDomRLQLFLDLV$VPHGLGDVGHHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGHFRQIRUPDomR&6SUHFRFLGDGH 36HPXVFXODWXUD06YrPVHQGRWRPDGDVQDSURSULHGDGHGHVGHRDQRGHHDV PHGLGDVGHHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7HYHORFLGDGHGHVDtGD96FRPHoDUDPDVHU WRPDGDVPDLVUHFHQWHPHQWH(7DSDUWLUGRDQRGHH96DSDUWLUGRDQR8PD YH] TXH DQWHULRUPHQWH D DYDOLDomR GH VREUHDQR RFRUULD DRV GLDV H DWXDOPHQWH D PHVPDDYDOLDomRYHPVHQGRUHDOL]DGDDRVGLDVFRPDQLPDLVVHQGRDYDOLDGRVPDLV MRYHQVHUDHVSHUDGRTXHDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVDSUHVHQWDVVHPLGDGHVPpGLDVGHDYDOLDomR OLJHLUDPHQWHGLIHUHQWHVHPERUDWRGDVWHQKDPVLGRWRPDGDVDRVREUHDQR

(40)

Ϯϴ

&RPSRQHQWHVGHFRYDULkQFLDV

2V FRPSRQHQWHV GH FRYDULkQFLDV H SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV IRUDP HVWLPDGRV XWLOL]DQGR LQIHUrQFLD ED\HVLDQD FRQVLGHUDQGR XPPRGHOR DQLPDO QmROLQHDU WKUHVKROG SDUD (7 &6 36 H 06 H XP PRGHOR DQLPDO OLQHDU SDUD 3' H 96 HPSUHJDQGRVH R SURJUDPD FRPSXWDFLRQDO 7+5*,%%6) 0,6=7$/ HP DQiOLVHV WUL FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV2PRGHORXWLOL]DGRSRGHVHUGHVFULWRGDVHJXLQWHIRUPD

\ ;ββββ=D=P=FH

RQGH\ p R YHWRU GH REVHUYDo}HV HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD HVFRUHVYLVXDLVGHFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUDHSHVRjGHVPDPDȕpR YHWRUGRVHIHLWRVVLVWHPiWLFRVDpRYHWRUGRHIHLWRJHQpWLFRDGLWLYRGLUHWRPpRYHWRUGR HIHLWRJHQpWLFRPDWHUQRFpRYHWRUGRHIHLWRGHDPELHQWHSHUPDQHQWHPDWHUQR;pD PDWUL]GHLQFLGrQFLDGRVHIHLWRVVLVWHPiWLFRVDVVRFLDRYHWRUȕDRYHWRU\=pDPDWUL]

GHLQFLGrQFLDGRHIHLWRDOHDWyULRJHQpWLFRDGLWLYRGLUHWRDVVRFLDRYHWRUDDRYHWRU\=

pDPDWUL]GHLQFLGrQFLDGRHIHLWRDOHDWyULRJHQpWLFRPDWHUQRDVVRFLDRYHWRUPDRYHWRU \= p D PDWUL] GH LQFLGrQFLD GR HIHLWR DOHDWyULR GH DPELHQWH SHUPDQHQWH PDWHUQR

DVVRFLD R YHWRUF DR YHWRU \Hp R YHWRU GRV HIHLWRV UHVLGXDLV $VVXPLXVH TXH RV HIHLWRV JHQpWLFRVDGLWLYR GLUHWR JHQpWLFR PDWHUQR H GH DPELHQWH SHUPDQHQWHPDWHUQR QmR HUDP FRUUHODFLRQDGRV FRP R HIHLWR UHVLGXDO 2V HIHLWRV JHQpWLFRV PDWHUQR H GH DPELHQWH SHUPDQHQWH PDWHUQR IRUDP FRQVLGHUDGRV VRPHQWH SDUD 3' $V DQiOLVHV WUL FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVIRUDPUHDOL]DGDVVHPSUHFRPR3'FRPREMHWLYRGHUHGX]LURVHIHLWRVGD VHOHomRVHTXHQFLDO

&RQVLGHUDQGR FDGD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD VHSDUDGDPHQWH IRUDP HVWDEHOHFLGDV DV VHJXLQWHVSUHVVXSRVLo}HV

(41)

Ϯϵ 9DU » » » » ¼ º « « « « ¬ ª H F P D » » » » » ¼ º « « « « « ¬ ª H 1 F 1P P D , , $ $ σ σ σ σ HPTXH D σ pDYDULkQFLDJHQpWLFDDGLWLYDGLUHWD P

σ pDYDULkQFLDJHQpWLFDPDWHUQDσDP pDFRYDULkQFLDHQWUHRVHIHLWRVJHQpWLFRDGLWLYRGLUHWRHPDWHUQR

F

σ pDYDULkQFLDGH DPELHQWH SHUPDQHQWH PDWHUQR $p D PDWUL] GH QXPHUDGRUHV GRV FRHILFLHQWHV GH SDUHQWHVFR GH :ULJKW HQWUH RV LQGLYtGXRV

H

σ p D YDULkQFLD UHVLGXDO, p D PDWUL] LGHQWLGDGH1PpRQ~PHURGHPmHVGHDQLPDLVFRPUHJLVWURV1pRQ~PHURGHDQLPDLV FRPUHJLVWURV

2VYHWRUHVȕDPHFVmRSDUkPHWURVGHORFDomRGDGLVWULEXLomRFRQGLFLRQDO\_ ȕDPF)RLDVVXPLGDXPDGLVWULEXLomRXQLIRUPHDSULRULSDUDRVHIHLWRVVLVWHPiWLFRVH SDUD RV FRPSRQHQWHV GH FRYDULkQFLDV GRV HIHLWRV DOHDWyULRV IRUDP GHILQLGDV FRPR GLVWULEXLo}HVDSULRULGLVWULEXLo}HV:LVKDUWLQYHUWLGD$VVLPDGLVWULEXLomRGH\SDUDDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHGLVWULEXLomRFRQWtQXD96H3'GDGRVRV SDUkPHWURVGHORFDomRH HVFDODIRLFRQVLGHUDGDFRPR

\_ȕDPF5a1>=D=P:F,15@

3DUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVWXGDGDVIRUDPFRQVLGHUDGRVFRPRHIHLWRVVLVWHPiWLFRV R *& RV HIHLWRV OLQHDU H TXDGUiWLFR GD LGDGH GR DQLPDO QD PHQVXUDomR H RV HIHLWRV OLQHDU H TXDGUiWLFR GD LGDGH GD PmH DR SDUWR HP GLDV )RUDP FRQVLGHUDGRV FRPR FRYDULiYHLVRVHIHLWRVDOHDWyULRVJHQpWLFRDGLWLYRGLUHWRHUHVLGXDO3DUDR3'DOpPGRV HIHLWRV Mi FLWDGRV IRUDP FRQVLGHUDGRV RV HIHLWRV DOHDWyULRV PDWHUQRV JHQpWLFR H GH DPELHQWHSHUPDQHQWH

(42)

ϯϬ

0RGHOR7KUHVKROG

$V FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV FDWHJyULFDV VmR GHWHUPLQDGDV SRU YDULiYHLV FRQWtQXDV QmR REVHUYiYHLVHPHVFDODVXEMDFHQWHHPTXHVmRIL[DGRVYDORUHVLQLFLDLVGHOLPLDUHVWDLV TXHWW.WMFRPW ’HWM ’HPTXHMpRQ~PHURGHFDWHJRULDV2VGDGRV

REVHUYiYHLVVmRGHSHQGHQWHVGDYDULiYHOVXEMDFHQWHTXHpOLPLWDGDHQWUHGRLVOLPLDUHV QmR REVHUYiYHLV *,$12/$ )28//(< $VVLP QR PRGHOR GH OLPLDU FRQVLGHUDGR QR SUHVHQWH HVWXGR SDUD D REVHUYDomR M D SUREDELOLGDGH FRQGLFLRQDO GH TXH\L(7&636H06SDUDFDGDDQLPDOLHVWHMDQDFDWHJRULDMFRPM DSDUD

(7HM DSDUD&636H06pGDGDSRU

3U\L M_8L 3UWM8LWM

RQGHWMVmRRVOLPLDUHVTXHGHILQHPDVTXDWURFDWHJRULDVGHUHVSRVWDSDUD(7HFLQFR

FDWHJRULDV GH UHVSRVWD SDUD &6 36 H 06 3DUD LGHQWLILFDELOLGDGH GRV SDUkPHWURV RV YDORUHVGHWHWIRUDPIL[DGRVHPHUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH9$17$66(/HWDO 1RSUHVHQWHHVWXGRRPRGHOROLQHDUWKUHVKROGSRGHVHUUHSUHVHQWDGRFRPR ¸ ¸ ¸ ¹ · ¨ ¨ ¨ © § ⊗ + + + + + ¸ ¸ ¸ ¹ · ¨ ¨ ¨ © § 5 , D = ; D = ; F = P = D = ; 1 \ \ \ a β β β

RQGH\UHSUHVHQWD R 3'\ UHSUHVHQWD D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD (7 RX 96\ UHSUHVHQWD RV

(43)

ϯϭ

&ULWpULRVGHFRQYHUJrQFLD

)RUDPJHUDGDVFDGHLDVLQGHSHQGHQWHVGHGHFLFORVVHQGRGHVFDUWDGRVRV SULPHLURV FLFORV FRPR SHUtRGR GH GHVFDUWH DPRVWUDO SDUD DQiOLVHV GDV GLVWULEXLo}HVD SRVWHULRUL GDV YDULkQFLDV KHUGDELOLGDGHV H FRUUHODo}HV $V DPRVWUDV IRUDP DUPD]HQDGDV D FDGD FLFORV 2 SHUtRGR GH GHVFDUWH H R LQWHUYDOR GH DPRVWUDJHPIRUDPHVWDEHOHFLGRVHPSLULFDPHQWH$VFDGHLDVJHUDGDVIRUDPDQDOLVDGDV XWLOL]DQGRRVRIZDUH*LEDQDO9$1.$$0YLVDQGRGHWHUPLQDUDFRQYHUJrQFLDGDV HQWUH DV DPRVWUDV 2V UHVXOWDGRV GH YDULkQFLDV D SRVWHULRUL GDV DQiOLVHV WUL FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV IRUDP XVDGRV SDUD FDOFXODU DV YDULkQFLDV DGLWLYD H UHVLGXDO PpGLDV HVWLPDGDVSDUDFDGDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDDSDUWLUGDVTXDLVIRUDPHVWLPDGDVDVUHVSHFWLYDV KHUGDELOLGDGHVHFRUUHODo}HV

5HVXOWDGRVH'LVFXVVmR

(PERUDDQRWD³´WHQKDVLGRH[FOXtGDGDDYDOLDomRGR(7QDWHQWDWLYDGHVHHYLWDU D WHQGrQFLD GRV DYDOLDGRUHV DWULEXtUHP HVWD QRWD j PDLRULD GRV DQLPDLV SRGH VHU REVHUYDGR QD )LJXUD TXH RV DYDOLDGRUHV SDUHFHP QmR FRQVHJXLU GLVWLQJXLU DV GLIHUHQoDVHQWUHRVLQGLYtGXRVTXDQWRDRWHPSHUDPHQWRDWULEXLQGRDQRWD³´jPDLRULD GRVDQLPDLV(VVDWHQGrQFLDpPXLWRSURYDYHOPHQWHUHVXOWDGRGHIDOKDQRWUHLQDPHQWR GRVDYDOLDGRUHVRXPHVPRGHXPDSRVVtYHOVXEMHWLYLGDGHQDPHWRGRORJLDGLILFXOWDQGR VXD DSOLFDomR D FDPSR $LQGDDVVLP FRPR SRGH VHU REVHUYDGRQD 7DEHOD DWUDYpV GRV UHVXOWDGRV GH GHVYLR SDGUmR QmR KRXYH SUREOHPDV HP UHODomR D FDSWDomR GD YDULDELOLGDGHJHQpWLFDH[LVWHQWHQDSRSXODomR

(44)

ϯϮ

06 TXH HPERUD DSUHVHQWH XP Q~PHUR PDLRU GH DQLPDLV QD QRWD HP WRGRV RV HVFRUHVDSUHVHQWDUDPERDVGLVWULEXLo}HV

(VWDGLIHUHQoDSURYDYHOPHQWHDFRQWHFHXSRUTXHRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVVmRDWULEXtGRV HPUHODomRDRSHUILOPpGLRGRJUXSRGHPDQHMRHQTXDQWRRHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRp DWULEXtGR LQGLYLGXDOPHQWH H HP UHODomR D SDGU}HV IL[RV GH FRPSRUWDPHQWR R TXH GLILFXOWDXPDPHOKRUGLVWULEXLomRGRVDQLPDLVGRJUXSRGHPDQHMRMiTXHDRFRQWUiULR GRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVRHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRQmRpDWULEXtGRFRPSDUDQGRRVDQLPDLV GRJUXSRGHPDQHMRHQWUHVL

)LJXUD)UHTXrQFLDVGRVHVFRUHVGHWHPSHUDPHQWRDYDOLDGRVHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH

3RU

FHQWDJHP

(VFRUHV

(45)

ϯϯ

)LJXUD )UHTXrQFLDV GRV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD DYDOLDGRVDRVREUHDQR&63606UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHHPERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH

+HUGDELOLGDGHV

3DUD WRGDV DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HVWXGDGDV REVHUYRXVH TXH DV PpGLDV PRGDV H PHGLDQDV IRUDP SUy[LPDV SDUD WRGRV RV SDUkPHWURV HVWLPDGRV R TXH VXJHUH XPD SRVVtYHO VLPHWULD GDV GLVWULEXLo}HV D SRVWHULRUL GRV SDUkPHWURV EHP FRPRGH XPD DQiOLVHDFXUDGDHGLVWULEXLomRQRUPDOGRVGDGRV

$V HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH HQFRQWUDGDV QD OLWHUDWXUD SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWR YDULDPSULQFLSDOPHQWHHPIXQomRGDPHWRGRORJLDSRSXODomRHUDoDDYDOLDGDVLQGRGH YDORUHV EDL[RV D PRGHUDGRV FRQILUPDQGR TXH R WHPSHUDPHQWRHP JHUDO YHP VHQGR GHVFULWR FRPR XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD GH KHUGDELOLGDGH PRGHUDGD D EDL[D 6+52'( +$00$&.675,&./,1HWDO)25'<&(HWDO

3RU

FHQWDJHP

(46)

ϯϰ 7DEHOD±(VWDWtVWLFDGHVFULWLYDGDVPpGLDVGDVYDULkQFLDVHHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGHGLUHWDD SRVWHULRULSDUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7YHORFLGDGHGHVDtGD 96HPPVHHVFRUHVYLVXDLVDRVREUHDQRGHFRQIRUPDomR&6SUHFRFLGDGH36H PXVFXODWXUD 06 REWLGDV D SDUWLU GH DQiOLVHV ED\HVLDQDV WULFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HP ERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH

&DUDFWHUtVWLFDV 3DUkPHWURV 0pGLD±'3 0RGD 0HGLDQD +'3

(7

ı

D ± D

ı

U ± D

K ± D

96

ı

D ± D

ıU ± D

K ± D

&6

ı

D ± D

ıU ± D

K ± D

36

ı

D ± D

ıU ± D

K ± D

06

ı

D ± D

ıU ± D

K ± D

D

σ YDULkQFLDJHQpWLFDDGLWLYDHVWLPDGD

I

σ YDULkQFLDIHQRWtSLFDHVWLPDGD

D

K KHUGDELOLGDGHHVWLPDGD

'3 GHVYLRSDGUmR+'3 KLJKHVWSRVWHULRUGHQVLW\UHJLRQUHJLmRGHDOWDGHQVLGDGH

(47)

ϯϱ

(PERUDSRVVDPVHUHQFRQWUDGRVQDOLWHUDWXUDHVWXGRVGHVFUHYHQGRDFDUDFWHUtVWLFD HVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHVWHVVmRGLIHUHQWHVHPFHUWRVDVSHFWRVHPUHODomRDRHVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR DTXL GHVFULWR QmR VHQGR HQFRQWUDGR QHQKXP HVWXGR FRP H[DWDPHQWH D PHVPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD DTXL HVWXGDGD WDOYH] SRU HVWH IDWR QmR IRUDP HQFRQWUDGRV QD OLWHUDWXUD HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH SDUD D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWRSUy[LPDVDREWLGDQHVWHHVWXGR

'HQWUH RV HVWXGRV TXH WUDEDOKDUDP FRP HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR H REWLYHUDP HVWLPDWLYDV PDLV EDL[DV SRGHPRV FLWDU /( 1(,1'5( HW DO TXH HVWLPDUDP KHUGDELOLGDGH GH SDUD DV UHDo}HV DR PDQHMR HP ERYLQRV GH FRUWH GD UDoD /LPRXVLQ H ),*8(,5('2 HW DO TXH XWLOL]DQGR DYDOLDomR GH HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWRHPDPELHQWHDEHUWRREWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYDLJXDOD

&$51(,52 HW DO WDPEpP REWLYHUDP HVWLPDWLYD PDLV EDL[D GR TXH D GHVFULWD QHVWH HVWXGR (VWHV DXWRUHV WUDEDOKDQGR FRP HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR REWLYHUDP HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH GH “ H FRQFOXLUDP TXH R PHVPRp LQIOXHQFLDGRSRUSUiWLFDVGHPDQHMRHRXWUDVFRQGLo}HVDPELHQWDLV'DPHVPDIRUPD ),*8(,5('2 HW DO REWLYHUDP HVWLPDWLYD GH KHUGDELOLGDGH LJXDO D H %$552=2HWDOUHODWDUDPKHUGDELOLGDGHPpGLDGHSDUDWHPSHUDPHQWRSDUD DQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUH

&RQVLGHUDQGR DV HVWLPDWLYDV VXSHULRUHV SRGHP VHU FLWDGRV R HVWXGR GH +($516+$: 0255,6 TXH YHULILFDUDP KHUGDELOLGDGH LJXDO D DR WUDEDOKDUFRPHVFRUHVGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHPDPELHQWHFRPUHVWULomR5HVVDOWDPRVTXH QRUHIHULGRHVWXGRIRLDYDOLDGRHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHPDPELHQWHFRPUHVWULomRH QHVWHHVWXGRXWLOL]RXVHHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHPDPELHQWHVHPUHVWULomRTXHSRGH UHSUHVHQWDUGLIHUHQoDVFRPSRUWDPHQWDLVTXDQGRFRPSDUDGRDRDPELHQWHFRPUHVWULomR VHQGR HVSHUDGR UHVXOWDGRV GLIHUHQWHV XPD YH] TXH QmR VH WUDWD GD PHVPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD

(48)

ϯϲ

5HVXOWDGRVHPHOKDQWHDRREVHUYDGRSDUDDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWR (7 IRL REVHUYDGR SDUD D FDUDFWHUtVWLFD YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD 96 2V UHVXOWDGRV GH HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH SDUD D YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD GHVFULWRV QD OLWHUDWXUD VmR VXSHULRUHVjHVWLPDWLYDGHVFULWDQHVWHHVWXGR

'HQWUH RV HVWXGRV TXH WUDEDOKDQGR FRP YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD GHVFUHYHUDP HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH VXSHULRUHV j REWLGD QHVWH HVWXGR SRGHP VHU FLWDGRV RV HVWXGRVGH',&.621HWDOTXHREWLYHUDPRYDORUGHSDUDRWHPSHUDPHQWR %8552: HW DO TXH HQFRQWUDUDP FRHILFLHQWH GH KHUGDELOLGDGH GH HP DQLPDLVFUX]DGRVH%8552:TXHUHODWRXHVWLPDWLYDVYDULDQGRGHD HPDQLPDLVFUX]DGRVGHUDoDVGHFRUWHWURSLFDO

5HVXOWDGRV TXH VmR VHPHOKDQWHV DRV REWLGRV SRU %8552: HW DO H SRU %8552: &25%(7 VHQGR REWLGRV RV YDORUHV GH SRU %8552:HW DO H DRV PHVHV SRU %8552: &25%(7 -i %8552: HW DO REWLYHUDP KHUGDELOLGDGH GH DRV PHVHV SDUD PDFKRV H IrPHDV FRQFOLXLQGR TXH D DYDOLDomR GD YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD GHYH VHU R WHVWH GD HVFROKD HP SURJUDPDVGHPHOKRUDPHQWRTXDQGRVmRXVDGRVDQLPDLV%RV WDXUXV LQGLFXVRXVHXV GHULYDGRVMiTXHDSUHVHQWDXPDKHUGDELOLGDGHPRGHUDGD

'HYH VHU REVHUYDGR TXH D PDLRU SDUWH GRV WUDEDOKRV HQFRQWUDGRV QD OLWHUDWXUD WUDEDOKDUDPFRPQ~PHURGHDQLPDLVPXLWRLQIHULRUDRXWLOL]DGRQHVWHHVWXGRRTXHSRGH MXVWLILFDU DV GLIHUHQoDV QDV HVWLPDWLYDV REWLGDV VHQGR PDLV FRQILiYHLV DV HVWLPDWLYDV REWLGDVHPHVWXGRVFRPJUDQGHQ~PHURGHDQLPDLV

$V HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH REWLGDV QHVWH HVWXGR H QRV GHPDLV FLWDGRV QD OLWHUDWXUD LQGLFDP TXH R WHPSHUDPHQWR HPERUD VHMD XPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD PXLWR LQIOXHQFLDGDSHORDPELHQWHpSDVVtYHOGHVHOHomRGLUHWDSULQFLSDOPHQWHTXDQGRHVWDp UHDOL]DGD DWUDYpV GD XWLOL]DomR GH DYDOLDo}HV FRPR R HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR RX D YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD TXH DSUHVHQWDP HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH GH PRGHUDGD PDJQLWXGHHPXLWRSUy[LPDV(VVHUHVXOWDGRpFRUURERUDGRSHORVUHVXOWDGRVREWLGRVSRU %8552:*$8/<HWDOH&$51(,52HWDO

(49)

ϯϳ

FRPRSRUH[HPSORXPPDQHMRPDOFRQGX]LGRSRGHPOHYDUDXPDLQWHUSUHWDomRHUU{QHD GR WHPSHUDPHQWR GH IRUPD TXH DQLPDLV FRQVLGHUDGRV GH ERP WHPSHUDPHQWR SRGHP DSUHVHQWDUDOWRVQtYHLVGHUHDWLYLGDGHTXDQGRH[SRVWRVDVLWXDo}HVHVWUHVVDQWHV

$VVLPDLQGDTXHDVHOHomRSDUDWHPSHUDPHQWRVHMDDGRWDGDFRPRXPDHVWUDWpJLD SDUD REWHQomR GH DQLPDLV GH ERP WHPSHUDPHQWR GHYHPRV LPSOHPHQWDU VLPXOWDQHDPHQWH PHGLGDV FRPR DGRomR GH PDQHMR UDFLRQDO LQVWDODo}HV EHP SODQHMDGDV H SULQFLSDOPHQWH SHVVRDO FDSDFLWDGR IDFLOLWDQGR D VHOHomR SDUD WHPSHUDPHQWRHUHGX]LQGRRVULVFRVGHDFLGHQWHVHQYROYHQGRDQLPDLVHWUDEDOKDGRUHV FXVWRVFRPUHSDURVItVLFRVQDSURSULHGDGHHSHUGDVTXDQWRDRUHQGLPHQWRGHFDUFDoD WmRIUHTXHQWHVSDUDDQLPDLVGHPDXWHPSHUDPHQWR

8PGRVIDWRUHVGHWHUPLQDQWHVQDFRQILDELOLGDGHGHXPDHVWLPDWLYDpRQ~PHURGH DQLPDLVDYDOLDGRVRXWDPDQKRGDDPRVWUD(PJHUDODVHVWLPDWLYDVGHKHUGDELOLGDGH GHVFULWDVQDOLWHUDWXUDWrPVLGRREWLGDVDWUDYpVGHHVWXGRVFRPDPRVWUDJHPUHGX]LGD TXDQGR FRPSDUDGDV D DPRVWUD XWLOL]DGD QHVWH HVWXGR 7DEHOD VHQGR HQFRQWUDGRV HVWXGRV EDVHDGRV QD DYDOLDomR GH DQLPDLV %8552: HW DO DQLPDLV %8552: &25%(7HYDFDVQRHVWXGRGH',&.621HWDO

&RQVLGHUDQGR TXH D SUHFLVmR GH XPD HVWLPDWLYD DXPHQWD j PHGLGD HP TXH D YDULkQFLDYDULDELOLGDGHGHQWURGDDPRVWUDGLPLQXLRXTXDQGRRWDPDQKRGDDPRVWUDp DXPHQWDGR 3,//$5 DV HVWLPDWLYDV REWLGDV QHVWH HVWXGR SRGHP VHU FRQVLGHUDGDV PDLV FRQILiYHLV GR TXH DV GHVFULWDV DQWHULRUPHQWH VREUHWXGR TXDQGR REVHUYDPRVRVGHVYLRVSDGUmRGHVFULWRVSDUDDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVDYDOLDGDV7DEHOD

$ HVWLPDWLYD GH KHUGDELOLGDGH SDUD R HVFRUH YLVXDO GH FRQIRUPDomR REWLGD QHVWH HVWXGRHVWiSUy[LPDjREWLGDSRU(/(5HWDOTXHDYDOLDQGRHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGH ERYLQRV 1HORUH DR VREUHDQR UHODWDUDP YDORU GH KHUGDELOLGDGH GH SDUD FRQIRUPDomR

(50)

ϯϴ

.285< ),/+2 HW DO DYDOLDQGR HVFRUHV YLVXDLV WDPEpP DR VREUHDQR DWUDYpVGH0i[LPD9HURVVLPLOKDQoD5HVWULWDVREPRGHORDQLPDO REWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYD GHKHUGDELOLGDGHGHWDPEpPXWLOL]DQGRERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUH5HVXOWDGRWDPEpP SUy[LPR IRL GHVFULWR SRU &$5'262 HW DO TXH REWLYHUDP KHGDELOLGDGH GH SDUDPXVFXODWXUD

(P UHODomR DR HVFRUH YLVXDO GH PXVFXODWXUD IRUDP REVHUYDGDV HVWLPDWLYDV SUy[LPDVSRU)$5,$HWDOTXHHVWLPDUDPKHUGDELOLGDGHVGHSDUDRPHVPR HVFRUH(/(5HWDOWDPEpPDSUHVHQWDUDPHVWLPDWLYDSUy[LPDSDUDRHVFRUHGH PXVFXODWXUDVHQGRGHVFUWLRRYDORUGHUHVXOWDGRSUy[LPRDRGH.285<),/+2HW DOTXHREWLYHUDPHVWLPDWLYDGHKHUGDELOLGDGHSDUDRPHVPRHVFRUHDRGH &$5'262HWDOTXHREWLYHUDPYDORUGHSDUDPXVFXODWXUDYDORUSUy[LPR GRDTXLGHVFULWRHDRGH9$10(/,6HWDOTXHDWUDYpVGRPpWRGR5REWLYHUDP YDORUGHSDUDPXVFXODWXUD

$LQGDSRGHPVHUHQFRQWUDGRVQDOLWHUDWXUDUHVXOWDGRVGLVWDQWHVGRVDTXLGHVFULWRV SDUDRVHVFRUHVGHFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHGHPXVFXODWXUD(PUHODomRDRHVFRUH GH FRQIRUPDomR R UHVXOWDGR REWLGR SRU )$5,$ HW DO SRGH VHU FLWDGR FRPR VXSHULRU DR DTXL REWLGR VHQGR GHVFULWR XP YDORU GH SDUD D KHUGDELOLGDGH GHVVD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD 'D PHVPD IRUPD R HVWXGR GH .285< ),/+2 HW DO TXH GHVFUHYHUDPYDORUGHSDUDDKHUGDELOLGDGHGDFRQIRUPDomRYDORUTXHVHHQFRQWUD DEDL[R GR REWLGR QHVWH HVWXGR 7DPEpP R HVWXGR GH &$5'262 HW DO HVWi DEDL[R GR DTXL REWLGR VHQGR GHVFULWR XPD KHUGDELOLGDGH GH SDUD D PHVPD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD

9$1 0(/,6 HW DO DWUDYpV GR PpWRGR 5 WDPEpP REWLYHUDP YDORU GH KHUGDELOLGDGHVXSHULRUDRREWLGRQHVWHHVWXGRVHQGRDKHUGDELOLGDGHGHVFULWDSDUD FRQIRUPDomR (VWLPDWLYDV PDLV DOWDV IRUDP REWLGDV SRU <2.22 HW DO WUDEDOKDQGRFRPHVFRUHVGHHVWUXWXUD(SUHFRFLGDGH3HPXVFXODWXUD0UHODWDUDP YDORUGHFRP0i[LPD9HURVVLPLOKDQoD5HVWULWDHDQiOLVHVPXOWLFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV

(51)

ϯϵ

PXOWLYDULDGRHPDQLPDLVGDUDoD%UDQJXV9$10(/,6HWDOREWLYHUDPYDORUHV GHSDUDSUHFRFLGDGHUHVXOWDGRDEDL[RGRDTXLREWLGR

5HVXOWDGR PXLWR DFLPD GR DTXL GHVFULWR SDUD KHUGDELOLGDGH GD FDUDFWHUtVWLFD SUHFRFLGDGH IRL GHVFULWR SRU <2.22 HW DO TXH UHODWDUDP YDORU GH FRP 0i[LPD9HURVVLPLOKDQoD5HVWULWDHDQiOLVHVPXOWLFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHSRU.285<),/+2 HWDOTXHWUDEDOKDQGRFRPHVFRUHVGHHVWUXWXUDSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUDH XWLOL]DQGR R PpWRGR GD 0i[LPD 9HURVVLPLOKDQoD 5HVWULWD VRE PRGHOR DQLPDO SDUD ERYLQRVGDUDoD1HORUHHQFRQWUDUDPHVWLPDWLYDVGH“SDUDSUHFRFLGDGH

3DUDRHVFRUHYLVXDOGHPXVFXODWXUDSRGHPVHUFLWDGRVFRPHVWLPDWLYDVGLVWDQWHV GDV DTXL GHVFULWDV R HVWXGR GH <2.22 HW DO TXH UHODWDUDP KHUGDELOLGDGH GH HWDPEpPRHVWXGRGH.285<),/+2HWDOTXHREWLYHUDPKHUGDELOLGDGH “SDUDDPHVPDFDUDFWHUtVWLFD

(PERUD H[LVWDP HVWXGRV TXH UHODWDUDP TXH HP VH WUDWDQGR GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV FDWHJyULFDV RXVRGDPHWRGRORJLD GHPRGHORV OLQHDUHVQmR pWHRULFDPHQWHDGHTXDGR SRGHQGR JHUDU EDL[DV HVWLPDWLYDV GRV SDUkPHWURV JHQpWLFRV )$5,$ HW DO D DSOLFDomRGHPRGHORVGHOLPLDUQDHVWLPDomRGHSDUkPHWURVJHQpWLFRVpGLILFXOWDGDSHORV UHTXHULPHQWRVGHWHPSRHFDSDFLGDGHGHPHPyULDSULQFLSDOPHQWHTXDQGRWUDEDOKDVH FRPJUDQGHVEDQFRVGHGDGRVFRPRHRFDVRGRSUHVHQWHHVWXGR

$VVLP VHJXQGR )$5,$ HW DO TXH FRQFOXLUDP QmR KDYHU GLIHUHQoDV QDV HVWLPDWLYDV GH KHUGDELOLGDGH H FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV GRV HVFRUHV GH DYDOLDomR YLVXDO TXDQGR VmR XWLOL]DGRV PRGHORV GH OLPLDU RX OLQHDU DPERV RV PRGHORV SRGHULDP VHU DSOLFDGRVQHVWHHVWXGR

(52)

ϰϬ

&RUUHODo}HVHQWUHWHPSHUDPHQWRHHVFRUHVYLVXDLV

$VVLPFRPR.285<),/+2HWDOYHULILFDPRVTXHVmRFRPXQVQDOLWHUDWXUD HVWXGRV GH FUHVFLPHQWR FRP EDVH QRV SHVRV SRUpP VmR HVFDVVRV WUDEDOKRV TXH UHODFLRQHP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV PRUIROyJLFDV FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH FRPSRUWDPHQWR DQLPDO SDUWLFXODUPHQWH WHPSHUDPHQWR HP ]HEXtQRV $GLFLRQDOPHQWH TXDQGR RV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV VmR LQFOXtGRV FRPR FULWpULRV GH VHOHomR GHYHVH OHYDU HP FRQVLGHUDomR DV FRUUHODo}HV GHVWDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV LPSRUWDQWHV HFRQRPLFDPHQWH FRPRRWHPSHUDPHQWRTXHWHPLQIOXrQFLDGLUHWDQDHILFLrQFLDGHTXDOTXHUVLVWHPDGH SURGXomRGHERYLQRVGHFRUWH

$VHVWLPDWLYDVGHFRUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDVHIHQRWtSLFDVHQWUHDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDV(7 96&636H06DYDOLDGDVDRVREUHDQRHVWmRDSUHVHQWDGDVQD7DEHOD2EVHUYRX VH TXH DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH FRUUHODomR JHQpWLFD H IHQRWtSLFD HQWUH DV PHGLGDV GH WHPSHUDPHQWR(7H96HDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHHVFRUHVYLVXDLV&636H06IRUDP QHJDWLYDVHGHEDL[DPDJQLWXGH

3DUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV HP TXHVWmR RV UHVXOWDGRV GH FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV QHJDWLYDVVmRIDYRUiYHLVXPDYH]TXHHVVHWLSRGHFRUUHODomRLQGLFDULDTXHDVHOHomR GLUHWD SDUD DV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH HVFRUHV YLVXDLV &6 36 H 06 WUDULD UHGXomR QRV HVFRUHVGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHQDYHORFLGDGHGHVDtGDDPERVUHSUHVHQWDQGRDQLPDLVGH PHOKRUWHPSHUDPHQWR1RHQWDQWRDPDJQLWXGHGDVFRUUHODo}HVpEDL[DRTXHVXJHUH TXHDVHOHomRSDUDFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUDQmRGHYHWUD]HUPXGDQoDV LPSRUWDQWHVTXDQWRDRWHPSHUDPHQWRGRVDQLPDLV

(53)

ϰϭ 7DEHOD±(VWLPDWLYDVDSRVWHULRULGDVFRUUHODo}HVJHQpWLFDVHQWUHRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVDRVREUHDQR GHFRQIRUPDomR&6SUHFRFLGDGH36HPXVFXODWXUD06HDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVFRUH GHWHPSHUDPHQWR(7HYHORFLGDGHGHVDtGD96HPDQLPDLVGDUDoD1HORUH

&DUDFWHUtVWLFDV 0pGLD±'3

0RGD 0HGLDQD +3'

&RUUHODomR*HQpWLFD

(7[&6 ±

D

(7[36 ±

D

(7[06 ±

D

96[&6 ±

D

96[36 ±

D

96[06 ±

D

&RUUHODomR)HQRWtSLFD

(7[&6 ±

D

(7[36 ±

D

(7[06 ±

D

96[&6 ±

D

96[36 ±

D

96[06 ±

D

'3 GHVYLRSDGUmR+'3 KLJKHVWSRVWHULRUGHQVLW\UHJLRQUHJLmRGHDOWDGHQVLGDGH

)RUDP HQFRQWUDGRV QD OLWHUDWXUD SRXFRV UHODWRV GH HVWXGR GH FRUUHODomR HQWUH HVFRUHVYLVXDLVHDFDUDFWHUtVWLFDWHPSHUDPHQWRVHQGRRHVWXGRGH&$51(,52HWDO R~QLFRDWUDWDUGDFRUUHODomRHQWUHWHPSHUDPHQWRWUDEDOKDQGRFRPHVFRUHVGH WHPSHUDPHQWRHRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGHFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUD

(54)

ϰϮ

GHWHPSHUDPHQWRFRPRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGHFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUD UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH(VVDVFRUUHODo}HVHPERUDWDPEpPSRVVDPVHUFRQVLGHUDGDVEDL[DV HVWmRDFLPDGDVHVWLPDGDVQRSUHVHQWHWUDEDOKR

(PERUD VHMDP HVFDVVRV QD OLWHUDWXUD WUDEDOKRV TXH FRUUHODFLRQHP PHGLGDV PRUIROyJLFDV FRP WHPSHUDPHQWR VmR IUHTXHQWHV HVWXGRV TXH WUDWHP GD UHODomR FRP PHGLGDV GH SHVR TXH SRU VXD YH] DSUHVHQWDP DOWD FRUUHODomR FRP DV PHGLGDV PRUIROyJLFDV 6HQGR RV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD IRUPDVDOWHUQDWLYDVGHVHDYDOLDUFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVFRPRWD[DGHFUHVFLPHQWRSHVRSHVR ILQDO H DFDEDPHQWR GH FDUFDoD DWUDYpV GD REVHUYDomR GD PRUIRORJLD GRV DQLPDLV D DYDOLDomRGDFRUUHODomRHQWUHWHPSHUDPHQWRHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSRQGHUDLVGHYHULDPQRV GDUSUHYLV}HVVREUHDFRUUHODomRHQWUHRWHPSHUDPHQWRHRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLV

$VVLP p SHUWLQHQWH REVHUYDU TXH H[LVWHP HVWXGRV TXH PRVWUDUDP FRUUHODo}HV IDYRUiYHLV WDQWR HQWUH WHPSHUDPHQWR H FDUDFWHUtVWLDV SRQGHUDLV TXDQWR HQWUH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSRQGHUDLVHHVFRUHVYLVXDLV78//2+%8552: ',//21 926,1(7HWDO*$8/<HWDO),*8(,5('2HWDO),*8(,5('2HW DO.285<),/+2HWDO6,/9(,5$HWDO%(+5(1'6HWDO 0$5&21'(6HWDO$VVLPVHULDHVSHUDGRTXHDFRUUHODomRHQWUHWHPSHUDPHQWR HHVFRUHVYLVXDLVWDPEpPIRVVHIDYRUiYHO

'HIDWR GH DFRUGR FRP RHVSHUDGR D FRUUHODomRHQWUH WHPSHUDPHQWRH HVFRUHV YLVXDLVVmRIDYRUiYHLV7DEHODFRPUHGXomRSDUDWHPSHUDPHQWRDPHGLGDTXHIRUHP REWLGRV DQLPDLV FRP PDLRUHV HVFRUHV YLVXDLV 1R HQWDQWR WHPSHUDPHQWR HVWi PXLWR PDLV IRUWHPHQWH FRUUHODFLRQDGR FRP FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SRQGHUDLV GD PHVPD IRUPD TXH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SRQGHUDLV H HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GR TXH HQWUH WHPSHUDPHQWR H HVFRUHV YLVXDLVHQWUHVL

(55)

ϰϯ

&RQFOXV}HV

'H DFRUGR FRP RV UHVXOWDGRV SDUD DV HVWLPDWLYDV GH FRUUHODo}HV JHQpWLFDV H GH UHVSRVWDFRUUHODFLRQDGDQmRUHFRPHQGDVHDVHOHomRLQGLUHWDSDUDWHPSHUDPHQWRFRP EDVHQDVHOHomRSDUDRVHVFRUHVYLVXDLVGHFRQIRUPDomRSUHFRFLGDGHHPXVFXODWXUD

$ LQFOXVmR GD DYDOLDomR GR WHPSHUDPHQWR FRP D DSOLFDomR GR HVFRUH GH WHPSHUDPHQWR RX GD YHORFLGDGH GH VDtGD H HVFRUHV YLVXDLV GH FRQIRUPDomR SUHFRFLGDGH H PXVFXODWXUD VLPXOWDQHDPHQWH QRV tQGLFHV GH VHOHomR SRGH VHU UHDOL]DGDXPDYH]TXHDVFRUUHODo}HVHQWUHHVWDVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVVmRIDYRUiYHLV

$VHOHomRSDUDWHPSHUDPHQWRDWUDYpVGHHVFRUHGHWHPSHUDPHQWRHYHORFLGDGHGH VDtGDGHYHPWUD]HUSURJUHVVRJHQpWLFRSDUD³ERPWHPSHUDPHQWR´

Referências

Documentos relacionados

0 XLWRVWUDEDOKDGRUHVDWXDYDPWDQWRQDVLQVWDODo}HVFRPRQDFRQVHUYDomRH QD PDQXWHQomR GD &amp; RPSDQKLD ( QWUH RXWURV KDYLD RV RSHUDGRUHV GH WUiIHJR FRP PDTXLQLVWDV GH SULPHLUD GH VHJXQGD H

$ SHVTXLVD YHUVD VREUH R IHQ{PHQR GD H[LVWrQFLD HP WHPSR UHDO H GH VXD GHWHUPLQDomR D SDUWLU GR FRQWH[WR JORFDO QHP JOREDO QHP ORFDO DSUHHQGHQGR DV SRVVLELOLGDGHV GH FRPSUHHQVmR GH

É também sabido que a combinação de duas a quatro espécies de coberturas vegetais pode ser mais eficiente, uma vez que possuem um número de características

Ainda que sem significado estatístico o excesso de peso encontrou-se mais associado ao sexo masculino, aos encarregados de educação mais escolarizados, aos que não praticam

3URJUDPD8)&amp;79 3URJUDPD WHOHYLVLYR QD tQWHJUD FRQWHQGR HQWUHYLVWDV H FREHUWXUD de eventos. 8)&amp;79B Sigla do nome do programa e GDWD GH H[LELomR QR

GH LQVWDODomR VXEPHWLGRV D SUHVV}HVGH H N3D 2 WUDEDOKRIRL UHDOL]DGR QR /DERUDWyULR GH +LGUiXOLFD GR 'HSDUWDPHQWR GH (QJHQKDULD 5XUDO GD )DFXOGDGH GH &amp;LrQFLDV $JUiULDV

1R LQtFLR GR H[SHULPHQWR D ž&amp; D VXSHUItFLH GDV SDWDV GR WXFDQRWRFR DSUHVHQWRX XPD WHPSHUDWXUD HOHYDGD SRU YROWD GH ƒ&amp; )LJXUD 1R LQtFLR GD GLPLQXLomR GD WHPSHUDWXUD DPELHQWH

3URSRVWD GH XPD DUTXLWHWXUD SDUD D GHVFULomR ELEOLRJUiILFD GRV DVSHFWRV VHPkQWLFRV GH IRUPD H FRQWH~GR GRV UHFXUVRV LQIRUPDFLRQDLV QD SHUVSHFWLYD GD LQWHURSHUDELOLGDGH