Thi?_3@_L ,L*UL?@hLc W?ihU@ W?@UL?@h@

(1)

Thi?_3@_L ,L*UL?@hLc W?ihU@ W?@UL?@h@

i +iUitt@L i4 #it?@ULit L?i|@h@t

@hUL L?L4L

,B,%6BV V?Ut @hh@tUL

5|@?uLh_ N?iht|) O4Mih|L Lhih@

N+L 6iMh@h) Sc 2ff

Mt|h@U|

,t|i @h|}L MtU@ t|U@h @ i_ i?U@ U@t@* _i î _it?@ULit 4L?i|@h@t |i?_i4 @ tih @UL4T@?@_@t _i î_@ ?L ThL_|L |*3@?_Lti _L @hU@MLUL _@ AiLh@ _Lt aL}Lt ,L*UL?@hLt @T*U@U@L _it|i @h U@MLUL |i4 L ti @Ti*L TLhî UL4M?@ _@t TL|itit uhiî?|i4i?|i

@TL?|@_@t UL4L hitTL?t@it Ti*L u@|L _i ^i _it?@ULit Uhit | i4 Ut|LtG h@UL?@*_@_i *4|@_@ i u@*@ _i ULLh_i?@U@L @?@*ti _@t _it?@ULit UL?t||ti ?@ @?@*ti _@ |h@?tU@L i?|hi _Lt i^*MhLt it|@

UL?@hLt _? @4U@ _@ iUL?L4@ i4 _hiU@L @L ?LL i^*MhL _L L}L _i it|@Mi*iU4i?|L _i ThiULt i _@_@ Ti*@ _? @4U@ hiT*U@_Lh@c ^i t@

4@ hi}h@ _i ti*iU@L _i it|h@|i}@t 4|L t4T*itG it|h@|i}@t ^i @ Thiti?|@4 _iti4Ti?L TLh ^i @ 4i_@ | i4 t@ |*3@U@L hi_3_@ @L

*L?}L _L |i4TL t Ut|Lt _@ _it?@U@L i4 ?LttL 4L_i*L _iTi?_i _L

^@L h@T_L @}i?|it T@ttLtc ^i @_L|@@4 @ it|h@|i}@ L|4@ T@h@ L i^*MhL ?@UL?@hLc ti UL?ih|i4 i4 @}i?|it @|Ltc ^i @_L|@4 it

|h@|i}@t 4@ 43@_Lh@t _h@?|i @ |h@?tU@L

W?|hL_U@L

Kd fodud hylgahqfld klvwrulfd gh txh whqwdwlydv gh frpedwh d lqdfdr edvhdgdv hp frqwuroh gh ghpdqgd djuhjdgd uhvxowdp hp txhgdv gh surgxwr1 Lvwr ghfruuh gd uhgxfdr ghidvdgd qr ulwpr gh fuhvflphqwr gh suhfrv/ r txh id} frp txh d uhfhvvdr dfrqwhfd dqwhv txh d uhgxfdr ghvhmdgd qd lqdfdr vh hihwlyh1

D shujxqwd reyld txh vxujh/ hqwdr/ h gr srutxah rv djhqwhv qdr dmxvwduhp lphgldwdphqwh vhxv suhfrv txdqgr gd hihwlydfdr gd srolwlfd dqxqfldgd1 Fodud0 phqwh/ vre d klsrwhvh gh txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld fxpsud uljrurvdphqwh r dqxqflr/ r dmxvwh fruuhvsrqghqwh grv suhfrv uhvxowd qd fhvvdr lphgldwd gd lq0 dfdr vhp qhqkxpd shugd gh surgxwr1 Sduwh gd olwhudwxud 0 dvvrfldgd d hvfrod Qryr Fodvvlfd 0 dsrqwd d idowd gh fuhglelolgdgh gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld frpr vhqgr d xqlfd uhvsrqvdyho shor qdr dmxvwh frpsohwr grv suhfrv1 Hvshflfdphqwh/

frp fuhglelolgdgh lpshuihlwd h h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv/ rv sulfh vhwwhuv whqghp d dmxvwdu vhxv suhfrv whqgr frpr uhihuahqfld xpd phgld gr hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh

4

(2)

prhgd/ txh srqghud d suredelolgdgh gr dqxqflr qdr vhu hihwlydgr h d srolwlfd prqhwduld qdr vhu wdr uhvwulwlyd txdqwr r dqxqfldgr1 Frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ qd klsrwhvh gh txh vh fxpsud r dqxqflr/ d hfrqrpld hqwudud hp uhfhvvdr1 Qr hqwdqwr/ frpr qrwdgr sru Edoo +4<<4,/ vre d klsrwhvh gh txh qdr vh fxpsud r dqxqflr/ d hfrqrpld ghyhuld vh h{sdqglu/ r txh h frqwudidfwxdo1 D fuhglelol0 gdgh lpshuihlwd qdr h{solfd d hylgahqfld gh txh surjudpdv gh frpedwh d lqdfdr fdxvdp/ hp phgld/ uhfhvvdr1

Sru rxwur odgr/ kd xpd ydvwd olwhudwxud txh hqidwl}d gh txh r fxvwr gdv ghvlqdfrhv ghyh0vh d uljlgh} qrplqdo qrplqdo gh suhfrv/ txh vhuld xpd fdudf0 whulvwlfd hvvhqfldo gdv hfrqrpldv prqhwduldv1 Dfuhglwdyd0vh txh d klsrwhvh gh uljlgh} qrplqdo dvvrfldgd dr lqwhufdodphqwr grv dmxvwhv gh suhfrv sru vl vr mxv0 wlfduldp r fdudwhu uhfhvvlyr gdv ghvlqdfrhv prqhwduldv1 Wdo fuhqfd edvhdyd0vh qr vxsrvwr gh txh prghorv txh jhudp lqhufld gh suhfrv wdpehp jhuduldp lqhufld lqdflrqduld1 Frpr prvwudgr sru Edoo +4<<7,/ wdo suhvxqfdr hud lqixqgdgd1

Dv klsrwhvh gh uljlgh} qrplqdo h gh frqwudwrv lqwhufdodgrv srghp vhu lqwhu0 suhwdgdv frpr vhqgr xp duwlilflr gh prghodjhp sdud fdswdu r sureohpd gh frru0 ghqdfdr/ txh ghvgh Wrelq dfuhglwdyd0vh vhu r fhuqh gr sureohpd gdv ghvlqdfrhv prqhwduldv1 Vlprqvhq +4<;6, uhvroyh dwdfdu gluhwdphqwh d txhvwdr prghodqgr h{solflwdphqwh dv ghflvrhv lqglylgxdlv gh ghwhuplqdfdr gh suhfrv frpr xp mrjr gh hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv hqwuh dv updv1 Vlprqvhq fulwlfd d uhohyadqfld gr frqfhlwr gh htxloleulr gh Qdvk sdud d vroxfdr ghvwh mrjr/ dgrwdqgr xpd vroxfdr hp txh rv djhqwhv djhp frp xp judx h{wuhpr gh suxgahqfld1 Hvwd lghld irl dshuihlfdgd hp Grz/ Vlprqvhq h Zhuodqj +4<<6,/ txh vh xwlol}dp gr frqfhlwr gh lqfhuwh}d nqljkwldqd hp mrjrv lqwurgx}lgr sru Grz h Zhuodqj +4<<7,1

Qhvwh duwljr/ wudwduhprv r sureohpd gd lqhufld lqdflrqduld frpr vhqgr xp sureohpd gh frrughqdfdr hqyroyhqgr udflrqdolgdgh olplwdgd sru sduwh grv djhqwhv1 Pdlv hvshflfdphqwh/ vxsruhprv txh sduwh grv djhqwhv qdr vdr frp0 sohwdphqwh udflrqdlv/ pdlv whp xp dsuhqgl}dgr gr wlsr suhfrql}dgr hp mrjrv hyroxflrqdulrv1 Lvwr dihwd r uhvxowdgr pdfurhfrqarplfr gluhwd h lqgluhwdphqwh1 R hihlwr lqgluhwr ghyh0vh d frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd qr hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv txh id} frp txh r hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv grv djhqwhv udflrqdlv vhmd lqxhqfldgr shorv suhfrv grv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv1 Frpr frqvhtxahqfld xpd shtxhqd sursrufdr gh djhqwhv hyroxflrqdulrv h vxflhqwh sdud jhudu lqhufld lq0 dflrqduld h shugd gh surgxwr phvpr sdud hvwdelol}dfrhv shuihlwdphqwh fulyhlv1 Hvwh uhvxowdgr frqupd d frqmhfwxud gh Edoo +4<<4,/ h h vlplodu dr uhvxowdgr hqfrqwudgr sru Erqrpr +4<<5,/ rqgh hp xpd vlwxdfdr gh frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd dowd/ xpd shtxhqd sursrufdr gh djhqwhv qdr0qhxwurv h fdsd} gh fdxvdu vxevwdqfldo qdr0qhxwudolgdgh qd hfrqrpld1

D klsrwhvh gd h{lvwahqfld gh xp juxsr gh djhqwhv qdr0udflrqdlv hp prghorv gh glqadplfd lqdflrqduld whp vlgr xwlol}dgd gh glyhuvdv irupdv hp duwljrv uh0 fhqwhv sdud mxvwlfdu d lqhufld lqdflrqduld1 Urehuwv +4<<:, mxvwlfd d lqhulfd lqdflrqduld d sduwlu gh h{shfwdwlydv txh whp xp frpsrqhqwh dgdswdwlyr1 Edoo +4<<<, vh xwlol}d gh lghld vlplodu dr sursru txh djhqwhv whqkdp h{shfwdwlydv dgdswdwlydv/ h dujxphqwdu txh d shugd lqfruulgd shod txdvh udflrqdolgdgh h sh0 txhqd qr fdvr gd hfrqrpld dphulfdqd1 Dpdwr h Odxedfk +5333, sursrhp xp prghor qr txdo xpd iudfdr grv djhqwhv xvdp uhjudv gh erovr= updv ghwhupl0

5

(3)

qdp r suhfr h{wudsrodqgr d lqdfdr sdvvdgd h frqvxplgruhv hvrokhp frqvxplu xpd iudfdr gd uhqgd glvsrqlyho1

Dfuhglwdprv txh d lqrydfdr ghvwh wudedokr hvwhmd hp sursru xpd glqadplfd sdud r ghvylr gd udflrqdolgdgh txh lqwhudjh frp d wudqvlfdr hqwuh hvwdgrv lq0 dflrqdulrv1 Oxfdv +4<;9, frqvlghud txh dv uhjudv gh ghflvdr dvvrfldgdv d udflrqdolgdgh +pdlv hvshflfdphqwh/ dv h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv, vhmdp hvwdgrv hvwdflrqdulrv gh dojxp surfhvvr dgdswdwlyr1 Xpd lghld vlplodu d hvwd prwlyd r suhvhqwh wudedokr1 Txdqgr sduwh grv djhqwhv uhdmxvwd rv vhxv suhfrv dxwr0 pdwlfdphqwh gh dfrugr frp d lqdfdr fruuhqwh gxudqwh r hvwdgr hvwdflrqdulr/

hvwdr djlqgr rwlpdphqwh/ hperud sru lqhufld1 Txdqgr d srolwlfd gh ghvlqdfdr h dgrwdgd/ d lqhufld vh wruqd fxvwrvd h hvwh fxvwr ghwhuplqd d yhorflgdgh gh frqyhuvdr grv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv hp udflrqdlv1 Gh irupd pdlv gluhwd/ wrpduhprv hpsuhvwdgr gd whruld grv mrjrv hyroxflrqdulrv d fkdpdgd glqadplfd uhsolfdgrud/

txh hvwdehohfh txh d sursrufdr gh djhqwhv dgrwdqgr xpd fhuwd hvwudwhjld dx0 phqwd +glplqxl, vh wdo hvwudwhjld jhud xpd sd|r pdlru +phqru, txh r sd|r phglr gdv hvwudwhjldv1 Qr qrvvr frqwh{wr/ rv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv rewhudr xp sd|0 r phqru txh r gd phgld gd hfrqrpld qd wudqvlfdr h/ sruwdqwr/ whqghudr d ghvdsduhfhu dvvlqwrwlfdphqwh/ r txh lpsolfdud txh d hfrqrpld frqyhujlud sdud r htxloleulr hp h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv qr orqjr sud}r +lvwr h/ qr orqjr sud}r/ wr0 grv rv mrjdgruhv whudr orfdol}dgr r qryr Htxloleulr gh Qdvk,1 D glqadplfd ghvwh dsuhqgl}dgr lqwhudjh frp d wudmhwruld gh ghvlqdfdr gd srolwlfd prqhwduld/ gh0 whuplqdqgr d lqhufld lqdflrqdulfd h d shugd gr surgxwr1

D sulphlud vhfdr gr duwljr dsuhvhqwd/ d sduwlu gd uhjud rwlpd gh hvwdehoh0 flphqwr gh suhfrv uhvxowdqwh gh xpd hfrqrpld hp frpshwlfdr prqrsrolvwlfd/

frpr d sursrvwd sru Eodqfkdug h Nl|rwdnl +4<;:,/ r mrjr gh hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv txh h{soruduhprv1 Ghvhqyroyhuhprv r h{huflflr gh hvwdelol}dfdr gh suhfrv frp fuhglelolgdgh shuihlwd vre d klsrwhvh gh txh sduwh grv djhqwhv djhp gh irupd sdvvlyd1 Hvwdehohfhuhprv d glqadplfd uhsolfdgrud sdud hvwhv djhqwhv/ rewhqgr/

dvvlp/ xpd wudmhwruld qr whpsr sdud rv phvprv1 Ghulyduhprv dv wudmhwruldv gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv h gr surgxwr vre hvwd klsrwhvh/ frpsdudqgr frp r uhvxowdgr vre h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv1 D vhjxqgd vhfdr hvwhqgh r prghor sdud ghvlqdfrhv olqhduhv lqfoxlqgr d srvvlelolgdgh gh txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld srvvd dedqgrqdu d ghvlqdfdr1 D xowlpd vhfdr whfh rv frphqwdulrv qdlv1

2 W?ihU@ W?@UL?@h@ i Thi?_3@_L ,LUL?@hLG hi_M_@_i ihui|@ i #it?@U@L W4i_@|@

Qhvwd vhfdr/ dsuhvhqwdprv r uhvxowdgr gh xpd whqwdwlyd gh hvwdelol}dfdr gh suhfrv hp xpd hfrqrpld hp txh sduwh grv djhqwhv wahp lqlfldophqwh hvwudwhjld sdvvlyd h dsuhqgh dshqdv hyroxflrqduldphqwh r qryr htxloleulr1 Iduhprv d vx0 srvlfdr gh txh r surfhvvr gh dsuhqgl}dgr ghvwhv djhqwhv vhjxh xpd uhjud edv0 wdqwh vlpsohv= hvwudwhjldv txh jhudp sd|r pdlru gr txh r sd|r phglr gd hfrqrpld whqghp d vh uhsurgx}lu1 Prvwuduhprv txh hvwh surfhvvr gh dsuhqgl}d0 jhp uhvxowd/ qr orqjr sud}r/ hp xp htxloleulr hp h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv1 Qr

6

(4)

hqwdqwr/ frpr qdr vh dwlqjh hvwh htxloleulr lqvwdqwdqhdphqwh/ yhuhprv txh d hfrqrpld vriuhud xpd shugd gh surgxwr ghfruuhqwh gd lqhufld lqdflrqduld1

2 ,^*MhL ,t|@UL?@hL UL4 W?@U@L

Frqvlghudqgr xpd hfrqrpld frp frpshwlfdr prqrsrolvwlfd hqwuh surgxwruhv/

frp surgxwrv frp hodvwlflgdgh vxevwlwxlfdr frqvwdqwh/ h prhgd qd ixqfdr xwlo0 lgdgh/ frpr d ghvfulwd shor prghor gh Eodqfkdug h Nl|rwdnl +4<;:,/ srgh0vh prvwudu txh r suhfr uhodwlyr rwlpr hvwdehohflgr shor surgxwru l h

Sl@ S^dP^4d +4,

qr txdo S h xpd phglgd gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv +txh frqvlghuduhprv frpr vhqgr ljxdo d phgld jhrphwulfd grv suhfrv dgrwdgrv shorv djhqwhv,/ P h r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd h 3 ? d ? 4 h xp sduadphwurv txh ghshqgh gh do0 jxqv sduadphwurv gd ixqfdr xwlolgdgh gr surgxwru0frqvxplgru1 D htxdfdr dflpd uhhwh d lqwhughshqgahqfld hvwudwhjlfd qr hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv qhvwd hfrqr0 pld1 R surgxwru0frqvxplgru l/ dr hvwdehohfhu r vhx suhfr rwlpr/ ohyd hp frq0 vlghudfdr/ dwudyhv gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv S / rv suhfrv hvfroklgrv shorv ghpdlv surgxwruhv1 R htxloleulr gh Qdvk vlphwulfr sdud hvwh mrjr gh hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv h gdgr shod frqglfdr

Sl@ S @ 3P +5, qd txdo 3@ ^4d⁴ =

Sruwdqwr/ r suhfr rwlpr gh fdgd surgxwru +h r qlyho jhudo suhfrv, h xpd ixqfdr olqhdu gr hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd gd hfrqrpld1

H ud}rdyho vxsru txh/ hp xp dpelhqwh gh lqdfdr fuarqlfd/ r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd fuhvfd d xpd wd{d frqvwdqwh/ / lvwr h/

P +w, @ P3h{s +w, = +6, Vxevwlwxlqgr0vh +6, hp +5,/ whp0vh/ surqwdphqwh/

Sl@ S @ 3P3h{s +w, = +5³,

Fodudphqwh/ hp xpd vlwxdfdr gh htxloleulr/ r qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv fuhvfh d phvpd wd{d/ / txh r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd1

22 ,t|h@|i}@t _i #i|ih4?@U@L _i hiULt _h@?|i @ ,t

|@M*3@U@L

Vxsrqkdprv txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld dqxqflh +gh irupd wrwdophqwh fulyho, txh d sduwlu gh xp lqvwdqwh wgr whpsr r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd vh hvwdelol}h hp P3h{s+w, =

7

(5)

Hp rxwudv sdodyudv/ txh d wudmhwruld gr hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd vhmd ghvfulwd sru

P +w, @ P3h{s +w, > ;w w= +7,

Hp xp htxloleulr gh h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv/ gdgd d wrwdo fuhglelolgdgh gr dqxqflr gh hvwdelol}dfdr/ rv djhqwhv dgrwduldp lphgldwdphqwh d hvwudwhjld dv0 vrfldgd dr htxloleulr gh Qdvk/ lvwr h/ hvwdehohfhuldp vhxv suhfrv gh dfrugr frp +5*,/ r txh lpsolfduld

S +w, @ 3P3h{s +w, S3> ;w w +8,

h/ frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ xpd wd{d gh lqdfdr ljxdo d }hur d sduwlu gd hihwlydfdr gd qryd srolwlfd prqhwduld1 Whp0vh/ frpr uhvxowdgr gh xp dqxqflr fulyho gh pxgdqfd gh srolwlfd prqhwduld/ d srvvlelolgdgh gh xpd hvwdelol}dfdr gh suhfrv vhp hihlwr uhfhvvlyr vreuh d hfrqrpld1⁴

Wdo uhvxowdgr ghshqgh fuxfldophqwh gd klsrwhvh gh txh +wrgrv, rv djhqwhv hvwhmdp dswrv d orfdol}du r qryr htxloleulr gh Qdvk gd hfrqrpld txdqgr gd hihwlydfdr gd qryd srolwlfd/ frqiruph dsrqwdgr sru Vlprqvhq +4<;6,1 Dgrwduh0 prv d klsrwhvh gh txh xpd iudfdr grv surgxwruhv frqwlqxh/ gh irupd sdvvlyd/

dgrwdqgr d hvwudwhjld dvvrfldgd d srolwlfd prqhwduld dqwhulru1⁵ Fodudphqwh/ wdo sdvvlylgdgh whp xp fxvwr= qd hfrqrpld dtxl ghvfulwd/ rv djhqwhv lqfruuhp hp xpd shugd sru hvwduhp irud gh vhx suhfr rwlpr/ vhqgr hvwd shugd xpd ixqfdr gr qxphur gh shvvrdv txh dmxvwd vhx suhfr hp dfrugr frp d qryd srolwlfd prqhwduld1 Pdlv hvshflfdphqwh/ vxsruhprv txh xpd sursrufdr n A 3 gh djhqwhv frqwlqxhp hvwdehohfhqgr vhx suhfr hp dfrugr frp +5*,/ txh srgh vhu uhhvfulwd sdud lqvwdqwhv gh whpsr pdlruhv rx ljxdlv d wfrpr

Sq+w. w³, Sq+w³, @ 3P3h{s ^ +w. w³,` S3h{s +w³, /

sdud w³ 3 h qd txdo S3 fruuhvsrqgh dr htxloleulr gh Qdvk vlphwulfr vre qryd srolwlfd prqhwduld1

D sursrufdr frpsohphqwdu +4n, gh djhqwhv qd hfrqrpld dgrwd d hvwudwhjld rwlpd Su+w³, @ S^dP^4d1 Xvdqgr0vh r idwr gh txh d srolwlfd prqhwduld sdud lqvwdqwhv gh whpsr pdlruhv rx ljxdlv d w h gdgd sru P3h{s +w, @ ^S³₃ whprv txh r suhfr rwlpr h gdgr sru

Su@ k

S_u⁴ⁿ+S3h{s +qw³,,ⁿld S3

3

_4d +:,

2, UL4L ti T@h|i _Lt @}i?|it ?@L TihUiMitti4 ^ic UL4 @ 4_@?U@ _@ TL*|U@ 4L?i|@h@c L L}L 4_@

8

(6)

txh/ uhvroyhqgr sdud Su/⁶ lpsolfd

Su@ S3h{s++n,w³, +;, qr txdo

+n, @ nd

4 +4 n,d ? / ;n/

qrwh0vh txh +3, @ 3/ r txh lpsolfd txh rv djhqwhv rwlpl}dgruhv dgrwduldp d hvwudwhjld uhodwlyd dr htxloleulr gh Qdvk vlphwulfr fdvr qdr krxyhvvh djhqwhv sdvvlyrv qhvwd hfrqrpld1 Xwlol}dqgr0vh d h{suhvvdr sdud r suhfr rwlpr h d h{suhvvdr sdud r suhfr dgrwdgr shod sursrufdr n gh djhqwhv plrshv/ whprv txh r qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv srgh vhu ghvfulwr frpr

S @ S_u⁴ⁿ+S3h^qw³,ⁿ@ S3h{s ^+w³n +q +n,, . +n, w³,` = +<,

Qrwh0vh txh r uhvxowdgr gh lqhufld ghfruuh gh grlv hihlwrv1 R sulphlur ghohv h r hihlwr gluhwr gh xpd sursrufdr gh djhqwhv qd hfrqrpld frqwlqxdu d uhdmxvwdu vhxv suhfrv d phvpd wd{d txh dmxvwdydp vre d srolwlfd dqwhulru1 R hihlwr lqgluhwr vhjxh gr idwr gh txh/ dr hvwdehohfhu rwlpdphqwh vhx suhfr uhodwlyr/ r djhqwh udflrqdo ohyd hp frqvlghudfdr/ yld qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv/ d hvwudwhjld dgrwdgd shod sursrufdr gh djhqwhv sdvvlyrv h/ frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ vhjxh uhdmxvwdqgr vhx suhfr +dlqgd txh d xpd wd{d phqru txh ,1 Hp rxwudv sdodyudv/ qhvwh wudedokr/

frqvlghudprv lqhufld lqdflrqduld frpr vhqgr uhvxowdgr gd lqwhudfdr hqwuh d sdvvlylgdgh gh dojxqv djhqwhv h d frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd h{lvwhqwh qr mrjr gh hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv/ txh id} frp txh d sdvvlylgdgh grv djhqwhv luudflrqdlv whqkd lqxahqfld vreuh r suhfr hvwdehohflgr shorv djhqwhv udflrqdlv1⁷ Qrwh0vh txh/ vh wrgrv rv djhqwhv vh frrughqdvvhp surqwdphqwh sdud r qryr htxloleulr/ qdr whuldprv r uhvxowdgr gh lqhufld1 Hvwdprv hp xpd vlwxdfdr hp txh kdyhuld jdqkrv sdud wrgrv rv djhqwhv vh wrgrv hvwdehohfhvvhp vhxv suhfrv hp S31 Qr hqwdqwr/ lqglylgxdophqwh/ lvwr vr h rwlpr vh wdo hvwudwhjld wdpehp iru dgrwdgd shorv ghpdlv djhqwhv1 Hp rxwudv sdodyudv/ kd xp sureohpd gh idokd gh frrughqdfdr1 Qr qrvvr prghor/ h d h{lvwahqfld gh djhqwhv plrshv txh lpshgh txh rv djhqwhv vh frrughqhp qd hvwudwhjld S31⁸

W4T*U|@4i?|ic it|@4Lt t@?_L L u@|L _i ^i Lt @}i?|it h@UL?@t UL?iUi4 @ it|h@|i}@

|*3@_@ Ti*Lt @}i?|it 4LTitc L ^i Lt U@T@U|@ @ ?uihhc @ T@h|h _L i* Bih@* _i hiULtc

@ ThLTLhU@L _i @}i?|i hh@UL?@t Ah@|@ti _@ UL?iU_@ TL|iti _i ^i @t it|h@|i}@t @ _tTLtU@L _Lt @}i?|it t@L _i UL?iU4i?|L UL44

e TL|iti _i ^i Lt Ut|Lt _i _it?@U@L TL_i4 tih i T*U@_Lt TLh @*}4@ uLh4@ _i UL4TLh|@4i?|L ^i i?L*@ _itLt i4 hi*@U@L @ h@UL?@*_@_i @ uL *i@?|@_@ TLh @** Ebb

|hL @h|}L î tihi _i 4L|@U@L T@h@ it|i |h@M@*L i L _i +LMih|t Ebb. it|i |h@M@*Lc i?UL?|h@ti î Lt _@_Lt @4ihU@?Lt _i ?@U@L t@L UL?_3i?|it UL4 4 4L_i*L i4 î Lt ThiULt t@L h}_Lt i @t i TiU|@|@t t@L 4@ UL4M?@U@L UL?i @ i?|hi i TiU|@|@t h@UL?@t i M@U!@h_ *LL!?}

DLLTih i aL? EbHH i 4@ hiuih i?U@ ti4?@* ?@ UL?t|@|@U@L _i ^i hit*|@_Lt ki)?i t@?Lt TL_i4 tih _iULhhi?|it _i u@*@t _i ULLh_i?@U@L _Lt @}i?|it i4 t|@ULit ^i @Thiti?

|@4 UL4T*i4i?|@h_@_i it|h@|i}U@

9

(7)

R lqwxlwr edvlfr ghvwh wudedokr h sursru xp phfdqlvpr gh dsuhqgl}dgr sdud rv djhqwhv plrshv txh frqvljd ghvfuhyhu vxd wudmhwruld dr orqjr gr whpsr1 Iduhprv lvwr dwudyhv gd glqadplfd uhsolfdgrud1 Frp d wudmhwruld ghvwhv djhqwhv hp pdrv/ frqvhjxluhprv ghvfuhyhu d wudmhwruld gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv h gr surgxwr ghvwd hfrqrpld1

2 #? @4U@ +iTU@_Lh@ UL4L iU@?t4L _i 5iiU@L _i ,t|h@|i}@t

Dgrwduhprv d klsrwhvh gh txh rv djhqwhv plrshv lqfruuhp hp xpd shugd txdgudwlfd dr qdr hvwdehohfhuhp rwlpdphqwh vhxv suhfrv1⁹ Pdlv hvshflfdphqwh/ vxsruh0 prv txh d shugd wrpd d vhjxlqwh irupd^:

Oq@ ^Sq Su`⁵ +43,

qd txdo A 31 Vxevwlwxlqgr0vh dv h{suhvvrhv sdud r suhfr hvwdehohflgr shorv djhqwhv qdr udflrqdlv h sdud r suhfr rwlpr/ whprv txh d shugd srgh vhu ghvfulwd sru

Oq@

S3h{s+w3, S3h{s

ndw³ 4 +4 n,d

₅

1 +43³,

Wrpduhprv hpsuhvwdgr gd whruld grv mrjrv hyroxflrqdulrv d fkdpdgd glqadplfd uhsolfdgrud/ txh hvwdehohfh txh d sursrufdr gh mrjdgruhv dgrwdqgr ghwhuplqdgd hvwudwhjld dxphqwd +glplqxl, vh r sd|r rewlgr sru hvwd hvwudwhjld iru pdlru +phqru, txh r sd|r phglr1 Pdlv hvshflfdphqwh/ d Glqadplfd Uhsolfdgrud wrpd d vhjxlqwh irupd^;

g{l

gw +w, @ {l+w,

X +dl> {+w,, X+{+w,,

/ l @ 4> 5> ====> q1 +44,

qr txdo {l h d sursrufdr gh mrjdgruhv dgrwdqgr d hvwudwhjld dl/ X +d~> {+w,, h r sd|r rewlgr shod hvwudwhjld dl h X+{+w,, h r sd|r phglr1 Hvwd uhjud gh dsuhqgl}dgr vlpsohv jhud uhvxowdgrv edvwdqwh iruwhv frpr= +l, vh xp shuo gh hvwudwhjldv plvwdv {@ +{₄> {₅> ===> {_L, h xp htxloleulr gh Qdvk vlphwulfr/ hqwdr { h xp hvwdgr hvwdflrqdulr gr vlvwhpd +44,> +ll, vh r hvwdgr hvwdflrqdulr { h hvwdyho/ hqwdr +{₄> {₅> ===> {_L, h xp htxloleulr gh Qdvk> h +lll, vh xpd hvwudwhjld

SM@4i?|ic Lt @}i?|it h@UL?@tc TLh @_L|@hi4 L ThiUL L|4Lc ?@L ?ULhhi4 i4 Tih_@

@*}4@

.L_i4Lt t|U@h |@* Tih_@ @|h@it _i 4@ @ThL 4@U@L _i ti}?_@ Lh_i4 _@ u?U@L

*UhL @L hi_Lh _L ThiUL L|4L Vi@4LtG

Z E ;' Z E^W n ZE^W d3 ^Wo n

2Z E^W d3 ^Wo²

UL?_U@L _i Th4ih@ Lh_i4 T@h@ *UhL 4@ 4L i ZE^W ' f Lh|@?|Lc TL_i4Lt @ThL 4@h

@ u?U@L Tih_@ TLh ₂Z E^W d3 ^Wo²

H@h@ _ih@U@Lc ih `iM** EbbH L 6_i?Mih} i wi?i EbHH

:

(8)

sxud dl iru hvwulwdphqwh +rx lwhudgdphqwh, grplqdgd/ hqwdr d sursrufdr gh djhqwhv txh d dgrwd frqyhujh sdud 3 qr orqjr sud}r1^<

Qr qrvvr fdvr hvshflfr/ whprv gxdv hvwudwhjldv= rv djhqwhv dmxvwdp rwlpd0 phqwh vhxv suhfrv rx frqwlqxdp dgrwdqgr r suhfr dvvrfldgr d srolwlfd prqhwduld dqwhulru1⁴³ Qr htxloleulr lqdflrqdulr dv gxdv hvwudwhjldv jhudp sd|rv htxly0 dohqwhv/ md txh d hvwudwhjld sdvvlyd h wdpehp rwlpd qhvwd vlwxdfdr1 Txdqgr pxgd d srolwlfd prqhwduld d vlwxdfdr pxgd/ h rv txh xwlol}dp d hvwudwhjld dwlyd qdr lqfruuhp hp shugd dojxpd1 Rv vhjxqgrv lqfruuhp qd shugd h{suhvvd sru +43*,1 Xwlol}dqgr0vh dv h{suhvvrhv sdud d glqadplfd uhsolfdgrud h r sd|r phglr gd hfrqrpld/ whprv txh d glqadplfd sdud d sursrufdr gh shvvrdv txh qdr hvwd0 ehohfhp vhxv suhfrv rwlpdphqwh h gdgd sru⁴⁴

gn

gw @ n+4 n,Oq/ +45,

txh/ vxevwlwxlqgr0vh d h{suhvvdr sdud Oq/ wrpd d vhjxlqwh irupd gn

gw+w, @ n+4 n,

S3h{s+qw³, S3h{s

qndw³ 4 +4 n,d

5

+45³, Kd grlv hvwdgrv hvwdflrqdulrv sdud hvwd htxdfdr glihuhqfldo1 Hohv fruuhvsrq0 ghp drv hvwdgrv n @ 3 ⁴⁵ h n @ 41 Qrwh0vh/ qr hqwdqwr/ txh sdud wrgr n glihuhqwh gh 3 h 4/ whp0vh ^gn_gw ? 31 Frqfoxl0vh txh r hvwdgr hvwdflrqdulr dvvr0 fldgr d n @ 3 h joredophqwh hvwdyho1 Qdr h srvvlyho hqfrqwudu xpd vroxfdr dqdolwlfd sdud +45*,/ r txh vxjhuh txh d htxdfdr glihuhqfldo dflpd ghyh vhu uh0 vroylgd dwudyhv gh phwrgrv qxphulfrv1⁴⁶ Qr hqwdqwr/ xpd fdudfwhulvwlfd gd glqadplfd h revhuydyho vhp txh whqkdprv xpd vroxfdr h{solflwd1 Sdud lqvwdqwhv gh whpsr vxflhqwhphqwh judqghv/ d sursrufdr gh djhqwhv plrshv ydl d }hur1 Hvwd frqvwdwdfdr uhodflrqd0vh gluhwdphqwh frp xp grv uhvxowdgrv dsuhvhqwdgrv1 Ylprv txh hvwudwhjldv hvwulwdphqwh grplqdgdv whqghp d ghvdsduhfhu gd srs0 xodfdr sdud txdotxhu frqglfdr lqlfldo lqwhulru/ lvwr h/ qhvwh fdvr/ sdud txdotxhu frqglfdr lqlfldo hp txh kdmd dojxqv djhqwhv dgrwhp r suhfr rwlpr1 Qr qrvvr h{hpsor/ qdr dgrwdu r suhfr rwlpr h xpd hvwudwhjld hvwulwdphqwh grplqdgd1

b,t|@ *|4@ UL?_U@L @*i T@h@ ^@*^ih UL?_U@L ?U@* ^i ti@ TL?|L ?|ihLh _L t4T*i _i it|h@|i}@t @h@ @t ThL@t _i |@t hit*|@_Ltc hi4i|i4Lt L *i|Lh @ `,WNww EbbH

f hit*|@_L E |Lh?@ i^@*i?|i @ ?Ltt@ @MLh_@}i4 UL4 _@t it|h@|i}@t @L U@tL i4

^i @ 4 ?4ihL ?|L _i it|h@|i}@t ti?_L |L_@tc UL4 i UiU@L _i 4@G @ _i @_L|@h L ThiUL

L|4Lc |ih@_@4i?|i _L4?@_@t

*@h@4i?|ic L T@)Lg 4i_L _@ ,UL?L4@ i _@_L TLh &u?

2L u?_Lc L hit*|@_L _i ^i & ' f i 4 it|@_L it|@UL?@hL _@ _? @4U@ hiT*U@_Lh@

@_i4 _L u@|L ^i @t|@h L ThiUL L|4@4i?|i i 4 ,^*MhL _i @t Vih L hit*|@_L E

L_ih@4Lt *?i@h3@h E2< i4 |Lh?L _i & ' f ic UL4L UL?ti^ i?U@c LM|ih 4@ tL*U@L

@?@*|U@ T@h@ @ _? @4U@ *?i@h3@_@ #iiti ?L|@hc i?|hi|@?|Lc ^ic @L *?i@h3@h E2<c it|@h@4Lt hi|h@?_L |L_L L iui|L _@ UL4T*i4i?|@h_@_i it|h@|i}U@ tLMhi @ |h@i|Lh@ _Lt

@}i?|it 4LTit Wt|L u@h@ UL4 ^i Lt iui|Lt hi@t _@ i t| i?U@ _i @}i?|it 4LTit uLtti4 _4?_Lt

;

(9)

2e ihtt| i?U@ W?@UL?@h@ i ih_@ _i hL_|L

Frp d h{suhvvdr txh ghvfuhyh d wudmhwruld sdud n/ srghprv id}hu dojxqv h{huflflrv uhodwlyrv d shuvlvwahqfld lqdflrqduld h shugd gh surgxwr txdqgr gh xpd whqwdwlyd gh hvwdelol}dfdr gh suhfrv1 Ghqlqgr/ s @oqS h s3@oqS3/ whprv/

dr wrpduprv r orjdulwlpr gd h{suhvvdr gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv +<,/

s @ s3. +q +n,, w³n . +n, w³1

Xp uhvxowdgr/ txh vhud frqupdgr shorv h{huflflrv gh vlpxodfdr txh iduhprv/

h txh/ vre d klsrwhvh gh txh d wudmhwruld grv suhfrv grv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv vhmd gdgd shod glqadplfd +45*,/ whprv txh r qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv frqyhujh sdud r qlyho gh suhfrv dvvrfldgr dr htxloleulr hp h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv/ S31 Sruwdqwr/ d Hfrqrpld frqyhujh sdud xpd vlwxdfdr gh lqdfdr }hur/ rx/ hp rxwudv sdodyudv/

d hfrqrpld frqyhujh sdud xpd vlwxdfdr hp txh wrgrv rv djhqwhv dgrwdp d hvwudwhjld dvvrfldgd dr htxloleulr gh Qdvk vlphwulfr/ txh lpsolfdud xp qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv frqvwdqwh hp S31 Hqwuhwdqwr/ dr frqwudulr gr txh rfruuhuld hp xp htxloleulr hp h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv/ d wudmhwruld gd hfrqrpld hp gluhfdr d hvwh hvwdgr hvwdflrqdulr h pxlwr pdlv wruwxrvd ghylgr d h{lvwahqfld gh djhqwhv sdvvlyrv1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

tempo Nível Geral de Preços

Iljxuh 4=

D jxud 4 ghprqvwud hvwh idwr sdud xpd sursrufdr lqlfldo gh djhqwhv sdv0 vlyrv gh 8( h xpd wd{d gh lqdfdr gh 8(1 Qrwh0vh txh frqvlghudprv xpd dowd

<

(10)

frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd +d @ 3> <,/ r txh id} frp txh rv hihlwrv uhdlv gd sdvvlylgdgh vhmdp pdmrudgrv1 Lvwr rfruuh sru gxdv ud}rhv= +l, txdqwr pdlru d frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd/ pdlv shvr rv djhqwhv udflrqdlv gdr dr frpsru0 wdphqwr grv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv/ r txh lpsolfd txh rv sursulrv djhqwhv udflrqdlv dmxvwdp pdlv udslgdphqwh rv vhxv suhfrv/ h +ll, d shugd grv djhqwhv luudflrqdlv h phqru/ ghylgr dr txh irl h{srvwr qr lwhp +l,/ h/ sruwdqwr/ vxd yhorflgdgh gh ghvdsduhflphqwr h phqru1

R +orjdulwlpr gr, qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv gh htxloleulr gh orqjr0sud}r h ljxdo d s3 +txh qrupdol}dprv sdud }hur,1 Hqwuhwdqwr/ whp0vh txh/ sdud xp shulrgr gh whpsr qdr ghvsuh}lyho/ hvwd phglgd dvvxph ydoruhv pdlruhv txh r dvvrfldgr dr orqjr0sud}r1⁴⁷ R surgxwr ghvwd hfrqrpld h r qhjdwlyr gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv1 Whp0vh/ frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ txh rv hihlwrv uhdlv gd whqwdwlyd gh hvwdelol}dfdr vdr qhjdwlyrv h shuvlvwhqwhv1 Ghyh0vh uhvvdowdu txh frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd h ixqgdphqwdo sdud r sulqflsdo uhvxowdgr gr wudedokr= shtxhqrv +hp whuprv gh sursrufdr, ghvylrv gh udflrqdolgdgh srghp jhudu vxevwdqfldlv hihlwrv uhdlv qd hfrqrpld vh krxyhu lqwhudfdr hvwudwhjlfd hqwuh rv djhqwhv1 Sdud loxvwudu hvwh uhvxowdgr/ d jxud 5 ghvfuhyh d wudmhwruld gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv sdud xpd hfrqrpld frp d phvpd sursrufdr lqlfldo gh djhqwhv plrshv h wd{d gh lqdfdr/

pdv hp frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd +d @ 3,1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

0 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.01 0.012 0.014

Iljxuh 5=

Hp sulphlur oxjdu/ r hihlwr gd frpsohphqwdulhgdgh hvwudwhjlfd vreuh d pdj0 qlwxgh gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv +h frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ qr surgxwr, h edvwdqwh

eL|itic @?_@c ^i @ _ih@_@ _L ?i* }ih@* _i ThiULt i TLt|@ T@h@ ?t|@?|it _i |i4TL tTihLhit @L _@ iui|@U@L _@ it|@M*3@U@L L UL?|h@hLc }ih@?_L ?ihU@ ?@ |@ @ _i ?@U@L

43

(11)

judqgh1 R qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv dwlqjh/ hp vhx pd{lpr/ r ydoru +dsur{lpdgr, gh 3> 345 sdud d @ 3 h 3> 44 sdud d @ 3> <1 Hp rxwudv sdodyudv/ rv hihlwrv gd sdvvlylgdgh +n+3, @ 3> 38, vdr gh} yh}hv pdlruhv qr fdvr hp txh kd dowd frp0 sohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd1 Srxfd glihuhqfd kd/ qr hqwdqwr/ qr txh gl} uhvshlwr d shuvlvwahqfld grv hihlwrv1 Hp dperv rv fdvrv/ rv hihlwrv uhdlv sduhfhp whu d phvpd gxudfdr lqghshqghqwhphqwh gr judx gh frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd1 Shodv vlpxodfrhv txh }hprv/ sduhfh0qrv txh glihuhqfdv qdv sursrufrhv lqlfldlv gh djhqwhv plrshv jhudp glihuhqfdv qd shuvlvwahqfld grv hihlwrv uhdlv1 D jxud 6 loxvwud hvwh uhvxowdgr1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Iljxuh 6=

Xp uhvxowdgr lqwhuhvvdqwh jhudgr shor qrvvr prghor h txh d shuvlvwahqfld gr hihlwrv uhdlv uhvxowdqwhv gh xp surjudpd gh hvwdelol}dfdr vdr phqruhv sdud wd{dv gh lqdfdr pdlruhv +yhu Iljxud 7,1 Fodudphqwh/ lvwr ghfruuh gr idwr gh txh d yhorflgdgh frp txh rv djhqwhv luudflrqdlv ghvdsduhfhp gd hfrqrpld h pdlru txdqwr pdlru iru / frpr srgh vhu ylvwr shod glqadplfd +45*,1 Hp rxwudv sdodyudv/ qrvvr prghor suhyah txh rv djhqwhv frqvhjxhp vh frrughqdu pdlv udslgdphqwh hp gluhfdr dr qryr htxloleulr hp vlwxdfrhv gh dowd lqdfdr1

D vhjxlu frpsdudprv qrvvd irupxodfdr frp dv hp Vlprqvhq +4<;6,/ h Grz/

Vlprqvhq h Zhuodqj +4<<6,1

44

(12)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 -0.05

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3

Iljxuh 7=

2D L4T@h@U@L UL4 54L?ti? EbH i #Lc 54L?ti?

i `ih*@?} Ebb

Vlprqvhq +4<;6, vxsrh txh rv djhqwhv hvwhmdp dswrv d orfdol}du r qryr htxloleulr gh Qdvk dsrv d pxgdqfd gh srolwlfd prqhwduld/ pdv txh hvwhmdp lqfhuwrv txdqwr dr idwr gh rv rxwurv djhqwhv hvwduhp mrjdqgr wdo hvwudwhjld1 Wdo lqfhuwh}d id} frp txh rv djhqwhv dgrwhp hvwudwhjldv pd{plq txh jdudqwhp dr phqrv d rewhqfdr gh xp sd|r plqlpr qr slru hvwdgr gd qdwxuh}d1⁴⁸ Vre d klsrwhvh gh txh rv djhqwhv dgrwdp hvwudwhjldv pd{plq h vxsrqgr xpd wudmhwruld +dg krf, sdud hvwd hvwudwhjld/ Vlprqvhq prvwud txh r uhvxowdgr gh hvwdelol}dfdr lqgroru qdr pdlv yljrud/ jhudqgr0vh lqhufld lqdflrqduld h/ gdgr r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd {r/

xpd glplqxlfdr gr hvwrtxh uhdo gh prhgd1

Hqwuhwdqwr/ dr phvpr whpsr txh sduhfh0qrv srxfr ud}rdyho txh rv djhqwhv hvwhmdp dswrv d orfdol}du lphgldwdphqwh r qryr htxloleulr gh Qdvk/ lvwr h/ txh xp htxloleulr gh h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv yljruh h txh d uhgxfdr gd lqdfdr d }hur dfrqwhfd lqvwdqwdqhdphqwh vhp fxvwr dojxp hp whuprv gh surgxwr/ wdpsrxfr sduhfh0qrv ud}rdyho txh rv djhqwhv vhmdp dyhvvrv dr ulvfr dr h{wuhpr gh irupd d dgrwduhp hvwudwhjldv pd{plq1 Qr mrjr gh hvwdehohflphqwr gh suhfrv frp r txdo hvwdprv olgdqgr/ qdr kd ud}dr sdud txh xp mrjdgru dfuhglwh txh rv rxwurv mrjdgruhv dmdp gh irupd d plqlpl}du r vhx sd|r/ srlv qdr vh wudwd gh xp mrjr gh vrpd }hur1 Hp mrjrv qdr hvwulwdphqwh frpshwlwlyrv/ d hvfrokd

D6Lh4@*4i?|ic 4@ it|h@|i}@ 4@ 4? hitL*i L ti}?|i ThLM*i4@G @ ?L E@c @c

?L ^@* LEc hiThiti?|@ L T@)Lg _L L}@_Lhc @c ' c c ?c hiThiti?|@ L UL??|L _i @ULit _L L}@_Lhc @c ' c c ?c hiThiti?|@ L UL??|L _i @ULit @ _tTLtU@L _L L|hL L}@_Lh

45

(13)

gd hvwudwhjld pd{plq gldqwh gh xpd suredelolgdgh pxlwr shtxhqd gh txh r rsrqhqwh/ wdoyh} sru huur/ hvfrokd xpd hvwudwhjld txh plqlpl}h vhx sd|r h d jurvvr prgr htxlydohqwh d xpd dyhuvdr dr ulvfr lqqlwd1

Sdud jhudu r vhx uhvxowdgr/ Vlprqvhq +4<;6, wdpehp suhflvd hvshflfdu/ d fdgd prphqwr/ r frqmxqwr gh hvwudwhjldv dgplvvlyhlv txh vhuylud gh edvh sdud hvwudwhjld pd{plq1 D hvwudwhjld pd{plq qr vhx prghor htxlydoh d vxsru txh rv frpshwlgruhv hvfrokdp r suhfr pd{lpr gr frqmxqwr gh suhfrv srvvlyhlv/ rqgh hvwh frqmxqwr h ghqlgr gh irupd dg0krf +srutxh qdr gh }hur d lqqlwrB,1 Sdud mxvwlfdu r htxloleulr lqdflrqdulr lqlfldo/ hvwh frqmxqwr ghyh vhu ghjhqhudgr h lqfoxlu vrphqwh r suhfr gh htxloleulr1 Hoh frqvlghud txh txdqgr kd hvwdelol}dfdr/

r hohphqwr pd{lpr ghvwh frqmxqwr h r suhfr yljhqwh dqwhulruphqwh fruuljlgr shod lqdfdr sdvvdgd1 Frqvhtxhqwhphqwh/ d lqhufld lqdflrqduld h jhudgd d sduwlu gd klsrwhvh gh txh r hohphqwr pd{lpr gr frqmxqwr gh suhfrv srvvlyhlv dxphqwd d fdgd shulrgr gh dfrugr frp d lqdfdr sdvvdgd1 Sruwdqwr/ d lqhufld lqdflrqduld gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv h jhudgd d sduwlu gd klsrwhvh gh lqhufld lqdflrqduld qr suhfr pd{lpr txh xpd upd srgh freudu1

Grz/ Vlprqvhq h Zhuodqj +4<<6, gdr xpd irupdol}dfdr pdlv hohjdqwh d lghld gh txh xpd dyhuvdr d shugdv txdolwdwlydphqwh vxshulru d lpsolflwd qd pd{lpl}dfdr gh xwlolgdgh hvshudgd vh frqvwlwxl qxp lqjuhglhqwh hvvhqfldo gr phfdqlvpr gh jhudfdr gd lqhufld lqdflrqduld1 Xwlol}dp0vh gd irupdol}dfdr gh lqfhuwh}d nqljkwldqd gh Vfkphlgohu h Jloerd +Vfkphlgohu 4<;5/ Jloerd 4<;:

h Jloerd h Vfkphlgohu 4<;<,/ h gd vxd srvwhulru lqfrusrudfdr dr frqfhlwr gh vroxfdr gh mrjrv sru Grz h Zhuodqj +4<<7,1 Vxevwlwxhp d vroxfdr pd{plq sru htxloleulr gh Qdvk frp lqfhuwh}d nqljkwldqd1 Hqwuhwdqwr/ d xwlol}dfdr ghvwh frqfhlwr gh vroxfdr h{ljh txh vh ghqd r frqmxqwr gh hvwudwhjldv srvvlyhlv sdud fdgd mrjdgru1 Gh qryr/ d lpsrvlfdr gd klsrwhvh gh lqhufld lqdflrqduld gr suhfr pd{lpr dgplvvlyho sdud fdgd mrjdgru jhud d lqhufld gd lqdfdr gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv1

D klsrwhvh txh dgrwdprv qrv sduhfh pdlv ud}rdyho h phqrv duwlfldo/ hp0 erud hvwhmd vxmhlwd d fulwlfdv vlploduhv1 Gxudqwh r htxloleulr lqdflrqdulr h sodxvlyho vxsru txh pxlwrv grv djhqwhv dmxvwhp vhxv suhfrv dxwrpdwlfdphqwh/

vhp udflrqdol}du/ srlv hvwd irupd gh djlu qdr whp pxlwrv fxvwrv1 Txdqgr d vlwxdfdr pxgd/ rv djhqwhv udflrqdlv uhfdofxodp dv vxdv hvwudwhjldv hqtxdqwr rv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv ydr ghl{dqgr gh vah0orv qd phglgd hp txh shufhehp dv shugdv gh oxfur jhudgdv shod vxd hvwudwhjld/ ylv d ylv/ vhxv frpshwlgruhv udflrqdlv1Qr qrvvr prghor/ r txh jhud uhvxowdgrv h d lqhufld gh frpsruwdphqwr gh dojxqv djhqwhv/

txh dsuhqghp d sduwlu gh vxdv shugdv1 R judx gh lqhufld jhudgr ghshqgh lqyhu0 vdphqwh gd yhorflgdgh gh dsuhqgl}dgr1 Sruwdqwr/ rv qrvvrv uhvxowdgrv vhjxhp0vh gd klsrwhvh gh txh shor phqrv xp juxsr gh djhqwhv qdr h wdr udflrqdo txdqwr r vxsrvwr qr prghor gh h{shfwdwlydv udflrqdlv1 Hqtxdqwr rv djhqwhv gh Vlprq0 vhq +4<;6, h Grz/ Vlprqvhq h Zhuodqj +4<<6, glihuhp grv djhqwhv gr prghor frqyhqflrqdo sru vhuhp txdolwdwlydphqwh pdlv dyhvvrv d shugdv1

46

(14)

#it?@U@L w?i@h UL4 LttM*_@_i _i +i|hL UittL

Qd vhfdr dqwhulru/ dgrwdprv dv klsrwhvhv gh txh d whqwdwlyd gh hvwdelol}dfdr frqvlvwld hp uhgx}lu d wd{d gh fuhvflphqwr gr hvwrtxh gh prhgd d }hur h gh txh/

xpd yh} hihwlydgr r surjudpd gh hvwdelol}dfdr/ d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld qdr uhwurfhghuld1 R dqxqflr gd qryd srolwlfd prqhwduld hud wrwdophqwh fulyho1 Edoo +4<<8, prvwud txh d frpelqdfdr hqwuh uhdmxvwhv qdr0vlqfurql}dgrv gh suhfrv h ghvlqdfrhv olqhduhv srgh/ dr frqwudulr gr txh vxsxqkdp rv hfrqrplvwdv qryr0 nh|qhvldqrv/ jhudu h{sdqvrhv/ h qdr shugdv gh surgxwr1 Xp grv remhwlyrv ghvwd vhfdr h prvwudu txh r qrvvr prghor jhud shugd gh surgxwr phvpr hp frqglfrhv gh ghvlqdfdr olqhdu1 R rxwur remhwlyr h ghulydu dv srvvlyhlv lpsolfdfrhv +hp whuprv gh surgxwr, gh xp uhwurfhvvr qd whqwdwlyd gh hvwdelol}dfdr sru sduwh gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld1

Qhvwh h{huflflr/ prghoduhprv d wudmhwruld gr hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd gd phvpd irupd txh r id} Edoo +4<<8,/ lvwr h/ dgrwduhprv d klsrwhvh gh txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld uhgx}d olqhduphqwh d wd{d gh fuhvflphqwr gr hvwrtxh gh prhgd1 Frqvlghuduhprv/ dlqgd/ d srvvlelolgdgh gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld uhwurfhghu h sdudu gh uhgx}lu d wd{d gh fuhvflphqwr gd prhgd1 R lqvwdqwh gh whpsr qr txdo r uhwurfhvvr rfruuh h wudwdgr frpr xpd yduldyho dohdwruld frp glvwulexlfdr h{srqhqfldo frp sduadphwur k A 31 Txdqwr pdlru r ydoru gr sduadphwur ghvwd glvwulexlfdr/ pdlv fhgr/ hp phgld/ rfruuh r uhwurfhvvr1⁴⁹ Qhvwd vhfdr/ hvwduhprv lqwhuhvvdgrv qrv hihlwrv phglrv gd lqwhudfdr hqwuh d plrsld gh sduwh grv djhqwhv h d srvvlelolgdgh gh uhwurfhvvr sru sduwh gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld1

#it?@U@L w?i@h UL4 +i|hLUittL *i@|LhL

Vhjxlqgr Edoo +4<<8,/ sduwlprv gh xpd vlwxdfdr hp txh r orjdulwlpr^4: gr hv0 wrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd fuhvfh d xpd wd{d frqvwdqwh 0 txh qrupdol}dprv sdud 4 0 h txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld dqxqfld xpd ghvlqdfdr olqhdu d vhu lqlfldgd hp w +txh/ wdpehp sru frqyhqlahqfld/ qrupdol}dprv sdud 3,1 Lvwr h/

bp+w, @

4 ^w> 3 w ?

3> w +46,

qr txdo phgh d udslgh} gd ghvlqdfdr1 Txdqwr phqru iru / pdlv udslgd vhud d ghvlqdfdr1 Frqvlghuduhprv/ qr hqwdqwr/ d srvvlelolgdgh gh txh d dxwrulgdgh

SL|iti ^ic ?it|i U@tLc @ itTih@?U@ _@ @h@i* @*i@|Lh@ i * "@?|L 4@Lh c |i4ti

^i L hi|hLUittL LULhhic i4 4i_@c 4@t Ui_L Uhi_M*_@_i _ii tih 4i?Lh

.it|@ tiU@Lc |L_@t @t @h@it tih@L i Thitt@t i4 *L}@h|4Lc TLtc UL4L it|@hi4Lt @?@*

t@?_L Lt iui|Lt 4i_Lt _@ _it?@U@Lc @ *L}*?i@h_@_i _L 4L_i*L tih@ _i }h@?_i @*@

47

(15)

prqhwduld sduh gh ghvlqdu hp dojxp lqvwdqwh 5 +3> 4,/ rx vhmd/

bp+w, @

;A AA AA AA

? AA AA AA A=

4 w

sdud 3 w ?

4

vh ? sdud w A

3 vh

+47,

qr txdo h xpd yduldyho dohdwruld txh vhjxh xpd glvwulexlfdr h{srqhqfldo frp sduadphwur k1 Whprv txh +47, lpsolfd txh d wudmhwruld gr hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd srgh vhu h{suhvvd sru

p+w, @

;A AA AA AA AA

? AA AA AA AA A=

w w⁵

sdud 3 w ?

⁵ 5 .

4

w vh ? sdud w A

5 vh

+48,

2 t hiULt ,t|@MiiU_Lt TiLt }i?|it

Dvvlp frpr qd vhfdr dqwhulru/ iduhprv d klsrwhvh gh txh xpd sursrufdr n gh djhqwhv frqwlqxh hvwdehohfhqgr vhxv suhfrv sdud lqvwdqwhv gh whpsr pdlruhv txh }hur hp dfrugr frp d srolwlfd prqhwduld dqwhulru d ghvlqdfdr1 Lvwr lpsolfd txh r suhfr +hp orjdulwlpr, dgrwdgr sru wdlv djhqwhv srgh vhu h{suhvvr sru^4;

sq@ w1 +49,

Sru vxd yh}/ rv djhqwhv udflrqdlv/ hp sursrufdr +4 n,/ hvwdehohfhp vhxv suhfrv gh irupd rwlpd=

su@ ds . +4 d, p/ +4:, rqgh

s @ nsq. +4 n, su1

Xwlol}dqgr d h{suhvvdr sdud r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd h uhvroyhqgr +4:, sdud

Htt4 UL4L ?@ tiU@L T@tt@_@c it|@4Lt tTL?_L ^ic @?|it _L @??UL _L ThL}h@4@ _i it|@M*3@U@Lc |L_Lt Lt @}i?|it it|@@4 @_L|@?_L @ it|h@|i}@ hi*@|@ @L , t4i|hULc t|L

ic R' R ' 6 ' | c T@h@ |L_L

48

(16)

suwhprv txh r suhfr hvwdehohflgr shorv djhqwhv udflrqdlv srgh vhu hvfulwr frpr

su@

;A AA AA AA AA A? AA AA AA AA AA

=

w +4 d, w⁵

+4 d . nd,⁵ su4+w> > n, sdud 3 w ? w . +4 d,

+4 d . nd, ⁵

5 w

su5+w> > n, vh ? sdud w dnw

4 d . nd. +4 d, +4 d . nd,

5 s³_u4+w> > n, vh

+4;,

qr txdo ghqlprv sul> l @ 4> 5 frp r lqwxlwr gh vxdyl}du d qrwdfdr1 Qrydphqwh/ d h{lvwahqfld gh djhqwhv sdvvlyrv hp frqmxqfdr frp frpsohphqwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd id} frp txh rv djhqwhv udflrqdlv dmxvwhp vhxv suhfrv d xpd wd{d pdlru gr txh d txh dmxvwduldp fdvr qdr krxyhvvh wdlv djhqwhv1 Rv phvprv grlv hihlwrv 0 r gluhwr txh dgyhp gr idwr gh xpd sursrufdr gh djhqwhv frqwlqxdu d dmxvwdu vhxv suhfrv hp dfrugr frp d srolwlfd dqwhulru/ h r lqgluhwr txh uhvxowd gd lqwhudfdr hqwuh hvwhv djhqwhv h rv udflrqdlv 0 flwdgdv qd vhfdr dqwhulru id}hp frp txh r qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv txh dflpd gr frqgl}hqwh frp d srolwlfd prqhwduld/

phvpr d sduwlu gr lqvwdqwh hp txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld sdud gh ghvlqdu1 Xp srqwr d vhu qrwdgr h txh/ sdud xpd uhdol}dfdr gd yduldyho dohdwruld qr lqwhuydor +3> , r suhfr dgrwdgr shorv djhqwhv plrshv sdvvd d vhu pdlv sur{lpr gr suhfr rwlpr/ r txh lpsolfd txh/ sdud lqvwdqwhv gh whpsr pdlruhv rx ljxdlv dr txh d dxwrulgdgh sdud gh ghvlqdu/ d yhorflgdgh gh frqyhuvdr wruqd0vh phqru1 Frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ rv hihlwrv uhodflrqdgrv d h{lvwahqfld gh wdlv djhqwhv vhudr pdlv shuvlvwhqwhv1 D suredelolgdgh gh 5 +3> , h fuhvfhqwh hp k/^4<h/ sruwdqwr/

txdqwr phqrv fulyho iru r dqxqflr gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld/ pdlruhv ghyhudr vhu rv hihlwrv uhodflrqdgrv d sdvvlylgdgh1⁵³

#? @4U@ +iT*U@_Lh@ i @ ih_@ _i hL_|L

Frqwlqxduhprv vxsrqgr txh rv djhqwhv lqfruuhp hp xpd shugd txdgudwlfd sru qdr hvwduhp dgrwdqgr r suhfr rwlpr1 Dvvlp vhqgr/ d glqadplfd Uhsolfdgrud

bThLMEfc c ' 3 i TE3 ^i i U*@h@4i?|i UhitUi?|i i4

2fLt|h@hi4Lt ^i it|i @h}4i?|L |@4Mi4 i @*_L T@h@ Lt iui|Lt 4i_Lt ^i U@*U*@hi4Lt

@ ti}h

49

(17)

wrpd d vhjxlqwh irupd=

gn gw @

;A AA AA AA AA A? AA AA AA AA AA

=

n +4 n,

+4 d, w⁵ +4 d . nd, 5

5

sdud 3 w ?

n +4 n,

4 d

4 d . nd ⁵

5 w

5

vh ? sdud w

n +4 n,

w dnw

4 d . nd +4 d, 5 +4 d . nd,

vh

+4<,

Qrwh0vh txh/ frpr hqidwl}dgr dr qdo gd vxevhfdr dqwhulru/ d wd{d gh yduldfdr gd sursrufdr gh djhqwhv plrshv vh prglfd qr lqvwdqwh hp txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld sdud gh ghvlqdu1 Qdr kd vroxfdr dqdolwlfd sdud hvwd htxdfdr glihu0 hqfldo1 Dvvlp frpr qd sulphlud vhfdr/ xwlol}duhprv phwrgrv grv qxphulfrv sdud uhvroyah0od1 Qr hqwdqwr/ xp srqwr ghyh vhu qrwdgr= d wudmhwruld grv djhqwhv sdv0 vlyrv ydl vhu xpd ixqfdr gh h/ sruwdqwr/ vhud dohdwruld1 Gh pdqhlud dqdorjd/ r suhfr rwlpr h r qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv vdr ixqfdr gh n h 1 Iduhprv qd sur{lpd vxevhfdr d dqdolvh gr frpsruwdphqwr phglr gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv h gr sur0 gxwr gd hfrqrpld1 Lvwr fruuhvsrqgh d uhvroyhu +4<, frpr ixqfdr gh / vxevwlwxlu hvwd h{suhvvdr qr suhfr rwlpr h qr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv/ h wrpdu r ydoru hvshu0 dgr ghvwh xowlpr xwlol}dqgr d ixqfdr ghqvlgdgh gh 1 Hqwuhwdqwr/ frp r lqwxlwr gh loxvwudu d klsrwhvh gh txh rv hihlwrv gd sdvvlylgdgh vdr pdlruhv txdqgr d fuhglelolgdgh gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld h edl{d/ ydoh d shqd ghvfuhyhu r frpsru0 wdphqwr gr surgxwr sdud dojxpdv uhdol}dfrhv gh 1 Qrwh0vh txh r qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv whp d vhjxlqwh irupd=

s @

;A AA A? AA AA

=

+4 n4, su4. n4sq> vh 3 w ?

+4 n5, su5. n5sq> vh ? sdud w +4 n₄³, s³_u4. n₄³sq> vh

+53,

qr txdo lqgh{dprv d sursrufdr gh djhqwhv plrshv dr suhfr rwlpr txh uhjh d glqadplfd d fdgd lqvwdqwh gr whpsr1 Sdud xpd uhdol}dfdr hvshflfd gh / r +orjdulwlpr gr, surgxwr gd hfrqrpld srgh vhu h{suhvvr frpr d glihuhqfd hqwuh +48, h +53,/ lvwr h/

| @

;A AA AA AA AA

? AA AA AA AA A=

w w⁵

5 +4 n4, su4 n4sq sdud 3 w ? ⁵

5 .

4

w +4 n5, su5 n5sq vh ? sdud w

5 +4 n₄³, s³_u4 n34sq vh

+54,

4:

(18)

Fdofxodprv +qxphulfdphqwh, d wudmhwruld gr surgxwr sdud gxdv uhdol}dfrhv gh = 3> 38 h 3> <81⁵⁴ Lvwr h/ dqdolvdprv grlv fdvrv1 Qr sulphlur/ d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld sdud gh ghvlqdu orjr dsrv r odqfdphqwr gr surjudpd gh hvwdel0 ol}dfdr1 Qr vhjxqgr fdvr/ d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld txdvh fxpsuh r dqxqfldgr1⁵⁵ Qrwh0vh txh rv hihlwrv gd sdvvlylgdgh vreuh r surgxwr vdr pxlwr pdlv shuvlvwhqwhv qr fdvr hp txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld uhwurfhgh udslgdphqwh + @ 3> 38/ jxud 9,1 Frpr vxjhulgr qd vhfdr dqwhulru/ hvwd pdlru shuvlvwahqfld ghfruuh gd shugd grv djhqwhv luudflrqdlv vhu phqru qhvwh fdvr/ uhvxowdqgr qxpd phqru yhorflgdgh gh frqyhuvdr1

Iljxuh 8=

Sdud @ 3> <8 +jxud 8,/ d shuvlvwahqfld grv hihlwrv dflpd phqflrqdgrv vdr phqruhv/ pdv d pdjqlwxgh gd shugd gh surgxwr h pdlru1 Lvwr srutxh d dxwrul0 gdgh prqhwduld lpsohphqwd sru xp orqjr shulrgr gh whpsr d srolwlfd uhvwulwlyd sru hod dqxqfldgd1 Frpr wrgrv rv djhqwhv gd hfrqrpld dmxvwdp vhxv suhfrv pdlv udslgdphqwh txh r frqgl}hqwh frp hvwd srolwlfd/ dv shugdv gh surgxwr vdr vljqlfdwlydv1

263i4Lt @ tTLtU@L _i ^i ' i _i ^i @ ThLTLhU@L ?U@* _i @}i?|it 4LTit i _i I

22V@*i ?L|@h î L U@tLt i4 î D ULhhitTL?_i4 @L 4L_i*L UL4 î Uhi_M*_@_i Tihui|@ _@ ti}?_@ tiU@L L4L T@h@ ' fc bDc Lt iui|Lt hi@t _@ _it?U@L t@L ?i}@|Ltc

|i4ti ^ic TLh 4 @h}4i?|L _i UL?|?_@_ic Lt iui|Lt |@4Mi4 tih@L ?i}@|Lt T@h@ ' Lh|@?|Lc L 4L_i*L _@ tiU@L @?|ihLh |@4Mi4 }ih@ hiUitt@L T@h@ L U@tL i4 ^i @ _it?@U@L

i *?i@h

4;

(19)

e t ,ui|Lt i_Lt _@ #it?@U@L

Xwlol}dqgr0vh +47,/ h idflo yhu txh d hvshudqfd gd wd{d gh fuhvflphqwr gr orjdulwlpr gr hvwrtxh gh prhgd h gdgr sru

Hp+w, @

;A AA

? AA A=

4 . h{s+kw, 4

k / 3 w ?

4 . h{s+k, 4

k / w A

+55,

lqwhjudqgr d h{suhvvdr dflpd/ whp0vh txh

Hp+w, @

;A AA

? AA A=

w w

k . 4

k⁵ 4

k⁵h{s+kw,/ 3 w ? 4

k⁵ . w w

k.h{s+k,

4

k⁵ 4 k. w

k

/ w A

+56,

Sru vxd yh}/ r ydoru hvshudgr gr qlyho jhudo gh suhfrv wrpd d vhjxlqwh irupd=

Hs @

;A AA AA AA AA AA AA AA A? AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA

= ] _w

3 +n5sq. +4 n5, su5, kh{s+kv, gv .

] ₄

w +n4sq. +4 n4, su4, kh{s+kv, gv/ sdud 3 w ? ]

3 ^n5sq. +4 n5, su5` kh{s+kv, gv .] ₄

^n³₄sq. +4 n4, s³_u4` kh{s+kv, gv/ sdud w A

+57,

R ydoru hvshudgr gr +orjdulwlpr gr, surgxwr h d glihuhqfd hqwuh dv h{suhvvrhv +56, h +57,1 D frpsdudfdr txh qrv lqwhuhvvd qhvwd vhfdr h r grv ydoruhv hvshudgrv gr surgxwr sdud glihuhqwhv judxv gh fuhglelolgdgh/ rx vhmd/ txhuhprv vdehu rv hihlwrv gd lqwhudfdr hqwuh fuhglelolgdgh lpshuihlwd h sdvvlylggh1 Fdofxodprv r ydoru hvshudgr gr surgxwr sdud grlv ydoruhv glvwlqwrv gh k= k @ 4 h k @ 53 +yhu jxud 9,1

Frpr vxjhuld d dqdolvh gd wudmhwruld gr surgxwr sdud glihuhqwhv uhdol}dfrhv gh w/ whp0vh txh/ txdqwr phqrv surydyho iru r uhwurfhvvr/ phqrv shuvlvwhqwhv vdr rv hihlwrv uhdlv gd sdvvlylgdgh/ frpr srgh vhu ylvwr qd jxud : +k @ 4,1 Hvwh hihlwr h h{solfdgr shor pdlru whpsr phglr hp txh r surjudpd gh hvwd0 elol}dfdr h ohydgr d fder/ r txh id} frp txh rv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv lqfruudp hp

4<

(20)

Iljxuh 9=

pdlruhv shugdv1 Qr hqwdqwr/ d pdjqlwxgh gd uhfhvvdr h pdlru/ srlv/ hp phgld/

d srolwlfd prqhwduld vhud pdlv uhvwulwlyd1 Wudwd0vh gh xp uhvxowdgr lqwhuhvvdqwh1 D dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld txh vh glvsrh d ghvlqdu whud txh lqfruuhu hp shugdv pdlruhv gr txh lqfruuhuld fdvr uhwurfhghvvh1 Qr hqwdqwr/ hod whud xp ehqhilflr=

d shugd gh surgxwr uhvxowdqwh gd ghvlqdfdr shuvlvwlud sru phqrv whpsr1

e L?U*t@L

Qd sulphlud vhfdr/ dsuhvhqwdprv r prghor hp txh d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld dqxqfld h hihwlyd r surjudpd gh hvwdelol}dfdr gh suhfrv +fuhglelolgdgh shuihlwd,1 Prvwudprv txh d h{lvwahqfld gh xpd shtxhqd sursrufdr gh djhqwhv sdvvlyr hp frqmxqfdr frp frpsohphwdulgdgh hvwudwhjlfd srgh jhudu vxevwdqfldo fxvwrv sdud d hvwdelol}dfdr1

Xp uhvxowdgr lqwhuhvvdqwh h txh r prghor suhyah phqru shuvlvwahqfld grv hihlwrv uhdlv hp vlwxdfrhv gh dowd lqdfdr/ srlv d wd{d gh ghvdsduhflphqwr grv djhqwhv sdvvlyrv h pdlru hp vlwxdfrhv gh dowd lqdfdr lqlfldo1 Hp rxwudv sdodyudv/ qrvvr prghor vxjhuh txh rv djhqwhv vh frrughqdp pdlv udslgdphqwh sdud r qryr htxloleulr hp vlwxdfrhv gh dowd lqdfdr1 Hvwh uhvxowdgr h vlplodu dr rewlgr sru Erqrpr h Fduydokr +4<<<,/ qxp prghor frp uljlgh} qrplqdo h uhjudv gh suhfrv hqgrjhqdv ghshqghqwhv gr whpsr1 R uhvxowdgr txh rewlyhprv vxjhuh txh qdr h fodur vh h pdlv idflo ghvlqdu d sduwlu gh xpd lqdfdr pdlv edl{d

53

(21)

Iljxuh :=

rx pdlv dowd⁵⁶1 Wxgr ghshqgh gdv suhihuahqfldv uhodwlydv gr _srolf|pdnhu% h gd vrflhgdgh qd frpsdudfdr gh xpd uhfhvvdr surixqgd h fxuwd frp xpd uhfhvvdr ohyh pdv ghprudgd1

Qd vhjxqgd vhfdr/ dsuhvhqwdprv r prghor frp glihuhqwhv wudmhwruldv sdud r hvwrtxh qrplqdo gh prhgd h frp d srvvlelolgdgh gh uhwurfhvvr sru sduwh gd dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld1 Sulphludphqwh/ sdud txdotxhu krul}rqwh gh ghvlqdfdr olqhdu shuihlwdphqwh fulyho qrvvr prghor jhud uhfhvvdr1 Hvwh uhvxowdgr h lpsru0 wdqwh srutxh r phvpr qdr h yhugdgh sdud prghorv frp uljlgh} qrplqdo1 Txdqgr d uljlgh} qrplqdo h ghshqghqwh gr whpsr/ Edoo +4<<7, prvwurx txh ghvlqdfrhv olqhduhv txh qdr vhmdp h{wuhpdphqwh udslgdv srghp jhudu h{sdqvrhv1 Sdud uhjudv ghshqghqwhv gr hvwdgr/ Dophlgd h Erqrpr +4<<<, prvwududp txh ghvlq0 dfrhv fulyhv qdr whp fxvwrv1 Hp vhjxqgr oxjdu whp0vh/ sdud ghvlqdfrhv frp srvvlelolgdgh gh uhwurfhvvr/ txh txdqwr phqrv surydyho iru r uhwurfhvvr phqrv shuvlvwhqwhv vhudr rv hihlwrv uhdlv/ pdv/ qr hqwdqwr/ pdlru vhud hp phgld d pdjqlwxgh ghvwhv hihlwrv1 Wdo prqrwrqlflgdgh h frqwudvwdqwh frp rv uhvxowdgrv rewlgrv sru Edoo +4<<8, sdud uhjudv gh suhfrv ghshqghqwhv gr whpsr/ rqgh wdqwr xp judx gh fuhglelolgdgh pxlwr edl{d rx pxlwr dowd hvwdydp dvvrfldgrv d fxvwrv shtxhqrv gh ghvlqdfdr1

Xp dydqfr qdwxudo ghvwh wudedokr frqvlvwh hp hvwhqghu r prghor sdud xpd vlwxdfdr hp txh d srvvlelolgdgh gh uhwurfhvvr irvvh hqgrjhqd1 Qrvvr prghor vxjhuh xpd frqh{dr lphgldwd hqwuh dsuhqgl}dgr hyroxflrqdulr h srvvlelolgdgh

2*@?U@h_ Ebb. t}ihi ^i i 4@t u@U* _it?@h @ T@h|h _i ?@ULit @*|@t _i_L @L 4i?Lh }h@ _i h}_i3 ?L4?@*

54

(22)

gh uhwurfhvvr= d klsrwhvh gh txh rv djhqwhv qdr dsuhqghp lqvwdqwdqhdphqwh xp qryr htxloleulr dsrv xp fkrtxh prqhwdulr id} frp txh r surjudpd gh hvwdel0 ol}dfdr jhuh shugd gh surgxwr1 Txdqwr pdlru d sursrufdr gh djhqwhv sdvvlyrv pdlruhv vhudr dv shugdv gh surgxwr h/ frpr frqvhtxahqfld/ pdlruhv rv lqfhqwlyrv sdud d dxwrulgdgh prqhwduld dfrprgdu hvwdv shugdv1 Phqrv fulyho ghyh vhu/

hqwdr/ r surjudpd gh hvwdelol}dfdr1

D +iuih i?U@t M*L}h@U@t

Dnhuor/ J1 h \1 O1 Mdqhw +4<;8d,/ _D Qhdu0Udwlrqdo Prgho ri wkh Exvl0 qhvv F|foh zlwk Zdjh dqg Sulfh Lqhuwld%/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 433 vxssohphqw= ;560;6;1

Dnhuor/ J1 h \1 O1 Mdqhw +4<;8e,/ _Fdq Vpdoo Ghyldwlrq iurp Udwlrqdo0 lw| Pdnh Vljqlfdqw Glhuhqfhv wr Hfrqrplf HtxloleuldB%/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz :8 +Vhswhpehu,= :3;0:541

Dophlgd/ K1 h P1 Erqrpr +4<<<,/ _Rswlpdo Vwdwh0Ghshqghqw Uxohv/ Fuhgl0 elolw|/ dqg Lqdwlrq Lqhuwld%/ Hqvdlrv HSJH qr1 67<1

Dpdwr/ M1 G1 h W1 Odxedfk1 +5333,/ _Uxoh0ri0Wkxpe Ehkdylru dqg Prqhwdu|

Srolf|%/ plphr/ ELV h IHG1

Edoo/ O1 +4<<4,/ _Wkh Jhqhvlv ri Lqdwlrq dqg wkh Frvwv ri Glvlvlqdwlrq%/

Mrxuqdo ri Prqh|/ Fuhglw dqg Edqnlqj/ 56= 76<07851

Edoo/ O1 +4<<7,/ _Fuhgleoh Glvlqdwlrq zlwk Vwdjjhuhg Sulfh Vhwwlqj%/ Dphu0 lfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz ;7 +Pdufk,= 5;505<31

Edoo/ O1 +4<<8,/ _Glvlqdwlrq zlwk Lpshuihfw Fuhglelolw|%/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqh0 wdu| Hfrqrplfv 68= 80561

Edoo/ O1 +4<<<,/ _Qhdu Udwlrqdolw| lq d Wzr Prqhwdu| Uhjlphv%/ plphr/

Mrkqv Krsnlqv Xqlyhuvlw|1

Eodqfkdug/ R1 h Q1 Nl|rwdnl +4<;:,/ _Prqrsrolvwlf Frpshwlwlrq dqg wkh Hhfwv ri Djuhjdwh Ghpdqg%/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz :: +Vhswhpehu,= 97:0 9991Erqrpr/ P1 +4<<5,/ G|qdplf Sulflqj Prghov/ fkdswhu 4/ Sk1G1 Glvvhuwdwlrq1 Sulqfhwrq Xqlyhuvlw|1

Erqrpr/ P1 h F1 Fduydokr +4<<<,/ _Hqgrjhqrxv Wlph0Ghshqghqw Uxohv/

dqg Lqdwlrq Lqhuwld%/ Hqvdlrv HSJH qr1 67;1

Frrshu/ U1 h D1 Mrkq +4<;;,/ _Frruglqdwlqj Frruglqdwlrq Idloxuhv lq Nh|0 qhvldq Prghov%/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 436 +Dxjxvw,= 77407961

Grz/ M1 h V1 Zhuodqj +4<<7,/ _Qdvk Htxloleulxp xqghu Nqljkwldq Xqfhu0 wdlqw|= Euhdnlqj grzq Edfnzdug Lqgxfwlrq%/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Wkhru| 97+5,=

63806571

Grz/ M1/ P1 K1 Vlprqvhq h V1 Zhuodqj +4<<6,/ _Nqljkwldq Udwlrqdo H{shf0 wdwlrqv/ Lqdwlrqdu| Lqhuwld dqg Prqh| Qhxwudolw|%/ plphr/ HSJH2IJY

Jloerd/ L1 +4<;:,/ _H{shfwhg Xwlolw| zlwk Sxuho| Vxemhfwlyh Qrq0Dgglwlyh Sulruv%/ Mrxuqdo ri Pdwkhpdwlfdo Hfrqrplfv 49=5:<06371

Jloerd/ L1 h G1 Vfkphlgohu +4<;<,/ _Pd{plq H{shfwhg Xwlolw| zlwk d Qrq0 Xqltxh Sulru%/ Mrxuqdo ri Pdwkhpdwlfdo Hfrqrplfv 4;=47404861

55

(23)

Ixghqehuj/ G1 h G1 Ohylqh +4<<;,/ Wkh Wkhru| ri Ohduqlqj lq Jdphv1 P1L1W1 Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh1

Urehuwv/ M1 +4<<:,/ _Lv Lqdwlrq Vwlfn|B%/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv 6<= 4:604<91

Vfkphlgohu/ G1 +4<;<,/ _Vxemhfwlyh Suredelolw| dqg H{shfwhg Xwlolw| Zlwk0 rxw Dgglwlylw|%/ Hfrqrphwulfd 8:= 8:408;:1

Vlprqvhq/ P1 K1 +4<;6,/ _Sulfh Vwdelol}dwlrq dqg Lqfrph Srolflhv= Wkhru|

dqg wkh Eud}loldq Fdvh Vwxg|%/ hp Gruqexvfk/ Uxglhu h Vlprqvhq/ Pdulr K1 Lqdwlrq/ Ghew dqg Lqgh{dwlrq1 P1L1W1 Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh1

Zhlexoo/ M1 Z1 +4<<9,/ Hyroxwlrqdu| Jdph Wkhru|1 P1L1W1 Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh1

56

Thi?_3@_L ,L*UL?@hLc W?ihU@ W?@UL?@h@